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HOT TOPIC Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

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MJ DeMarco

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

I've extracted some of the posts from the other INFLATION thread -- please use this thread to POST YOUR EXPERIENCE in your area/country/city of higher prices.

The mainstream narrative is that inflation is under control -- I contend that it is running in the double-digits and as always, the media and their sycophants are lying.

Of course, if you have a local experience of LOWER PRICES, feel free to post that too.

The only place I've found lower prices are in consumer electronics like televisions. Got make that propaganda easily accessible!
 

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Talking about inflation... Im in Idaho, probably the gnarliest housing market in the country.

I almost bought this POS warehouse for 3M last year, owner got called feet... Sold it 1 day on market this past week for 4M... 3m was absolutely batshit

The house I bought last March for 230 I could sell tomorrow for 530.

Houses go 50-100k over asking with 10+ offers within the first week here. Im not exaggerating.

Own assets.... businesses, crypto, real estate, stocks. Cash is literally 50% more worthless than it was a year ago
 

JScott

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Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

There's a big difference between asset inflation and CPI inflation... The Fed measures CPI inflation.

And as far as I can tell, for commodities that haven't had major supply chain disruptions due to Covid, we're not seeing out-of-control inflation. This is true for most commodities...

Gas is no more expensive than it was two years ago at this time.

Milk is right around 2015 prices.

New cars are right around 2015 prices.

Pick your favorite commodity that doesn't have a fragile supply chain, and prices are most likely not at an all time high (and may even be at an all-time low). Of course, there are exceptions... And most of those exceptions are well explained by supply chain disruptions.

As for asset inflation, we're seeing lots of that. Interestingly, the value of the equities markets has increased by about the same amount as the M2 currency supply has increased over the past 12 months.

And real estate values have increased tremendously as supply levels are lower than they've been in over a decade.

And speculative investments are through the roof.

Coincidence that lack of supply is pushing up prices or that stimulus money flowing to corporations and the wealthy is propping up equities and speculative investments? I'll let you decide... :)

Regardless, if you think hyper-inflation is here, I would suggest putting every penny you have into hard assets. Buy lots of gold and crypto to trade with, and make sure you stock up on guns and ammo to protect your physical holdings.

Okay, now while everyone is busy screaming about the sky falling, I'm going to get back to making shitloads of money...
 
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MJ DeMarco

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A 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%.

LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.
 

PeterBoss

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:



Which means absolutely nothing.

When government/politicians who make the laws are not subject to their laws, allowing themselves to go bankrupt would be seen as a means to an end to leverage the crisis for more power, and likely a new fiat debt scheme. Simply put, Kings and Queens will allow whatever they want to happen because in the end, they're the ones the hold the puppet strings. People who control the rigged game won't allow themselves to be the losers.

Kinda like arbitrarily releasing and ending all student loan debts simply because you find it prudent to do so.

They'd do the same for themselves.

I'm guessing the end game here is a massive crisis resulting into the emergence of a new fiat while bitcoin would undergo either a ban, or a massive government regulation to take it over - Americans and Canadians!! Introducing, the New Ameridollar! Exchange 1000 of your old dollars, for 1 new Ameridollar! Stores will no longer accept your old USD starting Jan 1, 2023! Convert your dollars now!
As someone who lived a fair share of time in South America, I've seen this happen. I've also seen what 40-50% inflation means.
This is EXACTLY how it goes down. They just scratch a bunch of zeroes from the former currency, call the new one a fancier name and, of course, profit from all the suckers that were holding either the currency or any kind of credit denominated in it.
Which goes again to what we were discussing above: as long as you are able to hold anything different than the devaluated currency, then you'll be a winner. If you had outrageous levels of debt in said currency, you'll also be a winner as you will be able to pay it back at a heavy discount.
For eg. If you had 1000 sh*t coins at 1 USD, you now have 1M Ameridollars and if you had a debt for 1000 USD, you now only owe 1 Ameridollar, which should be relatively easy to pay with your sh*t coins.
You'll also be able to buy A LOT of defaulted assets from people, as not all debt is denominated in the now defunct currency and not all interest rates are fixed (specially inflation adjusted loans will be FUBAR).

Having said all of the above, inflation at the beginning always boosts the financial markets, as people try to park their money anywhere other than their wallets. Eventually it hurts companies, as there is no real growth and they start 'underperforming' expectations.

Guess we'll have to wait and see. As the saying goes: markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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So, is there a safe place to store a bunch of cash?

