This scares the hell out of me !

[Cat Man Du]

I belong to a landlord forum and just read a posting that they are now seeing families begging on the streets. Shelters are full in some cities. They said that this is the first time they have seen things this bad with children now begging on our streets. This is America - what is happening to our country? Has anyone else observed this in their towns? I am usually very optimistic and view these times to *** buy - buy - but, but now am concerned. :huh2:

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

As long as they keep penalizing business, it will continue. There is no incentive for job creation and entrepreneurs like me are sitting on the sidelines.

I haven't seen "begging" here in Phoenix but I know it is much worse than the media will have you believe ... heck, they're telling us the recession is over!! Bah! Its just starting folks! No jobs = No consumer spending = No earnings growth ... add in rampant government spending which needs more taxes to survive and you got a perfect prescription for continued doldrums for years.

 

[hatterasguy]

I'm still waiting for soup lines.

 

[Cat Man Du]

As long as they keep penalizing business, it will continue. There is no incentive for job creation and entrepreneurs like me are sitting on the sidelines.

I haven't seen "begging" here in Phoenix but I know it is much worse than the media will have you believe ... heck, they're telling us the recession is over!! Bah! Its just starting folks! No jobs = No consumer spending = No earnings growth ... add in rampant government spending which needs more taxes to survive and you got a perfect prescription for continued doldrums for years.

It seems that the recession is over and the DEPRESSION has begun! I, also, own my own business - Real Estate Brokerage - and see that the MLS sales force is 1/2 of what it was last year. The agents weren't let go, but just couldn't make a living. Some of the counties here in south Florida are imposing a 5% pay cut in order to save jobs, but it takes 20 employees to save 1 job. Normal attrition in the job force - retirement - death, just has that position eliminated rather then replaced. While rentals will continue to cash flow, because of the foreclosure prices, we will face the - jobless tenants - and what do we do then? :smx4:

 

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[Russ H]

It seems that the recession is over and the DEPRESSION has begun! I, also, own my own business - Real Estate Brokerage - and see that the MLS sales force is 1/2 of what it was last year. The agents weren't let go, but just couldn't make a living. (south Florida) :smx4:

No offense, Cat Man Du-- but there were a LOT of folks in RE in south FL that were either "jump ins" (riding the wave) or hobbyists.

How may cycles have you been through? CA RE has seen lots of ups and downs-- this one is not that different-- only difference is run up was bigger (percentage wise), and loans were looser.

So we have bigger reductions (dollarwise and percentagewise), and more REOs.

-Russ H.

 

[WheelsRCool]

Wow, I didn't know there were families out begging, is it really that bad...?

 

[Russ H]

I belong to a landlord forum and just read a posting that they are now seeing families begging on the streets. They said that this is the first time they have seen things this bad with children now begging on our streets. This is America - what is happening to our country? Has anyone else observed this in their towns? I am usually very optimistic and view these times to *** buy - buy - but, but now am concerned. :huh2:

Kids get picked up by social services when this happens-- THAT is why you've never seen it before.

And social services will also pick up these kids.

Yes, you will hear stories about "the system is overloaded". But you hear those all the time. In Northern CA (esp San Francisco), shelters were full/at capacity during the crazy "me" 80s, the high-tech boom 90s, and in the run up of the RE boom.

So I guess it comes down to what you want to look at.

Or, how you want to look at it.

-Russ H.

 

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[Cat Man Du]

No offense, Cat Man Du-- but there were a LOT of folks in RE in south FL that were either "jump ins" (riding the wave) or hobbyists.

How may cycles have you been through? CA RE has seen lots of ups and downs-- this one is not that different-- only difference is run up was bigger (percentage wise), and loans were looser.

So we have bigger reductions (dollarwise and percentagewise), and more REOs.

-Russ H.

Yes! There were a lot of non-professionals that bought real estate. Those are the properties that I'm buying right now. Also, I lived in South CA for many years and saw those prices go out of sight - only to adjust back to "normal" whatever that is. My concern is the folks that were middle class - homeowners - who now are at the bottom and sometimes it's not their fault. I hope that you are right regarding the children - only time will tell! :smxE:

 

[Russ H]

I, also, own my own business - Real Estate Brokerage - and see that the MLS sales force is 1/2 of what it was last year. The agents weren't let go, but just couldn't make a living. (south Florida)

.

. . there were a LOT of folks in RE in south FL that were either "jump ins" (riding the wave) or hobbyists.

How may cycles have you been through? CA RE has seen lots of ups and downs-- this one is not that different-- only difference is run up was bigger (percentage wise), and loans were looser.

