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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Rivoli

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This virus is certainly more dangerous than the flu. you are confusing prevalence with lethality.

right now the flu is much more prevalent than Coronavirus, but it is also much less lethal. However the prevalence of Coronavirus has been increasing, which if it reaches the levels of flu will have a death toll about 10x flu.

also, do you really care what millennials think about something like this? As a group they have no expertise or experience with healthcare or medical issues. Granted, it appears to impact them less than older people, but its hugely naive to assume that they will not be impacted if it continues to spread.

my parents are in their early 70’s, I would hate to lose them, even though the relative risk to me is small.

My point is the real danger is people stop shopping.
 

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GIlman

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My point is the real danger is people stop shopping.

Two (or more) things can be true at the same time. This is a huge risk to heath and well being, especially older people. It is also true that the reaction can and will have financial repercussions.

we don’t need to dismiss one for the other to be true. In fact it is short sighted and foolish to think this way. We can and should see them both as real and substantial risks to our wellbeing.

For example, I have shored up some upplies, because I anticipate that there will likely be shortages and I want to protect myself and my family from human nature to panic. People will panic if they want to, no government can tell them not to, and the fact that they tell them not to panic in and of itself causes people to panic.

but, I still maintain my travel plans and plan to keep living my life as uninterrupted as possible. Granted, somethings may shift out of my control if travel is blocked and events canceled, but if that happens I’ll adjust and live with it.

All of life is risk, my goal is to minimize risks as much as is practice, but accept that zero risk is not possible. Someday I will die of something. It could have already been malaria or accidents or other stuff.
 

Rivoli

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Two (or more) things can be true at the same time. This is a huge risk to heath and well being, especially older people. It is also true that the reaction can and will have financial repercussions.

we don’t need to dismiss one for the other to be true. In fact it is short sighted and foolish to think this way. We can and should see them both as real and substantial risks to our wellbeing.

For example, I have shored up some upplies, because I anticipate that there will likely be shortages and I want to protect myself and my family from human nature to panic. People will panic if they want to, no government can tell them not to, and the fact that they tell them not to panic in and of itself causes people to panic.

but, I still maintain my travel plans and plan to keep living my life as uninterrupted as possible. Granted, somethings may shift out of my control if travel is blocked and events canceled, but if that happens I’ll adjust and live with it.

All of life is risk, my goal is to minimize risks as much as is practice, but accept that zero risk is not possible. Someday I will die of something. It could have already been malaria or accidents or other stuff.

How many older people have died from the flu in the last month?
 

GIlman

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How many older people have died from the flu in the last month?

Not sure, but I know the rate of lethality (mortality) of flu is 0.09% historically vs likely 1+% for CV. Also the prevalence of CV has been growing exponentially. Realistically there are already 1000’s or cases (mostly untested and undiagnosed) in the US already and growing daily.

But that line of thinking (comparing current flu cases to CV) isn’t really a valid way to approach this anyway, because it makes the assumption that the past, present, and future are fixed and not going to change-which is foolish and lacks insight.

We even already know this isn’t true Since we went from a handful of cases in China 2 months ago to >100,000 documented cases spread worldwide 2 months later. Any assumptions or statements you would have made 2 months ago based on what was happening at the time would now be false and invalid now. E.g. back then you would have said “this isn’t even in the US so why are we even talking about it....”

You seem really hung up on the absolute #’s when you are comparing apples to oranges really. Flu is prevalent in the population, CV is not (yet), but it is becoming more prevalent literally every hour.

obviously there are lots of unknowns, maybe we will reach an inflection point where cases taper off, but if you look at the logarithmic curve of cases it had leveled off but is now beginning to accelerate again.

but even the leveling off is suspect because it assumes the Chinese gov is telling the truth.

lastly, I’m always skeptical of anyone, including myself, making any predictions of the future on anything. But what I do know is that the hallmarks of a severe pandemic are present in this illness, and that if spread widely these hallmarks are highly likely to lead to significant loss of life and disability. That in and of itself is enough for me to approach this whole thing cautiously and prepare accordingly.

if you feel different, great!!! I don’t give a shit what you choose to do, nor should you care what I do. But I prefer to do a risk assessment of situations based on known facts at the time, suppress emotional responses (as much as I can), and take action to reasonably mitigate my risks. I am fully willing to be wrong, but I am not willing to be caught unprepared.
 

