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FEATURED! The Coming Recession (2018-2019?)

Discussion in 'Investing/Trading/Cryptocurrency/Altcoins' started by JScott, May 27, 2018.

  1. pastemaker
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    pastemaker New Contributor

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    I wonder if something is brewing behind the curtains.

    My online sales have declined by over 50% since September. I thought this was only happening to me because the local economy is going really well at the moment and everyone's reporting good sales.

    But after doing some research online, it seems that many other sellers have been experiencing the same drop beginning around the same month

    Here's one example(Don't just read OP, other sellers have posted similar declines in September):
    Sales Drop since March... this is the END

    Btw, my business is totally independent and I don't sell on Amazon as per the above link.

    Apparently even big companies like Apple & Energizer(there's more) have reported declining sales in Q4.

    Home sales & Home prices have also started decreasing in Q4, some even reporting 7-year low sales.

    I totally think we are heading downwards big time from here, what other explanation could there be to this phenomenon? It can't be coincidence.

    You can go through this google search for 'low sales' between september and today for some more insight:
    low sales - Google Search
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2018
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  2. JAJT
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    JAJT Ha Ha! Business Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    I'm not in the markets, so much of this thread has gone over my head, but I recently joined a really killer local real estate group in town that has regularly monthly guest speakers. This month they brought out a guy named Chris Martenson who gave a really, really killer talk on many of the topics you guys are talking about.

    I haven't heard of him before I saw him speak - but he's supposedly a multi-degree holding research scientist specializing in economy, energy and the environment. Apparently he gives talks at the UN and to various world leaders and such in addition to running around the world giving talks like the one I attended.

    He put together a youtube course (hilariously titled "The Crash Course") that consists of 27 short videos that breaks down the current state of things (as of 2014, anyway) regarding the exponential growth and lack of sustainability in the US economy, energy and the environment. Despite the video series date being 4 years ago, his talk pretty much mirrored the video series, leading me to believe nothing major enough has happened to warrant a change of his opinions / outlooks / videos since then. At least nothing he bothered to mention.

    Link to the channel

    (Note - I have no association with this guy at all other than I saw him speak and watched the videos and thought they were interesting. He also sells a subscription to his website which is always a potential red flag, although he didn't come off like any typical shill I've ever seen, so take that for whatever it's worth).

    They start off pretty boring / basic to get viewers up to speed so that what he says makes sense to a lay person, but they very quickly start digging into some really worrying statistics and facts and correlations about what he believes the future has in store for us (short version: lots and lots of historically unprecedented changes / collapses across all 3 areas).

    I fully admit that I don't know enough to tell whether or not what this guy says is accurate or a pessimistic (mis)representation of facts. If I had to give the elevator pitch of my interpretation of him - I'd say it was like a doomsday prepper put down the glue, got sober, went to university, got a couple of scientific degrees, and then dedicated his life to running around the world giving talks on how anyone who isn't taking steps to minimize the impact of the impending doom is in for a pretty bad wake up call.

    I've never seen a room full of people more worried, troubled, and confused on what the hell they can do after a presentation before.

    As mentioned, I'm pretty ignorant about these things but it seemed like it was right up many of your alley's regarding talks of stock market movements, debt, gdp, inflation, crashes, real estate, etc...
     
  3. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Admin Post
    If you continually peddle doom-and-gloom, eventually you'll be right.

    Then you can claim in your marketing "I called it!"

    Myself and @JScott have been calling this in the last few months, not the last few years.

    Calling the next World Series winner during spring training is impressive.

    Calling a winner that will win "sometime within the next decade", not so much.

    Not dismissing what he says or predicts, just pointing out the old "a broken clock is right twice a day".

    When people make predictions, they always seem to have open-ended time frames.

    Don't say XYZ will go down 10%.

    Say XYZ will go down 10% by December 2018.

    Everyone does the former, leaving their predictions infinitely plausible. How convenient, eh?
     
  4. socaldude
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    socaldude Platinum Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    My short positions got their A$$ kicked today.

    My bias was that stocks would rally into December.

    I guess I should have done the oppossite haha.

    You need to be a contrarian of a contrarian :rofl:.

    But it does seem like the market is either trying to price in the political circus that will ensue or the peak of the business cycle which is approaching.
     
