Will we see an actual war with China?

[Odysseus M Jones]

No there won't be a war.
Why are low oil prices a problem?
Why do you want to see China subdued economically?
Who is 'we?'
You're in Germany but talking from a US standpoint.
Do you want a war for the sake of GDP?

I lived in Hong Kong when the west was paranoid about North Korea and the next world war was all over the news.
It was business as usual in Asia, no alarm bells, nothing.

You're halfway around the world and listen what the media feed you.
Don't believe everything you read.

Anyway, this is politics, taboo here.

 

[Digamma]

This thread is absolutely bizarre.

Taking internal Chinese propaganda at face value?

Taking any media reporting as if it was speaking to actual intentions of nation-states?

Are you guys taking the piss?

 

[PizzaOnTheRoof]

Want to say my peace before this thread gets locked.

Who knew the assassination of a single man would lead to a global war?

Who thought Nazi Germany would try and conquer the world?

A lot of people believe the “threat of communism” in the late 1900’s was blown out of proportion. Did that stop the Vietnam war? Should the Soviet Union have been left unchecked?

Things happen all of the time that we can’t exactly see the consequences of until they happen.

Nations that were once allies became enemies, and visa versa.

The world 100 years from now may look very different than the one we enjoy today.

Do I think a war with China would be absolutely stupid and dangerous for all of humanity? Yep.

Does that mean I think it’s impossible given human history and nature? Nope.

Trust but verify. Assume nothing. Make the best of today while you can.

 

[Fenom21]

No just that members keep their politics to their own countries.

German soldiers have served and died in both Afghanistan and Iraq since 2001, neither of which were 'German' wars/politics. A potential conflict between US and China would directly affect the German economy.

Again, you counter your own point.

OP should discuss whatever he wishes, as long as he's within forum rules.

It's ironic that you bash the MSM but are so eager to thought police others on an internet forum. Hilarious.

 

[Xeon]

We are in the middle of a trade war. Does anybody think we will see an actual war with China?

China in 2020 is not China in 1940. In 1940, a single US naval boat can sink the entire Chinese navy.

The US has never gone into a full-blown war with a nation the same size as it.
All her opponents in history are far smaller and poorer countries, like the Middle Eastern nations, Iraq, Vietnam. China is not Iraq. This is the same reason why the US never went into an all-out war with Russia, because it just means mutually-assured destruction.

But if the US does get into a real war with China, it'll not be just firing rockets at each other as one poster earlier mentioned. It'll escalate fast into a full-blown WW3, with nations taking sides.

In the worst scenario:

Five Eyes Alliance (CA, UK, AU, NZ) will join forces with USA. Pretty sure western Europe (Germany,Spain,France) and the Nordic nations (Finland, Denmark, Sweden) will back USA. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea will chimp in. Have a feeling India will as well.

On the other side, Russia should be siding China for obvious reasons. North Korea's role will be to fix Japan and South Korea. Pakistan probably will support China if India gets involved.
Majority of Middle East should be pro-China except for Israel. The countries in South America may or may not be with China.

The Balkan countries (Serbia, Romania, Greece, Bosnia....) would be neutral.
South-East Asia probably as well (though China might nuke us as we're letting US navy ships berth here....)

How else could China be subdued economically? As far as I know, think tanks have determined that a war with China must happen soon, before China gets too powerful.

1) China does not need to be subdued economically nor is it "The Enemy". They never had a history of aggression like the US did and prefer to be left alone. It's crazy how people are not looking at things from a more positive angle : How do you access China's market which has 1.4 billion people?
That's 4 times the size of the US population. Instead of taking it down, you should be thinking of ways to prosper with that.

2) The real "Enemy" are the ones sitting in Washington DC.

