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You Don't Need 100% Certainty To Do It

Anything related to matters of the mind

Edgar King

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Hey guys! I've recently started on the entrepreneurship route to never have to need to wear a suite and tie again, because I find them itchy by providing value and making the world a better place. But in doing so, I've come across many of my weaknesses and grown along the journey. I'm writing this, in case there are some of you like me who are also just starting out who want to be sure you've laid the foundations almost perfectly before you build on it.

I don't think you need too, you just need to aim for a lower bar of certainty like 70% or whatever suits you. For example, recently in trying to start a digital marketing agency I was so confused on what services I wanted to provide, and I'm almost always confused nowadays but I trudge on. Do I choose SEO or Web design? I checked this forum, and while they were some positive answers for web design, scrolling long enough popped up some negative ones. So it was then it hit me, 'Just do the one that has at least a 70% certainty of greater success or interest rather than a 100%'. And I was like oh, "Web design might be more competitive for this niche, so I'll go with SEO".

In conclusion, don't spend too much time deciding when you don't need too. Find your routes, and if it's too hard to choose, go for the one that passes a 70% test. Well, hopefully that saves you a lot of time, like it did for me.
 
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DMNinja

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I was just about to log off for the day, and I noticed the title of your post. That led me to checking your (impressive) progress thread.

Then it got me thinking. Thinking of my years in R&D and how the concept of 95% certainty has (had?) become a part of my life. Although I arrived at a different epiphany (quoted below and in my mindset thread), I am curious to understand how YOUR epiphany served YOU. For although I am now aware of the issue, I am not moving the needle, like you do. And for that reason, I'd love to hear your opinion :)

A month and a half? It's been some time since I last posted! In short, the Consulting Work fell through, mostly because I misjudged the available need for it. Damn shame, but it is what it is. I also moved back to Cyprus, successfully defended (but not finished) my MSc thesis, and just getting my life in order now that I'm away from family again. Been doing some odd jobs to produce income, and I've been working on another endeavor. I still feel like I have no clear view of where I'm going and how to get there, but that leads me into this topic's theme:

We're not meant to operate only at 95% and above mastery. Life doesn't work based on mastery, but based on progress.

This could've come out better. What do I mean by this? In R&D (my field of work) we don't do anything unless we're almost 100% sure about the outcome. We read on already available work, theorize, find supporting work to back up our theories, we test and assess backwards.
Although this process might be how research is conducted, it is not how one would tackle life in general.

Can you imagine a baby not attempting to walk unless it were 95% and above certain it could? If it was viewing reference material (videos of people walking etc) for an inordinate amount of time and every time it expressed its wanting to test its ability to walk his supervisors (family in this case) responded with "You've not convinced me you'd be able to walk if you tried right now. Come back to me when you're able to convince me"

That baby would (most probably) not even be able to walk due to muscle atrophy by the time it were able to convince its parents it were able to walk. Sounds sad, right? This is precisely how R&D handles progress though.
I've been reading again "Principles by Ray Dalio" and there's a pertinent question posed within the book:

It's a transition from "I know I'm right" to "HOW DO I know I'm right". I gave it some thought, but although these two processes might seem similar, they are completely different. In the case of R&D, it's not about "I know I'm right", but rather "How do I make sure my SUPERVISOR is convinced?".

You don't get to interact with the failure state (or the success state). You only get to speculate about it. Thus, your actual progress towards mastery is stalled because you engage in motion, rather than action.



I'm glad to be back and be able to post again, and I hope you've found this post useful :)
 

Edgar King

Silver Contributor
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I was just about to log off for the day, and I noticed the title of your post. That led me to checking your (impressive) progress thread.

Then it got me thinking. Thinking of my years in R&D and how the concept of 95% certainty has (had?) become a part of my life. Although I arrived at a different epiphany (quoted below and in my mindset thread), I am curious to understand how YOUR epiphany served YOU. For although I am now aware of the issue, I am not moving the needle, like you do. And for that reason, I'd love to hear your opinion :)
Well for starters, I just want to do more than I think these days. To not be bombed by information paralysis. I think it's just very important to make a plan based on facts and evidence, add math to it and follow it. It makes doing the actions so much easier because you know what to do.

But, even knowing what to do, doesn't mean you will move forward. You just have to find a way to act upon your plan, and adjust as necessary. For me, that was writing up an accountability thread, so to me it's just like school, and I must work because others are observing me so I can't let them down.

Focus on the bone, rather than the meat. The meat are fluffy features that don't get you any closer to your goals, the bone is where real progress can be made. You'll know it's the bone, when it's even uncomfortable to think about. Use fear as your compass, and jump right in!

This has all led me to moving faster and failing faster than ever before XD

Don't worry, we'll get there together, it's not the needle that's falling, it's the fuel in your rocket that's charging.
 

dandy2902

New Contributor
May 12, 2021
22
7
Hey guys! I've recently started on the entrepreneurship route to never have to need to wear a suite and tie again, because I find them itchy by providing value and making the world a better place. But in doing so, I've come across many of my weaknesses and grown along the journey. I'm writing this, in case there are some of you like me who are also just starting out who want to be sure you've laid the foundations almost perfectly before you build on it.

I don't think you need too, you just need to aim for a lower bar of certainty like 70% or whatever suits you. For example, recently in trying to start a digital marketing agency I was so confused on what services I wanted to provide, and I'm almost always confused nowadays but I trudge on. Do I choose SEO or Web design? I checked this forum, and while they were some positive answers for web design, scrolling long enough popped up some negative ones. So it was then it hit me, 'Just do the one that has at least a 70% certainty of greater success or interest rather than a 100%'. And I was like oh, "Web design might be more competitive for this niche, so I'll go with SEO".

In conclusion, don't spend too much time deciding when you don't need too. Find your routes, and if it's too hard to choose, go for the one that passes a 70% test. Well, hopefully that saves you a lot of time, like it did for me.
Choose both SEO and design
 
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Edgar King

Silver Contributor
Read Fastlane!
Read Unscripted!
Speedway Pass
User Power
Value/Post Ratio
146%
May 29, 2021
547
801
Choose both SEO and designScreenshot 2021-06-18 at 4.40.37 PM.png
I'm currently following Sean Marshall's suggestions to provide 3 packages for the service. If I do that, would you recommend I combine SEO and website design into 3 distinct packages, or offer them separately?
 

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