Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[Andreas Thiel]

Has anybody looked into (and thought about) the Bank Term Funding Program: Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors?

Do I understand this correctly?
It seems like a pretty sweet deal - not having to put up the "fair" collateral. Won't there be arbitrage opportunities? Won't all banks want to get their hands on these while reassuring customers that it is just a precaution?
It also means liquidity ... so fuel for the inflation fire? They set aside 25 billion (basically nothing, depending on how big this can get) for the case that - after the one year - these loans are in the nagative?

Is there a limit to how big this can get?

 

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[WJK]

Has anybody looked into (and thought about) the Bank Term Funding Program: Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors?

Do I understand this correctly?
It seems like a pretty sweet deal - not having to put up the "fair" collateral. Won't there be arbitrage opportunities? Won't all banks want to get their hands on these while reassuring customers that it is just a precaution?
It also means liquidity ... so fuel for the inflation fire? They set aside 25 billion (basically nothing, depending on how big this can get) for the case that - after the one year - these loans are in the nagative?

Is there a limit to how big this can get?

They did the same thing in 2008.

 

[Runum]

Here's a little bit of history for those with a short memory.

Age of Easy Money | FRONTLINE

Watch FRONTLINE's documentary about how the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and pulling back on the monetary experiment that it started in 2008 and what it means that the era may be over.

www.pbs.org

 

[socaldude]

Here's a little bit of history for those with a short memory.

Great to see a comment from you Greg.

I think 2023 will a year of epic volatility. Something is finally gonna "give" this year. And I don't think it will be a "soft landing" courtesy of the schmucks that had monetary policy wrong for 12 years.

Who says the Fastlane forum doesn’t know anything about finance and the economy? Not even a week later something interesting happened and we were right.

Looking at the VIX futures, I’ve never seen those contracts move like that this whole week. WOW. Something very important and interesting is gonna happen in July and August. Can you tell, I think I know what it is. Although it might be a 30 day overlap because VIX futures contracts are priced off SPX options that expire 30 days later.

 

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[socaldude]

Sell in May and go away?

Interestingly if you look at the bond market it thinks the Fed will lower rates in the near months.

Equities have not really priced in a recession and they think inflation has “peaked”. I actually think inflation has not “peaked” and that there are some surprise CPI’s in the cards despite any poll from leading academia economists LOL.

This market has been very resilient. Of course in bear markets you have these ridiculous overbought time periods that wipe out shorts.

Just my observation, I’m not seeing a recession. You go to the mall and it’s packed. We have yet to see that “spike” in the unemployment rate($UNRATE). I think the Fed will eventually abandon its fight against inflation and “save” the economy.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Sell in May and go away?

Interestingly if you look at the bond market it thinks the Fed will lower rates in the near months.

Equities have not really priced in a recession and they think inflation has “peaked”. I actually think inflation has not “peaked” and that there are some surprise CPI’s in the cards despite any poll from leading academia economists LOL.

This market has been very resilient. Of course in bear markets you have these ridiculous overbought time periods that wipe out shorts.

Just my observation, I’m not seeing a recession. You go to the mall and it’s packed. We have yet to see that “spike” in the unemployment rate($UNRATE). I think the Fed will eventually abandon its fight against inflation and “save” the economy.

I went into this year convinced that, if the FED reverses the course of aggressive tightening significantly, it will mean that they know it is game over for China (due to the high interest rates). Now I am not so sure. It might mean that the USA actually has to abandon the economic top spot and focus on becoming (one of) the best of the rest.

Too early to say, though. There might be a geopolitical plot twist, which has yet to be revealed.

So far they seem to both step on the brakes while also pressing the pedal to the metal. Something's got to give. Hard to think in terms of inflation or not. A credit crunch would be deflational and there are signs of that happening (is reverse repos being more attractive than bonds an example?). There is also the liquidity for banks ... but the mechanisms seem to be designed so that the money will never reach the real economy.