Rivoli

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Not sure, but I know the rate of lethality (mortality) of flu is 0.09% historically vs likely 1+% for CV. Also the prevalence of CV has been growing exponentially. Realistically there are already 1000’s or cases (mostly untested and undiagnosed) in the US already and growing daily.

But that line of thinking (comparing current flu cases to CV) isn’t really a valid way to approach this anyway, because it makes the assumption that the past, present, and future are fixed and not going to change-which is foolish and lacks insight.

We even already know this isn’t true Since we went from a handful of cases in China 2 months ago to >100,000 documented cases spread worldwide 2 months later. Any assumptions or statements you would have made 2 months ago based on what was happening at the time would now be false and invalid now. E.g. back then you would have said “this isn’t even in the US so why are we even talking about it....”

You seem really hung up on the absolute #’s when you are comparing apples to oranges really. Flu is prevalent in the population, CV is not (yet), but it is becoming more prevalent literally every hour.

obviously there are lots of unknowns, maybe we will reach an inflection point where cases taper off, but if you look at the logarithmic curve of cases it had leveled off but is now beginning to accelerate again.

but even the leveling off is suspect because it assumes the Chinese gov is telling the truth.

lastly, I’m always skeptical of anyone, including myself, making any predictions of the future on anything. But what I do know is that the hallmarks of a severe pandemic are present in this illness, and that if spread widely these hallmarks are highly likely to lead to significant loss of life and disability. That in and of itself is enough for me to approach this whole thing cautiously and prepare accordingly.

if you feel different, great!!! I don’t give a shit what you choose to do, nor should you care what I do. But I prefer to do a risk assessment of situations based on known facts at the time, suppress emotional responses (as much as I can), and take action to reasonably mitigate my risks. I am fully willing to be wrong, but I am not willing to be caught unprepared.

CDC just said today real COVID 19 death rate could be 0.1% to 1%. It might be 0.1%
 

Gabry_ITA

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3296 sick people and 148 deaths so far here in Italy.

Schools are closed until the 15th, and this closure might be extended until the 4th of April. The same goes for sports events. Bars, cinemas, museums, restaurants, etc. are still open, but who knows for how long.

The authorities keep pointing out how only people who are 65+ have died so far and thus advise older people to avoid going outside.

Anyway, the virus has been circulating here in Italy since December, and it went undetected until after people realized the COVID exists, so I wonder if it's that dangerous. Maybe it can only become harmful if it mutates, which is the only thing I'd be worried about at the moment.

I've been having a slightly worse flu this year, was I infected? Maybe? Maybe not. I have recovered now, so I can't just call my hospital and tell them "hey I had flu that felt a little different from usual a month ago", and like me, the thousands of other people who have had the same illness don't count towards the data point.

That said, I'll still be careful, as I don't want to infect people and kill them (I live in a town with a lot of old folks). Plus, I'm not sure I want to risk being the first person to find out that the virus can be harmful to younger people too.

Anyway, I don't know what your media is saying, but the situation feels pretty tame here, and I live in Lombardy (though I am not very close to the center of the infection).

Guess this is the time I finally stop biting my nails :humph:

Ciao, bello trovare un'altra persona lombarda sul forum...da dove scrivi? Io sono nel lecchese.

However, I don't know how the media situation is in other countries but here, in Italy, they're bombing us: every newspaper (and related website) writes so many articles that it's almost impossible to count them.
Also, there are special TV shows about coronavirus everyday.

I think that if you're healthy and not over 65 y.o. there aren't big problema.
But, thanks to this media-bombing, I feel a little anxious. Human mind... :D

The worst problem is there'll be serious economics consequences (and in Italy we weren't in a good shape also before this virus).

I don't know. I hope that the situation will return normal soon.
 