I'm looking to dump cash into a large property that I can deem my primary residence, not as an investment, but merely as an insurance policy. If I get caught buying at the top, I don't mind losing a few million since it will be home I plan to live in for the rest of my life.

Unfortunately, here's just a little insight into how CRAZY the RE market is.

Saw a house in SLC that came up for sale. Mind you, it was listed for $4.8M and these higher price ranges (at least in the past) tend to stay on the market for a few weeks. It was a bit out of my budget but I'm chomping at the bit to unwind cash so I decided I would go look at it. Before I could even book a flight and get more details on it, it went Under Contract.

Even in these high prices ranges, houses are flying off the market. Bidding wars are not happening just at the $500K level, it is now transpiring in the mid-7 figure range.

In similar vain, I saw houses that didn't sell two years ago listed @ $2M now being relisted at $3.5M. Why not? If you can make $1.5M doing nothing in two years, can you blame them? But inflation is well contained.
 

RadicalShift

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Got it - but in your opinion would something like this MNT.TO also qualify as 'physical' where you own an 'exchange traded receipt' - Canadian Gold Reserves - Canadian Silver Reserves - Royal Canadian Mint | Réserve d'or canadienne - Réserve d'argent canadienne - Monnaie royale canadienne ?

My only concern with holding physical gold / silver is the risk of a black swan event of a break-in or such - guess I could get a bank safe deposit box as well though.
If you can't hold it in your hands, you don't own it. I wouldn't trust this or any other ETF that "acts" as a custodian/holder of your metals.


And I wouldn't trust any bank safety deposit boxes whatsoever! In a SHTF scenario, they could easily raid the boxes and leave IOU's for their "funny money". Safety deposit boxes aren't so safe.

Get a safe.
 

RadicalShift

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through a reputed ETF or is physical really the best option for gold and silver?
If you plan on holding Gold or Silver, PHYSICAL ONLY! Anything else is fantasy because you own NOTHING! It's akin to holding Cryptocurrencies on Robinhood or Webull (i.e. you don't "hold" anything).
 

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JScott

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Not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread yet, but a builder client of mine told me there are only a handful of sawmills left in America, and last summer's fires damaged two of them. Last I heard, they had not been brought back online, supply chain issues being what they are, replacement parts are difficult to get, mills have a waiting list to get the parts, but this information is a couple months old.

The whole story had a very Atlas Shrugged feel to it.

Exactly. As I mentioned earlier, the bottleneck isn't in lumber. It's specifically in the finishing of the lumber.

That's why growers are making less money than usual (little demand from the mills), but the mills are charging ridiculous prices (high demand from end-users).
 

Rwill

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well JPOW keeps suggesting that the inflation is transitory..

I can see that in a few industries.

I'm not sure how it's 'transitory' in RE prices.

That being said, Lumber prices are up huuuuge... And yet, I was reading an article that Trees by the ton (for harvesting to use in lumber products) are at all time lows.

Personally I don't understand the disconnect in the price if material input is so low.
Are saw mills are hoarding product?
or is this because Covid created such a huge back log in workers?

I would think it's all assembly lines cutting/making wood... so realistically how backed up could you be that you have a price increase of 300%?

I just can't see how finished lumber products can be up 300% when wood product is at the cheapest ever.

There there is the "chip shortage".
This actually makes a bit of sense - given that people were home for 12 months and had to buy comptuers/monitors/and laptops to keep their kids busy....

So is that also transitory?

Is it short term transitory, or long term? Like why can't saw mills keep up with demand.
I live in B.C, the largest lumber producing jurisdiction in North America. The land is Crown land (owned by the province) so to log it you pay a fee per tree to the government. That fee is basically based on what the market was at 6 months prior.
So lumber was high about 2 years ago, bumping up the stumpage fee, then it tanked but the government refused to lower the stumpage. Many of the saw mills shut down temporary (some permanently due to weak future forcasts of supply) and many of the saw mills that stayed open refused to fill their log yards due to the cost of raw logs. Most mills didn't bid on sections of government land to log in the shoulder season.
Weak prices were forcast to last through into 2020.
Fast forward to January and Covid started to roll out. Most mills shut down with the rest of industry out of safety concerns.
Once they opened back up they had empty yards, no supply lined up and rising demand. Basically they were caught completely off guard and a 4 month production window was missed. Since then contractors and retailers have been bidding up the available stock.
I predict that in about 4 months it will come back to a semblance of normal as production catches up, as well as its now cost feasible to ship lumber from Europe.