There are also many investment vehicles for buying up commercial real estate in bulk once it has bottomed. Seems to me like "the elite wants a fire sale and does not care about geopolitics very much". But I am not sure of much these days.

 

[socaldude]

Went ahead and bought $8k worth of QQQ Puts as I think tech is leading the way with horrible breadth. Although what did catch my attention is the increase in realized volatility. Of course just because something is overbought doesn’t mean it’s gonna go down soon but I do think we will see some big swings here after FOMC.

Bring it on.

 

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[YanC]

View attachment 48581

Went ahead and bought $8k worth of QQQ Puts as I think tech is leading the way with horrible breadth. Although what did catch my attention is the increase in realized volatility. Of course just because something is overbought doesn’t mean it’s gonna go down soon but I do think we will see some big swings here after FOMC.

Bring it on.

Sweet timing man, already up ~2k on the position. I'm not as ballsy but I'm glad I closed all my short premium positions and bought reinsurance units last week. Bring on the volatility !

 

[Andreas Thiel]

My prediction for this year was that people will expect the FED to lower rates because they will be forced to, but that it won't happen, because it is a geopolitical play and they will find excuses to keep the rates high (and maybe even raise them further).

I just read an article about how they present data that warrants higher rates (like crazy positive employment data) and then they quietly use revisions to correct the numbers downwards "when nobody is looking".

One extreme example that has been tweeted about seems to be hourly compensation rates that were revised from +4.9% to -0.7%.
Regional federal reserve banks seem to be pointing out these "anomalies" as well. Then again, declining rates don't seem to be a requirement for melt up rallies, so no idea what to do with this observation.

 

[WJK]

My prediction for this year was that people will expect the FED to lower rates because they will be forced to, but that it won't happen, because it is a geopolitical play and they will find excuses to keep the rates high (and maybe even raise them further).

I just read an article about how they present data that warrants higher rates (like crazy positive employment data) and then they quietly use revisions to correct the numbers downwards "when nobody is looking".

One extreme example that has been tweeted about seems to be hourly compensation rates that were revised from +4.9% to -0.7%.
Regional federal reserve banks seem to be pointing out these "anomalies" as well. Then again, declining rates don't seem to be a requirement for melt up rallies, so no idea what to do with this observation.

I'm not sure which way it's gonna go in the near future. I have a lot of food in my pantry and freezers. I'm ready for anything.

I just listened to a book on deinflation, linking that idea to AI. I think that as manufacturing comes back to US, it's gonna be very automated with smart robots. It will need a lot fewer humans to make products. 3D printers could also play a role in all of this. Production facilities could be localized and completely based on special orders that are drop shipped to their customers.

The business model for huge corporations and their funding may be obsolete. Now put that in your pipe and smoke it. What happens to the stock market, pensions & retirement funds, the banking industry, retail, transportation firms, and all kinds of associated businesses?

Also, the biggest social trend I see in the consumer market is minimalism. Ostentatious consumption is so yesterday. And that could have drastic effects on our GNP.

I'm not worried about interest rates. The Feds don't know what they are doing and they tying the rates to the unemployment rates -- which is crazy stupid and very outdated "woke".

 

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[YanC]

VIX below 14, a level not reached since early February 2020... Everything seems to be perfect in the beautiful world of markets !

 

[socaldude]

Everything seems to be perfect in the beautiful world of markets !

I forgot who said “In the stock market things are never as good as they seem and things are never as bad as they seem”.

One of the things I was looking forward to when this bear market started was some return to normalcy.

A lot of this market action is reminiscent of the previous bull market.

The folks at the Fed do not want to stop doing QE. When the SVB Bank collapsed, I knew these people would just go in and bail out and restructure. It’s not that hard.

They refuse to let economic forces play out and the market reflect true risk. They refuse to let any entity fail. This is why we are getting these weird jobs numbers that make no sense.

