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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

mguerra

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@James Fend @Timmy C @csalvato
Do you guys think we'll have another altseason with this next big bounce?

I've been reading from some people on twitter that after a BTC drops after a top, then it's a great time to buy alts, because they're likely to follow a dip. I've started to observe and confirm this pattern.

If this is true again, we're likely to have a pretty good shot at buying a great position in solid coins for spetacullar gains. From my observation, coins that are a good opportunity for at least 100%+ gains if entered in the dip:

- LTC
- NANO
- ADA
- XLM
etc..

These coins have at least 150%+ upside from the last 90 days ALONE. If you consider the ATH, the room for gains is even bigger.

But.. thoughts seems divided about the future of smaller altcoins now. I'm still reflecting on it.

What's you guys thoughts about it?
 

Timmy C

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@James Fend @Timmy C @csalvato
Do you guys think we'll have another altseason with this next big bounce?

I've been reading from some people on twitter that after a BTC drops after a top, then it's a great time to buy alts, because they're likely to follow a dip. I've started to observe and confirm this pattern.

If this is true again, we're likely to have a pretty good shot at buying a great position in solid coins for spetacullar gains. From my observation, coins that are a good opportunity for at least 100%+ gains if entered in the dip:

- LTC
- NANO
- ADA
- XLM
etc..

These coins have at least 150%+ upside from the last 90 days ALONE. If you consider the ATH, the room for gains is even bigger.

But.. thoughts seems divided about the future of smaller altcoins now. I'm still reflecting on it.

What's you guys thoughts about it?


We will have an alt season in my opinion yes.

Otherwise I wouldn't be positioned in some of them.

In regards to your coins. No one has any idea man.

Me personally, I would not hold on to them and plan on selling them at some point. I have already taken back my initial investment on my alts and now most of them are risk-free moonshots.

Altcoins dropped some 99% at the end of 2017, no guarantee they will get back to those highs, most won't. So keep in mind, what you put in alts can disappear overnight. Asses your risk tolerance, and study your countries tax code CAREFULLY.

Many crypto to crypto trades are taxable events. You can be left with a huge tax bill and no fiat to pay them, all the while your alts have evaporated into worthlessness.

I know what of mine are investments and what I am speculating on. It is best to have a long term time horizon in this market.

If you haven't invested in crypto before, you will most likely get eaten alive.

Just my thoughts.
 

James Fake

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Ended up touching $30.2k, and luck has been by my side as I caught something very nice to it. I'm hoping over the next 24 hours my entry is so low inside the long bottom green wick that it doesn't even get close to getting retested.

Anywho... $34,500 happened, didn't hold, and if this $30.2k holds, we should be green light for $45k (more likely $50k though). I suspect a slower (over 2-3 weeks) for it to crawly upwards and upwards to $45-50k.

Once that happens though... it's time to get out imo. Reduce exposure as a bigger pullback is to be fully expected after that. Once we survive that bigger pullback (which could be March/April) before we bottom from that... it will be green light and rockets away to $60k+ (late spring).

I've been reading from some people on twitter that after a BTC drops after a top, then it's a great time to buy alts, because they're likely to follow a dip. I've started to observe and confirm this pattern.

Yes, it is. Specifically; it's when Bitcoin pumps then pulls back to a strong support line and holds it. That's usually the Go light for the Alts as it deems it fairly safe that Bitcoin was not doing some blow off top.

I think only a select few will return to visit all time highs; the stronger ones from 2017. Eth, Xlm, Ltc, Ada, Eos.
 
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Cris1011

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Anywho... $34,500 happened, didn't hold, and if this $30.2k holds, we should be green light for $45k (more likely $50k

so I got a bit excited and bought at 40k, I am fairly new to this and didn't want to miss out since I missed the train last month at 18k. Is my best strategy to hodl now, and maybe buy some more now?
 

csalvato

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so I got a bit excited and bought at 40k, I am fairly new to this and didn't want to miss out since I missed the train last month at 18k. Is my best strategy to hodl now, and maybe buy some more now?
What percentage of your investable capital did you put in at 40k?
 

Cris1011

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Are you trying to play swings and make some fast cash or are you in a buy and hold mindset? This will impact when and how you should buy.
I was thinking holding but viewing how governments can react as it grows I am not so sure anymore (They cannot take it down but they can put up a fight). Plus hearing other arguments from wise financial advisers like buffet and munger talking about how it doesn't provide any value to the market and how it will end bad. So I am unsure for now, just feeling like I am losing lol. Sorry I know I am very inexperienced, my take last week before investing was that my saving is giving me >1% and bitcoin is grew 200% last year so why not put cash in.
 

csalvato

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I was thinking holding but viewing how governments can react as it grows I am not so sure anymore (They cannot take it down but they can put up a fight). Plus hearing other arguments from wise financial advisers like buffet and munger talking about how it doesn't provide any value to the market and how it will end bad. So I am unsure for now, just feeling like I am losing lol.