OSB and plywood however, those are caused by a shortage in the glue used to manufacturer it. Until that supply line comes back on track prices will remain high.


Just what I've noticed living in a lumber producing town
 

monfii

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I have made the case in the past that this extreme printing wasn't gonna cause a weakening of the strength of the US dollar. Let me show you why.

How do you measure the value of the USD?

Since we're talking about printing-induced inflation, we need to measure the value of the USD against other currencies to see if indeed, excess USD volume will debase the currency.

Let's imagine that 1 EUR = 1.25 USD

The FED prints 1 trillion USD. The ECB prints 0,9 trillion EUR.

Has the USD lost value compared to the EUR?

Let's do the math: 1 trillion x 1 USD = 1 trillion USD
0,9 trillion x 1 EUR = 0,9 trillion EUR = 1,1125 trillion USD.

Surprise!!! The USD actually "gained value" compared to the EUR, since the ECB printed more.

In real life, the value of a currency depends on MUCH MORE than just its volume. As long as external actors are buying your currency, you can allow yourself to print. Problem arise when people stop buying it....

Side note: this is just an example, I don't know if the ECB actually printed more or less than the FED.

What I do know though, is that while the FED did print tones of money, the USD has never made up for such a small part of worldwide currency reserve, currently making up for 59%. That means that comparatively to their original volume of currency, other central banks printed much more than the FED has.

I wouldn't worry too much about the US economy.

Companies and government alike want to take manufacturing home (or at least, out of the hands of China), the economy is still leading the world in terms of innovation, people are still working and consuming as hard as before, you gonna have a giant stimulus plan to change the electrical grid and infrastructures, and the USD still appears much stronger than the rest of currencies worldwide (*Italy's shadow has entered the chat*).

I do think that the inflation you are perceiving is simply due to excess demand compared to available supply.

Ironically, the big risk in this pandemic wasn't printing a ton of money. It was preventing people from working.

As Elon Musk would say" "if you don't make stuff, there is no stuff".

If there is less stuff, the price increases.

Simple.
 

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I don't know MJ and he didn't put me up to this; I am 100% asking legitimate questions on my own so don't blame him.

Not sure why you would think that.

I was being sarcastic. If MJ didn't want me here, I'm sure he'd have no problem letting me know.

He doesn't need you policing the forum for him. And while I could be wrong, I'm guessing he probably wouldn't be very happy about it you doing it...


Anyway, maybe you should read those books - they're pretty good!

I'm sure they are great. That's why I recommend them to others.

But given where I am in my professional career, I don't think they'd add much value.

I've run 9-figure businesses, I've been part of 10-figure acquisitions, I control nearly 9-figures in investments, and I sit on the board of a half-dozen startups.

Nothing against the books (again, I'm quite positive they're great), but I'm a good bit past the point where the value I'd get from them is worth the time I'd have to invest reading them...


As for hurting your feelings, looks like I did already?

No doubt. I'm rethinking all my life choices based on this conversation.


I only poke fun because you seem to have such a huuuuge impression of yourself. Like, bigger than anybody else I've met on this forum, even the owner! LOL

You know, I once claimed on this forum that much of my success came from luck. I took a lot of shit for that from people who claimed that luck has nothing to do with success.

So, now I claim that all my success comes from me being super awesome at all this business and investing stuff, because if it's not luck, clearly it must be my awesomeness.

But, that seems to bother people as well...

I guess just can't make anyone happy... Luckily, I don't care.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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GROUND REPORT:

I looked at a house in Scottsdale in 2018 that was listed for $1.39M. As you can see it sold it for $1.375.

The new owners painted the walls and changed the flooring. Nothing else was done. No kitchen upgrades, no new appliances, no walls torn down, nothing.

They relisted it for $4.5M and wanted to make $3M in 3 years for essentially doing nothing but sitting on their a$$.

Forced to reality, they now are being reasonable and have lowered the price, only wanting to make $2.5M in 3 years. Why have a job or a business? Just paint some walls and you can be a multimillionaire in just a few short years! :rofl:


1618502290308.png
 

monfii

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1. Renting a room in Brussels for students (or anyone else for that matter): +22%

Last year, you'd have prices averaging 450 euros per month, especially in apartments where you'd have several rooms. Now, these are priced at 550 euros a month. I have seen rooms for 680 euros - ROOMS, NOT STUDIOS - in Brussels, which is insane. I know people renting for 550+ euros rooms in a 7-bedrooms houses.

