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HOT TOPIC Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

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tylerwilkinson

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Any ammo purchased a year ago has grown in value by 200-300%. Online or in stores.

“Affordable” used car prices are up by a similar margin for private party sales. There are almost no DECENT 15-20 year old used pickup trucks under $3000. Mechanics specials are also way up. You can sell a non running vehicle for repair only for what a good daily beater cost a year ago.

And my house has apparently gone up in value by 30+%.
 

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jpl

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Well the house markets here is crazy as well. Not as crazy as you are telling but still quite expensive
Guess in Germany it depends on your area then. A friend of mine bought his house for 300k two years ago. He is now selling due to some private issues and got offers at over 500k...

Based on that (sorry for not understanding economics too much just yet) would it still be a smart move to buy fair priced real estate using low interest loans? If you technically owe less once hyperinflation and a currency exchange hits? I know this is rather speculative but I’m kind of in need of more living space (got kids) and there’s nothing up for rent which would be either affordable or big enough.
 
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RadicalShift

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Got it - but in your opinion would something like this MNT.TO also qualify as 'physical' where you own an 'exchange traded receipt' - Canadian Gold Reserves - Canadian Silver Reserves - Royal Canadian Mint | Réserve d'or canadienne - Réserve d'argent canadienne - Monnaie royale canadienne ?

My only concern with holding physical gold / silver is the risk of a black swan event of a break-in or such - guess I could get a bank safe deposit box as well though.
If you can't hold it in your hands, you don't own it. I wouldn't trust this or any other ETF that "acts" as a custodian/holder of your metals.


And I wouldn't trust any bank safety deposit boxes whatsoever! In a SHTF scenario, they could easily raid the boxes and leave IOU's for their "funny money". Safety deposit boxes aren't so safe.

Get a safe.
 

JScott

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Do you not think that, supply chain or not being the main reason, prices are still unlikely to correct downwards vs general pricing adjusting to match. It would seem that a temporary supply chain problems may be the trigger for inflation, but monetary supply increase is the fuel, and fear of inflation itself the catalyst.

Supply and demand is a pretty tried and true axiom in economics. What rationale would you propose for prices not dropping when supply increases?

Sure, businesses would love to arbitrarily raise prices, but that's not how it works. Business owners don't just get to say, "I'd like to raise prices today because I feel like making more money."

The market drives pricing, not business owners.

My feeling is that shit is going to hit the fan with prices at some point and governments will have no choice but to pull the interest rate hand brake on things. That's what I'm expecting the next crash is likely to look like. But I'm not a macro expert so may just be talking out my rear. Thoughts?

The whole point of raising interest rates (I'm assuming that's what you mean by "hand brake") is that it quells demand. It does this in two ways:

1. Credit is more expensive, so people buy less; and
2. Banks pay higher interest, which encourages people to save versus spend.

This reduction in demand -- based on my point above about pricing being driven by supply and demand -- will reduce prices.

But, that assumes that the increase in prices is being demand driven.

But, as we seem to agree, in this case, the increase in prices is supply driven.

Raising interest rates has no impact on supply (not technically true, but true enough), so increasing rates would have essentially no counter-inflationary effect in supply-constrained environment like the one we're in.

SUMMARY:

There's no doubt (in my mind) that we're going to see inflation simply based on the increase in the M1 and M2 money supplies. But, that's not what we're seeing today, and I don't expect we'll see that until demand increases dramatically. We'll see a pop in GDP before we see true cost-push inflation.

And if I had to bet, my bet would be 3-5 years from now before we start seeing true inflation not related to supply constraints.

That said, I'm guessing just like everyone else, so take everything I say for what it's worth...not much.
 

JScott

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Do you really think it's supply chain issues? And spike in demand? In the US, that doesn't start to happen until...like now. I don't want to turn this political but the RAPID increase in gas/oil prices is a direct result of shutting down the Keystone pipeline, imo.

