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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Vigilante

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I wish the fear mongers would cover the 3000+ people killed by drunk drivers everyday worldwide. But that wouldn’t be nearly as exciting as the COVID 19!

What a great first post! Welcome to the forum.
 

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Thoelt53

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The difference with this virus is that there is a chance (hopefully shrinking), that every single person in the US will get it. It is also currently believed to be 34x more deadly than the flu (0.1 vs 3.4% mortality). This would mean that every single person has to roll the dice, and has a 3% of dying. *That* is getting people's attention.

We can imagine avoiding drunk-drivers, but its hard to imagine avoiding something that is super-contagious. Even if you are vigilant, are your loved ones, and their friends? Probably not. I think the one thing that is containing this virus, if it is being contained, is the paranoia about it. China, to their credit, probably did save a lot of lives by locking down their cities.
“This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.”

-Dr. Jeremy Samuel Faust, emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

 

Rivoli

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“This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.”

-Dr. Jeremy Samuel Faust, emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

That doesn’t drive the news cycle, so will be ignored
 

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The Danish government have now said, that events with more than 1,000 people should be cancelled. Sport events, music events, and even X-factor is playing without spectators from this evening.

Yesterday a former pro soccer player was confirmed infected. He was at a pro match this weekend, saying hello to former teammates etc. Now some players and coaches from his former team are in quarantine.

In good news, the first infected Dane is now healthy again.
 

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While it's a nothing burger, it seems like countries are dealing with it so badly
and not just china shutting people down at the start,
US not taking WHO's test kits and trying to make their own (and f*cked it up), While Korea already tested 100k+ people drive-through style
Mike Pence who is supposed to be in charge of the virus... praying with his crew?
UK's Boris Johnson shaking hands with corona patients

It's hilariously stupid, and will make this virus more serious that it should have been
 

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What’s a nothing burger? 1000s of people are dying, and this started just a few months ago.

In case you don’t get it - it’s a nothing burger to YOU because you or your family have not been affected. Peoples loved ones are dying from something that didn’t even exist a few months ago.

What a self centered comment. And yes, I say the same thing for the flu, obesity, etc etc which is why I take care of my health.
 

Rivoli

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What’s a nothing burger? 1000s of people are dying, and this started just a few months ago.

In case you don’t get it - it’s a nothing burger to YOU because you or your family have not been affected. Peoples loved ones are dying from something that didn’t even exist a few months ago.

What a self centered comment. And yes, I say the same thing for the flu, obesity, etc etc which is why I take care of my health.

By nothingburger I mean its literally less important then the common flu. People that are panicking and emptying costco’s shelves are misguided
 

Thoelt53

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By nothingburger I mean its literally less important then the common flu. People that are panicking and emptying costco’s shelves are misguided
It’s good to be prepared at all times anyhow. Especially when the media fear monger machine kicks into overdrive and people start emptying shelves. If there ever is a real problem you’ll be you had some stock piles of necessities.

The best part is there is no need to panic over just about anything so long as you are prepared.

There are a few different camps of thought flying around in this thread. While this virus looking like a “nothingburger,” the fact still stands that it pays dividends to be ready for a disaster. There’s no need for people to throw around harsh words and unnecessary criticism toward those who choose to prepare.

It’s also a fact that many have died and many more will die. While the majority of the people on this forum will survive due to their age and wellness, I image quite a few will lose older loved ones to this virus over the next couple years.
 

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Rivoli

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I also source my news from Instagram memes and was comforted by this.

lol. I didn’t say I got my news from Instagram. I’m saying I get a feel for general sentiment from what the most popular pages are trending. For example this was posted on a page with 5.5 million followers. Boomers ITT might not get it but it’s really to seee what millennials are thinking based on what goes on on Instagram.


my point was most millennials think it’s overblown

the virus is obviously not that dangerous compared to the flu and and the real damage that can happen is psychologically - and it seems like most people aren’t that worried
 

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Gediger

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The difference with this virus is that there is a chance (hopefully shrinking), that every single person in the US will get it. It is also currently believed to be 34x more deadly than the flu (0.1 vs 3.4% mortality). This would mean that every single person has to roll the dice, and has a 3% of dying. *That* is getting people's attention.

We can imagine avoiding drunk-drivers, but its hard to imagine avoiding something that is super-contagious. Even if you are vigilant, are your loved ones, and their friends? Probably not. I think the one thing that is containing this virus, if it is being contained, is the paranoia about it. China, to their credit, probably did save a lot of lives by locking down their cities.
The point that I’m getting at is all about the media and not so much the coronavirus. Why is it that something like the coronavirus/mass killings garners so much attention when there are thousands of people killed everyday from very preventable incidents. You’re lucky if it even makes the local news. It seems that mass hysteria the name of the game.
 