So we have bigger reductions (dollarwise and percentagewise), and more REOs.

Yes! There were a lot of non-professionals that bought real estate. Those are the properties that I'm buying right now. Also, I lived in South CA for many years and saw those prices go out of sight - only to adjust back to "normal" whatever that is. My concern is the folks that were middle class - homeowners - who now are at the bottom and sometimes it's not their fault. I hope that you are right regarding the children - only time will tell! :smxE:

Actually, I wasn't talking about buyers.

I was talking about agents. Your earlier post lamented that 1/2 of the agents were gone.

THOSE were the "jump ins" and hobbyists I was referring to.

-Russ H.

 

[Cat Man Du]

.





Actually, I wasn't talking about buyers.

I was talking about agents. Your earlier post lamented that 1/2 of the agents were gone.

THOSE were the "jump ins" and hobbyists I was referring to.

-Russ H.

Yes! Quite right :iagree:, but we lost some good ones along with them. It just seems that all of the professions have lost out. A large company in NY just terminated over a 100 lawyers.:smxE:

 

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[hatterasguy]

You should be glad that half the agents left, that means a bigger pie is left for you.


I'm the only new builder starting in my area that I know of, in 10 years when the old guys retire I'm going to be all alone. Or have a ton of experiance on any competition that comes in when the market rebounds. The fair weather guys that jump in when times are good don't know how to make money. You need to go through some hard times to learn that.


Things will turn around, have a little faith.

 

[Russ H]

A large company in NY just terminated over a 100 lawyers.:smxE:

And this is *bad* news?

(sorry-- to any attorneys out there-- I don't hate you-- I just don't like what you do for a living.)

Or rather, I don't like how litigious and entitlement-oriented modern US society has become.

-Russ H.

 

[Cat Man Du]

You should be glad that half the agents left, that means a bigger pie is left for you.


I'm the only new builder starting in my area that I know of, in 10 years when the old guys retire I'm going to be all alone. Or have a ton of experiance on any competition that comes in when the market rebounds. The fair weather guys that jump in when times are good don't know how to make money. You need to go through some hard times to learn that.


Things will turn around, have a little faith.

Being in the business for many, many years I have seen the bigger pie and the smaller pie due to competition. I'm the kind of guy that likes to see everyone do well. Ever notice how all of the real estate offices are lined up on the same road where you can walk from one to the other. That's the kind of a scenerio that I like. :banana:

 

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[Cat Man Du]

And this is *bad* news?

(sorry-- to any attorneys out there-- I don't hate you-- I just don't like what you do for a living.)

Or rather, I don't like how litigious and entitlement-oriented modern US society has become.

-Russ H.

Well -- the hardest fought battles that I have experienced have been with attorneys. However, they are a " necessary evil ".

Russ, you remember the Regan " trickle down economics " We are seeing this today, but in reverse.

I know a younger person that has a roommate. His roommate is an attorney - in good standing, not disbarred or inept. They both work at Wall Mart as regular employees -NOT in management. Here we have an educated, professional man who spent $$$ on education and now works for minimun wages. There are many others in this same boat today. This is scary as all of these people are now out of the market for large purchases. Remember, discretionary income, who has this today.

Let me ask you about your B&B - in years past how many " locals" came for 1 or 2 days - just as a treat? How many do you have today? Have you seen a difference?

I don't expect to see children begging in Napa's streets, but you must be seeing other indicators of our economy - what are they?

 

[Russ H]

I don't expect to see children begging in Napa's streets, but you must be seeing other indicators of our economy - what are they?

I see panhandlers every day. Cardboard signs that say "Homeless. Please Help. God Bless"

One of the most recent was a father (in his 60s) and his grown son (in his late 20s/early 30s). They were hitting up people in the parking lot of a restaurant. But not for long-- doing this is illegal, and they were asked to leave within minutes.

Different people behind those signs, but I've seen this every single year since I moved out to CA (in 1984).

I get panhandled wherever I am-- doesn't have to be at home. Paris, Dallas, Budapest. Even in small towns-- though there, it's considered better etiquette to ask for money for gas, or for cigarettes.

Best panhandle line I ever got was a guy who came up to me as I exited the Carnagie Deli in NY. He approached, and said, "Pardon me sir, but would you be interested in giving a donation to the United Negro Pizza Fund?" (and he smiled).

I laughed out loud, congratulated him on his creativity, and told him I wasn't going to give him money for pizza, but would be happy to share my sandwich with him. He graciously accepted.

