Your 2022 Stock Market Predictions? Vote (Closed)

[MJ DeMarco]

Where will the 2022 stock market end up on Dec 31st, 2022?

Please vote your thoughts and feel free to comment.

For voting purposes, the stock market to predict is the Dow Jones Industrial Average...

On Dec 31st, 2021, it looks to close around 36,000

Where will it be on December 21st, 2022?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Please vote, these threads are always great to review a year later!

 

[jdm667]

45K+, but not because of any underlying fundamentals. The FED money printer will drive most of the gains, along with the FAANG companies.

 

[SharpeningBlade]

45K+, but not because of any underlying fundamentals. The FED money printer will drive most of the gains, along with the FAANG companies.

This could play out in many different ways for sure. The fed money printer will definitely have an effect on hyperinflation. But right after hyperinflation is usually the crash.

Tbh survival skills, getting to know farmers if possible, even owning farmland imo, is going to be great.

I think this whole situation going on is making us aware of the more fundamental aspects of economics and supply chains.

There's always ways to get wealthy, crisis or not, economic crash or not, as long as there are people there will be markets.

Let's just hope these experimental medicines don't have long term repercussions, because that will affect the economy in a huge way. Musk stated that he believes a recession will hit this year and has cashed out another billi from his stonks.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm game for whatever the economy does.

Let's get after it.

 

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[suvv]

I don’t know. I’m rather uneducated in this sector, so take my prediction with a grain of salt.
I’ve been hearing a lot lately about everything being at ATH. Probably because money printer at max speed, but I’m still betting a large dip market correction. Just my (uneducated, baseless) 2 cents.

 

[WestCoast]

I've been calling for a market correction for years now... and I've been wrong every single time.

That said - how can it not lose half its value at this point?
The fed will raise rates, cheap money will disappear, the government can't borrow anymore...

I just can't see anything but a 50% 'correction' - but again, I have a terrible track record here.


(This is why, incidentally, I have $000.00 invested in the stock market. I invest in companies I own - and bought two more this year)

 

[MJ DeMarco]

I've been calling for a market correction for years now... and I've been wrong every single time.

X10.

 

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[socaldude]

“Far more money has been lost by investors to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.” -Peter Lynch

 

[Matt33]

The question is.. when will the money printing lose it's ability to stop the inevitable coming correction?

 

[thechosen1]

The question is.. when will the money printing lose it's ability to stop the inevitable coming correction?

By the time we know the answer to that, we will have bigger problems. I like what @WestCoast is doing.

And intelligent investors - like the namesake book - will be OK since they go for cash flow and dividends in lieu of gambling on market-wide appreciation.

The same can be said for forced appreciation: much more reliable than going with the flow of the whole market.

 

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[Kak]

I am renewing my bet on a continued melt up. That money is going to lose value faster than equities. Thus, they'll go up in dollar terms. In purchasing power terms, probably not though.

Why anyone would rush to the dollar is beyond me. I would way rather have a share of stock in a productive company than the cash it represents.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

I locked in 25,000 - 29,999

...

reasoning: something along the lines of what Gundlach brings up these days. We saw an instantaneous bear market once the FED started tightening. Restarting QE was required for the meltup we see right now.

He bets that the FED will be aggressive (just 4 rate hikes would be considered aggressive), that we will see another bear market and that the FED will reverse again.

I don't think there will be a reversal. They might not even stop at 4 hikes. In my eyes their message to businesses was: you get one last chance to put on those extra winter pounds or you'll have a hard time with liquidity the next time around.

 

[MitchC]

Theres going to have to be a recession or something at some point but I don’t think it’s going to be this year, I think this year is going to be more of the same, more inflation, like a lot more, and higher stock prices, but maybe not a lot more due to people pulling out money they’ve had invested to spend.

People are (hopefully) going to be able to start spending all this money they’ve been piling up as travel and supply chain shortages settle down.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Nearly 1/2 way through the year and we're at 32850. (I voted 25-29K)

 

[Matt33]

Will there be a Black Monday-Black Tuesday this time around?