@momo

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I thought it was nothing myself til I seen Bill Gates Ted Talk from 2015. Man he predicted the future accurately. Go watch it on YouTube.
 

biggeemac

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This virus is certainly more dangerous than the flu. you are confusing prevalence with lethality.
Ok, this is where I have been saying that our data is incomplete. Many are saying that CV is more lethal than the flu, but that is impossible to determine unless REAL surveillance has been done (testing). You CANNOT define lethality unless you have accurate numbers of actual infections. While I will say that @Rivoli has assumed that this is nothing, or along the lines of a flu, we will have no way to get a good scope of how lethal this thing is for quite some time. We know how lethal the flu or, say, strep throat is because we have a well established system for testing.

I could be completely wrong in all this. I think S Korea right now is leading the way on really establishing lethality since they are willing and able to go above and beyond on testing and prevention.
 

GIlman

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GIlman

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Ok, this is where I have been saying that our data is incomplete. Many are saying that CV is more lethal than the flu, but that is impossible to determine unless REAL surveillance has been done (testing). You CANNOT define lethality unless you have accurate numbers of actual infections. While I will say that @Rivoli has assumed that this is nothing, or along the lines of a flu, we will have no way to get a good scope of how lethal this thing is for quite some time. We know how lethal the flu or, say, strep throat is because we have a well established system for testing.

I could be completely wrong in all this. I think S Korea right now is leading the way on really establishing lethality since they are willing and able to go above and beyond on testing and prevention.

completely agree with you. The princess cruise and S Korea will give us the best picture of this. but all early indicators are it is higher, but not as high as current estimates. Time will tell for sure.

But things I do know that we don’t have to wait to determine, in Wuhan all their hospitals were over run and they had to build 2600 more beds just to deal with the severely ill. That is not like normal flu, it’s very different. That and other things is why I say the evidence strongly points to it being significantly more lethal than typical flu.
 
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GoodluckChuck

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There was a line to get in Costco this morning. The closest infected person is 1000 miles away that we know of. I expect there to be mass panic here as soon as there's a report of the 1st infection. I see it highly unlikely that it doesn't reach every city in the US.

Those that aren't worried should still stock up on stuff they will need anyway like to, soap, and dried food goods. When everyone is losing their shit trying to buy stuff at Costco with sick kids in the cart you will want to be home watching it on TV.

God speed.
 

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biggeemac

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completely agree with you. The princess cruise and S Korea will give us the best picture of this. but all early indicators are it is higher, but not as high as current estimates. Time will tell for sure.

But things I do know that we don’t have to wait to determine, in Wuhan all their hospitals were over run and they had to build 2600 more beds just to deal with the severely ill. That is not like normal flu, it’s very different. That and other things is why I say the evidence strongly points to it being significantly more lethal than typical flu.

As far as I'm concerned, the majority of those funds that the POTUS signed should be allocated to testing for CV. Think about it......if they can expose that the number of infected is actually WAY higher than the current numbers indicate, this brings the death rate down significantly. Ideally, the death rate is brought down to a level closer to the flu. This will affect the public's anxiety and panic over this, and perhaps the country can get back to business. The fact that everyone is SO in the dark about CV is what is causing all this panic. We don't like uncertainty.

One question I have kicked around is.....if we didn't have flu shots available, what would the death rate of the common flu look like?

So many questions, not enough CORRECT answers. That's what is driving this hysteria. I have to force myself to stop watching the news and just carry on with business as usual. The two people who are statistically(old enough) more likely to die from this in my family are fairly secluded already and sit and watch TV all day, and have been waiting to die for years.
 

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That's cherry picked data. You have to look at the end result to know if any case is fatal or not. Unfortunetly all the data seems to use Death % = total deaths/total infected. When in reality the only fair way to know the mortality rate is the following: Death % = total death/ (total death + total recovered).

This is because of those infected, but not recovered, it is unknown if that person will recover or die.

Worldmeter has been making live updates here: Coronavirus Update (Live): 101,883 Cases and 3,464 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

As we can see the mortality rate currently is around: 6%. (actually its 5.81%, but rounded up is 6%)

That is because 0.0581 = 3,464 Deaths / 59,587 closed cases.