The spike in prices arrived after the quarantine, in a time when the demand is actually LOWER for rooms.

Go figure.

When I was studying in Rotterdam, rents DOUBLED in-between 2015 and 2018, and the whole RE took 30%.

I had warned my mother who was looking to invest that it was going to happen, but she hadn't believed me. Too bad for her.

2. Phones and computers: -?%

Xiaomi has made an AMOLED screen phone for less than 200 euros. I feel smartphones keep on getting cheaper. Not computers, though.

In 2014, I bought a Lenovo laptop, 15 inches screen, core i3 processor, HD screen for 395 euros. 7 years later, the beast is still running.

I bought a new laptop in July 2020. AMD Ryzen 5 (4000 series), 13 inches screen. Price tag: 700 euros. It's a much better and faster computer, but I would have probably paid the likes of 550-600 euros for such machine in 2014. Inflation: +21%

3. Food: +18% on average


About one year ago, my Carrefour (Walmart equivalent) ran a giant advertising campaign. DECREASE OF PRICES ON 1000 PRODUCTS. And it was true. My bacon went from 2.5 euros to 2.3 or so.

No less than two weeks later, that same bacon had gone up to 2.9 euros.

I don't know if you want to compute the increase from 2.5 or 2.3 onward since this strategy had been duly planned by the company, so let's do both: 16% and 26% respectively.

My meat package I used to buy for 34 euros went to 39 a couple of weeks after I had noticed it to be unusually cheap (must have been November 2019). It remained steady since, but they replaced the burgers they were giving out with some other stuff I don't remember. +14%

4. Bitcoin: +833%


Lmao


Conclusion:

Despite the signs, I am not convinced that inflation is here to stay.
I am still persuaded we are headed for deflation long-term because we won't be able to sustain equal level of consumption as production per capita is not increasing fast enough. China is done selling stuff on the cheap which will drive prices up, preventing even more people than before from buying. WHen you produce and no one buys your stuff, you whether stop producing, which creates deflation at the beginning of the supply chain, or you decrease your prices.

The RE market (in Brussels at least) will crash and the impact will be stronger than the asteroid's that killed dinosaurs.

A lot of people will lose their jobs in the post-corona world (in the HORECA especially). Growth stopped a long-time ago in the western developed countries. People are not having babies to sustain/increase consumption. And they become warier and warier of conspicuous consumption.

I don't really know where we are headed, but one constant seems clear. Whether prices inflate or deflate, purchasing power of slowlaners will decrease.
 

SammyGlick

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Talking to the factory I work with in China, the prices for raw plastics are increasing significantly. I'm told that prices are increasing so quickly that suppliers are unwilling to guarantee prices more than a few weeks out.

What is interesting is that the factory owner (who has 30 years in the business) says that for the first time, he does not understand what is driving the price increases. Obviously, there are lots of factors that could be short-term and COVID related but he does not believe they explain what he is seeing. Fortunately raw plastic constitutes a small fraction of the final price of the injected moulded parts that I buy. However, it still all adds up.

Most of the other items I purchase (primarily batteries, alternators and electronic components) do not seem to be rising in price significantly once you allow for the change in the value of the RMB relative to the USD. Although, labour costs are still rising year on year and I do agree with an earlier post that I think the days of China being a reliable venue for cheap manufacturing are numbered.

The most disturbing inflation I have seen is in freight prices. While this could simply be blamed on a short-term mismatch of demand and supply, my sense is that carriers have realised they can get away with these higher prices and that it will be a long time before they return to pre-COVID levels.

In short - based on what I have seen, I definitely think inflation is on the way. I don't know enough about economics to speculate as to whether hyper-inflation in consumer goods is likely (as others have noted hyper-inflation of assets has been happening for a while!) but I think the days of 0-2% inflation are over. Printing money combined with interest as zero must have economic consequences?
 

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Semiconductor and microcontroller/microprocessor prices are up and supply chain issues are insane. Some previously common parts have multimonth-long lead times. I've heard that companies are hoarding supply to ensure they'll have enough material to cover at least the year (or as long as they can). As a hobbyist or small company you would usually order your circuit boards and components at the same time. Nowadays, you order whatever components you can find in stock en masse and design your board around that.

If you were "unlucky" enough to have an in-production product containing critical components with few suitable substitutes, your whole product line could halt if those components go out of stock. Ask me how I know...