You're experiencing what the market calls FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). Some investors (like myself) learn to sense when they fear FUD. For me, when I feel like absolute shit is when I look at buying, because everyone else is, too, so it will likely soon rebound – barring some very impactful negative news, like BTC being hacked.

For example, this is how people got rich in the depression - they bought when everyone else panicked.

Note, this is not investment advice, just how I handle things personally.

You need to first decide your strategy and how long you want to be in this game.

Are you a buy and hold investor that believes BTC will be a raging success and rule the world? Or do you view this as a way to learn how to trade and be a day or swing trader, timing local maxes and minimums to buy and sell quickly?

These are two very different strategies, and people get in trouble when they conflate them.

You need to decide which camp you're in. Do some research today to figure out which camp you're in, then come back here and let us know where you're at.

Until then, I'd advise you either pull your investment or just "let it ride" and forget about it. That will depend on how much losing this entire investment would keep you up at night (aka your risk tolerance)
 
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James Fake

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so I got a bit excited and bought at 40k, I am fairly new to this and didn't want to miss out since I missed the train last month at 18k. Is my best strategy to hodl now, and maybe buy some more now?

Yes, at this point, we are way too close to a bottom to sell now. The smart move would be to buy more at this level.

We may go up to $36k or so, and might come back down to retest the prices we are at now. If that does or doesn't happen; we'll be back and well above your $40k entry in a matter of 2-3 weeks.
 

csalvato

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Cris1011

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As a young college student, that's probably what I would do. At a young age, you can tolerate a huge amount of risk.
Yeah I am 20 studying engineering in Texas.

Risk tolerance should be high but at the same time I don't want to lose money on investments.
 

mguerra

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We will have an alt season in my opinion yes.

Otherwise I wouldn't be positioned in some of them.

In regards to your coins. No one has any idea man.

Me personally, I would not hold on to them and plan on selling them at some point. I have already taken back my initial investment on my alts and now most of them are risk-free moonshots.

Altcoins dropped some 99% at the end of 2017, no guarantee they will get back to those highs, most won't. So keep in mind, what you put in alts can disappear overnight. Asses your risk tolerance, and study your countries tax code CAREFULLY.

Many crypto to crypto trades are taxable events. You can be left with a huge tax bill and no fiat to pay them, all the while your alts have evaporated into worthlessness.

I know what of mine are investments and what I am speculating on. It is best to have a long term time horizon in this market.

If you haven't invested in crypto before, you will most likely get eaten alive.

Just my thoughts.

Thanks for the tip on taxes brother. It's much appreciated.

Ended up touching $30.2k, and luck has been by my side as I caught something very nice to it. I'm hoping over the next 24 hours my entry is so low inside the long bottom green wick that it doesn't even get close to getting retested.

Anywho... $34,500 happened, didn't hold, and if this $30.2k holds, we should be green light for $45k (more likely $50k though). I suspect a slower (over 2-3 weeks) for it to crawly upwards and upwards to $45-50k.

Once that happens though... it's time to get out imo. Reduce exposure as a bigger pullback is to be fully expected after that. Once we survive that bigger pullback (which could be March/April) before we bottom from that... it will be green light and rockets away to $60k+ (late spring).



Yes, it is. Specifically; it's when Bitcoin pumps then pulls back to a strong support line and holds it. That's usually the Go light for the Alts as it deems it fairly safe that Bitcoin was not doing some blow off top.

I think only a select few will return to visit all time highs; the stronger ones from 2017. Eth, Xlm, Ltc, Ada, Eos.

Thanks my man. I'm sticking to the stronger ones this time too.

Lets see how this unfolds.
 
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Sethamus

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Very limited options (Buy or Sell) on Coinbase. If buying for the long term and not looking to get in and out without having to watch daily then coinbase would work.

Consider another option if you are going to try and play these swings that are being talked about(exchanges that offer stop loss orders, limit orders, etc).
Like @csalvato mentioned, you need to decide what type you are.
 

MTF

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The average confirmation time for a Bitcoin transaction was 12.74 minutes in October 2020. The effect of the longer transaction time may not be an issue for cryptocurrency speculators, but it may make Bitcoin an unattractive medium of exchange.

source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:

Nick Szabo: The first layer is the blockchain itself; the Bitcoin we call the Capital B blockchain doing the secure transactions and the ones you can do from Albania to Zimbabwe without a trusted third party going through the blockchain. The second layer and the ability to grow the transactions per second on that is very limited. You can grow the value per transaction quite substantially, but the ability to grow transactions for the second is limited because those have a certain size and you have to make copies of them around it and so forth.

