- Thread starter
- #31
randallg99
Bronze Contributor
I am starting to enjoy my public journal.... maybe I should make a blog...
musings came to mind while driving with the family today ...
anyway, follow this-
1. data shows every spring has an increase in homes-for-sale inventory and it jumps approx 20%
2. recent loan tightening standards have eliminated the marginal buyers from the
marketplace. This is the $64k question: what percentage of buyers are now removed from the market just because of the recent tightening standards? My reasonable guess: 20%
3. highest rate of ARM re-sets are scheduled for 2Q 08... question here is: how many of them have rates frozen for five years as mandated by recent legislation? My guess: not enough, but I don't have this data.
summary: 20% more inventory, 20% less buyers, and more desperate sellers. If this plays out, then we will continue to see SIGNIFICANT drops in real estate prices through summer 08.
my devil's advocate is telling myself that job creation and wages are stable in conjunction with people able to carry mortgages higher than they are able to with credit card and other credit.... but this is a lot less likely.
musings came to mind while driving with the family today ...
anyway, follow this-
1. data shows every spring has an increase in homes-for-sale inventory and it jumps approx 20%
2. recent loan tightening standards have eliminated the marginal buyers from the
marketplace. This is the $64k question: what percentage of buyers are now removed from the market just because of the recent tightening standards? My reasonable guess: 20%
3. highest rate of ARM re-sets are scheduled for 2Q 08... question here is: how many of them have rates frozen for five years as mandated by recent legislation? My guess: not enough, but I don't have this data.
summary: 20% more inventory, 20% less buyers, and more desperate sellers. If this plays out, then we will continue to see SIGNIFICANT drops in real estate prices through summer 08.
my devil's advocate is telling myself that job creation and wages are stable in conjunction with people able to carry mortgages higher than they are able to with credit card and other credit.... but this is a lot less likely.
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