 

[WJK]

I forgot who said “In the stock market things are never as good as they seem and things are never as bad as they seem”.

One of the things I was looking forward to when this bear market started was some return to normalcy.

A lot of this market action is reminiscent of the previous bull market.

The folks at the Fed do not want to stop doing QE. When the SVB Bank collapsed, I knew these people would just go in and bail out and restructure. It’s not that hard.

They refuse to let economic forces play out and the market reflect true risk. They refuse to let any entity fail. This is why we are getting these weird jobs numbers that make no sense.

The Fed's actions don't make any sense. Why would they raise rates based on the unemployment rates and job numbers? Especially since we all know that they cook the books to formulate those numbers. They can't let the banks, like SVB Bank, fail because that bank had a bunch of the tech guys' money in it -- the Liberal's piggy bank for donor's dollars.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Hope ya all have sold and taken some money off the table in this insane rally.

The return of easy money?

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Hope ya all have sold and taken some money off the table in this insane rally.

The return of easy money?

How much has been printed recently? Do we have a chart?

 

[YanC]

Hope ya all have sold and taken some money off the table in this insane rally.

The return of easy money?

Took advantage on the opportunity to buy some rather cheap units. I've been expecting a move down for a little while now, so I guess it's gonna keep going up lol.

Crypto exploding as well on the XRP news.

 

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[socaldude]

The return of easy money?

My gut was right.

The Fed is still doing shadow QE behind the scenes.

They’re bailing out entities and not letting natural economic forces take their toll.

These rallies alway seem to happen when the government wants to pass a spending package.

Although market tops are not upside down “V’s” but more rounded.

The VIX is higher here than when /ES was lower. That’s noteworthy.

 

[socaldude]

I remember back when C0vid happened it was brought to my attention job openings at the CDC for jobs like “Viral Disease Specialist” were already being offered in Nov 2019 before the 2020 pandemic. It’s anybody’s guess if that’s a coincidence. LOL

Anyways, I did see some job openings on Indeed for positions like “Recession Relief Program Processor”. LOL OK.

Will “something” happen this year? Will they pull the plug on something?

I don’t see a recession although I am hearing about a lot of people being laid off even on this forum.

Should we be cautious about this bullish market?

 

[WJK]

I remember back when C0vid happened it was brought to my attention job openings at the CDC for jobs like “Viral Disease Specialist” were already being offered in Nov 2019 before the 2020 pandemic. It’s anybody’s guess if that’s a coincidence. LOL

Anyways, I did see some job openings on Indeed for positions like “Recession Relief Program Processor”. LOL OK.

Will “something” happen this year? Will they pull the plug on something?

I don’t see a recession although I am hearing about a lot of people being laid off even on this forum.

Should we be cautious about this bullish market?

The retail sales number are up. But, so is the use of credit. I don't what is going to happen.

The RE office markets in big cities are collapsing and that is going to sink a bunch of regional and mid-sized banks. That also means that's a drop in those cities' income streams for public services. I have seen up to a 40% estimated drop in tax revenues for New York City. There are a lot of moving parts to these issues. I have been waiting for this shoe to drop since the beginning of Covid.

The last time this happened was in the 1990s; it took out the whole Savings and Loans and Thrift network. In Los Angeles, we had "see-through" buildings -- vacant highrise office buildings. And the warehouse buildings were also hit really hard. I could write a whole article on the how and why of that crash. Our mantra was, "Stay alive until 95." 1995 came and went with no relief in sight. The downturn lasted just about the whole decade.

But, think about this... it was the stock market and Wall Street that picked up the slack and started funding RE securities through TDs and bonds. And they were happy to pick up where the Savings & Loans and Thrifts met their demise. They are on the hook this time...

 

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[jdm667]

The retail sales number are up. But, so is the use of credit. I don't what is going to happen.

