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Where do you put your money now? Is real estate in a bubble? For you yes, for me no.

Anything related to investing, including crypto

biophase

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My friends and I are currently discussing all that's going on today. The ultimate question that always comes up is, where do you put your money today? Stocks, Crypto, Gold, Real Estate, Business, Cash?

I'm definitely a real estate guy when it comes to storing and preserving wealth. The same piece of real estate can be great for me and bad for you at the same time. I am here to today to show you why.

In 2008 I bought a new construction home in Phoenix, Arizona for $335k. I paid $70k down and got a regular loan.

In 2010, the market crashed and the house was worth $200k, I found a renter at market rate at $1700/mo, but my monthly payment was $2400. So I was -$700/mo in cashflow.

I did the math, even with a renter, I was going to be -$8400/year on a place that was -$135k to breakeven.

I calculated that if it took 10 years for this home to appreciate back to where I could breakeven, it would have to be worth $446k in 2019 in order for me to just BREAKEVEN. That would be -$84k in cashflow over 10 years, 6% realtor fee @ $27k to sell. This is also assuming that the home is always rented and nothing breaks. With this 10 year projection, I decided to let the home go into foreclosure in 2010.

Today, this home is worth around $660k.

If I would have kept the home and gone through the trouble of renting it for 10 years and held past its breakeven price in 2020 and sold it today, I would have a nice profit of around $150k. Instead I lost $70k and had a foreclosure on my record for 7 years.

So was this a bad investment? Yes, for me it was. Because of my financial situation at the time, 2010 BIOPHASE couldn't afford to carry -$8400/year cashflow, nor did I want to. I also couldn't pay off the mortgage either.

But for someone else, it may have been a great investment.

Imagine ALLCASHBILL buys this property in 2008 instead of me. He pays cash because he is looking for a place to invest and park his cash. So he pays $335k, and rents it out at $1700/mo. He cashflows +$1000/mo. or $12,000/yr. He sells in 2022 for $660k. So in the 14 years he has owned this property, he makes $468,000k, $168,000 on cashflow and $300k on appreciation.

What a great investment for him!

I made this post to show why the same house can be both a good or bad investment. It all depends on you!

I tell people that I just bought a home in Vegas last month and they say, real estate is in a bubble, don't buy, you are crazy. I ask them why. They give me all the data like current inflation numbers, interest rates rising, we are going into a recession. But what they don't understand is that I am now ALLCASHBILL and they might by 2010 BIOPHASE. We are in two totally different situations. So even though it's the same house, it might be the right buy for someone else but not for you.
 
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Real estate is not my strong suit, so take this comment with a LARGE grain of salt.


Everyone knows inflation is ravaging the US economy at this moment. If inflation continues to rise but the interest rates spike, leading to higher interest rates on mortgages, I would assume housing prices would fall. The reason is, that people can't afford to pay the higher monthly mortgages so housing prices would have to come down. If this situation were to happen, the people who "win" are the ALLCASHBILL players, as they are unaffected by the mortgage rates but can still afford to buy the homes that went down in price.

Of course, we are assuming the FEDS are willing to fight inflation in the above scenario.

For those ALLCASHBILL buyers, do you think it would be wiser to sit on the sidelines and hope the housing market takes a nosedive, or do you invest now as the future is uncertain and inflation can continue to push up home prices?
 

biophase

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Real estate is not my strong suit, so take this comment with a LARGE grain of salt.


Everyone knows inflation is ravaging the US economy at this moment. If inflation continues to rise but the interest rates spike, leading to higher interest rates on mortgages, I would assume housing prices would fall. The reason is, that people can't afford to pay the higher monthly mortgages so housing prices would have to come down. If this situation were to happen, the people who "win" are the ALLCASHBILL players, as they are unaffected by the mortgage rates but can still afford to buy the homes that went down in price.

Of course, we are assuming the FEDS are willing to fight inflation in the above scenario.

For those ALLCASHBILL buyers, do you think it would be wiser to sit on the sidelines and hope the housing market takes a nosedive, or do you invest now as the future is uncertain and inflation can continue to push up home prices?
ALLCASHBILL could have waited until the house was at $200k before purchasing it. But we all know that timing the market exactly is hard. Personally, I am buying stuff in good neighborhoods which will attract good renters.

