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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

The Sandman

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What fundamentals? The stock market is an emotional rollercoaster rather than a logical investing platform. I'll stick with real estate.
I was about to agree until you got to the real estate part. Retiring boomers and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on housing for the next decade or two.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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GOOGLE, Apple, and Amazon are all down in the aftermarket due to earnings misses.

This nice little rally might be over.
 

WJK

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I was about to agree until you got to the real estate part. Retiring boomers and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on housing for the next decade or two.
B.S. This is my 37th year in the RE business. I have seen good times and bad times over the years. The longest downturn I have experienced lasted almost all of the 1990s. It was in the office and warehouse markets in Los Angeles, CA. This is my 5th business cycle during my adulthood (1972 to present). I bought my first house for $27,500. in 1976 (2 bedrooms, 1 bath, GI special, tract house). So the market can't be too depressed now with the average housing prices at over 10 to 15 times that amount. You could buy a huge house for $40,000 to $50,000. In 1980, interest rates for houses went from 9.5% to 22% in about a month right after Christmas. That was only about a 3 or 4 year correction. It also took a guy named Reagan to pull us out of it. And I can talk about the crash in 1990 in the housing market.
Shall I go on...
 

loop101

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What fundamentals? The stock market is an emotional rollercoaster rather than a logical investing platform. I'll stick with real estate.

He thinks people will move their money in to government bonds and earn 4% without the stock market risk.

 
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The Sandman

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B.S. This is my 37th year in the RE business. I have seen good times and bad times over the years. The longest downturn I have experienced lasted almost all of the 1990s. It was in the office and warehouse markets in Los Angeles, CA. This is my 5th business cycle during my adulthood (1972 to present). I bought my first house for $27,500. in 1976 (2 bedrooms, 1 bath, GI special, tract house). So the market can't be too depressed now with the average housing prices at over 10 to 15 times that amount. You could buy a huge house for $40,000 to $50,000. In 1980, interest rates for houses went from 9.5% to 22% in about a month right after Christmas. That was only about a 3 or 4 year correction. It also took a guy named Reagan to pull us out of it. And I can talk about the crash in 1990 in the housing market.
Shall I go on...

You think 37 years is enough to witness all the types of economic cycles?
This type of "the markets always go up in the long run" thinking is why a lot of people are in for a world of hurt.
 

socaldude

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You think 37 years is enough to witness all the types of economic cycles?
This type of "the markets always go up in the long run" thinking is why a lot of people are in for a world of

I personally own no real estate in the US so I’m not that knowledgeable about real estate. And I will definitely never own it here in CA because I hate it. But, owning land and a house that sits on top of it is always better than just logging into your Bank of America account and seeing some BS digital number. Not to mention they can see every transaction and how much I have.

It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where people run for the exit and at the same time buyers rushing in to scoop real estate at bargain prices.
 

socaldude

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Remember when the market crashed in March of 2020 and some investors were actually calling for the government to intervene and buy the market directly? I shake my head but the point is that there is a lot of power and incentive to continue the show.

For there to be a crash or a collapse across the board. I mean what has to happen? An EMP attack from outer space that wipes out the internet and cell phone towers? Wipes out the NYSE. Or wipes out the machines big pharma uses to make their pills. LOL
 
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loop101

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Remember when the market crashed in March of 2020 and some investors were actually calling for the government to intervene and buy the market directly? I shake my head but the point is that there is a lot of power and incentive to continue the show.

For there to be a crash or a collapse across the board. I mean what has to happen? An EMP attack from outer space that wipes out the internet and cell phone towers? Wipes out the NYSE. Or wipes out the machines big pharma uses to make their pills. LOL
I thought the government was already buying the market, isn't that what QE is/was ?
 

WJK

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You think 37 years is enough to witness all the types of economic cycles?
This type of "the markets always go up in the long run" thinking is why a lot of people are in for a world of hurt.
And how many years do you have in your business????? What were you doing 37 years ago? By the way, that's 1976 to the present. I've been playing monopoly with real money for many of those years. I've had some big wins and some spectacular failures.

I agree with your premise. No one person can see all types of anything. We don't live long enough. But I have a secret weapon past what I have personally experienced. I can read and study anything that is interesting.

RE doesn't always go up. I didn't say that. But... is it going to go back to a 2-bedroom house for $27,500 again?
(Student minimum wages in 1972 were $1.35 per hour. Adult minimum wages were $1.65 per hour. We were paying $.25 per gallon for gas. And as a female, I couldn't get a loan to buy a house, have a credit card in my name, or take out a bank loan. Only men needed to apply. Times have changed! YEAH!)

Yes, we could be in for some rough times. The business cycle is different from the credit cycle -- which runs for an average of 75 to 100 years. The last time the credit cycle hit bottom was the Great Depression, which started in 1929. I worry about a business cycle hitting at the same time as a credit cycle.