The RE office markets in big cities are collapsing and that is going to sink a bunch of regional and mid-sized banks. That also means that's a drop in those cities' income streams for public services. I have seen up to a 40% estimated drop in tax revenues for New York City. There are a lot of moving parts to these issues. I have been waiting for this shoe to drop since the beginning of Covid.

The last time this happened was in the 1990s; it took out the whole Savings and Loans and Thrift network. In Los Angeles, we had "see-through" buildings -- vacant highrise office buildings. And the warehouse buildings were also hit really hard. I could write a whole article on the how and why of that crash. Our mantra was, "Stay alive until 95." 1995 came and went with no relief in sight. The downturn lasted just about the whole decade.

But, think about this... it was the stock market and Wall Street that picked up the slack and started funding RE securities through TDs and bonds. And they were happy to pick up where the Savings & Loans and Thrifts met their demise. They are on the hook this time...

Do you think the office building crunch is worse now than it was in the 90's?

A 40% drop in revenue for NYC means lots of municipal layoffs, then people not paying their rent/mortgages, eventually causing problems in the residential market as well. Like dominoes...

 

[WJK]

Do you think the office building crunch is worse now than it was in the 90's?

A 40% drop in revenue for NYC means lots of municipal layoffs, then people not paying their rent/mortgages, eventually causing problems in the residential market as well. Like dominoes...

I agree. It's gonna get bad. I'm not sure how to compare if the 1990s were worse. I don't know how deep the stake is planted in the heart of our economy.

I can tell you that in the early1990s, the Japanese stock market failed and they still haven't fully recovered. They were heavily invested in the LA commercial market and the investors dumped their RE to shore up their margin calls for their corporate stock positions. It was an intersection of the US turning against Japanese products and the rise of the personal computer.

The PC along with new carriers such as FedEx and UPS facilitated the on-time inventory model that smashed the warehouse space market. We went from 60 days of on-hand inventory to a mire 3 to 7 days of on-hand inventory. We had up to an 80% vacancy rate in our warehouse space.

What happened in the office market? My ex worked for a major oil company and had his office in their downtown towers. (I was his trophy wife.) I saw it in real-time from what that oil company did with their 48-story, downtown office buildings (and staffing). The employees went from private offices with secretaries and adm assistants to each being given a PC and a voicemail account. They had to make an appointment to come into the office for office time. Their former staff was fired (oops... laid off) and only rehired as temporary help for special assignments and projects. The people left standing were on their own to produce their work mostly remotely with a few command attendance meetings.

That oil company went from occupying 48 floors in the building they sold to a Japanese investment firm just before the crash. They built a new building in a much less desirable part of town where they occupied 3 floors out of the whole new highrise building. And that trend was repeated building after building. We called them "see-through" buildings because many were almost or totally vacant. Companies didn't need the space and staffing that they once needed.

And I saw it from a RE point of view. I was actually doing commercial appraising at that time. I was hired by RTC on some teams that took over Savings & Loans, and Thrifts. I also did a lot of internal bank work during those years where we appraised the underlying properties that were the collateral in their major asset portfolios. Some of those banks didn't make it.

And I saw it on a personal basis. I had been renting a corner office in a building down the street from my townhouse. I had 4 secretaries to produce my appraisal reports. By the time I retired, it was me, my computer, and my digital camera. My sons were grown and gone. So, I moved into their bedroom and ran my practice from my home and my car.

And here we are again. This time it's Covid. At the beginning of Covid, I met a man vacationing here in Alaska at a resort where we were visiting. He was a union plumber who was laid off. He had spent the last 30 years of his life taking care of the HVAC system in a major office building in New York City. He told me that for the first time in his working life the building was vacant and he was laid off. I immediately knew what that meant for that market. Been there. Done that.

And this will also kill the residential market in those areas as well.

 

[23Infinity]

Hope ya all have sold and taken some money off the table in this insane rally.

The return of easy money?