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I am not worried about the virus or getting it. But I'm angry that my travel plans might go to shit if they cancel my flights and hotels. I really don't like being here during the summer and need to get away every few months.
 

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literally less important then the common flu

Literally no expert has come close to saying this to my knowledge.

In fact, they are all basically saying precisely the opposite. In fact your own video states that this is up to 10x worse than the flu (0.1 for flu, up to 1% for corona)

It's totally okay to feel that this is overblown but calling it "nothing" and "less important than the common flu" is baseless ignorance.

I don't mean this as a personal attack - it's just factually incorrect.
 

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Literally no expert has come close to saying this to my knowledge.

In fact, they are all basically saying precisely the opposite. In fact your own video states that this is up to 10x worse than the flu (0.1 for flu, up to 1% for corona)

It's totally okay to feel that this is overblown but calling it "nothing" and "less important than the common flu" is baseless ignorance.

I don't mean this as a personal attack - it's just factually incorrect.

Flu is operating at a huge scale. You can argue that Covid-19 will get to that same scale. But that is a huge assumption.
 

GIlman

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the virus is obviously not that dangerous compared to the flu and and the real damage that can happen is psychologically - and it seems like most people aren’t that worried

This virus is certainly more dangerous than the flu. you are confusing prevalence with lethality.

right now the flu is much more prevalent than Coronavirus, but it is also much less lethal. However the prevalence of Coronavirus has been increasing, which if it reaches the levels of flu will have a death toll about 10x flu.

also, do you really care what millennials think about something like this? As a group they have no expertise or experience with healthcare or medical issues. Granted, it appears to impact them less than older people, but its hugely naive to assume that they will not be impacted if it continues to spread.

my parents are in their early 70’s, I would hate to lose them, even though the relative risk to me is small.
 

Rivoli

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This virus is certainly more dangerous than the flu. you are confusing prevalence with lethality.

right now the flu is much more prevalent than Coronavirus, but it is also much less lethal. However the prevalence of Coronavirus has been increasing, which if it reaches the levels of flu will have a death toll about 10x flu.

also, do you really care what millennials think about something like this? As a group they have no expertise or experience with healthcare or medical issues. Granted, it appears to impact them less than older people, but its hugely naive to assume that they will not be impacted if it continues to spread.

my parents are in their early 70’s, I would hate to lose them, even though the relative risk to me is small.

My point is the real danger is people stop shopping.
 

GIlman

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My point is the real danger is people stop shopping.

Two (or more) things can be true at the same time. This is a huge risk to heath and well being, especially older people. It is also true that the reaction can and will have financial repercussions.

we don’t need to dismiss one for the other to be true. In fact it is short sighted and foolish to think this way. We can and should see them both as real and substantial risks to our wellbeing.

For example, I have shored up some upplies, because I anticipate that there will likely be shortages and I want to protect myself and my family from human nature to panic. People will panic if they want to, no government can tell them not to, and the fact that they tell them not to panic in and of itself causes people to panic.

but, I still maintain my travel plans and plan to keep living my life as uninterrupted as possible. Granted, somethings may shift out of my control if travel is blocked and events canceled, but if that happens I’ll adjust and live with it.

All of life is risk, my goal is to minimize risks as much as is practice, but accept that zero risk is not possible. Someday I will die of something. It could have already been malaria or accidents or other stuff.
 

Rivoli

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Two (or more) things can be true at the same time. This is a huge risk to heath and well being, especially older people. It is also true that the reaction can and will have financial repercussions.

we don’t need to dismiss one for the other to be true. In fact it is short sighted and foolish to think this way. We can and should see them both as real and substantial risks to our wellbeing.

For example, I have shored up some upplies, because I anticipate that there will likely be shortages and I want to protect myself and my family from human nature to panic. People will panic if they want to, no government can tell them not to, and the fact that they tell them not to panic in and of itself causes people to panic.

but, I still maintain my travel plans and plan to keep living my life as uninterrupted as possible. Granted, somethings may shift out of my control if travel is blocked and events canceled, but if that happens I’ll adjust and live with it.

All of life is risk, my goal is to minimize risks as much as is practice, but accept that zero risk is not possible. Someday I will die of something. It could have already been malaria or accidents or other stuff.

How many older people have died from the flu in the last month?
 

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GIlman

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How many older people have died from the flu in the last month?

