Your number 1 best stock pick right now?

[hakrjak]

I see a lot of negativity, and keeping money out of stocks here. Is anybody shorting the market through use of ETF's like "DOG", etc?

Some good ETF's for shorting the Euro also like DRR?

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

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[Rickson9]

I see a lot of negativity, and keeping money out of stocks here. Is anybody shorting the market through use of ETF's like "DOG", etc?

Just to clarify, I'm not out of stocks. My holdings can be found on my web site at Jim Chuong

I just haven't bought anything new in the last 2 years.

Best regards.

 

[MonTexan]

I see a lot of negativity, and keeping money out of stocks here. Is anybody shorting the market through use of ETF's like "DOG", etc?

Some good ETF's for shorting the Euro also like DRR?

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

Yes, I have made decent money lately in SDS - 2X leveraged short of the S&P500.

 

[hakrjak]

Thanks Jim, I like your strategy of owning companies with large inside ownership. Hard to find, but looks like you have picked some gems! BKE has definitely soaked me and my wife to the tune of $500 every time we walk in that store to buy jeans! haha

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

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[hakrjak]

Rickson -- What do you think of FOH? It's almost 3/4 owned by INSIDERS, and they've been buying feverishly, yet the stock remains under a buck... They know something?

- Hakrjak

 

[Jonleehacker]

Bought some Aug XLF puts at the close today. A trade on the shaky Greece situation and that despite the recent move up, I think the longer term downtrend is very strong.

 

[Rickson9]

Rickson -- What do you think of FOH? It's almost 3/4 owned by INSIDERS, and they've been buying feverishly, yet the stock remains under a buck... They know something?

Unfortunately FOH isn't big enough for me to invest in the business. I tend to like businesses that are at least $500m in size so they have the opportunity to show me at least 10 years of profitability behind them. This leads to the next problem that FOH doesn't make money yet.

Best regards

 

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[hakrjak]

Unfortunately FOH isn't big enough for me to invest in the business. I tend to like businesses that are at least $500m in size so they have the opportunity to show me at least 10 years of profitability behind them. This leads to the next problem that FOH doesn't make money yet.

Best regards

Why would a company like FOH (Or any retail stock) have such rabid INSIDERS buying, and be owned by 75% INSIDERS? Just trying to figure out how all this works. Only explanation I can see would be that they know earnings are coming at some point? Any other explanations? They just buying it up because it's cheap? Want to go private?

Thanks much for the insight -

- Hakrjak

 

[Rickson9]

There are a million reasons INSIDERS sell, but there is only one reason they buy.

 

[hakrjak]

There are a million reasons INSIDERS sell, but there is only one reason they buy.

That's all I needed to hear I grabbed a 1000 shares earlier for kicks... A tiny amount compared to the average position I took in other stocks I chose this week, figured $700 was a cheap bet for a potential exponential jump.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

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[365]

There are a million reasons INSIDERS sell, but there is only one reason they buy.

And they may still be wrong ;-)

 

[Rickson9]

And they may still be wrong ;-)

And that's the rub.

It's always best to make one's own determination on whether to get involved or not.

 

[Jill]

Big picture, I like foreign currency and real estate plays, as a hedge against the soon-to-tank USD. But since individual stocks tend to rise and fall with the "tide", I prefer to get involved other ways.

If I had to choose a stock today, it would be something in the Senior Living / Home Health sector. Obamacare makes me a little squeamish (as an investor), due to the uncertainty. However, one thing that is certain is that we (in the US in particular) are an aging population. There are a few in particular that I like but I would recommend your own due diligence. (That's the old Series 7 coming out in me!)

 

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[hakrjak]

I like real estate also.... I grabbed some GGP this week, because that looks to be a bargain. I've always wanted to own my own apartment complexes & strip malls, but never had the money to do so yet -- so for $5k I got a piece of the action through GGP at least, as rents continue to rise and renters go through the roof vs. owners! GGP seems to be blowing up with INSIDERS buying/holding too....

- Hakrjak

 

[RideHD]

I am not one to focus solely on one stock, but I am happy to throw one of my current favorites and why I like it. The stock is Polypore International (PPO). In short, they are in the chemical industry and make polymer-based membranes used in filtration and separation processes in the battery and healthcare markets.

Why I like them: The fundamentals are generally sound, institutional investors keep buying, and the technicals (charting data) are good although they did take a plunge (recovered now) during this correction. The chemical industry sector is doing well right now as well. The stock is still on a great run.

Why they have a strong future: Their membranes are in high demand in high capacity batteries, such as those used in hybrid and electric vehicles and the alternative energy storage fields. As for healthcare, demand won't exactly end there either. So I see a continued high demand for their products over the next decade, which should keep the fundamentals improving (see below).

Red flags to watch: 3yr EPS and 3yr sales growth rates aren't spectacular. The debt/equity ratio is 189%. If our economy fails to recover, this stock will suffer. Finally, the stock can be volatile in the shorter term, so be prepared for that.

DISCLAIMER: I own the stock, having purchased at $42.05/share. It is currently at $70.31/share with a ways to go I think.

BTW, I am NOT buying right now. I personally want to see some follow-through on the big bounce we had this past week in the markets before I put more money to work. I have about 50% of my portfolio in cash, and I am itching to put it to work but need to see confirmation first. All the best to you!

Jamie

 

[Rickson9]

PPO has a debt/equity of 172 and total liabilities of $1b, what are the consequences of this?

 

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[hakrjak]

I'm liking the looks of FO... The buyer of the now infamous "Skinnygirl Margarita"... Liquor store owning friends tell me they can't keep this stuff on the shelves, and it's selling like hot cakes. They haven't reported earnings since they bought the brand, so I'm guessing a big upside surprise at the end of July? Even if not, it seems like a nice safe dividend play.