To put into perspective, according to cdc.gov Plague FAQ | CDC
The death rate isn't too far off from plague (The WHO describes the death rate of plague to be 8-10%, this unfortunetly lumps Bubonic, Septicemic and Pneumonic plagues together.)

What is the death rate of plague?
In the pre-antibiotic era (1900 through 1941), mortality among those infected with plague in the United States was 66%. Antibiotics greatly reduced mortality, and by 1990-2010 overall mortality had decreased to 11%. Plague can still be fatal despite effective antibiotics, though it is lower for bubonic plague cases than for septicemic or pneumonic plague cases. It is hard to assess the mortality rate of plague in developing countries, as relatively few cases are reliably diagnosed and reported to health authorities. WHO cites mortality rates of 8–10%, however some studies (WHO, 2004) suggest that mortality may be much higher in some plague endemic areas.

The unknown here is the treatment level of those infected, which will greatly impact their chance of recovery. If hospitals become overloaded, we will certainly see an increase in mortality rate.

EDIT: One thing that is particularily concerning is according to worldmeter, the ratio of closed cases (total deaths + total recovered) to deaths in United States is 30-15, making the mortality rate 50%! Maybe One could dispute how the data is gathered and updated, but since there is no way to disprove it currently, I would have reservations of taking this virus lightly.
 
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Ernman

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I'm not joining the fray one way or the other. I have my "opinion" and I continue to watch many news sources to help me stay informed. But as I am not an MD or in any way qualified to comment - other than to regurgitate what I hear and see - I'll keep my opinion to myself.

I do want to share something interesting I learned today. A major tradeshow has been cancelled because two of their largest participants banned participation by their employees in response to the virus risk. These companies are also banning all "non-essential travel" internationally and domestic. I'll not name the event or the companies as I was in a private information status with them. But it is worth noting that if the large international companies are assessing the risks as high enough to curtail travel, perhaps all of us should reassess our travel plans.

Again, I'm just relaying facts that you might not otherwise become aware of. Just another data point in your personal risk assessment.
 

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That's cherry picked data. You have to look at the end result to know if any case is fatal or not. Unfortunetly all the data seems to use Death % = total deaths/total infected. When in reality the only fair way to know the mortality rate is the following: Death % = total death/ (total death + total recovered).

This is because of those infected, but not recovered, it is unknown if that person will recover or die.

Worldmeter has been making live updates here: Coronavirus Update (Live): 101,883 Cases and 3,464 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

As we can see the mortality rate currently is around: 6%. (actually its 5.81%, but rounded up is 6%)

That is because 0.0581 = 3,464 Deaths / 59,587 closed cases.

To put into perspective, according to cdc.gov Plague FAQ | CDC
The death rate isn't too far off from plague (The WHO describes the death rate of plague to be 8-10%, this unfortunetly lumps Bubonic, Septicemic and Pneumonic plagues together.)

What is the death rate of plague?
In the pre-antibiotic era (1900 through 1941), mortality among those infected with plague in the United States was 66%. Antibiotics greatly reduced mortality, and by 1990-2010 overall mortality had decreased to 11%. Plague can still be fatal despite effective antibiotics, though it is lower for bubonic plague cases than for septicemic or pneumonic plague cases. It is hard to assess the mortality rate of plague in developing countries, as relatively few cases are reliably diagnosed and reported to health authorities. WHO cites mortality rates of 8–10%, however some studies (WHO, 2004) suggest that mortality may be much higher in some plague endemic areas.

The unknown here is the treatment level of those infected, which will greatly impact their chance of recovery. If hospitals become overloaded, we will certainly see an increase in mortality rate.

EDIT: One thing that is particularily concerning is according to worldmeter, the ratio of closed cases to deaths in United States is 23- 8, making the mortality rate 35%! Maybe One could dispute how the data is gathered and updated, but since thre is no way to disprove it currently, I would have reservations of taking this virus lightly.
Your speculation is totally unfounded. There haven’t been enough people tested. Period.

If you want to talk sound data, look at South Korea and the Diamond Princess. Death rates are .6% and .85% respectively. No where else has there been an equivalent level of testing. Not even close.

