Looks like Russia is invading Ukraine now. I wonder how far this will go.
This is already 21th century. Territory expansion usually don’t end well.
Most people did not expect Putin to really launch the attacks (sending troops to recognise the separate states going independent) besides the earlier covet actions in East Ukraine fighting against Ukraine government forces.
The reason is you can invade and occupy the entire Ukraine but then so what. Ukraine gdp per cap is less than half of Russia. Are you going to do charity to lift them out of poverty? Russia can provide welfare to the small separatist region because they are small.
It is the same reason that The U.S. administration is trying to drop its global obligation in the world. It started in Obama era, accelerated in Trump administration and Biden is just doing the same thing. You just cannot run a global empire or being a world police with any hope of seeing any profit in that. You are just going to bleed the nation, bankrupting the country and sending body bags home getting involved in conflicts all over the world. We saw that in British empire and USSR.
Eventually I think it will end quickly not because of global pressure but simply because Russia’s weak economy does not allow her to carry on the ongoing military actions for too long and the worse nightmare is to pump into money into newly occupied territory to “build them”.
Putin’s official reason for the attack is Nato expansion undermines Russia’s security. I think that is a only 50 percent. I think another reason is actually with the exception in areas with strong Russian ties, the broad Eastern Europe is actually becoming more and more pro west, especially among the young people. This actually undermines his narrative of projecting Russia’s power and influnce abroad.
The reason is simple. Western Europe has higher living standard. You naturally want to live, move and associated with richer friends in the neighborhood. Better wages, better healthcare, better social safety net…”If we join them we gonna live like them”.
“If we join them we gonna live like them” is just another illusion by association. EU is held together because the only economic powerhouse Germany is still willing to pay to sustain it. The common market, common currency provide the ecosystem that made in German goods can be sold to all over Europe, and pushing German industrial standards all over the world. Once the incentive for the German to hold the big family together is gone, everything gonna fall apart. The German is not going to pay for Greece civil servants retire at age 45.
The problem with the Eastern European diplomatic and economic development mentality in general is that “they want to marry into a rich family without putting in the grind from poor to rich”. You cannot skip the sweat shop stages that Japan and Korea went through.
It is all linked together because they have such high (false hope) that joining the west will solve all the economic issues, they are paying a super high price in offending Russia which is not worth it.