I have been preparing for this possibility during the last several years through debt reduction and consolidation. I had other landlords giving me lectures on leverage in real estate. They thought I didn't understand the concepts. Uh? No duh, man. Then they thought I was crazy NOT to take advantage of the run-up in RE prices. I kept countering by trying to explain economic cycles -- the crash in 1980 -- again in 1990 -- the Rodney King riots which negated fire insurance for buildings through the civil unrest loophole -- the fact that commercial loans (including apartment buildings) can have lender calls and legal recourse in a downturn... And the beat goes on, and the beat goes on...

So, what is your answer as to where to put your investment money?
 

socaldude

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I thought the government was already buying the market

No, the Fed does what it wants outside the control of the treasury and congress. But indirectly a lot of the money does ultimately end up in the stock market. Like in the form of stock buy backs.

isn't that what QE is/was ?

I'm not sure how it works and I don't think anybody does. They have people that sit at computers and buy and sell bonds. Or send money over to Blackrock to help them buy Bond ETFs. They try to set a target fed funds rate based on what banks around the country are saying about the economy. But it's all a digital Ponzi scheme where they send money to each other digitally. But understanding Bonds and interest rates is the key. The bond market doesn't lie. Investing and trading bonds is super hard.
 
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socaldude

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Screenshot 2023-03-04 at 2.17.53 PM.png

The spread between the 2 and the 10 year yield is still very inverted. Even more inverted than it was before the internet crash of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008. In other words, there is a bubble SOMEWHERE. Who knows where. It can be crypto, equities or something. There is gonna be an economic explosion/implosion somewhere in some sector or asset class.

I trust this indicator and I think it's one that many investors pay attention to. It's often misunderstood and overlooked.

I think 2023 will a year of epic volatility. Something is finally gonna "give" this year. And I don't think it will be a "soft landing" courtesy of the schmucks that had monetary policy wrong for 12 years.

There are days where the SP500 is down 1.05% and the VIX will actually be down say...2.15%. But I think it has to do more with the VIX already being elevated at say...20. More so than it being a "bullish indicator". It might be worth timing a VIX spike in 2023 as we will see a new economic and volatility regime.

;)
 

WJK

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View attachment 47429

The spread between the 2 and the 10 year yield is still very inverted. Even more inverted than it was before the internet crash of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008. In other words, there is a bubble SOMEWHERE. Who knows where. It can be crypto, equities or something. There is gonna be an economic explosion/implosion somewhere in some sector or asset class.

I trust this indicator and I think it's one that many investors pay attention to. It's often misunderstood and overlooked.

I think 2023 will a year of epic volatility. Something is finally gonna "give" this year. And I don't think it will be a "soft landing" courtesy of the schmucks that had monetary policy wrong for 12 years.

There are days where the SP500 is down 1.05% and the VIX will actually be down say...2.15%. But I think it has to do more with the VIX already being elevated at say...20. More so than it being a "bullish indicator". It might be worth timing a VIX spike in 2023 as we will see a new economic and volatility regime.

;)
We've had several bubbles going on different fronts.

We've had the real estate bubble in single-family housing which has spread all over the country by Covid. and people working from home. As prices decrease, how many are going to be underwater? Will they walk away this time leaving their dirty dishes on the kitchen table?

This is following the inner city commercial properties. It reminds me of 1990 when we had "see-through buildings" -- skyscraper office buildings in Los Angeles that were completely empty. No, we can't convert those buildings to condos because the city dwellers are not coming back to go to work. We have empty malls that no one knows what to do with. All these huge white elephants are located in cities that depended on the tax incomes from all of them to provide services. Shall I go on?

We have the stock market way above the normal income-to-value benchmarks. Major corporations are bending at the altar of being politically correct rather than making a profit for their shareholders. And then there's the bond market that is standing on the edge of the great abyss. See the prior paragraph to start to define the problems with the cash flows that support some of those high-rated bonds.

We have the crypto-market market which is money that someone made up out of thin air. There's no collateral for any of it. You no longer even need a printing press. A $100 tablet will do it.

And the numbers and indicators we're getting are lies. They are way too rosy. Unemployment doesn't include all the people who have dropped out of the labor force. The inflation numbers don't include food for your table and gas for your car. Debt figures don't include unfunded or underfunded pensions and other obligations.

Need I go on?????
 

socaldude

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And the numbers and indicators we're getting are lies. They are way too rosy. Unemployment doesn't include all the people who have dropped out of the labor force. The inflation numbers don't include food for your table and gas for your car. Debt figures don't include unfunded or underfunded pensions and other obligations.

Absolutely.

The sociopaths in charge of the establishment do not want people like me to know how the economy really works. "We will take care of it, you just do what you are told. Nothing to see here."