The Diamond Princess is especially interesting in that 19% of the passengers contracted the virus, or 706 people. If you were to extrapolate that to say, the city of Wuhan (pop. 8,266,000), we would expect to see more than 1,500,000 people infected. Let’s assume a 3.5% death rate and we’re left with 54,968 dead in Wuhan alone. The actual number of deaths would not support the currently accepted death rate if you were to test every person on earth. The numbers just don’t add up.

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 to the plague is totally unfair to people who don’t understand the matter and it’s the same type of talk that is causing mass panic.

Here’s a good article by an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s hospital who is more qualified to speculate than anyone in this thread save @GIlman:

 
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Rivoli

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if you cite something please provide the source as a direct link. I have seen no such claim from the CDC.

The WHO just posted a mortality rate of 3.4%, which as I’ve stated in multiple prior posts is certainly high. How high, that is yet to be determined.


View: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1235786467420581888



WHO isn’t counting asymptomatic cases
 

Rivoli

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Your speculation is totally unfounded. There haven’t been enough people tested. Period.

If you want to talk sound data, look at South Korea and the Diamond Princess. Death rates are .6% and .85% respectively. No where else has there been an equivalent level of testing. Not even close.

The Diamond Princess is especially interesting in that 19% of the passengers contracted the virus, or 706 people. If you were to extrapolate that to say, the city of Wuhan (pop. 8,266,000), we would expect to see more than 1,500,000 people infected. Let’s assume a 3.5% death rate and we’re left with 54,968 dead in Wuhan alone. The actual number of deaths would not support the currently accepted death rate if you were to test every person on earth. The numbers just don’t add up.

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 to the plague is totally unfair to people who don’t understand the matter and it’s the same type of talk that is causing mass panic.

Here’s a good article by an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s hospital who is more qualified to speculate than anyone in this thread save @GIlman:


this is the best take I’ve seen online, or anywhere really
 

Rivoli

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That's cherry picked data. You have to look at the end result to know if any case is fatal or not. Unfortunetly all the data seems to use Death % = total deaths/total infected. When in reality the only fair way to know the mortality rate is the following: Death % = total death/ (total death + total recovered).

This is because of those infected, but not recovered, it is unknown if that person will recover or die.

Worldmeter has been making live updates here: Coronavirus Update (Live): 101,883 Cases and 3,464 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

As we can see the mortality rate currently is around: 6%. (actually its 5.81%, but rounded up is 6%)

That is because 0.0581 = 3,464 Deaths / 59,587 closed cases.

To put into perspective, according to cdc.gov Plague FAQ | CDC
The death rate isn't too far off from plague (The WHO describes the death rate of plague to be 8-10%, this unfortunetly lumps Bubonic, Septicemic and Pneumonic plagues together.)

What is the death rate of plague?
In the pre-antibiotic era (1900 through 1941), mortality among those infected with plague in the United States was 66%. Antibiotics greatly reduced mortality, and by 1990-2010 overall mortality had decreased to 11%. Plague can still be fatal despite effective antibiotics, though it is lower for bubonic plague cases than for septicemic or pneumonic plague cases. It is hard to assess the mortality rate of plague in developing countries, as relatively few cases are reliably diagnosed and reported to health authorities. WHO cites mortality rates of 8–10%, however some studies (WHO, 2004) suggest that mortality may be much higher in some plague endemic areas.

The unknown here is the treatment level of those infected, which will greatly impact their chance of recovery. If hospitals become overloaded, we will certainly see an increase in mortality rate.

EDIT: One thing that is particularily concerning is according to worldmeter, the ratio of closed cases (total deaths + total recovered) to deaths in United States is 30-15, making the mortality rate 50%! Maybe One could dispute how the data is gathered and updated, but since there is no way to disprove it currently, I would have reservations of taking this virus lightly.

how do you explain the diamond princess cruise?
 

MJ DeMarco

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Curious if anyone here is willing put their money where their opinions are...

If you think this is the end of the economy and the next big bad black swan, the gateway to a recession, sell SPX calls. If you sell 10 or 20 of them and are CORRECT, you stand to make hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Likewise, if you think this is overblown and likely to fade away, sell SPX puts.

Either way, you take advantage of the huge premiums due to the volatility and uncertainty.

