Your 2023 Stock Market Predictions?

[MJ DeMarco]

Currently at 33,000 ... where will we be at the end of 2023? Your reasons?

 

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[Robdavis]

I voted for broadly flat(32k - 35k). I am guessing that their will be global economic headwinds this year but if the DJIA companies manage to boost their profits a bit then maybe with profits up and sentiment down then the two effects will cancel each other out and we'll finish the year roughly where we started.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Chose 23-26,000
I posted graphs that show how equities usually respond to monetary policy changes with a huge delay and I expect recession indicators to become more and more apparent in the near future.

EPS estimates have already started trending downwards.

There might be some upwards phases early in the year. What I think will happen with interest rates is that the US might have to step in (in a controlled manner) and start a program to buy certain bonds to avert liquidity issues. People will get excited about early signs of a pivot, but eventually they'll realize that the FED only does the bare minimum ("Operation Twist" style) and high rates and possibly tightening in some form will continue.

The US and China are in an arm wrestling match that I assume won't find a conclusion in 2023.

Might take longer to play out and 23-26,000 is maybe too pessimistic, but then again, I still think we'll see the 2020 lows again at some point in the recession ... and then some. Not going to bet that will happen in 2023.

Edit: what gets me, though, is what the plan is regarding the debt spiral -

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562078782453792768

View: https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1562078782453792768
- 300 billion budgeted for interest expense, but the US owes 400 billion. Is is possible to kick that can and hyper-inflate the problem away in the future?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

As of right now, 12% of voters were correct.

 

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