3) There is a lot of anti-China sentiments going around the world, especially in Western countries, because they see China as a sort of weird, demonic place which they cannot understand. The culture, the style of governance etc. There is a solution to this : after Covid19 has passed or the situation has gotten better, these guys need to step out from their soil, take a trip to China, have a vacation there, walk around, interact with the folks. They'll start to realize their own media has been feeding them distorted rubbish daily. And no, mainstream Chinese diet do not consist of eating bats and dogs. It is a very tiny minority. Most Chinese would puke if you offer them bat meat. There is a dish called "Southern fried rattlesnake" in the US. Does this mean it's a daily staple meal in the US?

4) One observation : China has been working hard INWARDS: pull its people out of poverty, improving her own infrastructure like transport, logistics, technology etc. On the other hand, the US seems to be more interested in building up her military, blaming other nations, shifting the focus to foreign issues, thus working hard OUTWARDS.

The way I see it, China will go all out to avoid any war with any country, because they spent decades of hard work to reach where they are today. Any war will throw them back to the 1900s period, which is the last thing they need now. Wars benefit no one (except maybe Washington DC).

The concept of war with China, unfortunately, seems to be a fantasy and wet dream of American hawks. I'm not a US citizen, but what America really needs now is a peace-loving President who can work together with China, though that is a naive thought.

Tldr; There will be no war with China except in Pompeo and his friends' daydreams.

 

[AgainstAllOdds]

I lived in Hong Kong when the west was paranoid about North Korea and the next world war was all over the news.
It was business as usual in Asia, no alarm bells, nothing.

Yeah, but this time it's the opposite.

I have Chinese friends asking me if a war will start. Meanwhile there's no American even considering this as an option.

I personally don't think a war will happen. The probability is next to zero.

But I do believe the trade war will continue and the intensity will increase. I also believe that China will start getting pressured from other countries. There's an incredible amount of anti-Chinese sentiment as a result of corona - whether they had anything to do with it is irrelevant.

 

[Fenom21]

You're German commenting on American politics. Why do people do this? Same way people comment on what's considered freedom of speech in the US when they have hate speech laws in their countries. Or the people that comment on gun violence in the US when they live in a country that bans guns.

This is such an asinine statement.

I kind of agree with the second part of your point when it comes to non Americans getting involved internal American affairs, although it's usually just voicing opinions and nothing more. If it bothers you that much, then don't engage with non Americans (ie get off the internet).

But a war with China affects the whole world. So it's everyone's business.

 

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[Digamma]

OMG so strange. I just don't like Europeans commenting on American politics that's it. The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

Even if the US actually had the potential to win a war against China and neutralize their nuclear weapons, Russia would interfere because they would know they're next in line.

The geopolitics in this thread get wackier with each page. Fantastic.

We are now in an alternate reality in which Western Europe is a dystopia, the USA is about to go on a rampage against everyone because nuclear holocausts raise the GDP, and Putin gets himself wrecked by NATO to save his beloved China.

I would get excited about the upcoming alien invasion, but if COVID has taught us anything, it's that even that would end up being boring.

 

[Fenom21]

OMG so strange. I just don't like Europeans commenting on American politics that's it. The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

Yes, I agree when it comes US internal affairs. I especially cringe when non Americans talk about things like enforcing gun control and race relations in the US.

But a potential conflict between the world's 2 main superpowers is not exclusively an American issue. It is very strange that you think so. I feel like I'm explaining 2+2 to a 5 year old.

 

[Noo]

The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

I am sensing a complex of superiority, not an "international issue Vs national issue" here (international vs national is 2+2 = 4, as someone said).

 

[AFMKelvin]

You're German commenting on American politics. Why do people do this? Same way people comment on what's considered freedom of speech in the US when they have hate speech laws in their countries. Or the people that comment on gun violence in the US when they live in a country that bans guns.

 

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[Fenom21]

Nope is because the views of people from other countries are twisted by the media. The believe whatever the media is talking about that's what's going on in the USA. For example this post a German guy is saying "we" but he doesn't even reside here. If he lived here he would know that no one even cares about those "war games" or the opinion of "think tanks."

He would know that more people are worried about the guy that got shot in Georgia, more worried about state re-openings and about the governor's attitudes of opening back again. No one is even talking about China here.