 

[Andreas Thiel]

I've started moving some money back from a government bonds fund (LU0006061385) into the NASDAQ (roughly a third, DE0005152623). Also changed the allocation for my recurring monthly investments to be more in stocks again. I think the odds of sideways trading and even of an upward trand have increased. The extreme selloff / shock is still in the cards as well, of course.

For me this was an interesting lesson regarding narratives. There is the narrative that because of the rising rates those funds with government bonds are complete rubbish because those low yields make them pretty much worthless.
And yeah, maybe to a certain degree such an effect is there and some of their assets have gotten slightly cheapter, but you need to put the effects into a context before you decide that it invalidates an option. Bonds are just less volatile overall, so they were not the worst place to be in.

 

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[Mhesh]

Please vote, these threads are always great to review a year later!

@MJ DeMarco
Due to the war in Russia and prediction of stock market, going down and feds raising interest. I’ve seen on the transportation business trucks brokers are down, prices rising is there possibly we might be going to recession.

 

[Matt33]

Here's my opinion on the situation..

Right now we're in "bull trap" soon we'll have "return to normal" for a lil, and then "fear, capitulation, despair"

I'm sitting on $200k SQQQ.. if return to "normal" happens, I'll put an additional $300k on SQQQ.

I'm only looking to hold my SQQQ position for 3 months max.

 

[Jeannen]

Here's my opinion on the situation..

Right now we're in "bull trap" soon we'll have "return to normal" for a lil, and then "fear, capitulation, despair"

I'm sitting on $200k SQQQ.. if return to "normal" happens, I'll put an additional $300k on SQQQ.

I'm only looking to hold my SQQQ position for 3 months max.

The NASDAQ already started to plunge past the "return to normal" tho

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

The NASDAQ already started to plunge past the "return to normal" tho

View attachment 43429

Kinda depends on the kind of momentum we have here. What is the mean that we'll eventually return to?


Here we have a 100 / 200 moving average with a month interval. Completely different from the week based one and in that case you could pretty much smooth out that little bounce we have seen.

 

[JasonR]

Theres going to have to be a recession or something at some point but I don’t think it’s going to be this year, I think this year is going to be more of the same, more inflation, like a lot more, and higher stock prices, but maybe not a lot more due to people pulling out money they’ve had invested to spend.

People are (hopefully) going to be able to start spending all this money they’ve been piling up as travel and supply chain shortages settle down.

What do you think now?

 

[MitchC]

What do you think now?

I think a year is a very long time and this is going to be a long painful one, not a year of fun, money printing and opening up like I thought.

Internet rates doubled in New Zealand already.

Australia has an election in 2 weeks. My prediction is ours double after the election.

That said I still think they’re going for a total societal and dollar collapse and that would be in line with more money printing, just not necessarily a higher stock market.

Ukraine is getting given money like candy. Food manufacturing facilities are being burned down everywhere you look. And China is still doing the longest and most insane lockdown I’ve ever seen.

There’s going to be massive shortages of everything and that’s going to hurt companies stock prices and people but the money printer is still going brrrr.

Who knows man, everything feels normal here in Australia and there’s so many good jobs going it’s crazy, not a sign of recession or people hurting at all yet.

Just enjoy the show I guess.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

DOW breaks below 30,000. (Intraday).

 

[Kak]

My melt up prediction seems to be shot up at this point.

Despite this, my seeking to win in real terms has still served me well. I bought big on BITO and ARKK puts and XOM calls. GLD has held up, and produced premium.

I got what I wanted out of ARKK, BITO and XOM faster than anticipated, and now I feel aimless. I closed the positions. Have a lot of money sidelined.

I “bought the dip” on AAPL and still lost 15%.

I’m no Paul Pelosi, but I’m pretty happy with my performance this year.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

10 people called it right, 11%. I voted for 29,000.

 

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