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  5. LuckyPup
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    I'm catching up on this thread, and you're not too far off. One thing I've learned is to never underestimate the powers-that-be and their ability to kick the can down the road in order to buy time.
     
  6. LuckyPup
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    LuckyPup Done Dicking Around Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Or a business that builds bunkers.
     
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  7. LuckyPup
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    LuckyPup Done Dicking Around Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Fascinating. Who's speculating?
     
  8. LuckyPup
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    LuckyPup Done Dicking Around Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I predict financial shenanigans with a slow burn from now until 2020, but the real serious sh*t won't happen until 3Q2019-2Q2020, as the election nears.

    I'm no economist, expert or quant, and this is just my gut.
     
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  9. LuckyPup
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    LuckyPup Done Dicking Around Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Thank you.
     
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  10. Tommo
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    Tommo Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    Like Harry Denton does every six months. Nearly bought his book ten years ago. He will be right sometime though as you said.
     
  11. LuckyPup
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    I'm familiar with Martenson and Adam Taggert, and I don't think they've been around enough to be put in the doomsayer category, at least not like some - Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, etc. Overall, I agree with their espoused goal of becoming more resilient in multiple ways.
     
  12. LuckyPup
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    You read my mind - Harry Dent immediately came to mind when I read that post by MJ.
     
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  13. ZF Lee
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    ZF Lee Platinum Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I don't think that I'm wrong to say that you are doomed everywhere and anytime if you toss money without a careful thought into the market!:hilarious:
     
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  14. LuckyPup
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    Now there's an accurate prediction! :smile:
     
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  15. Andreas Thiel
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    Andreas Thiel Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    The most vocal one is a German guy ... so all I could link to is in German and I don't think the book will be translated. Not even his Wikipedia article has been translated.

    Dirk Müller - Machtbeben

    He runs a website called cashkurs.de.
     
  16. LuckyPup
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    Danke schoen. That's the extent of my German, but thanks!
     
  17. MJ DeMarco
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    Sometimes the gut is a better predictor.

    As of now, the markets continue to slow bleed lower, led by perennial leaders such as AAPL, GOOG, FB, and AMZN.

    I will also remind everyone that the 2008 financial collapse/recession brewed, then accelerated in the fall (Sept/Oct) with significant fomenting in Nov/Dec. Could history be repeating?
     
  18. justonemore
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  19. Xeon
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    Xeon All Cars Kneel Before Pagani. Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    What I'm curious is, assuming that the world or the US goes into a recession next year.
    What should businesses (specifically B2C ecommerce ones) do?

    Would the best plan be to lie low, cut down on ads, cut down on sales targets, just do enough to survive and wait it out for a couple of years?
    Or do the opposite? E.g: go all in and big and heavy on driving sales and marketing?
     
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  20. jimmeboy
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    Keep your eye on your ROI and conversion metrics. As long as they continue to make sense and deliver profitable sales, there's no reason to scale back. Let your numbers do the talking!
     
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  21. Rivoli
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    So looks like no recession 2018. What’s your guys predictions for 2019? Which quarter do you think most likely to have the recession?
     
  22. Jaden Jones
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    Jaden Jones Igloo Builder Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Year isnt over yet lol
     
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  23. MJ DeMarco
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    You don't wake up one day and say, "Oh, this is a recession!"

    Recessions don't happen overnight. It's a slow boil.

    And the yield curve just inverted.

    The Treasury yield curve just inverted, sounding the alarm for recession
     
  24. ZF Lee
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    If the ads are on encouraging discretionary spending, yup, maybe cut them down.

    My hunch is that the more need-orientated businesses like health, education and protection (financial and physical) will have a boost. Can allocate more marketing dollars to that segement, but not nuclear-sized budgets lol.

    Also, any business that helps cut time efficiently, such as Grab and Google, will continue to have traction.

    In a recession, everyone will get into a f*cking panic. They'll start blaming and asking why, what, how, when. And they'll do something about it.

    They'll go get extra side gigs, buy only necessities or discounted offers, move towards DIY and so on.

    Having cash reserves and sufficient cashflow to meet a reduced cost measure certainly help to tide the storm.

    I would also be interested to look at which corporate giants out there have no pants on when the tide goes away, so to speak. :p
     
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  25. civilpro
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    You must be kidding.
     

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