The funny thing about raising rates and in effect lowering housing prices is that it just makes an average buyer purchase less home. Financially, their monthly payment stays exactly the same due to the higher interest rate, but the price of the home they bought is lower. But for the cash buyer, it helps them immensely because the home price just comes down. Rents usually stay the same, property taxes are lower, so it really helps ALLCASHBILL.

As for interest rates, I welcome the increase. Here's why, If I am looking at a $500k house. I would much rather the market be stagnant and be able to purchase it at $450k rather than overbid to buy the house for $550k.

I would rather pay $100k less and get a loan at 8% vs. pay $100k more and get a loan at 3%.

The 5% difference on a $400k loan is $20,000 a year in interest. In 5 years, I would be breakeven in this scenario, however the biggest benefit is that I would only owe $427k vs. $488k on the home.

In addition, I assume that interest rates won't be that high in a few years and I could refinance it. Or I could pay off the loan in a few years.

So higher interest rates actually are beneficial to me right now. However, when it comes time to sell my properties, I would hope for low interest rates.

I sold 3 properties in the last year. I have another just listed on the market yesterday.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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SPM_ENT

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In 2008 I bought a new construction home in Phoenix, Arizona for $335k. I paid $70k down and got a regular loan.

In 2010, the market crashed and the house was worth $200k, I found a renter at market rate at $1700/mo, but my monthly payment was $2400. So I was -$700/mo in cashflow.

I did the math, even with a renter, I was going to be -$8400/year on a place that was -$135k to breakeven.

I calculated that if it took 10 years for this home to appreciate back to where I could breakeven, it would have to be worth $446k in 2019 in order for me to just BREAKEVEN. That would be -$84k in cashflow over 10 years, 6% realtor fee @ $27k to sell. This is also assuming that the home is always rented and nothing breaks. With this 10 year projection, I decided to let the home go into foreclosure in 2010.

Today, this home is worth around $660k.

If I would have kept the home and gone through the trouble of renting it for 10 years and held past its breakeven price in 2020 and sold it today, I would have a nice profit of around $150k. Instead I lost $70k and had a foreclosure on my record for 7 years.

So was this a bad investment? Yes, for me it was. Because of my financial situation at the time, 2010 BIOPHASE couldn't afford to carry -$8400/year cashflow, nor did I want to. I also couldn't pay off the mortgage either.
Smart/Hard choice to make but sounds like you made the right one for you. I'm struggling to make a decision with the money I lost in crypto and the stock market in recent months to sell and cut loose or hold out for it to turn around.

I'm not "ALLCASHBILL" and I'm trying to leverage my money. I did grab two properties over the last two years and have about a 300% return (in equity) on my down payment so far. Newer-built homes, good tenants, and positive cash flow. If the market dips or drops I don't imagine it will go much lower than what I bought the houses for. Rents don't tend to drop so I feel good about the position I'm in on my current homes.

Because of my good fortune in timing my plan was to continue buying to transfer my money out of the stock market and into real estate. I'd rather have something I physically own and have control over. A month ago another opportunity came up and I was going to buy but the new interest rates brought the mortgage from what would have been 2k a few months ago to now 3k. The rents in the area I was buying won't cover that new spread so I passed on it.

The way I'm looking at it now is I will need to find a new area or wait until the home prices drop enough to reduce the monthly mortgage with the higher rates.

Overall if I can find places that have a good rental market and can cash flow $100 - $200/ a month after all expenses then I'll continue to buy. If I do buy at higher rates I will refinance if they drop again but won't count on it. Having said that I'm not looking as hard at the moment because rates and changing rapidly and the home prices haven't dropped much...yet. If prices drop enough I will look at increasing down payments or using all cash to make sure they cash flow. Not ideal but seems like the market we're headed for.
 

MTF

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Setting the goal to one day switch my username to ALLCASHFOX.

Start with your G-Wagon plates and let your transformation into an ALL CA$H Chad begin today.
 
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fastlane_dad

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Great post, and more so important then ever is you also gotta know YOURSELF and your personality.

I hate dealing with any sort of repairs on my OWN house, no matter how big or small. Just thinking about replacing a/c’s or plumbing gives me jitters of all kind. I can’t imagine if I had to make decisions or authorizations on dozens or so houses or more. And I understand you can ‘outsource’ all of that as well, but then at which point are we just in REIT or FUNDRISE category – just literally using cash to invest and sitting back to collect appreciation / dividend flow etc.