Doesn't matter what I think. The experts don't believe that shutting down Keystone is the catalyst for increased prices. In fact, many believe that shutting down Keystone will preserve future US oil supply and would likely have the opposite effect.

Keystone wasn't expected to deliver any significant amount of oil for nearly a decade, so there's no logical explanation for how shutting it down would influence prices now. Nobody is buying 10 year futures on oil. Perhaps it impacts prices 5-10 years down the line, but it's not impacting prices today.

Additionally, keep in mind that US oil production has fallen by 2 million barrels per day over the last year. Demand is starting to rise now, but production can't increase overnight (that's not how oil wells work).

Long story short, prices are up because supply is down, demand is increasing, and it's winter (go look at some historical charts and see where oil prices tend to go this time of year).

Where prices are going over the next 6 to 12 months is anyone's guess.

That's always been the case.
 
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Marigold

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If you can't hold it in your hands, you don't own it. I wouldn't trust this or any other ETF that "acts" as a custodian/holder of your metals.


And I wouldn't trust any bank safety deposit boxes whatsoever! In a SHTF scenario, they could easily raid the boxes and leave IOU's for their "funny money". Safety deposit boxes aren't so safe.

Get a safe.
And a gun! :)
 

monfii

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But, that's not what we're seeing today, and I don't expect we'll see that until demand increases dramatically. We'll see a pop in GDP before we see true cost-push inflation.

Agreed. I think this inflation is really just a consequence of supply chain disruption + important consumption. Look at the chip shortage.

@WJK any thoughts on real estate?
 

Lyinx

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Supply and demand is a pretty tried and true axiom in economics. What rationale would you propose for prices not dropping when supply increases?

Sure, businesses would love to arbitrarily raise prices, but that's not how it works. Business owners don't just get to say, "I'd like to raise prices today because I feel like making more money."

The market drives pricing, not business owners.



The whole point of raising interest rates (I'm assuming that's what you mean by "hand brake") is that it quells demand. It does this in two ways:

1. Credit is more expensive, so people buy less; and
2. Banks pay higher interest, which encourages people to save versus spend.

This reduction in demand -- based on my point above about pricing being driven by supply and demand -- will reduce prices.

But, that assumes that the increase in prices is being demand driven.

But, as we seem to agree, in this case, the increase in prices is supply driven.

Raising interest rates has no impact on supply (not technically true, but true enough), so increasing rates would have essentially no counter-inflationary effect in supply-constrained environment like the one we're in.

SUMMARY:

There's no doubt (in my mind) that we're going to see inflation simply based on the increase in the M1 and M2 money supplies. But, that's not what we're seeing today, and I don't expect we'll see that until demand increases dramatically. We'll see a pop in GDP before we see true cost-push inflation.

And if I had to bet, my bet would be 3-5 years from now before we start seeing true inflation not related to supply constraints.

That said, I'm guessing just like everyone else, so take everything I say for what it's worth...not much.
I definitely agree with supply/demand driving prices,and I just had it hit home not long ago... labor is one of the biggest costs out there, right up with the shipping costs.

Fuel prices going up (IMO, of course) will continue to go up due to the new admin's hatred of oil, so the oil industry will need to spend more time to clean up it's things, which cost time and money, thereby increasing the cost

Shipping:
$20 Amazon item? you probably paid $10 in shipping ($4 from China, plus $2 to ship to Amazon warehouse, and $4 for the deliver truck to bring it to your house)

Labor: (it all comes down to labor costs at the end of the day)
$200 bookshelf? that's all labor. it cost money to pay the man that cut down the trees... and it cost more labor to make his chainsaw, and for the guy to bring it to the woodworking shop, and for the man that smoothed the wood, and for the man that made the machines to make the wood nice and smooth. it all comes down to labor.
 

Timmy C

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So let me get this straight.
Some of you think there is no inflation.

None what so ever even though they print and continue to print trillions of dollars worldwide.
 