The rare / hard to find / obsolete part market is golden right now - at the company I work for a $2 connector we needed went out of stock everywhere just before a deadline. Only place we could find them charged us $20 a pop for an obsolete but compatible version of it and we had to eat the cost.
 

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I live in Poland - Warsaw. The government reports that inflation is officially 3% and it is really over 7%. The costs of services become very expensive - especially hairdressers, dentists and construction costs.
People in Poland are afraid that there may be a repeat of what was here 30 years ago where money lost its value and everyone was a "millionaire" and bread cost 100,000.

Unfortunately, socialists rule here, as in the rest of Western Europe.

I have savings of about 50,000 dollars (a lot of money in Poland, earnings 5 times less than in the US) and I have no idea what to do with it.
 

biophase

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So today I heard that some Toyota dealers are willing to pay sticker price for a used 2018 4runner. I thought it was a scam until I looked up prices of used 4runners and there are some asking $45k for a used one that stickered at $38k 2 years ago.

Then I looked up 4 local Toyota dealers to see how many 2021 4runners they had in stock. The 4 dealers I looked up had a combined total of five 2021 new 4runners. So there is my anecdotal evidence of a supply chain issue.

Here's a screenshot of a couple listings. Sticker was around $40k, but I think I paid $36.300 for mine and was $43k out the door.

2.png
 
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MJ DeMarco

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What's happening in your area with respect to prices?

Food?
Housing?
Cost of Living?
Repair services?

Let's here some ground reports.
 

smhatre

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Chapwood Index - The Real Cost of Living Increase Index Vs Consumer Price Index - Founded by Ed Butowsky -
somewhat akin to shadowstats - not sure if it's just me but the website doesn't load properly in the recent months, don't know why. Related article: Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds

What would be the best way to protect your wealth / cash ?

Buy physical gold ? Buy commodity ETFs ? Continue investing into / growing a cash-generating business?

I'm already in crypto but wondering where else to diversify - ideal would prefer not to buy a house / real estate at the moment (crazy market in Canada), unless I partnered with a friend do so - wondering if that would be a smart idea.
I put some in Gold as insurance against the fiat currency and keep adding to it every year. I know the real estate prices are really all across Canada but look outside of the high priced markets like toronto and Vancouver. Maybe calgary. I bought a house on windsor recently for 505k the idea is that even if i get a rent of 1400 I dont have to pay any Emi from my pocket, the tenant pays it for me. I shoukd easily get me a rent of 1900 though currently. Even if there is recession if not 1900 i should get a rent of 1400 and i should be able to wait out 10 yrs if required. And on top of it the Governments across the world are ready to throw the helicopter money.
 

YanC

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Currently doing a huge (for me) rehab on an apartment building (6 units), plumber said we had to quickly decide which equipments (water heaters...) we would be using as suppliers were raising their prices significantly and he needed to order ASAP (this is in France).
 

tylerwilkinson

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Any ammo purchased a year ago has grown in value by 200-300%. Online or in stores.

“Affordable” used car prices are up by a similar margin for private party sales. There are almost no DECENT 15-20 year old used pickup trucks under $3000. Mechanics specials are also way up. You can sell a non running vehicle for repair only for what a good daily beater cost a year ago.

And my house has apparently gone up in value by 30+%.
 

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Lyinx

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This is the definition of inflation. Increase in money supply. Although FED$ is not money, just currency...

There is only one real money that has survived the test of time...

Anyway...

One thing I wouldn't agree... They don't print now. Just press the button and add zeros on a computer screen. Or a mobile phone screen.

Below - rise from FED$ 0.9bn to 7.7bn -


View attachment 37519
I can help your fears along with the fact that there is a crapton of money around...
Screenshot_9.png

Notice where it starts increasing in supply of dollars? you can barely see it going up in 1970- but now its even higher... its called exponential, and it looks terrible... but it's nothing new (and yes, I do realize the chart doesn't show the steep jump that 2020-2021 should show there... I haven't found any chart that shows that part yet)
so, time to be concerned? history will tell... until then, nobody knows. people have been crying that it's the end of money for a long time and it hasn't happened (yet).
 

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That being said, Lumber prices are up huuuuge... And yet, I was reading an article that Trees by the ton (for harvesting to use in lumber products) are at all time lows.

Personally I don't understand the disconnect in the price if material input is so low.
Are saw mills are hoarding product?
or is this because

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread yet, but a builder client of mine told me there are only a handful of sawmills left in America, and last summer's fires damaged two of them. Last I heard, they had not been brought back online, supply chain issues being what they are, replacement parts are difficult to get, mills have a waiting list to get the parts, but this information is a couple months old.