Sure, there are TONS of upside to actually owning the real estate, everything from using leverage, to being more in control - but for now it hasn’t crossed my mind more then twice and I’m not sure what will change my mind for the long run.

Otherwise, I plan to use the markets as my long term meal ticket to provide for me and my family for decades to come (now that I have a large enough pot to invest). I'm currently buying in at the ‘lows’ the same way I have been when it was at 'all time highs'. This current market noise or fluctuations don't bother me one bit - I'm on a 50 year plan! Inflation can come and go, recessions will come and go. This is just history all in the process of repeating itself. If anything, this is exciting to watch as it's doing exactly what it's supposed to, to be a healthy market for decades to come. Without this current (risk -and downfall) - there can be no future outsized rewards!

Having a long term plan, will get me to my desired goals and spending year after year, without ever worrying about working for a paycheck for the rest of my life. I love how passive it is, and best of all liquid. Understand and being able to ride the ups and down of it all, looking at history and learning about various assets is something I had to learn and master – and advise everyone to start doing as early as 15 years old.

For now I am very happy where I'm at, and feel that I have enough RE exposure as well owning a few million dollar home in a prime Scottsdale location that might eventually be downsized.

One of the things I've been thinking about is adding a second home somewhere as well, but that's only in the planning stage now and still debating on location.
 
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Fox

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In general in the states when interest rates rise do people try to pass on those costs a bit to the renter or is that a cost you usually just soak up yourself?
 

JasonR

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Everyone knows inflation is ravaging the US economy at this moment. If inflation continues to rise but the interest rates spike, leading to higher interest rates on mortgages, I would assume housing prices would fall. The reason is, that people can't afford to pay the higher monthly mortgages so housing prices would have to come down.
I'm not so sure - I think you're missing a key piece in your analysis. What's currently happening in the market is very complex, so it's really hard to predict what's going to happen.

We're seeing a record number of investors (private equity, etc.) buy homes. They can afford to buy all cash. So, while the average JOERENTER couldn't afford it, and may go to foreclosure, an investor like ALLCASHBILL or FUNDMANAGERJASON may scoop it up. Investors want to put their money somewhere, and real estate tends to go up, so it's a good hedge against inflation.

Where did all that government money go that was printed in the last two years? Stocks, crypto, and real estate.

Now, I'm hoping RE falls a bit (I'm looking to buy a couple properties and have cash), but there's no guarantee it will.
 
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Fox

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and real estate tends to go up, so it's a good hedge against inflation.

This seems to have been what happened here in Poland.

People have wanted to put their cash into something and don't seem to trust the local currency so much.
Plus the population is older and European, so stocks and crypto aren't that popular.

So houses have become the #1 way to store your cash over the last two years with the prices not reflecting any real link between what they're actually worth or can rent for. I pay $1500 here for rent (it was originally $1200 before inflation) for an apartment that would sell tomorrow for $750k or more easily.

In Ireland, I could probably buy a house in my home town for $100k that would rent for $1200. So it's totally different.

But... in five years, the house in Ireland would probably be the same $100k and the apartment here might be $1m - so it is hard to call which is the better buy long term.
 

biophase

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In general in the states when interest rates rise do people try to pass on those costs a bit to the renter or is that a cost you usually just soak up yourself?
I never raised my rents due to interest rates going up. I price my rents at whatever the market is.

But if you get a 30 year fixed, then you wouldn't have this issue.
 
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biophase

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A month ago another opportunity came up and I was going to buy but the new interest rates brought the mortgage from what would have been 2k a few months ago to now 3k. The rents in the area I was buying won't cover that new spread so I passed on it.
This is a perfect example. The numbers didn't make sense for you anymore. You need the mortgage of the home to come back down to $2k. So the home price now needs to be lower for you. But for ALLCASHBILL, he can buy at the current price to get a return. However if the price drops, he gets an even better return.

With all the cash that was printed in the last 2 years, where will it go now during the stock market and crypto crash? My feeling is that it's all being shoved into real estate.

If I could buy breakeven cashflow real estate with little down, I'd do that all day now. In the past it was risky for me, because a bad tenant or a roof leak in a couple homes with cripple me. But I have plenty of reserves to handle any housing repairs or empty homes. Worse case is to just pay off the loan earlier and gut and remodel the home.
 