Lyinx

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So let me get this straight.
Some of you think there is no inflation.

None what so ever even though they print and continue to print trillions of dollars worldwide.
just throwing my hat out there, I do think there is a slight inflation, but nothing close to the increased supply of dollars out there.
I figured we had a few days to an economic disaster in Feb/March last year when the shutdowns happened,
and boy was I ever wrong (and happy to be wrong)
I've given up trying to tell when the next disaster will happen, I'm busy making value over here and love it!
 

monfii

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So let me get this straight.
Some of you think there is no inflation.

None what so ever even though they print and continue to print trillions of dollars worldwide.
Inflation is a consequence of excess consumption compared to demand.

You can print as much as you want and give money to people, but if they dont spend any of it and hide it under their mattress instead, there won't be any inflation.

Inflation happens when people consume. Countries that saw high inflation as a result of printing were countries where people went to buy stuff with the money they received.

Economically speaking, giving people free money to spend will result in inflation if production does not increase comparatively. Where the money comes from does not matter. It can be printed or from Buffett's pocket, the result is the same.
 

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Timmy C

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Inflation is a consequence of excess consumption compared to demand.

You can print as much as you want and give money to people, but if they dont spend any of it and hide it under their mattress instead, there won't be any inflation.

Inflation happens when people consume. Countries that saw high inflation as a result of printing were countries where people went to buy stuff with the money they received.

Economically speaking, giving people free money to spend will result in inflation if production does not increase comparatively. Where the money comes from does not matter. It can be printed or from Buffett's pocket, the result is the same.
Well money supply and demand pull are driving factors of inflation.
 

monfii

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Well money supply and demand pull are driving factors of inflation.
Yes.

What is important to understand is that printing money per se does not drive inflation.

What drives inflation is (1) spending it and (2) not increasing production.

This explains why I am the only one on this planet to be a deflationist long-term. The West has a lifestyle it can't pay for, which is reflected in the declining purchasing power per capita, whose inflation and rampant debt are symptoms of.

Future generations will consume les because they will have less, and because the strength of their currency won't be as strong as before because they produce and export less as a result of delocalization. Lower consumption means lower prices and lower economic activity, which means rising unemployment and the whole thing feeds on itself.

Politicians try to avoid such a fate with "money printing", "quantitative easing", "investment bill". Whatever name you want to give it, it's the idea to buy your own goods because you no longer have customers to do so.

It can only take you so far though.

Edit: buy RE, farming land, gold, and BTC and save yourself and your family.
 

Brrr

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Supply and demand is a pretty tried and true axiom in economics. What rationale would you propose for prices not dropping when supply increases?
Rationale is:
  • Economies have become less efficient due to COVID, bigger mismatch between supply and demand, more stockpiling and other effects have disrupted natural relationships that have existed between Supply & Demand
  • Demand hasn't responded as it should have (reduced) due to increased monetary supply, as governments try to keep everything afloat and more money is sloshing around than ever
  • Lag between supply chain issues and price reflection
I would suggest that this has set off an inflationary spiral, that will be supported by continuedd government efforts to keep the economy floating.

But, that assumes that the increase in prices is being demand driven.

But, as we seem to agree, in this case, the increase in prices is supply driven.

I think here is our disagreeement, my hypothesis is that the initial reason for price increases was all supply side BUT that in an effort to keep the economy alive governments have increased money supply, this is what will fuel future inflationary pressure by creating artificial demand.

I.E. demand should have gone down due to increased prices due to supply problems but instead, central banks & governments have produced inflation by stimulating demand when the supply wasn't there.

Governments chose inflation over a permanently damaged economy.

There's no doubt (in my mind) that we're going to see inflation simply based on the increase in the M1 and M2 money supplies. But, that's not what we're seeing today, and I don't expect we'll see that until demand increases dramatically. We'll see a pop in GDP before we see true cost-push inflation.
Ok, I think we are saying almost the same things, but I would say we are seeing cost-push inflation.