Tim Ferriss: I see, so the second layer would be for the coffee or the pizza.

Nick Szabo: Yeah. And so as this grows, as more and more people start using this, they’re competing for that limited block space and the fees are going up. So if you want to have a up of coffee without having to pay as much fee as you paid for the coffee, in two or three or four years from now you’re going to have to use one of these side chain or what I call peripheral financial networks that it’s collateralized on the blockchain. It’s almost as trust minimized as the blockchain itself but it’s for lower value transactions that only periodically settle on the blockchain.

So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?
 

maverick

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?
Some very good questions.

I believe Ethereum will serve as the foundation on which these innovations will be built. A new token could arise that serves the needs of payment providers (such as Visa/Mastercard). Using roll-ups and eventually Ethereum 2.0 will yield enough txs per second.
 

Kevin88660

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?
The world would probably transit to an asset backed currency.

The Dollar replaced Sterling when Old Europe lost most of their gold to U.S. fighting two world wars.

When Uncle Sam got stuck in Vietnam war and post war spending deficit the gold backing was removed. Kissinger reached a deal with the Saudi to allow them to jack up the price of oil without retaliation, in return they use dollar oil payment.

Oil is too small a market to back the dollar today. Today fiat is backed by debt and liability management worldwide. As long as treasuries bills can pay the interest and dollar can be used to pay down liabilities (rental, debt interest) people will continue to hold. Of course nations are more skeptical of the dollar these days and hold a lot less than necessary.

It is a fragile system because U.S. needs to be in perpetual debt and consumption to send out the money oversea to facilitate global use. This creates an unsustainable debt bubble that leads to either bankruptcy or hyperinflation. Once U.S. fail to service the debt other nations will dump the dollar. Once U.S. inflate too much other nations will also dump the dollar.

If the system gets broken people around tbe world will be much more skeptical towards something that isn't backed by anything. The prerequisite to running a “scam like” system is being honest for the first 20-30 years until everyone trusts you and there isnt any better alternative.

As for crypto there is still an accessibility ceiling. Crypto is still a geek’s toy for men under 40. It can still grow 50 times within this market but there is a roof to prevent it getting further adoption. Most of the money and assets are in the hands of boomers generation and this is the generation that still struggle with traditional online banking.
 
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maverick

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Don't necessarily agree with the above. The main reason for USD (or any other currency) to be asset-backed is to enable governments to print money when they need to e.g. using it to control inflation/deflation levels OR funding a war on terrorism.

In theory, this could be substituted by a cryptocurrency. Issuing more when needed, using it to control inflation/deflation etc.

The main thing that is currently stopping this is that people are being paid in USD. This can also be substituted though.
 

Timmy C

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?


Well in my view Bitcoin is already far superior to gold and should easily eclipse it's market cap, so it isn't much of a risk the way I see it. And yes, bitcoin can still become something more than gold.

Like anything, you hold other assets. It's not like my entire net worth is in this asset class.

I also take profits and diversify them into other assets and or stack the cash in my bank account.
 

Timmy C

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?

People also make a common mistake in interpreting all of these assets as trying to be a currency. It's understandable given the name ''cryptocurrency''.

Many are tackling supply chain issues and identifying counterfeit goods.
 
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Timmy C

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Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?

Well, let's look at Venezuela, shall we.

If your government-backed currency was getting devalued at such a rate as this. Would you care that Bitcoin was slow? probably not as your buying power still remains.

Would you care that payments were expensive? Nope, that expense is well worth the cost.

Even if Bitcoin or litecoin isn't ready, it's still better.
 
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Timmy C

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This is a pretty cool fact:

The first-ever Bitcoin block, known as the Genesis block, also contained a message. This was, "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks."

From Satoshi Nakamoto.
 

Timmy C

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Does anyone else not agree that the lightning network is already amazing and fast?
Looks like Bitcoin has already solved the scale issue most likely.
 
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Kevin88660

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Well, let's look at Venezuela, shall we.

If your government-backed currency was getting devalued at such a rate as this. Would you care that Bitcoin was slow? probably not as your buying power still remains.

Would you care that payments were expensive? Nope, that expense is well worth the cost.

Even if Bitcoin or litecoin isn't ready, it's still better.
A few years back it is true.

But stablecoin could be eating the lunch. Those living in Venezuela can hold crypto backed by US dollar.
 

Frinys

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Does anyone else not agree that the lightning network is already amazing and fast?
Looks like Bitcoin has already solved the scale issue most likely.
I agree. The lightning network is amazing and fast. But it's overly complex and much more prone to double-spend attacks compared to Bitcoin.

I rather think that the future for Bitcoin is to act as a security layer for second layers, like the Omni layer and VeriBlock's Proof-of-Proof protocol.
 

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