Let me ask you about your B&B - in years past how many " locals" came for 1 or 2 days - just as a treat? How many do you have today? Have you seen a difference?

We do get some locals (who live within 3 miles of the inn) stay w/us for romantic getaways-- but typically very, very few.

Like many B&Bs, a significant chunk of our business is from "locals" who live 2 hours drive from our inn (there are millions and millions of people in this geographic region-- from Sacramento to San Jose, and all off the SF Bay area). In fact, the percentage of this type of stayer has increased this year-- my guess is that these folks are taking more vacays closer to home (where they don't fly out). This would also explain the decrease in out of state visitors (not huge, but probably 20% less).

We have had our least expensive rooms book out first, but that always happens.

And we have had more 1-night stays, but we've also seen a HUGE increase in 4 and 5 night stays this year.

I was checking our numbers last night, and, compared to last year, we have both higher occupancy (at the 9 room Inn) and overall higher income (counting the vacation rentals, one of which came online this year).

We have had to offer lower rates, and have dealt with less people booking months in advance. But we've adjusted to that. And stayed very full.

Note that I've said we have increased both overall occupancy and income for the year. This is a positive way of looking at it (which is how Sharon and I live our lives).

We could put the same data in a different light: That advance bookings are down, the overall average daily room rates are down, that we didn't "hit" our optimistic sales goals as we have in years past.

But while we look at all of those things, we don't dwell on them.

Our world view is not framed by shortcomings. Or bad news.

As I mentioned earlier-- a lot of this recession (or life in general) is how you choose to look at it. :banana:

-Russ H.

 

[Cat Man Du]

As I mentioned earlier-- a lot of this recession (or life in general) is how you choose to look at it.

-Russ H.

Thanks for your input Russ, You always are very detailed and thoughtful in your posts and I appreciate that.

I, also, am doing quite well personally as I just did 2 flips with no money out of pocket Ala RDPD. I tend to have a very narrowed, focused view of life as I'm not into TV or news, but every now and then I PEEK over the hedges and see what's going on in the outside world.

I wonder what others are seeing - Am I wrong???

Your quote above, while accurate, - does not apply to the person that was just laid-off. What about my friend that has the attorney roommate working at Wal-mart? Have you looked outside of your own personal world and assessed what is happening? Most of us on this forum, like yourself, always find ways to take advantage of whatever the economy gives us, but what of the 90% of our population that does not think as we do? Where are they in all of this? I'm optimistic in my views, but I can't stick my head in the sand and pretend that nothing is going on.

 

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[Niche]

Of course it's alarming. people who have worked all of their lives and depend on the day job are suddenly cut loose. Due to no fault of their own.

The scary thing is it could affect anyone. Yes, I know that the majority of us on this forum probably make a decent income online. But what happens in the real world will at some stage affect our businesses

My sympathy goes out to anyone caught in the wrath of this recession. The only thing we can do is help where we can

 

[Runum]

Due to my, uhm, experience, I have been on the other side of the fence several times. I have lost jobs due to layoffs with no plans. I have had major debts that I couldn't afford to pay off. I have gone to work many times not knowing if it would be my last day. I understand how it feels.

I like where I am at now. My kid and I are going to the ACDC concert tomorrow night and have good seats, courtesy of my tenants. While we are at the concert my tenants are worried about their income and jobs. Several are barely making it each month. I am working with my kid on choosing her college next year and I deal with people each day that are asking for more time to pay bills. I point the contrast out to my kid every chance I get.

The difference is focus, preparation, effective work, and some luck. I made choices many years ago to be proactive and focus on what I can control. I made investments and didn't speculate. I made gown up, responsible choices while I had the opportunity to make those choices.

Yeah it concerns me for the 90% of the population. I really have no answer for them. I don't think they would listen if I did have an answer though. They just want to be taken care of and to be able to work and watch TV.

 

[randallg99]

I could write a volume of books about the experiences I've endured this past year but let's face it: there are people who struggle even in the best of times. It just happens to be there are more people struggling more than normal.

 

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[hatterasguy]

Just remember that when its all over those of us who went through it and prevailed will come out far stronger and wiser.

This is what makes you appreciate the good times.

 

[Russ H]

As I mentioned earlier-- a lot of this recession (or life in general) is how you choose to look at it.

Thanks for your input Russ, You always are very detailed and thoughtful in your posts and I appreciate that.

I, also, am doing quite well personally as I just did 2 flips with no money out of pocket Ala RDPD. I tend to have a very narrowed, focused view of life as I'm not into TV or news, but every now and then I PEEK over the hedges and see what's going on in the outside world.