Maybe it's the UK perspective because we are also seeing things like customs charges become a thing.

I would like to believe it is a temporary blip, but my worry is that the economic environment that has been created is not one where price is used to match demand and supply, but instead, demand can just be cranked up to keep the economy going, correct allocation of resources is an afterthought.

I think I've gone a bit in circles, so don't worry about replying. I just wanted to clarify a few of my ideas.
 

volodya

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So let me get this straight.
Some of you think there is no inflation.

None what so ever even though they print and continue to print trillions of dollars worldwide.
Timmy C,

To engage in a productive chat, can you please share what you do know about inflation? Please define it, explain how in your definition the printing of money guarantees inflation etc. I am turning this around on you because your short post comes off as if it is deadly obvious that any time there is "printing money" there must be inflation.

By the way, I don't know if anyone here is arguing there is no inflation at all ;) .
 

MrTrash757

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Real Estate is bonkers. Looking at getting our first property, a STR investment property.

I have one we are eying, where the seller was using it as a AirBNB (with quite a hefty profit), and wants out of the game. Sold for $100k in 2017. Listed for $200k today. This is a 900sq ft cabin from the 60's on a small lake in Michigan (not one of the Great Lakes).

You might ask, did they renovate the whole place?

No. Only the bathroom.

Does the value of everything included with the cabin justify the price?

No.

Now playing the long game to let it sit a bit before putting an offer in- we haven't even seen it either.

Viewed another cabin from the 60s, listed at $165k. Needed at least 20-30k in work. Sold for 89k in 2005.

Lumber, well that is another thing that irks me too.

Where I haven't seen it too much is food prices ironically.
 

RadicalShift

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Doesn't matter what I think.
Well since you shared what you thought about supply chain issues and demand spikes (not to mention that you believe killing the keystone pipeline hasn't effected the price of oil/gas), I thought asking was relevant. All good.
 

JScott

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Rationale is:
  • Economies have become less efficient due to COVID, bigger mismatch between supply and demand, more stockpiling and other effects have disrupted natural relationships that have existed between Supply & Demand
  • Demand hasn't responded as it should have (reduced) due to increased monetary supply, as governments try to keep everything afloat and more money is sloshing around than ever
  • Lag between supply chain issues and price reflection
I would suggest that this has set off an inflationary spiral, that will be supported by continuedd government efforts to keep the economy floating.

That argument assumes that once Covid effects go away (or are mitigated), our economy will continue to be irreparably damaged and things won't go back to working the way they've worked throughout history.

You could be right, but I don't see any reason to assume that anything has fundamentally changed over the past year in terms of our economy, other than the fact that the money supply is larger. Which will have a long-term impact on inflation/the economy, but I don't see any major short-term issues.

I guess we'll see...

I think here is our disagreeement, my hypothesis is that the initial reason for price increases was all supply side BUT that in an effort to keep the economy alive governments have increased money supply, this is what will fuel future inflationary pressure by creating artificial demand.

Agreed. There is most certainly a long-term inflationary concern.

I.E. demand should have gone down due to increased prices due to supply problems but instead, central banks & governments have produced inflation by stimulating demand when the supply wasn't there.

I'd argue demand *has* gone down. GDP is still down, right? Even despite higher prices?


Ok, I think we are saying almost the same things, but I would say we are seeing cost-push inflation.

I disagree that we're seeing cost-push inflation yet.

But, I do agree that we're not far off in opinion, and the end result is likely the same from both of our perspectives...

Maybe it's the UK perspective because we are also seeing things like customs charges become a thing.

I'm definitely US-centric in my take on things, so it's very possible that I'm just being ignorant with respect to any assumptions I'm making about economies of other countries...

I think I've gone a bit in circles, so don't worry about replying. I just wanted to clarify a few of my ideas.

Like you said, I think we're pretty close on our thinking...
 