My dilemma right now. I'm still slightly down on a few certain tech investments that I made (stupidly) during the 2021 highs (but no where near as down as in Q4 2022). Thankfully I did balance that out with some gold ETRs and agricultural land ETFs which are up atm.

Wondering if I should just take the slight loss, exit the market and stick my cash into 5%+ short term treasuries risk free - until Powell decides if he's gonna lower rates/print money OR hike rates. Seeing a lot of predictions for a recession by Q4 or Q1 2024. E-com people in my network have been seeing slower sales , i.e. consumer spending so far this year.

The other thing I'm wondering about is the labour disruptions we are seeing for higher wages (e.g. UPS). So Wages will go up -> increase in cost of goods and services -> inflation continues to go up around Fall/Winter -> Powell has to hike rates again?

 

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[socaldude]

Powell decides if he's gonna lower rates/print money OR hike rates.

Two more rate hikes are coming.

BUT if you look at the yield curve, the market believes the Fed will lower rates before reaching their target rate of inflation. So the market is pricing in one more rate hike and that's it.

Seeing a lot of predictions for a recession by Q4 or Q1 2024.

We actually might not even have a "recession". It's up to the Fed to define a recession or how to interpret the data. LOL

Thankfully I did balance that out with some gold ETRs and agricultural land ETFs which are up atm.

For sure! Crude oil and Gold is saying inflation is here to stay!

I'm still slightly down on a few certain tech investments that I made (stupidly) during the 2021 highs (but no where near as down as in Q4 2022)

Well, Tech is very cash rich. In a downturn stocks will get hammered but I do think tech will do well in a recession. But this is definitely a bizarre economic environment. People doing well and speeding in their brand new Teslas. Rite Aid is hiring! But other jobs have big lay offs. A bullish stock market. What "looked" like a financial crisis a few months ago but turned out to be a dud.

What is Tech going to do? I mean, I have no idea what /ZN (10 year note) "should be at". I mean we can assume a 7% drawdown in /NQ for a 100 basis point rise in the 10 year yield.

Fed meeting on Wed though. I can't stand Wall Street. LOL

 

[jdm667]

I agree. It's gonna get bad. I'm not sure how to compare if the 1990s were worse. I don't know how deep the stake is planted in the heart of our economy.

I can tell you that in the early1990s, the Japanese stock market failed and they still haven't fully recovered. They were heavily invested in the LA commercial market and the investors dumped their RE to shore up their margin calls for their corporate stock positions. It was an intersection of the US turning against Japanese products and the rise of the personal computer.

The PC along with new carriers such as FedEx and UPS facilitated the on-time inventory model that smashed the warehouse space market. We went from 60 days of on-hand inventory to a mire 3 to 7 days of on-hand inventory. We had up to an 80% vacancy rate in our warehouse space.

What happened in the office market? My ex worked for a major oil company and had his office in their downtown towers. (I was his trophy wife.) I saw it in real-time from what that oil company did with their 48-story, downtown office buildings (and staffing). The employees went from private offices with secretaries and adm assistants to each being given a PC and a voicemail account. They had to make an appointment to come into the office for office time. Their former staff was fired (oops... laid off) and only rehired as temporary help for special assignments and projects. The people left standing were on their own to produce their work mostly remotely with a few command attendance meetings.

That oil company went from occupying 48 floors in the building they sold to a Japanese investment firm just before the crash. They built a new building in a much less desirable part of town where they occupied 3 floors out of the whole new highrise building. And that trend was repeated building after building. We called them "see-through" buildings because many were almost or totally vacant. Companies didn't need the space and staffing that they once needed.

And I saw it from a RE point of view. I was actually doing commercial appraising at that time. I was hired by RTC on some teams that took over Savings & Loans, and Thrifts. I also did a lot of internal bank work during those years where we appraised the underlying properties that were the collateral in their major asset portfolios. Some of those banks didn't make it.