I wonder what others are seeing - Am I wrong???

Your quote above, while accurate, - does not apply to the person that was just laid-off.

What about my friend that has the attorney roommate working at Wal-mart?

Have you looked outside of your own personal world and assessed what is happening?

Most of us on this forum, like yourself, always find ways to take advantage of whatever the economy gives us, but what of the 90% of our population that does not think as we do? Where are they in all of this? I'm optimistic in my views, but I can't stick my head in the sand and pretend that nothing is going on.

You choose interesting words to describe your actions:

every now and then I PEEK over the hedges and see what's going on in the outside world.

I'm optimistic in my views, but I can't stick my head in the sand and pretend that nothing is going on.

So you're peeking over the hedges, but not sticking your head in the sand.

Have you looked outside of your own personal world and assessed what is happening?

To be clear:

We don't peek. Or "look outside our own personal world"

We're IN it.

We live it.

Every day.

We take the good with the bad. We see LOTS-- LOTS of bad.

And we adjust our PLAN to accommodate what's happening in the world.

This past 14 months, we've adjusted it nearly every week. Sometimes several times a day, as new information came in.

But as Runum says, we're not going to change the way other people think and what they do.

Your quote above, while accurate, - does not apply to the person that was just laid-off.

I would disagree.

When I was unemployed, and broke, and homeless, I didn't whine about it.

I chose to look at the world in a positive light.

And I got off my *ss and DID something about it.

Even in a town with 50,000 college students looking for a job.

I had one (or two). Both paid well.

There are a LOT of people suffering right now.

But suffering is fashionable right now. It's "hip" to be down and out-- and to complain/whine to others about how bad you've got it.

What about my friend that has the attorney roommate working at Wal-mart?

When I was going to U of Mich, there was a diner that had this in their window:

This is a high class joint.

All of our dishwashers have PhDs!

There are always students (and just graduated students) who have a hard time getting a job.

Makes sense, really.

Most schools never teach you how to get a job.

Is Walmart responsible for this?

Or a crappy economy?

Or even the school?

I don't think so.

-Russ H.

 

[randallg99]

while I can appreciate some peoples' ability to ignore the media and be able to stay afloat, the reality is that most people rely on the overall economy.....

many of us who are "S" or self employed are highly dependent on the economy at large for creating wealth. we need workers with paychecks, stable political environment, no fear of raising taxes, no burden of higher gov't debt looming over the average persons' head....

Those "I" or investors depend on liquidity to fund investments and to be able to sell the investments to others who also depend on available liquidity.

also those "W" or "E" workers/employees depend on insurance benefits, pay raises, lower taxes, etc that employers provide of which is diminishing due to higher costs not to mention higher unemployment.

this is not to say there aren't opportunities, but this downturn in the recent economy is historically much longer than in cycles past

....

regarding attorneys, it's no different from everyone else. they are highly dependent upon a stable or thriving economy to produce. I have refrained from calling my lawyers for every little question and resorted to writing some letters myself.

Bankruptcy lawyers are busy though
http://www.abiworld.org/statcharts/ConsumerDebt-Bankruptcy2008FINAL.pdf

 

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[Cat Man Du]

while I can appreciate some peoples' ability to ignore the media and be able to stay afloat, the reality is that most people rely on the overall economy.....

many of us who are "S" or self employed are highly dependent on the economy at large for creating wealth. we need workers with paychecks, stable political environment, no fear of raising taxes, no burden of higher gov't debt looming over the average persons' head....

Those "I" or investors depend on liquidity to fund investments and to be able to sell the investments to others who also depend on available liquidity.

also those "W" or "E" workers/employees depend on insurance benefits, pay raises, lower taxes, etc that employers provide of which is diminishing due to higher costs not to mention higher unemployment.

this is not to say there aren't opportunities, but this downturn in the recent economy is historically much longer than in cycles past

....

regarding attorneys, it's no different from everyone else. they are highly dependent upon a stable or thriving economy to produce. I have refrained from calling my lawyers for every little question and resorted to writing some letters myself.

Bankruptcy lawyers are busy though
http://www.abiworld.org/statcharts/ConsumerDebt-Bankruptcy2008FINAL.pdf

Thanks Randallg99 - You get it!!!:iagree:

 

[Cat Man Du]

while I can appreciate some peoples' ability to ignore the media and be able to stay afloat, the reality is that most people rely on the overall economy.....

many of us who are "S" or self employed are highly dependent on the economy at large for creating wealth. we need workers with paychecks, stable political environment, no fear of raising taxes, no burden of higher gov't debt looming over the average persons' head....