JScott

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So let me get this straight.
Some of you think there is no inflation.

None what so ever even though they print and continue to print trillions of dollars worldwide.

"Inflation" is an overloaded term...

As was said by others in the thread, cost-push inflation is driven by demand, and without increased demand, you won't have inflation.

That doesn't mean we won't have prices increasing, but again, by most accepted definitions of inflation, you can have price increases without it being inflationary.

I'm sure there's some inflation going on today, and it's still likely higher than what the Fed would have us believe. But, I think it's hard to argue that the spike in prices we've seen recently is due to inflation.

All that said, I think there's a high probability for an increased rate of inflation in the next 5-10 years...
 

daivey

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What's happening in your area with respect to prices?

Food?
Housing?
Cost of Living?
Repair services?

Let's here some ground reports.
I'm in Toronto - Canada...

House prices are out of control in the city and in the suburbs. Average house is going for $1million or more.
Condo prices in the city have fully rebounded, and are at all time highs and making new highs daily.

I haven't noticed too much in "food inflation". I generally buy the same products on sale in weekly flyers...
Typically I'll buy chicken breast for $3.99 per pound, which is about regular price here. Most grocery stores have a rotation on sales... So every other week one of the majors has it at this price.

Red meat seems consistent in price.
Beef tenderloin usually goes for about $10 per pound when it's on sale - that's about 1 to 2 times per month. (this is the highest cut of beef).

Fish:
we don't eat a lot of fish cause of my wife being a shitty person.. but in general I've noticed that the 3 pack sea bass at costco is still about $25.. i think it's just around 3 lbs or so.

tuna cans:
I've noticed albacore is crazy expensive.
I remember getting is on sale at costco once a month or so for a 6 pack of tuna cans at about $12.. so about $2 per can for Albacore...
Now costco's selling it for like $14-$15 when it's on sale!

Vegetables:
tomatoes have been really expensive over the last 12 months. Typically I'd be able to find them for $1 per pound to $1.30 per pound... but on average I'm seeing them at $2 per pound or more.

pepers (red/green/yellow) have gone up in price.. can't really find sales on them anymore.
usually I'd be able to get a pack of 3 big yello/orange/red pepers for about $3 every week or so... now it's generally not on sale and hitting the $5+ mark.

Milk:
prices seem pretty stable. We get about 4 liters (just over a gallon) for about $3.99 to $4.99 depending on the brand.

Eggs:
these have gone up in the last 12 months.
On average I'd be able to get a a dozen eggs for $1.99 as a sale price.. generally it was a weekly sale at the grocery stores in the area.
Now it's average about $2.50 for a dozen.

Butter:
500 mL (2 cup bricks wrapped in foil) - costco sold these for about $3.75, about a year ago. With the occasional sale at $2.99.
Price at Costco is $4.25 now all the time.
Grocery stores have butter on sale LESS frequntly... I use to be able to find it on at least 1 grocers flyer (5 flyers average) at least weekly... Now it's about 1 time per month I can find it... and it's about $2.99 to $3.50...


So these are likely the items that most people can 'relate too'.

Overall, I've noticed FEWER sales of the "loss leaders".
Rising price in vegies.
Meats appear to be rising slowly.
 

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daivey

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"Inflation" is an overloaded term...

As was said by others in the thread, cost-push inflation is driven by demand, and without increased demand, you won't have inflation.

That doesn't mean we won't have prices increasing, but again, by most accepted definitions of inflation, you can have price increases without it being inflationary.

I'm sure there's some inflation going on today, and it's still likely higher than what the Fed would have us believe. But, I think it's hard to argue that the spike in prices we've seen recently is due to inflation.

All that said, I think there's a high probability for an increased rate of inflation in the next 5-10 years...
well JPOW keeps suggesting that the inflation is transitory..

I can see that in a few industries.

I'm not sure how it's 'transitory' in RE prices.

