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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

Andreas Thiel

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Another narrative that deserves to be mentioned explicitly:

The inverted 10 year US treasury rates and equities (like NASDAQ) usually correlate when the main plays are inflation / deflation plays.

The recent divergence might mean that market participants focus more on recession indicators now, so we might see weaker reactions like, for example, bounces in the case of inflation related news like a weak jobs report. The recession fear might beat the hopes for a shift in the monetary policy in the near future.

divergence_recessionplays.jpg
 
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YanC

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SPX looking ugly. 3900 broke, 3700 is not far away, then... 3200 ? Surprised the VIX barely budged actually.
 

socaldude

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SPX looking ugly. 3900 broke, 3700 is not far away, then... 3200 ? Surprised the VIX barely budged actually.

You get clues as to what happens going forward based on the price action the day after the FOMC meeting. Always happens.

I thought today would be uglier than yesterday to be honest.

Looks like the bear market trend line did indeed hold.
 

fastlanedoll

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first time in a long time I rolled at a loss. you know what the worst thing is? I'm in a different time zone. if I could have kept myself awake til 5am.. the puts I sold would have expired out of the money.. FML.
 
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RicardoGrande

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Cramer claimed there could be a Christmas rally... so it's looking like the market will tank again next week.

After that, it looks like banks are using the fed discount window? It seems it was only ever used around the time of financial crises, this bodes for an interesting early Q1 along with consumer credit defaults.
FkXS23ZWQAAGotc.jpg
 

MJ DeMarco

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This what happens when people make investment decisions with zero insight into what is actually going on, or worse, based on anonymous Redditors...

NVTA (Invitae) is a 1.89 stock.

You can...

Buy 1000 shares for $1890 and control 1000 shares for a lifetime.

I saw someone bought 10 call options on NVTA with a 780 DTE (days to expire) for $1400 with a strike price of $3.50.

In other words, for a tiny % discount, they gave away $1.61 in upside and limited their time horizon. The stock price has to nearly increase 100% (double) to hit the 3.50 strike.

Why the F*ck are you buying call options when you can technically buy the stock cheaper? And with an unlimited time horizon and NO THETA?

The market maker must have laughed his a$$ off.
 

Bones81

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This what happens when people make investment decisions with zero insight into what is actually going on, or worse, based on anonymous Redditors...

NVTA (Invitae) is a 1.89 stock.

You can...

Buy 1000 shares for $1890 and control 1000 shares for a lifetime.

I saw someone bought 10 call options on NVTA with a 780 DTE (days to expire) for $1400 with a strike price of $3.50.

In other words, for a tiny % discount, they gave away $1.61 in upside and limited their time horizon. The stock price has to nearly increase 100% (double) to hit the 3.50 strike.

Why the F*ck are you buying call options when you can technically buy the stock cheaper? And with an unlimited time horizon and NO THETA?

The market maker must have laughed his a$$ off.
The bid/ask spread is ridiculous on that strike as well. That being said, it is a biotech stock, so if you're going to do a trade like this, this is where you'd do it.
 
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fastlanedoll

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This what happens when people make investment decisions with zero insight into what is actually going on, or worse, based on anonymous Redditors...

NVTA (Invitae) is a 1.89 stock.

You can...

Buy 1000 shares for $1890 and control 1000 shares for a lifetime.

I saw someone bought 10 call options on NVTA with a 780 DTE (days to expire) for $1400 with a strike price of $3.50.

In other words, for a tiny % discount, they gave away $1.61 in upside and limited their time horizon. The stock price has to nearly increase 100% (double) to hit the 3.50 strike.

Why the F*ck are you buying call options when you can technically buy the stock cheaper? And with an unlimited time horizon and NO THETA?

The market maker must have laughed his a$$ off.
it's possible they meant to sell & misclicked. happened to me :/
 

socaldude

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Buy 1000 shares for $1890 and control 1000 shares for a lifetime.

I saw someone bought 10 call options on NVTA with a 780 DTE (days to expire) for $1400 with a strike price of $3.50.

Poor guy doesn’t know his synthetics. Even the market maker has to buy the stock to sell you the calls.

If you really have to play the options. What are you really communicating if you buy the 780 DTE? That you basically don’t know jack or when a move is coming. Most investors don’t buy that much time premium and just put it in their pocket. If I “knew” a big move was coming I would just buy something near expiration(assuming I have to use options). The expiration element is probably the hardest aspect of all of this. Price and time.

But yeah, often it’s just better to buy the underlying because there’s too much time premium being driven by all this options activity.

I’ve done dumber things than that so I can only just feel bad for whoever that is.
 

MJ DeMarco

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socaldude

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Seasonally, this time of year I don't think we will see a "santa claus" rally.