And I saw it on a personal basis. I had been renting a corner office in a building down the street from my townhouse. I had 4 secretaries to produce my appraisal reports. By the time I retired, it was me, my computer, and my digital camera. My sons were grown and gone. So, I moved into their bedroom and ran my practice from my home and my car.

And here we are again. This time it's Covid. At the beginning of Covid, I met a man vacationing here in Alaska at a resort where we were visiting. He was a union plumber who was laid off. He had spent the last 30 years of his life taking care of the HVAC system in a major office building in New York City. He told me that for the first time in his working life the building was vacant and he was laid off. I immediately knew what that meant for that market. Been there. Done that.

And this will also kill the residential market in those areas as well.

So on-time inventory destroyed demand for warehouse space in the 90's - just like covid and remote work destroyed demand for office space recently.

It sounds like AI might have the same effect now as PC's had in the 90's: lots of jobs gone. If AI destroys as many jobs as predicted, that will further reduce demand for office space and hurt the residential market at the same time (layoffs mean people can't pay rent/mortgage).

I can see those laid off people selling off stocks in their retirement accounts to get by - possibly also tanking the stock market if enough of them do it all at once. Dominoes...

 

[WJK]

So on-time inventory destroyed demand for warehouse space in the 90's - just like covid and remote work destroyed demand for office space recently.

It sounds like AI might have the same effect now as PC's had in the 90's: lots of jobs gone. If AI destroys as many jobs as predicted, that will further reduce demand for office space and hurt the residential market at the same time (layoffs mean people can't pay rent/mortgage).

I can see those laid off people selling off stocks in their retirement accounts to get by - possibly also tanking the stock market if enough of them do it all at once. Dominoes...

It gets more profound than that in the cities for the housing markets. If people don't work in those office buildings, they don't need to live close by. Traditionally extra office and warehouse space has become housing. This time there this no longer looks like a backstop option. I read an article where the writer was saying that only the trophy and some of the class-A office buildings in NY will survive. The rest will be torn down. Uh?

Commercial RE used to be golden and so were the guys who played in that arena. Now the entire segment is questionable.

See, it's not just the housing near the office buildings that will be affected. It's the retail space and the spaces for support businesses. It's a whole commercial support economy that is at risk as well.

Retail space has been questionable for a long time with the advent of online shopping and changes in social trends. The biggest company that owned regional malls has gone broke. Now what do we do with those properties and all of those acres of parking lots? They used to be one of the main sources of sales tax revenues in many communities. We have a very high vacancy rate nationally for retail and office spaces of all sizes. This is the reality in cities and small towns. Do we need to rethink our community zoning maps and allocation of resources? How are we going to handle these changes?

You mentioned 401Ks and such. It goes much deeper than that. A bunch of the paper (mortgages) on these distressed properties were bundled by the stock market in the form of bonds and securities. The risk is not confined to the banking industry anymore. (Remember 2008 and that whole mess with the subprime housing market? Here we go again on a much bigger scale.) These securities are being sold and traded worldwide. What happens when the buildings lose their value and those securities are backed by a bunch of hot air? As Buffet says, when the tide goes out, we'll see who has been swimming without their bathing suit.

 

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[jdm667]

It gets more profound than that in the cities for the housing markets. If people don't work in those office buildings, they don't need to live close by. Traditionally extra office and warehouse space has become housing. This time there this no longer looks like a backstop option. I read an article where the writer was saying that only the trophy and some of the class-A office buildings in NY will survive. The rest will be torn down. Uh?

Commercial RE used to be golden and so were the guys who played in that arena. Now the entire segment is questionable.

See, it's not just the housing near the office buildings that will be affected. It's the retail space and the spaces for support businesses. It's a whole commercial support economy that is at risk as well.