That being said, Lumber prices are up huuuuge... And yet, I was reading an article that Trees by the ton (for harvesting to use in lumber products) are at all time lows.

Personally I don't understand the disconnect in the price if material input is so low.
Are saw mills are hoarding product?
or is this because Covid created such a huge back log in workers?

I would think it's all assembly lines cutting/making wood... so realistically how backed up could you be that you have a price increase of 300%?

I just can't see how finished lumber products can be up 300% when wood product is at the cheapest ever.

There there is the "chip shortage".
This actually makes a bit of sense - given that people were home for 12 months and had to buy comptuers/monitors/and laptops to keep their kids busy....

So is that also transitory?

Is it short term transitory, or long term? Like why can't saw mills keep up with demand.
 

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On the topic of careers - do you guys think that business owners, specifically in online retail / e-comm, are in the best spot in the event of hyperinflation over a few years? Given they can relatively easily change their prices?

Compared to someone who works a 9-5? Obviously much harder to re-negotiate a salary. I'm wondering how and if wage increase ever happened during the 1970's inflation period - or if wage earners got screwed. The other problem here being 'official' inflation via CPI will always be lower than actual inflation.
 

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Semiconductor and microcontroller/microprocessor prices are up and supply chain issues are insane. Some previously common parts have multimonth-long lead times. I've heard that companies are hoarding supply to ensure they'll have enough material to cover at least the year (or as long as they can). As a hobbyist or small company you would usually order your circuit boards and components at the same time. Nowadays, you order whatever components you can find in stock en masse and design your board around that.

If you were "unlucky" enough to have an in-production product containing critical components with few suitable substitutes, your whole product line could halt if those components go out of stock. Ask me how I know...

The rare / hard to find / obsolete part market is golden right now - at the company I work for a $2 connector we needed went out of stock everywhere just before a deadline. Only place we could find them charged us $20 a pop for an obsolete but compatible version of it and we had to eat the cost.
Currently in my local stock portfolio, semiconductor stocks go brr brr...:playful:

I think we are just a week or so into Tech Boom Round 2 after last month's corrections...I have plans to sell into strength at my typical 25% target profit, but this time I want to catch a lack of demand signal on the Volume Spread Analysis chart...that might be a more ideal exit point.
 

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So today I heard that some Toyota dealers are willing to pay sticker price for a used 2018 4runner. I thought it was a scam until I looked up prices of used 4runners and there are some asking $45k for a used one that stickered at $38k 2 years ago.

Then I looked up 4 local Toyota dealers to see how many 2021 4runners they had in stock. The 4 dealers I looked up had a combined total of five 2021 new 4runners. So there is my anecdotal evidence of a supply chain issue.

Here's a screenshot of a couple listings. Sticker was around $40k, but I think I paid $36.300 for mine and was $43k out the door.

2.png
 
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MitchC

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So today I heard that some Toyota dealers are willing to pay sticker price for a used 2018 4runner. I thought it was a scam until I looked up prices of used 4runners and there are some asking $45k for a used one that stickered at $38k 2 years ago.

Then I looked up 4 local Toyota dealers to see how many 2021 4runners they had in stock. The 4 dealers I looked up had a combined total of five 2021 new 4runners. So there is my anecdotal evidence of a supply chain issue.

I bought a VW Amarok recently after test driving the new Toyota hilux, Ford ranger, and Nissan navara.

None of these companies had any stock in the country. Most had a 1-2 month wait. You pretty much had to pay sticker price as how can you negotiate when they have nothing to sell. I may be wrong but I think the 2020 hilux rugged x was 68000 (could be wrong about this number) and the same model in 2021 was 75000, with a slightly tuned engine and not really any other changes.

The salespeople explained that the parts come from all over Europe and if one factory closes that makes one part it halts production for the everything.

In Australia they let people take $10000 out of thier retirement fund and right after that you could not find a used car for under $10000 as they all sold.

