Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[Kevin88660]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/charlie-munger-who-was-warren-buffetts-right-hand-man-dies-99

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

So I left my house at noon to get my truck's oil change and the market was up a few points, came home and the SPY was down 6 points, nearly 1.5%. I looked for a catalyst, some headline, some FED chatter, and nothing seemed to compel the action.

Simple profit taking on the recent upswing?

 

[socaldude]

Simple profit taking on the recent upswing?

Probably, or for tax purposes.

And these moves always happen around the same time of day, 1:00-1:30pm ET. Probably institutions.

The VIX has had bigger percentage up moves(20%) on a -2 handle move on the SPY. VIX went up 9.1% on a -1.45% move. That’s about typical 6 to 1 correlation.

I would be concerned if VIX continued to rise into Friday.

 

[Kevin88660]

Probably, or for tax purposes.

And these moves always happen around the same time of day, 1:00-1:30pm ET. Probably institutions.

The VIX has had bigger percentage up moves(20%) on a -2 handle move on the SPY. VIX went up 9.1% on a -1.45% move. That’s about typical 6 to 1 correlation.

I would be concerned if VIX continued to rise into Friday.

Fund managers booking year end profit for bonus next year.

 

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[rizbit]

looking long term and using weekly timeframe charts it looks bullish, on a smaller timeframe like 4h you have to factor in big whales and market manipulation all aimed at quick profits.... thats why its so risky esp for amateurs to do leverages trading.

 

[socaldude]

looking long term and using weekly timeframe charts it looks bullish,

Yale Hirsch, the guy behind the stock traders almanac said “if Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to broad and wall.”

There may not be a January trifecta as he called it. There was no Santa Claus rally. The first 5 days as a warning system. And the January barometer.

 

[Kevin88660]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady — 1/31/2024

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers remarks following the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday...

www.youtube.com

No rate cut as expected. To summarise they want to see more months of data showing inflation being tamed before normalizing interest rate.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

No rate cut as expected.

The labor market is still hot as well, which is forcing rates higher and rate-sensitive stocks lower.

 

[Kak]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady — 1/31/2024

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers remarks following the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday...

www.youtube.com

No rate cut as expected. To summarise they want to see more months of data showing inflation being tamed before normalizing interest rate.

He's FOS. They can't sustain high interest rates and keep the ponzi scheme going. He's just taking the ubiquitous freebie chance to cool things off by just using his largemouth bass flap.

See this post for proof of concept: HOT! - CHAT - Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

 

[socaldude]

He's FOS. They can't sustain high interest rates and keep the ponzi scheme going.

There is a lot of political pressure as well. But in the last years, Powell has been in line with the expectations and has not thrown out unexpected surprises.

For March, the odds are at 50/50 for cut or no cut. And the market is not pricing that in. March is gonna be volatile for the markets.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

For March, the odds are at 50/50 for cut or no cut.

I'd put it at 99 NO CUT, 1 CUT.

 

[socaldude]

I'd put it at 99 NO CUT, 1 CUT.

Yeah me too. I’m just referring to what CME Fedwatch tool says.

Edit: My bad it now says 80/20. The other day it was 50/50.

They’re gonna be closely watching jobs data. The unemployment rate can sky rocket out of no where.

 

[Kevin88660]

There is a lot of political pressure as well. But in the last years, Powell has been in line with the expectations and has not thrown out unexpected surprises.

For March, the odds are at 50/50 for cut or no cut. And the market is not pricing that in. March is gonna be volatile for the markets.

They quite clearly stated they favor not cutting and given the rationale. It is more wall street hyping it hoping for a rally.

Their official mandate is balancing the risk of inflation versus unemployment.

Labor market tight while cpi shows good improvement, but they need more confirmation on cpi being tamed.

It’s exactly when your doctor asks you to take the whole course of antibiotics when you have a throat infection, not stopping it on the first sign of relief.

So the only way the cut is going to happen fast is that when there is an expected event that cause the economy to tank quickly. We were supposed to be on rate hike in 18,19 and 20 until the pandemic happened and ended up in QE.

 

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[loop101]

DHH is still on his anti-cloud path.

His company has a product that sells you software once, and you host it yourself. It is called ONCE.

And he is daring people to run their own servers, instead of paying cloud providers.

If Linus is the Wozniak of the open-source world, DHH is the Steve jobs.

 

[Kevin88660]

Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics

companiesmarketcap.com

Besides the well-known big tech names at the top, hardware semiconductors companies and big pharma are trailing behind.

TSMC and ASML have quite monopolistic power and are hard to get replaced.

I am not sure how monopolistic can big pharma get. The drug patents do eventually expire. There is always patent theft in India. And there is competition between big pharma as well, you cannot stop another company comes out with another effective drug in the same category (diabetics or weight loss for instance).

 

[MJ DeMarco]

$NVDA kills earnings... up $100+

Jim Cramer becomes the blind squirrel finding a nut...

 

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[socaldude]

$NVDA kills earnings... up $100+

Impressive considering the implied move was $66 or like 10%. Historically I think the moves are like 7%. In other words if you would have bought the straddle even pre-earnings and held it into today then you would have made money.