They lie about the economy and everything else. Shoot, they don't even want you to know how your own body or health works.
 
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WJK

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Absolutely.

The sociopaths in charge of the establishment do not want people like me to know how the economy really works. "We will take care of it, you just do what you are told. Nothing to see here."

They lie about the economy and everything else. Shoot, they don't even want you to know how your own body or health works.
You need to read or listen to the books by Ray Dalio about how money works. It's very enlightening.
 

socaldude

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You need to read or listen to the books by Ray Dalio about how money works. It's very enlightening.

I enjoy listening to Peter Schiff as well. A lot of things he says are refreshing and logical.

I think there is big opportunity in this space in the form of information, content and data. The mainstream media talking heads or media like MSNBC is completely unwatchable.

I think people will deliberately search for independent content creators. The whole “verified by fact checkers” on social media and some dumbass on the news saying “they are not experts” needs to be thrown in the trash.
 

WJK

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I enjoy listening to Peter Schiff as well. A lot of things he says are refreshing and logical.

I think there is big opportunity in this space in the form of information, content and data. The mainstream media talking heads or media like MSNBC is completely unwatchable.

I think people will deliberately search for independent content creators. The whole “verified by fact checkers” on social media and some dumbass on the news saying “they are not experts” needs to be thrown in the trash.
I feel like a kid in a candy shop with all the people publishing their own books and putting content on the net. The gatekeepers have been shoved aside. And I love Audible and podcasts so I can listen all day. I am all in for different points of view.

Yesterday I was checking my emails. I read an opinion piece saying that no one can predict wars. And at the same time, I was listening to "The Changing World Order" by Ray Dalio. He said that wars are totally predictable based on the economic stages of that particular society. He laid out the stages in this book and another one he wrote. Wars are not only predictable but have common elements that have happened again and again over history.
 
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WJK

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socaldude

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Yes, the single-family housing bubble is starting to pop!

Interestingly the only people I know who are “successful” slowlaners(never started a business) did it through:

1. A high paying job.
2. Investing in real estate.

I Notice how there’s NOBODY that did it through compound interest(LOL) or mutual funds. At least I've never met that person. Albeit it would take you 20 years.
 

WJK

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Interestingly the only people I know who are “successful” slowlaners(never started a business) did it through:

1. A high paying job.
2. Investing in real estate.

I Notice how there’s NOBODY that did it through compound interest(LOL) or mutual funds. At least I've never met that person. Albeit it would take you 20 years.
It's taken me a lot more than 20 years. I've been in the RE business for 47 years. I have seen up and downs in the business. I have learned about cycles in both business and credit. Yes, I've made good money with my expertise and I have lost during the downturns. Over those years I learned how and when to invest in RE.

I don't invest in mutual funds because I have no control over the stock market. The odds aren't in my favor. Also, money managers make 1% on the investments that they "manage". Compound THAT cash flow over a lifetime of investing! I've actually had money managers advise me to sell my RE and put that money under their management. Uh? I like managing my own investments and therefore, my future without paying them.

By the way, I read an article yesterday reporting that from 1/3 to 1/2 of the recent single-family home transactions (sales) nationally are all cash with no mortgages. That means that savvy investors are moving their money into "hard assets" away from the stock market and securities. I don't think there is enough gold, RE, or other hand assets to absorb all the loose cash laying around. They've printed too much.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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NOTE: The VIX has finally moved significantly on this down day after not budging for months, even amidst rising rates and wars.

Of note: Silicon Valley Bank has failed and was closed with FDIC taking receivership.

Resembles 2008 and it is how a contagion begins.
 

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NOTE: The VIX has finally moved significantly on this down day after not budging for months, even amidst rising rates and wars.

Of note: Silicon Valley Bank has failed and was closed with FDIC taking receivership.

Resembles 2008 and it is how a contagion begins.
And how about around 1990 when it ended that cycle? Over the 1990's decade, it was the death of the Savings & Loan Associations and the Thrifts. That downturn took down the whole savings and lending industry. That's when Wall Street and the secondary mortgage market took over financing the RE market... which led to a whole bunch of new lending products... which led to the 2008 downturn. These events are a trackable and mostly predictable cycle. The basic business cycle runs about 8 years. Then there's the credit cycle which runs about 50 to 75 years. 2008 was a credit cycle event. But, with the national debt and consumer debts, we don't know IF it finished playing out.

This is not really about one bank failing. It's the tip of the iceberg. They had a classic run on this bank by the Silicon Valley business crowd. It depleted their liquid assets. Banks, in general, don't have enough reserves to handle even small runs. And the problem is, this is only one bank -- which is one of many that are going to be in trouble very soon.

Investors are gathering their cash and then going into hard assets. It's going to get interesting!
 

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NOTE: The VIX has finally moved significantly on this down day after not budging for months, even amidst rising rates and wars.
Finally ! Was a good day to sell some premium after almost 3 months of muted volatility.
 