People aren’t spending money on holidays and they are travelling locally instead so it makes sense that 4wds etc are selling.

Boats too are out of stock everywhere and over priced.

All of this kind of points to a supply and demand imbalance not necessarily inflation but the easy access to cheap money is definitely a factor.
 

Lyinx

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I would think it's all assembly lines cutting/making wood... so realistically how backed up could you be that you have a price increase of 300%?
I've never been to a plywood factory but have seen some sawmills (not huge production) and they still need manpower on the floor. Granted, one man can now do what it would have taken 200 men to do a century ago, but you still need that one man.

Same thing happens in the lumbering industry, you still need that one man... and it's harder than ever to get people to go out and physically work, they would all rather work at their nice cubicles (self included)

I see the day coming when physical labor people will get paid more than computer workers (honestly, it's happening already in some places)
 

Lyinx

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hyperinflation, supply/demand... whatever you want to call it... here is something that I'm seeing:

We buy coated webbing products, made in the USA, with materials sourced from the US and (of importance) some products used to make it come from Texas. the recent cold snap cut supply lines in Texas and are creating shortages. This company used to get our product out within 4 weeks (pre-covid) and could do quick runs if needed (as in, a few days, if it was very urgently needed) Now, we are out to 8 weeks on most products (due to demand) and even further (due to supply chain disruption)

Stainless hardware comes from overseas (used to be China years ago, but recently got switched to places like Thialand/Tiawan/etc) and are starting to hit Stainless shortages (due to starting up production) and we run out of a certain part every once in a while. hard to source alternate suppliers for products.

Poly lumber for outdoor furniture: FIL works at an outdoor furniture place, he says they don't have a lot of problems getting things, but every once in a while they have to hold off on a certain color due to the mill not getting them that color right away.

Lumber: I heard of a shed shop lately that was working off of their last skid of plywood when they got replenished. these shops usually have a few semi loads of lumber sitting, and they were down to last skid (only minutes of work)

that's my boots on the ground answer for supply chain side, I'll let you decide what that does to prices eventually.
 

Everyman

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None what so ever even though they print and continue to print trillions of dollars worldwide.
This is the definition of inflation. Increase in money supply. Although FED$ is not money, just currency...

There is only one real money that has survived the test of time...

Anyway...

One thing I wouldn't agree... They don't print now. Just press the button and add zeros on a computer screen. Or a mobile phone screen.

Below - rise from FED$ 0.9bn to 7.7bn -


Capture.JPG
 

JScott

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I'm not sure how it's 'transitory' in RE prices.

New construction prices are so high because builders are unable to keep up with demand due to lack building materials, so builders are raising prices to try to quell demand.

Once materials are more readily available (and prices correct), builders will be able to ramp up production and will have to drop prices to account for the increased supply.


That being said, Lumber prices are up huuuuge... And yet, I was reading an article that Trees by the ton (for harvesting to use in lumber products) are at all time lows.

Yes, the timber growers are getting screwed. They have plenty of supply. The bottleneck is with the sawmills. They can't keep up.

With mills being shut down for several months, and with new construction increasing demand (along with an increased demand for furniture and appliances, which ship on wooden palettes), demand for finished lumber is much higher than supply.


Personally I don't understand the disconnect in the price if material input is so low.
Are saw mills are hoarding product?
or is this because Covid created such a huge back log in workers?

See my comment above. These are two separate pieces of the supply chain -- growers and finishers. The growers have plenty of supply and are getting screwed because the mills can't increase output. In other words, there is no additional demand on growers from the mills, so the mills can't raise prices.

But, the mills are low on supply, with tremendous demand from builders and other end-users. So, they can raise prices. And they are...


I would think it's all assembly lines cutting/making wood... so realistically how backed up could you be that you have a price increase of 300%?

I just can't see how finished lumber products can be up 300% when wood product is at the cheapest ever.

Again, see above... It makes perfect sense...
 

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