Retail space has been questionable for a long time with the advent of online shopping and changes in social trends. The biggest company that owned regional malls has gone broke. Now what do we do with those properties and all of those acres of parking lots? They used to be one of the main sources of sales tax revenues in many communities. We have a very high vacancy rate nationally for retail and office spaces of all sizes. This is the reality in cities and small towns. Do we need to rethink our community zoning maps and allocation of resources? How are we going to handle these changes?

You mentioned 401Ks and such. It goes much deeper than that. A bunch of the paper (mortgages) on these distressed properties were bundled by the stock market in the form of bonds and securities. The risk is not confined to the banking industry anymore. (Remember 2008 and that whole mess with the subprime housing market? Here we go again on a much bigger scale.) These securities are being sold and traded worldwide. What happens when the buildings lose their value and those securities are backed by a bunch of hot air? As Buffet says, when the tide goes out, we'll see who has been swimming without their bathing suit.

I think this is the true reason that so many bosses are insisting on return to work. Deep down, they know there will be systemic problems otherwise. Like you said: commercial RE, residential RE, supporting retail spaces, restaurants - they're all intertwined.

A lot of people think "real estate always goes up" (or doesn't go down too much). But just look at Detroit - any city can have a spectacular rise and subsequent fall. If you said "Detroit will be a dump someday" in the 1950's, people would think you were crazy. Times change!

 

[WJK]

I think this is the true reason that so many bosses are insisting on return to work. Deep down, they know there will be systemic problems otherwise. Like you said: commercial RE, residential RE, supporting retail spaces, restaurants - they're all intertwined.

A lot of people think "real estate always goes up" (or doesn't go down too much). But just look at Detroit - any city can have a spectacular rise and subsequent fall. If you said "Detroit will be a dump someday" in the 1950's, people would think you were crazy. Times change!

You're right. The value of RE depends on supply and demand. The problems and the rules of the game haven't changed since humans organized into groups who live together.

So what now? I think that the problems that you have conflated are mostly distinctive.

I don't think that the "bosses" are getting their staff back to work because of the RE vacancy problems. Most of those bosses don't own the buildings and they sure aren't the lenders/investors at risk. I suspect that many are trying to reshuffle their businesses after the Covid shock. Before they had floors and floors neatly packed with controllable and compliant workers. Life was very predictable and scripted. Now they have a sea of empty dark offices, while they have a packed schedule of virtual meetings with people they haven't seen in person for a long, long time. I am sure some of their internal pressures are laced with nostalgia for a feeling of control and a return to a more familiar "normal".

Now, on to the RE. We have an 8 to 10-year problem It's endemic. Every 8 to 10 years we have a repopulation of superstars in real estate and the stock/investment markets. What these superstars do really work -- within that stage in the business and credit cycles. They are golden and they have a system that keeps them on top and making piles of money for themselves and their bosses/companies. They can do no wrong. Then the cycle turns and they don't recognize the need to change. Their tried and true system is all that they know so they double down -- while assuming that the losses they are experiencing are a fluke -- an anomaly. It's all going to turn around any day. It always ends with mountains of losses. And they are then ushered out the front door in disgrace by company security. All for the cycle of the revolving door to start again with the next baby superstar...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Average American:
My stock portfolio is up $200.
My credit card debt is up $20,000.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689066080507961344

View: https://twitter.com/1MartinMatthews/status/1689066080507961344?s=20

 

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[ZackerySprague]

$1 Trillion, we will never see disappear, but always go up. Oof... can you imagine having that amount of debt... Even a million in debt seems scary to me to even think about.

 

[Kevin88660]

I am building my trading/speculating positions for the coming BRICS conference, using derivatives of precious metals and VIX.

It somewhat got interrupted by the debt downgrade, that VIX went up abit. Hopefully it will decay down fast enough before 22 Aug when the conference starts.

The timing of the downgrade is strangely coincidental. Everyone knows the public debt situation in U.S. But why now? Probably big boys (rating agencies) foresee what is coming. You can’t save the country but you can save your own reputation.