Not sure, but I know the rate of lethality (mortality) of flu is 0.09% historically vs likely 1+% for CV. Also the prevalence of CV has been growing exponentially. Realistically there are already 1000’s or cases (mostly untested and undiagnosed) in the US already and growing daily.

But that line of thinking (comparing current flu cases to CV) isn’t really a valid way to approach this anyway, because it makes the assumption that the past, present, and future are fixed and not going to change-which is foolish and lacks insight.

We even already know this isn’t true Since we went from a handful of cases in China 2 months ago to >100,000 documented cases spread worldwide 2 months later. Any assumptions or statements you would have made 2 months ago based on what was happening at the time would now be false and invalid now. E.g. back then you would have said “this isn’t even in the US so why are we even talking about it....”

You seem really hung up on the absolute #’s when you are comparing apples to oranges really. Flu is prevalent in the population, CV is not (yet), but it is becoming more prevalent literally every hour.

obviously there are lots of unknowns, maybe we will reach an inflection point where cases taper off, but if you look at the logarithmic curve of cases it had leveled off but is now beginning to accelerate again.

but even the leveling off is suspect because it assumes the Chinese gov is telling the truth.

lastly, I’m always skeptical of anyone, including myself, making any predictions of the future on anything. But what I do know is that the hallmarks of a severe pandemic are present in this illness, and that if spread widely these hallmarks are highly likely to lead to significant loss of life and disability. That in and of itself is enough for me to approach this whole thing cautiously and prepare accordingly.

if you feel different, great!!! I don’t give a shit what you choose to do, nor should you care what I do. But I prefer to do a risk assessment of situations based on known facts at the time, suppress emotional responses (as much as I can), and take action to reasonably mitigate my risks. I am fully willing to be wrong, but I am not willing to be caught unprepared.
 

Rivoli

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Not sure, but I know the rate of lethality (mortality) of flu is 0.09% historically vs likely 1+% for CV. Also the prevalence of CV has been growing exponentially. Realistically there are already 1000’s or cases (mostly untested and undiagnosed) in the US already and growing daily.

But that line of thinking (comparing current flu cases to CV) isn’t really a valid way to approach this anyway, because it makes the assumption that the past, present, and future are fixed and not going to change-which is foolish and lacks insight.

We even already know this isn’t true Since we went from a handful of cases in China 2 months ago to >100,000 documented cases spread worldwide 2 months later. Any assumptions or statements you would have made 2 months ago based on what was happening at the time would now be false and invalid now. E.g. back then you would have said “this isn’t even in the US so why are we even talking about it....”

You seem really hung up on the absolute #’s when you are comparing apples to oranges really. Flu is prevalent in the population, CV is not (yet), but it is becoming more prevalent literally every hour.

obviously there are lots of unknowns, maybe we will reach an inflection point where cases taper off, but if you look at the logarithmic curve of cases it had leveled off but is now beginning to accelerate again.

but even the leveling off is suspect because it assumes the Chinese gov is telling the truth.

lastly, I’m always skeptical of anyone, including myself, making any predictions of the future on anything. But what I do know is that the hallmarks of a severe pandemic are present in this illness, and that if spread widely these hallmarks are highly likely to lead to significant loss of life and disability. That in and of itself is enough for me to approach this whole thing cautiously and prepare accordingly.

if you feel different, great!!! I don’t give a shit what you choose to do, nor should you care what I do. But I prefer to do a risk assessment of situations based on known facts at the time, suppress emotional responses (as much as I can), and take action to reasonably mitigate my risks. I am fully willing to be wrong, but I am not willing to be caught unprepared.

CDC just said today real COVID 19 death rate could be 0.1% to 1%. It might be 0.1%
 

Gabry_ITA

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3296 sick people and 148 deaths so far here in Italy.

Schools are closed until the 15th, and this closure might be extended until the 4th of April. The same goes for sports events. Bars, cinemas, museums, restaurants, etc. are still open, but who knows for how long.

The authorities keep pointing out how only people who are 65+ have died so far and thus advise older people to avoid going outside.

Anyway, the virus has been circulating here in Italy since December, and it went undetected until after people realized the COVID exists, so I wonder if it's that dangerous. Maybe it can only become harmful if it mutates, which is the only thing I'd be worried about at the moment.

I've been having a slightly worse flu this year, was I infected? Maybe? Maybe not. I have recovered now, so I can't just call my hospital and tell them "hey I had flu that felt a little different from usual a month ago", and like me, the thousands of other people who have had the same illness don't count towards the data point.