But they come here posting things about the USA from their point of view outside of the USA that's completely distorted by mainstream media.

The media has been covering all of the things you mentioned in much more detail/volume than the subject of an armed conflict with China. The topic OP brought up is mainly covered by the fringes (youtubers, independent journos, sensationalist media).

You're countering your own point here.

Also, the fake news is a meme all over the western world now. So it's a bit condescending of you to just assume anyone outside the US is some MSM mesmerised dumbass. You should have a look at twitter, it's mostly Americans peddling MSM news.

Lastly, even though I don't come on here for political discussion, on an entrepreneurial forum such this, I choose to think that most people here are smart enough to not blindly follow any form of media - regardless of its political leanings.

I'm happy to accept that politics/religion threads may be a waste of time on a forum such as this, but criticising people for discussing specific issues simply based on their location is silly.

TLDR you're acting as if TMF forum is some exclusive American cool club, it's not.

 

[AFMKelvin]

You're acting as though a US/China war is not a global topic, but simply American politics. Very strange.

OMG so strange. I just don't like Europeans commenting on American politics that's it. The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

 

[Deleted78083]

No. Thinking about it isn't even worth the time.

 

[AFMKelvin]

This is such an asinine statement.

I kind of agree with the second part of your point when it comes to non Americans getting involved internal American affairs, although it's usually just voicing opinions and nothing more. If it bothers you that much, then don't engage with non Americans (ie get off the internet).

But a war with China affects the whole world. So it's everyone's business.

Nope is because the views of people from other countries are twisted by the media. The believe whatever the media is talking about that's what's going on in the USA. For example this post a German guy is saying "we" but he doesn't even reside here. If he lived here he would know that no one even cares about those "war games" or the opinion of "think tanks."

He would know that more people are worried about the guy that got shot in Georgia, more worried about state re-openings and about the governor's attitudes of opening back again. No one is even talking about China here.

But they come here posting things about the USA from their point of view outside of the USA that's completely distorted by mainstream media.

 

[jpn]

Nope is because the views of people from other countries are twisted by the media. The believe whatever the media is talking about that's what's going on in the USA. For example this post a German guy is saying "we" but he doesn't even reside here. If he lived here he would know that no one even cares about those "war games" or the opinion of "think tanks."

He would know that more people are worried about the guy that got shot in Georgia, more worried about state re-openings and about the governor's attitudes of opening back again. No one is even talking about China here.

But they come here posting things about the USA from their point of view outside of the USA that's completely distorted by mainstream media.

I largely agree with you. Many outside the US overestimates how little most people in the US care/interact with government on the federal level.

Having said that, the OP isn't talking about what the average US citizen thinks. He's asking if there could be war between the US and China. This has nothing to do with what the average US citizen thinks about war right now. The opinion of the people of a country and the opinion of its government are not the same thing.

Besides, considering recent wars, I'd guess that creating a pre-text and public support for one with world affairs the way they stand would be simple enough.

 

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[jpn]

We are in the middle of a trade war. Does anybody think we will see an actual war with China?

No. A hot war with China cannot be won. There is no scenario imaginable where any nation gets out ahead in a war with China.

Unless...

Maybe. A few politicians may be able to get ahead, and if the system is so broken that the selfish decisions of a few can initiate a chain of events that cause a hot war, it could happen. But still, everyone would come out a poorer.

 

[Ing]

maybe some big politicians will send their cheap people to shoot each other, but for a nuclear war I think they are too cowardly/reasonable.

that I would say, if this was a political forum. Which is not.

 

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[OfWolfAndMan32]

War with China? Cyber war, perhaps (Or, perhaps China/US has already been engaging on that front for some time).

We live in the age of fourth generation warfare, not second (That's a William S. Lind reference).

If anything, China will see some major shifts in their relationships in the next few years. The fact that they are closely allied with Iran and downplayed to them about how harmful the virus could be, and then many big leaders have come down with it and some killed, shows that they're playing with fire.