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Worse case is to just pay off the loan earlier and gut and remodel the home.
Presumably to sell it for more? Or would you keep renting it?

Right now I’m sitting on a primary home with a 2.7% rate that I paid 210k for (distressed seller) and is worth almost 400k. I’m still very you g and this is a big part of my net worth, excluding nebulous business valuations. It is pretty hard to look at selling such an amazing asset with such a historically low fixed rate! But that equity - wow!
 
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I bought a property in Utah in Sept 2020, listed at $595 but paid $620. Zillow has it estimated at $980 today and that's not including the $100 we've put into it (some high-value like a mother-in-law basement apartment, some low-return like solar).

I'm in the market for another property (or 2 or 3 depending upon a few personal factors) probably this year, definitely next. For our first one my wife was concerned we were buying at the "peak", but obviously that turned out not to be true. Even if the market does downturn and my house is worth $400, so what? I still have a roof over my head, and while I might not be able to get much if I sold it, I'd still be able to get a comparable house because the market doesn't impact just my house.

Something about the current status of the US economy does not add up. We cannot have crazy inflation, high gas prices, high food prices, low stock prices and low property prices. Something doesn't add up. But the nice thing about real estate is that no one can print more of it.
 
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biophase

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Presumably to sell it for more? Or would you keep renting it?

Right now I’m sitting on a primary home with a 2.7% rate that I paid 210k for (distressed seller) and is worth almost 400k. I’m still very you g and this is a big part of my net worth, excluding nebulous business valuations. It is pretty hard to look at selling such an amazing asset with such a historically low fixed rate! But that equity - wow!
What I meant is that in my younger days if it wasn't rented I'd be in trouble because I could fall behind on my payments. Or if my tenant destroyed the place, I couldn't afford to repair it. But now, if it doesn't get rented I could pay the mortgage indefinitely or if the tenant destroyed it, I could use it as an opportunity to remodel the home. I could sell it or rent it at a higher price after that.

For you, sitting on 2.7% interest is a great rate. If you sold, you better have a good reason to do so. That profit becomes only around $125k after realtor commissions and taxes.

I would just keep renting it and assume it's a paid for home, because 2.7% is pretty much free money.
 

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My friends and I are currently discussing all that's going on today. The ultimate question that always comes up is, where do you put your money today? Stocks, Crypto, Gold, Real Estate, Business, Cash?

I'm definitely a real estate guy when it comes to storing and preserving wealth. The same piece of real estate can be great for me and bad for you at the same time. I am here to today to show you why.

In 2008 I bought a new construction home in Phoenix, Arizona for $335k. I paid $70k down and got a regular loan.

In 2010, the market crashed and the house was worth $200k, I found a renter at market rate at $1700/mo, but my monthly payment was $2400. So I was -$700/mo in cashflow.

I did the math, even with a renter, I was going to be -$8400/year on a place that was -$135k to breakeven.

I calculated that if it took 10 years for this home to appreciate back to where I could breakeven, it would have to be worth $446k in 2019 in order for me to just BREAKEVEN. That would be -$84k in cashflow over 10 years, 6% realtor fee @ $27k to sell. This is also assuming that the home is always rented and nothing breaks. With this 10 year projection, I decided to let the home go into foreclosure in 2010.

Today, this home is worth around $660k.

If I would have kept the home and gone through the trouble of renting it for 10 years and held past its breakeven price in 2020 and sold it today, I would have a nice profit of around $150k. Instead I lost $70k and had a foreclosure on my record for 7 years.

So was this a bad investment? Yes, for me it was. Because of my financial situation at the time, 2010 BIOPHASE couldn't afford to carry -$8400/year cashflow, nor did I want to. I also couldn't pay off the mortgage either.

But for someone else, it may have been a great investment.

Imagine ALLCASHBILL buys this property in 2008 instead of me. He pays cash because he is looking for a place to invest and park his cash. So he pays $335k, and rents it out at $1700/mo. He cashflows +$1000/mo. or $12,000/yr. He sells in 2022 for $660k. So in the 14 years he has owned this property, he makes $468,000k, $168,000 on cashflow and $300k on appreciation.

What a great investment for him!

I made this post to show why the same house can be both a good or bad investment. It all depends on you!

