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Virus and market predictions

Anything related to investing, including crypto
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Deleted78083

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We can form a picture of what is about to happen in the rest of the world from what happened in China.

They identified the virus end of December and the number of cases is now slowly declining. We can therefore expect a three months period of high number of virus cases/economic difficulties for countries that are now only discovering new cases, maybe more. Indeed, the measures they've taken in China were way more drastic than what they're currently doing in Europe, which makes me think that it is going to last longer here, and be more dramatic.

Furthermore, the stock market declined when China was hit. Now, it's the actual Western countries that are going to be hit. It's difficult not to believe the market is going to stabilize, or even, climb up in the next couple of months as the number of cases increase and governments take travel restrictions. They talk about cancelling the JO which will happen...in July. We may therefore be in for a looonnnggg bear market.

All of this to say that the expected financial correction may just happen over some months instead of an instantaneous crash Lehman's style. A bit like a bubble burst, but very slow.
 
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Kevin88660

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If you follow the Ray Dalio prediction, stocks market is not that sensitive to human death tollThe market will go through an emotional roller coastal but it will be okay.

Ray Dalio further added that it will be China and other developed countries that will come out okay, because they have the money and organization capacity to deal with it. China has less gdp per capita but it has a strong government that can mobilize resources quickly and enact drastic measures that other more democratic countries couldn’t.

It is the less developed places that we should worry about. They could be underreporting infection counts for not having the ability to track it at all.
 

P3HSB

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my theory is C0VlD-19 will last till around early 2021. Vaccines will still take around 2-6 months. During the fall time, there will be a 2nd wave of CV resurgence, then during winter time 3rd wave. How will this effect the US stock market? A supposedly 40-50% drop in SPY, but looks like FED just keep going BRRRRR

33605
 

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