Change won't happen from external factors, likely from internal ones as well as allied countries.

Think about the cause and effect of Chernobyl on the USSR. Two different situations, but ultimately it's not unlikely China's structure could change years following this pandemic.

 

[Bearcorp]

All very good points @Kevin88660, you forgot to mention China owning huge parcels of our farming land, commercial property, sea ports, an airport, hospitals..

 

[PizzaOnTheRoof]

No there won't be a war.
Why are low oil prices a problem?
Why do you want to see China subdued economically?
Who is 'we?'
You're in Germany but talking from a US standpoint.
Do you want a war for the sake of GDP?

I lived in Hong Kong when the west was paranoid about North Korea and the next world war was all over the news.
It was business as usual in Asia, no alarm bells, nothing.

You're halfway around the world and listen what the media feed you.
Don't believe everything you read.

Anyway, this is politics, taboo here.

As a Texan, low oil prices means millions of unemployed oil workers and a crashing of our state GDP.

It's a problem.

 

[Noo]

If the topic is a possibility of a war, every and each NATO country can and should give their opinion, once under the NATO Agreement if a NATO country is attacked, all NATO countries should defend that country (by other words, they're pushed into war if they want to make up to the agreement).
The same for the Chinese allies.
The same for every country that would be truly affected economically by this.

It's more than half of the world.

In other words, maybe a Crimea crisis between Russia and a country with "tight relations with some NATO countries", but not a NATO member (Ukraine), can be a discussion between Russia, Eastern Europe, some countries in Central and South Europe (not all), and some near-by Asian countries.

Most of the wars are like this. They "only" impact a significant part of a continent.
And most of the impact is simply economical and they need to send some troops. In the end, is relevant, but not that relevant to a lot of people.

But that wouldn't be the case in this war. Especially if you have like 50% of the GDP involved, or something similar.

You can think...oh well...let's not do it then - NATO doesn't matter.
That would be a big change for the world. Are you seeing the diplomatic implications of this? It would undermine the trust between much countries.

Well, I will certainly don't comment on this subject in particular, because I simply don't see a subject at all - I guess it's not practical to be worried about this scenario right now. It's too soon.
I just said this because I defend and I think it makes sense that everyone who wants to talk about this, should do it, regardless of the fact that it is European, Chinese, American, South American, or Russian.

 

[Odysseus M Jones]

I have Chinese friends asking me if a war will start. Meanwhile there's no American even considering this as an option.

Strange, because I've not heard anything & my partner's Chinese in touch with HK daily.
The feedback I have is the West is pushing for compensation for releasing the virus, but no war.
Are your friends in the mainland?

As a Texan, low oil prices means millions of unemployed oil workers and a crashing of our state GDP.

It's a problem.

I hear you & I'm not unsympathetic to the plight of Texans or anyone affected.
The UK lost its car industry, shipbuilding, rail, steel, coal, aerospace etc, millions of jobs & communities haven't recovered decades later.
Even the mid East is diversifying, Qatar has gone gas and tourism.
Still, we shouldn't go to war for economic reasons even though historically that's the main reason.

 

[100ToOne]

Abu Ghazaleh said:

There will be war but not full on WW3. It's more of a rocket attacks between each other started by the U.S, and the reason is because the US wants china to sit on one table and divide the control of power over the world and be clear on who runs what.

As of now, China isn't willing to sit down, it just aims to increase its economical power with no restriction, which the US won't take.

As someone already mentioned American think tanks believe this, and Abu Ghazaleh says it's before October.

 

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[Noo]

As of now, China isn't willing to sit down, it just aims to increase its economical power with no restriction, which the US won't take.

Well, be ready to have Europe on the "don't give a shit about China" mood, because Europe agreed to not invest a lot in manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment if China could supply all continent, and do it cheaply, and it didn't happen.
There were A LOT of donations, but I don't know yet if it was enough.

So, don't be surprised if the determinant factor of who will be the superpower will be who is more beneficial to Europe.