 

[Rickson9]

FO has a debt/equity of 68 and over $4b in debt.

FO has profit margins around 7% and a 9% return on equity.

They pay out $200m a year to service their debt.

They have a 1.2% dividend yield.

 

[RideHD]

PPO has a debt/equity of 172 and total liabilities of $1b, what are the consequences of this?

As noted in my "red flags to watch" comment, this is something to keep an eye on. I am looking to see an improvement in their EPS and sales growth based upon what appears to be continued strong demand for their products. As you probably well know, if they can't improve the numbers, the market will react viciously and you want to be with them in exiting your position (especially when the institutional investors start heading for the door). Their are two reasons for this in my style of investing: 1) when institutional investors leave, they sell up to millions of shares, causing immense selling pressure on the stock (downward gaps/spirals/loss of price support); and 2) if the the company can't improve sales, they will likely introduce new preferred or common shares to raise paid-in capital, diluting the value of the shares, at least temporarily pushing down the stock price. I don't hang around through such scenarios, as you never know how long a recovery might take and there is always another stock moving!

All that said, I have a nice cushion with this one and am optimistic about it -- but NEVER "in love" with a stock or a company! Too many make that stupid mistake IMHO.

Curious to see what this pending earnings season shows us for PPO and others. I hope this answered your question satisfactorily.

Cheers,
Jamie

 

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[Rickson9]

Thanks! I don't sell so it's always interesting to get another individual's perspective!

Best regards

 

[hakrjak]

Thanks! I don't sell so it's always interesting to get another individual's perspective!

Best regards

I kind of like to hear this. Sounds like a very old-money type investment strategy. What if one of the companies you have in your portfolio takes a wrong turn and really gives you a bad taste, then would you sell? i.e. -- if the founders of BKE sold out their ownership, and new management takes the company in the wrong direction, and/or the company falls out of favor with the young and stylish?

- Hakrjak

 

[Rickson9]

I kind of like to hear this. Sounds like a very old-money type investment strategy. What if one of the companies you have in your portfolio takes a wrong turn and really gives you a bad taste, then would you sell? i.e. -- if the founders of BKE sold out their ownership, and new management takes the company in the wrong direction, and/or the company falls out of favor with the young and stylish?

You are correct. Conditions for sale would include:

1. Needing the money (ie: child's education, retirement, offset capital gains, etc.)
2. Significant reduction of INSIDERS ownership
3. Buyouts (King World bought by CBS/Viacom, Oakley bought by Luxottica, etc.)

With regards to a company falling out of favour with their key demographic - I didn't buy the company because I understood the fashion industry so I wouldn't be able to determine this trend beforehand.

If I was an expert at running a fashion-based apparel company, I would have built and run a fashion-based apparel company instead of hitching a ride on an entrepreneur who was talented it.

Best regards.

 

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[hakrjak]

FO has a debt/equity of 68 and over $4b in debt.

FO has profit margins around 7% and a 9% return on equity.

They pay out $200m a year to service their debt.

They have a 1.2% dividend yield.

Good call on this. I think the fundamentals aren't that great, and I may bail on it once I get a pop from the July earnings.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

[hakrjak]

I didn't want to wait, changed my mind... Just swapped my position in FO for a position in CBOU. It meets all my criteria for high INSIDERS ownership, and very low debt along with good growth potential. I see the coffee business coming back booming to McDonalds stock levels as soon as the economic recovery takes hold, and the signs are all out there that things are starting to get better....

 

[RideHD]

I didn't want to wait, changed my mind... Just swapped my position in FO for a position in CBOU. It meets all my criteria for high INSIDERS ownership, and very low debt along with good growth potential. I see the coffee business coming back booming to McDonalds stock levels as soon as the economic recovery takes hold, and the signs are all out there that things are starting to get better....

Coffee business...I have had great success (again) with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)! I have a very different investing style, though.

 

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[acrystal]

aapl is my favorite

 

[hakrjak]

aapl is my favorite

AAPL seems like a very financially healthy company. Zero debt, great revenue, great growth.

I think the company's high stock price is too dependent on having the latest and greatest gadgets that people will pay for regardless of economic conditions, etc.... I'm not convinced that after the Ipad and Ipod and Iphone markets are saturated they're going to have the next big thing after that.... Also, Steve Jobs is going to drop dead at some point and that is going to kill the stock, because they haven't proven that they have leadership in the pipe to take his place. They haven't proven they can do it without Jobs, because when he left the company before -- those were the darkest days in AAPL history!

- Hakrjak

 

[hakrjak]

How about a name like MGM?

It has some debt, sure... but most of that has got to be mortgages on it's big new casinos in Macau, etc... It's got HUGE INSIDERS ownership, which is a good sign. If the economy starts to roll again, Casino stocks should shoot the moon -- as they always go crazy when we get out of a recession.

At $10/share roughly, this could be a great value play? Just look at the differences between this stock and WYNN, and you don't see many except the stock price.

Thoughts?

- Hakrjak

[Edit: After some careful analysis, I like the financials of LVS much better, and it's got the same INSIDERS ownership figures.... Love that they are the top US Casino in Macau also!]

 

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[Rickson9]

I sleep very well knowing that my business partners are some of the wealthiest individuals around.

 

[snowbank]

They haven't proven they can do it without Jobs, because when he left the company before -- those were the darkest days in AAPL history!

dude, stop listening to what the media says about these things. you realize when they say that they're talking about 1 variable, and a sample size of 1, right?