I tell people that I just bought a home in Vegas last month and they say, real estate is in a bubble, don't buy, you are crazy. I ask them why. They give me all the data like current inflation numbers, interest rates rising, we are going into a recession. But what they don't understand is that I am now ALLCASHBILL and they might by 2010 BIOPHASE. We are in two totally different situations. So even though it's the same house, it might be the right buy for someone else but not for you.
I am still buying completed on 4 more apartments this year.....but even in the UK things are getting tighter on rental margins.
 

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My friends and I are currently discussing all that's going on today. The ultimate question that always comes up is, where do you put your money today? Stocks, Crypto, Gold, Real Estate, Business, Cash?

I'm definitely a real estate guy when it comes to storing and preserving wealth. The same piece of real estate can be great for me and bad for you at the same time. I am here to today to show you why.

In 2008 I bought a new construction home in Phoenix, Arizona for $335k. I paid $70k down and got a regular loan.

In 2010, the market crashed and the house was worth $200k, I found a renter at market rate at $1700/mo, but my monthly payment was $2400. So I was -$700/mo in cashflow.

I did the math, even with a renter, I was going to be -$8400/year on a place that was -$135k to breakeven.

I calculated that if it took 10 years for this home to appreciate back to where I could breakeven, it would have to be worth $446k in 2019 in order for me to just BREAKEVEN. That would be -$84k in cashflow over 10 years, 6% realtor fee @ $27k to sell. This is also assuming that the home is always rented and nothing breaks. With this 10 year projection, I decided to let the home go into foreclosure in 2010.

Today, this home is worth around $660k.

If I would have kept the home and gone through the trouble of renting it for 10 years and held past its breakeven price in 2020 and sold it today, I would have a nice profit of around $150k. Instead I lost $70k and had a foreclosure on my record for 7 years.

So was this a bad investment? Yes, for me it was. Because of my financial situation at the time, 2010 BIOPHASE couldn't afford to carry -$8400/year cashflow, nor did I want to. I also couldn't pay off the mortgage either.

But for someone else, it may have been a great investment.

Imagine ALLCASHBILL buys this property in 2008 instead of me. He pays cash because he is looking for a place to invest and park his cash. So he pays $335k, and rents it out at $1700/mo. He cashflows +$1000/mo. or $12,000/yr. He sells in 2022 for $660k. So in the 14 years he has owned this property, he makes $468,000k, $168,000 on cashflow and $300k on appreciation.

What a great investment for him!

I made this post to show why the same house can be both a good or bad investment. It all depends on you!

I tell people that I just bought a home in Vegas last month and they say, real estate is in a bubble, don't buy, you are crazy. I ask them why. They give me all the data like current inflation numbers, interest rates rising, we are going into a recession. But what they don't understand is that I am now ALLCASHBILL and they might by 2010 BIOPHASE. We are in two totally different situations. So even though it's the same house, it might be the right buy for someone else but not for you.

I think the distilled principle here is the cross between the the age old "time in the market beats timing the market" principle and the "don't invest what you can't lose" principle.

If 2008 biophase was invested in a 50k apartment, he may have persevered the same way you would persevere now and then when the financial situation brightened up you would have kept investing and adding. The problem was you bit off more than you could chew in the hopes of outsided rewards. Which leads to success all the time... but it's relying on luck and environment rather than a stable long term plan like you have now. You paying cash or being able to deal with fixes is just ultimately side effects of investing in what you can afford.

So based on this distilled principle.... You are just playing a different game than the people telling you it's a bad time to invest. You are playing the time in the market game versus their timing the market game. You will gladly buy at the lows, the mediums, and the highs. You aren't denying it may be a "bad" time to buy when looking at the purchase through the lense of a single roll of a die. You are just saying it doesn't matter for your investment strategy.
 
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Goodfella999

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@biophase Love the honesty about going into foreclosure. Ive found people dont like to talk about stuff like that even if it was over a decade ago. Really good thread.
 

biophase

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You are just playing a different game than the people telling you it's a bad time to invest. You are playing the time in the market game versus their timing the market game. You will gladly buy at the lows, the mediums, and the highs. You aren't denying it may be a "bad" time to buy when looking at the purchase through the lense of a single roll of a die. You are just saying it doesn't matter for your investment strategy.
Yes, I don’t believe there is a catchall the market is good or bad. It is relative to our situation. People just need to be aware of this.
 

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