I've made bets that this will blow over, but not to the point that I'm risking life and limb.

Personally, I've prepared for the worst.

But financially, "my money" is on this flaming out moreso than something prolonged. If I'm wrong, it won't cost me too much but lost F-you money. But if I'm right, I could double my money. So not only do I have an opinion, I've wagered substantial money on it, moreso than a few months of food, toilet paper, and cans of Lysol.

The Diamond Princess is especially interesting in that 19% of the passengers contracted the virus, or 706 people.

Most cruise ships are disgusting, especially if it's owned by Carnival. Those numbers don't surprise me as cruise ships are like floating petri dishes, not to mention many folks who like them tend to be 50+ years and older.
 

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Rivoli

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Curious if anyone here is willing put their money where their opinions are...

If you think this is the end of the economy and the next big bad black swan, the gateway to a recession, sell SPX calls. If you sell 10 or 20 of them and are CORRECT, you stand to make hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Likewise, if you think this is overblown and likely to fade away, sell SPX puts.

Either way, you take advantage of the huge premiums due to the volatility and uncertainty.

I've made bets that this will blow over, but not to the point that I'm risking life and limb.

Personally, I've prepared for the worst.

But financially, "my money" is on this flaming out moreso than something prolonged. If I'm wrong, it won't cost me too much but lost F-you money. But if I'm right, I could double my money. So not only do I have an opinion, I've wagered substantial money on it, moreso than a few months of food, toilet paper, and cans of Lysol.



Most cruise ships are disgusting, especially if it's owned by Carnival. Those numbers don't surprise me as cruise ships are like floating petri dishes, not to mention many folks who like them tend to be 50+ years and older.

Im comfortable betting $10k selling spx puts. I’m looking up how to do it now
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Im comfortable betting $10k selling spx puts. I’m looking up how to do it now

Look at my options thread on the INSIDE, there are details there. But it isn't for the faint-of-heart, nor the newb. I was just saying that most folks with an opinion don't lay money on it.

I have.

If one is confident in their assertions and speculations, then lay down the cash. If you think this is overblown, BUYING SPX calls would probably be better as it limits your risk, just expect to pay a fortune for them as premiums have shot thru the roof. Selling SPX puts limits your gain to the amount sold.

Right now the SPX is at 2950 ... a simple 31 day put with a 2800 strike sells for a whopping $7,700. If the market recovers, flatlines, or only goes down another few %, you keep the $7K+. But if it goes down to 2500, you're on the hook for $30K in losses, down to SPX 2000, $80K.
 

GIlman

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Curious if anyone here is willing put their money where their opinions are...

If you think this is the end of the economy and the next big bad black swan, the gateway to a recession, sell SPX calls. If you sell 10 or 20 of them and are CORRECT, you stand to make hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Likewise, if you think this is overblown and likely to fade away, sell SPX puts.

Either way, you take advantage of the huge premiums due to the volatility and uncertainty.

I've made bets that this will blow over, but not to the point that I'm risking life and limb.

Personally, I've prepared for the worst.

But financially, "my money" is on this flaming out moreso than something prolonged. If I'm wrong, it won't cost me too much but lost F-you money. But if I'm right, I could double my money. So not only do I have an opinion, I've wagered substantial money on it, moreso than a few months of food, toilet paper, and cans of Lysol.



Most cruise ships are disgusting, especially if it's owned by Carnival. Those numbers don't surprise me as cruise ships are like floating petri dishes, not to mention many folks who like them tend to be 50+ years and older.

I chose to buy some SPX puts, I realize the benefit of selling vs buying. But the potential gain in buying offers more than selling, and risk is limited to the cost of the put. I expect quite a bit of volatility and selling you may have someone exercise the option and force a loss even though they haven't expired.
 

biggeemac

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I literally was thinking this morning that I wished I was already up to speed on the options thing. I would be selling SPX puts as well. But I know right now, my dumb a$$ would lose money as I would be under the newb category.

Does think or swim still offer a pretty good practice platform, or are there better ones now?
 

Thoelt53

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Curious if anyone here is willing put their money where their opinions are...