The whole story had a very Atlas Shrugged feel to it.
 

JScott

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I heard that 20% of all USD in circulation was “printed” in 2020. Does anyone have a source for this info? How does one go to verify this type of claim? I’m not an economist and Google leads to just articles, not easy to follow the rabbit hole.

The M2 money supply measures the amount of currency actually in circulation. You can see all Fed data on this site: Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed.

Here are details about the M2 supply:


And here's an article from last year with some more info (though keep in mind the data is old -- M2 has increased significantly since then)...

 

JScott

Legendary Contributor
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That makes sense but...

This is a forum for those books, isn't it?

Why do you come here? Self promotion for your books?

Wow, what's with the passive aggressiveness here today?!?!?

Let me suggest a good rule of thumb (and one I like to follow myself): If you're gonna be an a**hole, at least don't be an ignorant a**hole. It's a bad combination.

To provide a bit of history and hopefully cure your ignorance, The Millionaire Fastlane came out about 3 years after I joined this forum (and after this forum was created). MJ wrote TMF a few years after the forum was created...

That said, if @MJ DeMarco prefers the forum to only be about the books (or for those who have read the books), that's his choice. I assume he'll chime in if that's the case... It's his forum, and if he ever even hints that I shouldn't be here, I will happily go away.

But, believe it or not, there are some people here who have gotten value from the thousands of posts I've made over the past decade. There are people I met on this forum that I've mentored in real life. There are people on this forum I've done deals with, that I've invested with/in, and who I continue to advise.

If you haven't taken any value from my contributions, consider that perhaps that's not my fault? Or just ignore me. I promise you won't hurt my feelings.

As for self-promotion of my books, I was here 5 years before I wrote my first book, and the vast majority of my thousands of posts were from those first five years. Though perhaps I just spent hundreds of hours writing content in hopes that a half-decade later I'd write a book about a subject that isn't very popular here and I'd mention it every few months; I'll let you decide if that's a reasonable explanation or not.

Btw, I can count on one hand the number of threads where I've mentioned my books in this forum without someone else mentioning them or asking about them. And, btw, if I never make another penny from my books, it won't impact my life.

All that said, it sounds like you are concerned about whether I should be here or not. Here's an idea: Perhaps you should grab lunch with MJ and you guys can chat about whether I should stay or go. I'm sure he'll appreciate your input. Let me know what you two decide...
 
Last edited:

JordanK

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Ireland
Value of Irish household savings surpasses GDP of Latvia | BreakingNews.ie

The price of everything has gone up in Ireland. Houses going on the market for 299k selling for 460k. My meal prep & delivery company increased their prices, gas prices, Brexit happened in the UK so all our imports have customs tax now.

I think it's a combination of:

- Stimulus worldwide (USA gives stimmies, Bitcoin price rises, Irish person cashes out bitcoin and buys house/car. Multiply this around the world as people in poor countries bought these crypto assets too. It is disturbing their local economic systems.

- Global supply chain problems due to Covid19.

- Companies/Countries trying to reshore their production instead of getting it done abroad. The manufacturing industry in many western countries are terrible. Even if in Ireland we do high end manufacturing, a lot of the parts that facilitate that process are made abroad.

- Lack of supply in the housing market due to not enough building. Too much bureaucracy.

All of these things converging together.

I don't think we'll see big effects until most of the world is out of lockdown. We're still hunkered down here in Ireland unfortunately. Businesses aren't open and 1/4 of the country is on generous government welfare. We can only afford this due to the increased taxation collection on the multinationals based here who have increased profits during the pandemic.
 

volodya

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A 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%.

LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.
MJ,

Lumber is more expensive because covid curbed production and distribution networks. All products are rising in prices because of this.

RE (one could argue) is going up because people are going out less, eating at home (it's a pandemic after all), buying fewer suits (while working from home) etc. Meaning that consolidation of capital combined with unprecedented stimulus and central banks printing money is creating availability of cheap credit.

Yes, it should be inflationary in nature. But it is not guaranteed to be so. The other way out of the box is through GDP growth, increase in production and productivity.

The question is - which one is more probable? Unfortunately, I think inflation is a more probable outcome. I am not sure I'd go as far as hyperinflation. Having lived (in another country) through it, I think the good old regular inflation will do just fine!
 

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