Those "I" or investors depend on liquidity to fund investments and to be able to sell the investments to others who also depend on available liquidity.

also those "W" or "E" workers/employees depend on insurance benefits, pay raises, lower taxes, etc that employers provide of which is diminishing due to higher costs not to mention higher unemployment.

this is not to say there aren't opportunities, but this downturn in the recent economy is historically much longer than in cycles past

....

regarding attorneys, it's no different from everyone else. they are highly dependent upon a stable or thriving economy to produce. I have refrained from calling my lawyers for every little question and resorted to writing some letters myself.

Bankruptcy lawyers are busy though
http://www.abiworld.org/statcharts/ConsumerDebt-Bankruptcy2008FINAL.pdf

Yeah it concerns me for the 90% of the population. I really have no answer for them. I don't think they would listen if I did have an answer though. They just want to be taken care of and to be able to work and watch TV.

Thanks Rumun - These are the people that I'm concerned about. We, fastlaners, are going to do better than the 90% because of our outlook, but WHAT are the 90% going to do and HOW will it affect us? :huh2:

 

[Cat Man Du]

Ahhh! RussH

Russ, I'm working in the same world as you - everyday, In fact I'm dealing with the downside - foreclosures - etc.

I do choose my words carefully as you say - When I PEEK over the hedges - I'm looking at our society as a whole. To use a quote from a few years ago " Let me make this perfectly clear" I am not asking WHAT you or other fastlaners are doing or going to do - or what other people should do.

Here are 3 senerios:

1. We have several IT members of this forum, they have stated that their income is maybe $30,000 less than a few years ago. + $30,000

2. The attorney that I have used as an example is a middle aged man who was downsized out the front door. Not a young student working to pay his college bills. His pay at Walmart is approx. $20,000 his old salary was maybe $70,000 + $50,000

3. I have several medical people in my family. One is a ER doctor. 3 years ago he made $325,000 a year. The hospitals changed how they do things and he the other ER docs now make $225,000 a year + $100,000

These are 3 people that now have lost $180,000 - Just 3 people. That $180,000 will not be spent - saved - invested or paid taxes on.

This will affect us - ALL of us.

Just read a article regarding Food Stamps. 50% of all children in the US will be on food stamps sometime before they are 21. 90% of black children will be on food stamps --- This is America. Something is wrong!

 

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[Runum]

Thanks Randallg99 - You get it!!!:iagree:

Oh I get it too. I also let it get to me sometimes. I have even posted my concerns on this forum before.

For me, it keeps coming down to focus. What do I choose to focus on? Do I choose to focus on what I can control or what I cannot control. I cannot control our government or policies. I cannot control employment. I can waste a ton of hours focusing on those issues though.

I can control my debt and risk. I can control my exposure to losses. I can control where my rental houses are located and where I aim for my clientele. I can choose which markets to work in and expand on. I can also have my drop-dead emergency plan in place as a security blanket.

:cheers:

 

[Cat Man Du]

Oh I get it too. I also let it get to me sometimes. I have even posted my concerns on this forum before.

For me, it keeps coming down to focus. What do I choose to focus on? Do I choose to focus on what I can control or what I cannot control. I cannot control our government or policies. I cannot control employment. I can waste a ton of hours focusing on those issues though.

I can control my debt and risk. I can control my exposure to losses. I can control where my rental houses are located and where I aim for my clientele. I can choose which markets to work in and expand on. I can also have my drop-dead emergency plan in place as a security blanket.

:cheers:

Tell me what the 90% will do !!

 

[Runum]

They will do what they do now. They will wait around for someone to tell them what to do. They will wait around for someone to give them something. If masses of them do not get what they need to survive they will become discontent and they will protest or riot. They will look for someone to show them the answers. 90% of them will not do anything different, fundamentally, than they do now.

They will still need food, clothing, and shelter and they will get it, somehow. They will still need a means to trade, currency or barter. They will still need someone to validate them, to make them feel needed or worthwhile. They will still need some outlet for their stress, ie entertainment. They will still need their pop news so they can focus their attention on something or someone else rather than improving their place in life.

 

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[kwerner]

Sadly, I think Runum hit the nail on the head on every point regarding what the 90% will do.

But I don't understand why Cat Man Du is so concerned about what the 90% are going to do. Like RussH and Runum have been trying to say, focus on what you can do.

 

[hatterasguy]

Tell me what the 90% will do !!

Work whatever job they can do for now until the economy turns around and they can get better jobs.