If you think this is the end of the economy and the next big bad black swan, the gateway to a recession, sell SPX calls. If you sell 10 or 20 of them and are CORRECT, you stand to make hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Likewise, if you think this is overblown and likely to fade away, sell SPX puts.

Either way, you take advantage of the huge premiums due to the volatility and uncertainty.

I've made bets that this will blow over, but not to the point that I'm risking life and limb.

Personally, I've prepared for the worst.

But financially, "my money" is on this flaming out moreso than something prolonged. If I'm wrong, it won't cost me too much but lost F-you money. But if I'm right, I could double my money. So not only do I have an opinion, I've wagered substantial money on it, moreso than a few months of food, toilet paper, and cans of Lysol.



Most cruise ships are disgusting, especially if it's owned by Carnival. Those numbers don't surprise me as cruise ships are like floating petri dishes, not to mention many folks who like them tend to be 50+ years and older.
While I’m not particularly concerned about the virus, I am concerned about the socioeconomic effects of the media hype and draconian measures in China that have ground trade to a halt.

I too may have to crash course options trading and try to not have my a$$ handed to me. Speculation can be a bitch.
 

MJ DeMarco

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I expect quite a bit of volatility and selling you may have someone exercise the option and force a loss even though they haven't expired.

That's not realistic. And I've sold literally THOUSANDS, perhaps HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDs options in my life. No one would exercise an OTM option or even a partially ITM option when relative implied volatility is at 100%. If they do, they just did you a favor and your account will enjoy an instant gain.

BTW, I'm not advocating anyone go out and dabble in options. If you want to make a bet on your opinion, the easiest thing would be to buy the SPY or the QQQ (for upside) probably better than buying the calls as you avoid elevated premiums. For continued downside, I'd sell vertical calls with long wings. For downside, buying puts at 50 VIX is a losing proposition -- I'd be the one selling them to you! And I'd smile every time.

;)
 

GIlman

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That's not realistic. And I've sold literally THOUSANDS, perhaps HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDs options in my life. No one would exercise an OTM option or even a partially ITM option when relative implied volatility is at 100%. If they do, they just did you a favor and your account will enjoy an instant gain.

BTW, I'm not advocating anyone go out and dabble in options. If you want to make a bet on your opinion, the easiest thing would be to buy the SPY or the QQQ (for upside) probably better than buying the calls as you avoid elevated premiums. For continued downside, I'd sell vertical calls with long wings. For downside, buying puts at 50 VIX is a losing proposition -- I'd be the one selling them to you! And I'd smile every time.

;)

you definitely have more experience than me, so I trust your analysis. That was just my thinking at the time. Still learning by doing, have lots to learn still.
 

LightningHelix

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Your speculation is totally unfounded. There haven’t been enough people tested. Period.

If you want to talk sound data, look at South Korea and the Diamond Princess. Death rates are .6% and .85% respectively. No where else has there been an equivalent level of testing. Not even close.

The Diamond Princess is especially interesting in that 19% of the passengers contracted the virus, or 706 people. If you were to extrapolate that to say, the city of Wuhan (pop. 8,266,000), we would expect to see more than 1,500,000 people infected. Let’s assume a 3.5% death rate and we’re left with 54,968 dead in Wuhan alone. The actual number of deaths would not support the currently accepted death rate if you were to test every person on earth. The numbers just don’t add up.

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 to the plague is totally unfair to people who don’t understand the matter and it’s the same type of talk that is causing mass panic.

Here’s a good article by an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s hospital who is more qualified to speculate than anyone in this thread save @GIlman:


Presenting data =\= speculation.

I'm not guessing what will happen. I'm presenting what the data says. If you don't agree with the data is presenting, then that is your speculation. There isn't enough evidence that the presented data is wrong.

I don't have a crystal ball, I can't predict the outcome of all of this. But if the current data says there is a 6% mortality rate, then I would say it's far from nothing.

Either way the economic effects are going to be major.
 

LightningHelix

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I'm not sure where your sources are but check the link in my post and you will see what data I used. Once again your source may be different from mine, and I won't get detracted into a discussion about whose source is better.

Edit: okay I will a little.

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