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And how about around 1990 when it ended that cycle? Over the 1990's decade, it was the death of the Savings & Loan Associations and the Thrifts. That downturn took down the whole savings and lending industry. That's when Wall Street and the secondary mortgage market took over financing the RE market... which led to a whole bunch of new lending products... which led to the 2008 downturn. These events are a trackable and mostly predictable cycle. The basic business cycle runs about 8 years. Then there's the credit cycle which runs about 50 to 75 years. 2008 was a credit cycle event. But, with the national debt and consumer debts, we don't know IF it finished playing out.

This is not really about one bank failing. It's the tip of the iceberg. They had a classic run on this bank by the Silicon Valley business crowd. It depleted their liquid assets. Banks, in general, don't have enough reserves to handle even small runs. And the problem is, this is only one bank -- which is one of many that are going to be in trouble very soon.

Investors are gathering their cash and then going into hard assets. It's going to get interesting!
I just read an article saying there is "little chance of contagion." Yeah, sure.

If there was a big chance of contagion, do you think they would tell us? At this point, they are just trying to prevent more bank runs and receiverships.
 

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I am not sure I get what is happening. The inverted yield curve has led customers to move money directly into short term bonds (or what are the "TARA" reasonable alternatives?) and the banks have to realize paper losses when customers withdraw money? Is there some kind of leverage going on? How can something like this lead to a game over so quickly?
 

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I am not sure I get what is happening. The inverted yield curve has led customers to move money directly into short term bonds (or what are the "TARA" reasonable alternatives?) and the banks have to realize paper losses when customers withdraw money? Is there some kind of leverage going on? How can something like this lead to a game over so quickly?
It always has. The economic markets turn in an instant. I always play contra to the markets in RE. I don't try to hit the top or the bottom. Close is good enough because I know how fast things can go the opposite way. I have seen a lot over all of these years...
 
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Your leverage question is rooted in short-term funding for long-term investments. The banks were counting on the interest rates staying down. So they floated loans for customers that go on for years based upon margins between the low-interest rates and their loan yields. Now they are upside down on a bunch of those loans. They never factored in the risk that inflation and Covid (and a European war) would smack them on the nose with higher interest rates and less liquidity in the money supply markets. They bet the farm on a rosy forecast without adequate reserves or planning for a bubble to burst or a quantitative money tightening to result in a downturn.

Fast forward to another factor... Investors are fleeing from paper assets to hard assets -- stock and bonds to RE, gold, fine art, machinery, etc. This is a classic investor reaction to this type of market. So, now these banks that are already upside down on their loan portfolios, are having a run on their liquid assets -- money on hand -- their reserves. And the banks are having to sell off their assets to meet both the runs they are experiencing and their reserve requirements from the banking regulators. It's a live-or-die moment for a bunch of them.
 

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can somebody explain to me in plain english whether the stock market will go up or down in the next months? I dont understand interest rates or yields or this or that, i do understand cycles, will the next cycle be going up or down? i want to know if my investments are safe. thanks
 

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can somebody explain to me in plain english whether the stock market will go up or down in the next months? I dont understand interest rates or yields or this or that, i do understand cycles, will the next cycle be going up or down? i want to know if my investments are safe. thanks
No. No one can tell you IF your investments are safe in the short term. Playing the stock market game has a lot of built-in risks, especially for short-term players. Will there be a rally or a dead-cat bounce? I don't know right now. I know that people are herd animals and that herds as a group turn on a dime. I'm not sure how much fear the leaders are smelling right now. And that's why I don't play the stock market.

You say you understand cycles. Only you can decide where we are right now in this business cycle. Factor in the debt cycle as well. Then there's the life cycle of empires that the USA is in, vs. China. All the political strife is one of the steps in that last cycle. There's a lot of fear in the air right now and that can really turn the markets.
 
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No. No one can tell you IF your investments are safe in the short term. Playing the stock market game has a lot of built-in risks, especially for short-term players. Will there be a rally or a dead-cat bounce? I don't know right now. I know that people are herd animals and that herds as a group turn on a dime. I'm not sure how much fear the leaders are smelling right now. And that's why I don't play the stock market.

You say you understand cycles. Only you can decide where we are right now in this business cycle. Factor in the debt cycle as well. Then there's the life cycle of empires that the USA is in, vs. China. All the political strife is one of the steps in that last cycle. There's a lot of fear in the air right now and that can really turn the markets.
I'll put it another way. I have currently about $30k to my name and a high risk tolerance. Should I put it all into crypto at this price? will bitcoin keep falling or will it go back up? You seem to know your stuff so I think I can trust your opinion thank you
 

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I can't believe banks thought it wise to commit to 10-year bonds getting like 1.6% interest. Unbelievable.
 

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