Yale Hirsch passed away last month at age 98. Rest in peace. :(
 

socaldude

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Looks like a wedge pattern forming on that /ES chart with 3830 acting as a magnet(lots of options expiring). We are gonna see a big move here in the next few days. I would say down 2-3%.
 
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Andreas Thiel

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Results for the predictions thread are in, right? 10 people nailed it, 24 "in the neighborhood" (89 total). What do you guys think about how 2022 went?

Will there be a similar thread for 2023?

 

loop101

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MJ DeMarco

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"They turned $48k into $1 million in one hour."

View: https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1620029433536020481



Stuff like this is infuriating because INSIDERS trading is clearly against the law.

So in other words, if this is a normie, it will be investigated.

If it's a politician or someone in the ruling class, it will be ignored.
 

socaldude

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If it's a politician or someone in the ruling class, it will be ignored.

Absolutely.

These kinds of INSIDERS trades are way more common than many think.

Heck, remember when they INSIDERS traded those geopolitical announcements with the trade war with China. Billions in E-Mini futures contracts. With precision timing.

With this trade I'm sure there were some clues as to something was up. If you weed out the noise from market makers and other trades; probably big call options volume together with the stock going up.

These days were orders go to a digital ether, how do you even catch someone. I never hear about anybody getting charged with INSIDERS trading. Because these elites get away with it.
 

Dangerous Donna

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Absolutely.

These kinds of INSIDERS trades are way more common than many think.

Heck, remember when they INSIDERS traded those geopolitical announcements with the trade war with China. Billions in E-Mini futures contracts. With precision timing.

With this trade I'm sure there were some clues as to something was up. If you weed out the noise from market makers and other trades; probably big call options volume together with the stock going up.

These days were orders go to a digital ether, how do you even catch someone. I never hear about anybody getting charged with INSIDERS trading. Because these elites get away with it.
Bunch of cheats and liars
 
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loop101

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Hmm... It will be interesting to see how this goes.

1675211878395.png

Link.
 

socaldude

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Hmm... It will be interesting to see how this goes.

1675211878395.png


Link.

Well, February is seasonally a high volatility month. So I would be cautious and prepared.

When you see complacency build up and everyone is looking at the same technical analysis. That’s when things quickly make a U-turn.
 

RicardoGrande

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loop101

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Well, February is seasonally a high volatility month. So I would be cautious and prepared.

When you see complacency build up and everyone is looking at the same technical analysis. That’s when things quickly make a U-turn.

I must be wired in to all the doom-porn, because I am still expecting everything to collapse. It seems like America is spending way too much money outside the country, while simultaneously destroying itself from within. I don't get it, other than to assume I am too biased to understand. Other people I know think everything is going "back to normal" and the markets will start going back up "forever".
 

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Conversely, hasn't he also been trying to call a crash since 2018, and went 90% in on cash and missed out on the meltup through 2021 and 2022?
The Government started QE in 2008 to avoid a market crash, IMHO that crash he only been delayed. It should have crashed every year since 2008, including 2018. Then they added pandemic "stimulus" money since 2020. If the QE and Stimulus are ending now, and QT is starting, what is going to hold up the stock market? I don't think anyone missed the "melt up" unless they are certain they could have timed it perfectly, which only policy makers can do.
 

socaldude

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I must be wired in to all the doom-porn, because I am still expecting everything to collapse.

Totally understandable. I’m the same way. None of this is without merit.

My guess is the next economic or financial crisis will have its origin in some area in the economy where it was least expected. Then a casual cascade ripple effect affecting credit and equity markets. You won’t have a forewarning or clue from CNBC.

But in the meantime the economy and government is very powerful and will continue business as usual. Prices will continue to inflate and money will continue to be created out of nothing. But it’s good to be prepared and cautious.

America right now is experiencing a social and economic shift like never before seen. Stay in control and hang on tight. Luckily the people that run the show have no “say” or “authority” or “monopoly” on utility. Nature and the universe are ones that do. That’s outside their board game of monopoly. They control a lot of it. But there is still opportunities to control our own destiny.
 
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socaldude

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My opinion is that the “big tell” going forward is the price action tomorrow and Friday. I feel like it’s too much noise on the day of the FOMC meeting.

The schmucks at the Fed ain’t doing a good job at all. Although it’s interesting to see retail, discretionary and semiconductors lead the way.

You know what happens when the majority becomes complacent. The fundamentals just don’t back this market.
 

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My opinion is that the “big tell” going forward is the price action tomorrow and Friday. I feel like it’s too much noise on the day of the FOMC meeting.

The schmucks at the Fed ain’t doing a good job at all. Although it’s interesting to see retail, discretionary and semiconductors lead the way.

You know what happens when the majority becomes complacent. The fundamentals just don’t back this market.

First Burry, and and now Taleb

1675352308130.png
 
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