That said, I'll still be careful, as I don't want to infect people and kill them (I live in a town with a lot of old folks). Plus, I'm not sure I want to risk being the first person to find out that the virus can be harmful to younger people too.

Anyway, I don't know what your media is saying, but the situation feels pretty tame here, and I live in Lombardy (though I am not very close to the center of the infection).

Guess this is the time I finally stop biting my nails :humph:

Ciao, bello trovare un'altra persona lombarda sul forum...da dove scrivi? Io sono nel lecchese.

However, I don't know how the media situation is in other countries but here, in Italy, they're bombing us: every newspaper (and related website) writes so many articles that it's almost impossible to count them.
Also, there are special TV shows about coronavirus everyday.

I think that if you're healthy and not over 65 y.o. there aren't big problema.
But, thanks to this media-bombing, I feel a little anxious. Human mind... :D

The worst problem is there'll be serious economics consequences (and in Italy we weren't in a good shape also before this virus).

I don't know. I hope that the situation will return normal soon.
 

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I thought it was nothing myself til I seen Bill Gates Ted Talk from 2015. Man he predicted the future accurately. Go watch it on YouTube.
 

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This virus is certainly more dangerous than the flu. you are confusing prevalence with lethality.
Ok, this is where I have been saying that our data is incomplete. Many are saying that CV is more lethal than the flu, but that is impossible to determine unless REAL surveillance has been done (testing). You CANNOT define lethality unless you have accurate numbers of actual infections. While I will say that @Rivoli has assumed that this is nothing, or along the lines of a flu, we will have no way to get a good scope of how lethal this thing is for quite some time. We know how lethal the flu or, say, strep throat is because we have a well established system for testing.

I could be completely wrong in all this. I think S Korea right now is leading the way on really establishing lethality since they are willing and able to go above and beyond on testing and prevention.
 

GIlman

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GIlman

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Ok, this is where I have been saying that our data is incomplete. Many are saying that CV is more lethal than the flu, but that is impossible to determine unless REAL surveillance has been done (testing). You CANNOT define lethality unless you have accurate numbers of actual infections. While I will say that @Rivoli has assumed that this is nothing, or along the lines of a flu, we will have no way to get a good scope of how lethal this thing is for quite some time. We know how lethal the flu or, say, strep throat is because we have a well established system for testing.

I could be completely wrong in all this. I think S Korea right now is leading the way on really establishing lethality since they are willing and able to go above and beyond on testing and prevention.

completely agree with you. The princess cruise and S Korea will give us the best picture of this. but all early indicators are it is higher, but not as high as current estimates. Time will tell for sure.

But things I do know that we don’t have to wait to determine, in Wuhan all their hospitals were over run and they had to build 2600 more beds just to deal with the severely ill. That is not like normal flu, it’s very different. That and other things is why I say the evidence strongly points to it being significantly more lethal than typical flu.
 
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GoodluckChuck

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There was a line to get in Costco this morning. The closest infected person is 1000 miles away that we know of. I expect there to be mass panic here as soon as there's a report of the 1st infection. I see it highly unlikely that it doesn't reach every city in the US.

Those that aren't worried should still stock up on stuff they will need anyway like to, soap, and dried food goods. When everyone is losing their shit trying to buy stuff at Costco with sick kids in the cart you will want to be home watching it on TV.

God speed.
 

biggeemac

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completely agree with you. The princess cruise and S Korea will give us the best picture of this. but all early indicators are it is higher, but not as high as current estimates. Time will tell for sure.

But things I do know that we don’t have to wait to determine, in Wuhan all their hospitals were over run and they had to build 2600 more beds just to deal with the severely ill. That is not like normal flu, it’s very different. That and other things is why I say the evidence strongly points to it being significantly more lethal than typical flu.

As far as I'm concerned, the majority of those funds that the POTUS signed should be allocated to testing for CV. Think about it......if they can expose that the number of infected is actually WAY higher than the current numbers indicate, this brings the death rate down significantly. Ideally, the death rate is brought down to a level closer to the flu. This will affect the public's anxiety and panic over this, and perhaps the country can get back to business. The fact that everyone is SO in the dark about CV is what is causing all this panic. We don't like uncertainty.

One question I have kicked around is.....if we didn't have flu shots available, what would the death rate of the common flu look like?

So many questions, not enough CORRECT answers. That's what is driving this hysteria. I have to force myself to stop watching the news and just carry on with business as usual. The two people who are statistically(old enough) more likely to die from this in my family are fairly secluded already and sit and watch TV all day, and have been waiting to die for years.
 
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