Some kind of negotiating and political endeavours can exist, but leaving Europe, Japan and Russia off the table on something like that seems media-hysteria to me. No one is the centre of the world.

 

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[jpn]

Abu Ghazaleh

Never heard of them. Who is this person, and why does their view on this matter? Googled it but didn't clarify much.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Nope is because the views of people from other countries are twisted by the media. The believe whatever the media is talking about that's what's going on in the USA. For example this post a German guy is saying "we" but he doesn't even reside here. If he lived here he would know that no one even cares about those "war games" or the opinion of "think tanks."

Maybe that is why I am asking!?

Did I state an opinion, or ask a question . I am just really worried because I can't come up with a more benign answer to the question "how else could this conflict play out?".

I am grateful to hear the opinions of people who can tell how likely or not it is that politicians could get a majority behind a war or not - if 10,000,000 jobs in the oil industry are lost.
The answer that nobody is currently even thinking about it is very comforting.

I am a little surprised that the question is considered laughable. I don't think "The Grand Chessboard" is Chinese propaganda ... but yes, didn't know politics are a nono. So I'll shut up.

 

[100ToOne]

Never heard of them. Who is this person, and why does their view on this matter? Googled it but didn't clarify much.

Talal Abu Ghazaleh*

Read his bio and see in what positions he held in his life. Also he currently advises middle eastern country's leadership on economical plans and issues. He also runs the one of the leading Intellectual Property in the world.

That's why I thought what he says matters.

 

[100ToOne]

How is asking others to keep politics to their own countries thought police? I'll believe a German speaking on German issues over an American speaking on German issues.

You're correct only if you're talking about internal affairs.

USA vs China is not internal affairs. It concerns the whole world. Especially business wise.

 

[Noo]

This is what I'm trying to point out. Foreigners get all their information from mainstream media corporations. Which are heavily funded by China. Don't trust USA's news. There's a reason Trump keeps calling them fake news. Go back and watch the news for the 2016 election. It was predicted that Trump would not even be nominated for the Republican party and than the polls said Trump would not win the election. Foreigners thin the news are real. They are not. They all have an agenda and their "polls" are fabricated.

lol
Foreigners don't get all their information from MSM. That's just the most ridiculous thing I've heard today.
Actually, we have the same problem America has with conspiracy theories and shit like that.
A lot of "foreigners" (including me) actually thought, at that time, that Trump would win.
Actually, from my group of friends, half of the people thought that. Shocking? I didn't trust the 90%> chance of victory of Hillary Clinton that was presented at that time. Wow, and I'm a foreigner.

Commentators are not news.
News are not facts.
Facts sometimes are just theoretical and don't work in practice.
Research sometimes has high-school mathematical errors, that only by peer-review are noticed, and people still believe research before the peer-review. (ew)
And there is also p-hacking...

So, if you want to throw out a lot of content, you can, and you should.
Even research from "Ivy League" colleges.

But more important than that...
you're not everyone.
News doesn't know if Trump will get reelected.
You don't know it also. Neither do I. We just believe things, at most.

I believe that Trump hurting China is a bad strategy. I don't know if it will cost its elections or not. I don't think about it. After I finish writing this, I will probably not think about Trump until a notification on this thread pops up. I am not worried about a WWIII. Apparently some media is talking stuff about war right now(they're always) - I didn't even know before this topic.

No one is better than anyone based on if someone gets informed on the news, or on youtube. It's how you read and think, not where.
Ideally, they should be complementary, if you have the time and the energy to have thoughtful thinking. There is good and bad content everywhere, some places are just better than others.

The point is: saying that is not a possibility because it's listed on MSM is just as bad as believing that something is a possibility because it's on Youtube.

If something is presented to yourself and has logic in it, you don't act like it's true, but you admit that is a possibility because you don't know everything. I admit that this is a possibility because it makes sense to me, it doesn't mean I am a Warren Buffet who reads all the daily newspapers every time he wakes up and that MSM is my religion.