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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

MJ DeMarco

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Between now and the election I’m not so sure what the VIX is going to do. Will it go to 40 if SPX makes a new low? It can, probably. We haven’t had these VIX spikes that look like a heart rate monitor rather it’s been a slow grind with premium sellers coming in and selling puts.

Some people say the VIX divergences is because of call buying, which I don’t think is correct.
 

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Hey! I was wondering if there is someone here daytrading SP500 /ES futures?

Been trading for 5+years, technical analysis price action on a M5 chart

Looking for buddies

Regards,

Marcos
 

ZF Lee

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So much for investing in China markets...

The recent Congress meeting had Xi confirming his third term and filling the top Politburo seats with almost all his cliche, namely folks who used to work with him during his time in Fujian.

Yet the China stocks...especially their techs were dropping double digits.

While the third term was already set (Congress itself was just a formality)-- somehow folks didn't like Xi surrounding himself with his lackies. And there was this that happened:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBG2bD-TE9g


Removing the previous leader Hu Jintao rather abruptly...

Now these Congresses are usually tightly regimented. So for this to happen was amiss.

I tried reading up on it across the forums on what analysts and investors overall think about it, and I put
together some reasons why it happened...

Hunky-dory view
-Hu had been ill before the Congress...but still wanted to attend.
So they had to get him off to rest elsewhere.
He did doze off in the opening ceremony too.

This is the POV peddled by the media though:

(While this article is written by a China source, the arguments seem to fit)


Slightly 'oh noes' view
-Xi wants to show the world he wanna break off the influence of party elders (who could meddle
in crucial decision-making)


Anti-China view
-Xi wants to KILL off any opposition to do shit his way
(although folks like Li Keqiang really helped China a lot...)

This is especially when Xi and Hu used to be in opposing cliches within the Party.

-----------

I read around my Telegram investor groups for the other reactions.

Some more value-minded folks declared they would SELL OFF ALL their China stocks at this political outrage-- given they saw that China had 'chosen to mix politics with economics'...

Some folks were just happy to buy the dip...

Some trader-minded folks LOVED the volatility to trade (and enjoyed this morning's rebound)...

It was funny to see how differently folks made their opinions on investing in the markets.

But it's also really sad...

Now not only do retail investors need to think about economic policies beyond the companies they invest in (i.e. JPow's interest rate hikes and trade wars)...they need to worry about POLITICS. As much as they (and we) try to separate them apart...

Even if they sold out their China stocks, where else can they go?

The US does suffer from similar political problems -- even if they don't shut down techs or IPOs upfront.

Emerging markets? This requires more DD scrutiny than even China...

And WHAT kind of intelligence or intel do investors have these days?
In the case of China, it's either pro or anti...very hard to find in-between opinions. And I've been in family gatherings that were literally torn apart by such arguments...

Folks who don't have the guts or energy to create Fastlane wealth have no choice-- but to rely on the whims of the global markets for retirement. And when Xi or Biden cuts them down?

I've heard from younger folks who were SO ANGERED when stocks go south-- that they declare they just want to look for a 'more stable country' to invest in...and somehow you feel that this sentiment spills over into the other areas of their lives. They also start talking about voting against this...living like a hermit or money-chaser...sadly dangerous things...

My own country's elections are coming up next month.
It is also the first time 18-year-olds are allowed to VOTE.

While I just trade some election picks for short term scalps, I do read up some of the social commentary sites. And I get the feeling that the younger chaps will be voting HARD-- and rather reactionary.

In many ways, how we invest relies heavily on how we think about life in general...
 
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socaldude

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Well, these indexes should be up more by this time of day if this indeed is an all clear. :smuggy:
 

MJ DeMarco

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loop101

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Meta takes a hit after-hours

"After closing with a 5.6% decline at $129.82, Meta shares cratered to less than $115 in after-hours trading; shares have not traded at that level in a regular session since the end of 2016, and have not closed that low since July 2016."

 

MJ DeMarco

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Meta takes a hit after-hours

"After closing with a 5.6% decline at $129.82, Meta shares cratered to less than $115 in after-hours trading; shares have not traded at that level in a regular session since the end of 2016, and have not closed that low since July 2016."


Sorry but I love me any schadenfreude when it comes to FB. They still made over $4B. Also, it's PE is now 10, which might scream BUY to many value investors.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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Sorry but I love me any schadenfreude when it comes to FB. They still made over $4B. Also, it's PE is now 10, which might scream BUY to many value investors.
According to my favorite value screener, $FB / META stock officially clears Benjamin Graham's value investing formula as a "net-net" NCAV - or is at least very close
 
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MJ DeMarco

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socaldude

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5853D01C-8C71-4957-AB30-AC3811CFF17F.jpeg1121C6CF-B519-492F-8271-3CAFB4BBDD30.jpeg

Good thing I listened to my gut and never bought long VIX calls this time around in October election season. :rofl:

Unsurprisingly, as soon as VIX futures moved into contango we had this nice little rally.

Right now bonds and stocks are positively correlated. My know-nothing opinion is that as soon as that correlation flips negative we will some nice “heart-rate monitor” VIX spikes. We will see if I’m right! LOL
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Listening to J. Powell give his thoughts on the economy is just infuriating. This is the same clown that said "inflation was transitory" for 2 freaking years.

Like anyone can listen to anything he says, and make investment decisions because of thereof.
 

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Listening to J. Powell give his thoughts on the economy is just infuriating.

Do you ever read the “beige book” by the Fed? It’s laughable and very suspect how they spin a lot of the economics from around the country.

This is the same clown that said "inflation was transitory" for 2 freaking years.

At this point the cat is out of the bag. These people serve banks and only banks. They could care less about the average joe.

Banks do well when interest rates are high. So they don’t really mind raising rates for their buddies.

:smuggy:
 

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Listening to J. Powell give his thoughts on the economy is just infuriating. This is the same clown that said "inflation was transitory" for 2 freaking years.

Like anyone can listen to anything he says, and make investment decisions because of thereof.
The fact that investments are so heavily beholden to him shows that America is just another shitty socialist country with a twist.

Every single economic problem we are facing right now is the fault of the government and their federal reserve.

There’s no more pandemic. Business is running. Why does the economy suck? Because the government owns the means of exchange.

The USD is like airline miles. Do you really own your miles if United can just decide it’s worth something else? No.

Anyway. Glad I bought more DRV and TTT this morning.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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These people serve banks and only banks.

Of course, and they are incredibly out of touch in their $25M Jackson Hole cabins.

If Mr. Powell and his cohorts didn't send their butlers and personal assistants to do their shopping, and instead did the shopping themselves for the last 2 years, he would have saw firsthand that inflation was NOT transitory.

Instead we got typical ruling class policy decisions...

Don't believe your eyes, believe us.
 

socaldude

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The fact that investments are so heavily beholden to him shows that America is just another shitty socialist country with a twist.

Central bankers root for both sides of the political spectrum. Doesn't matter if you are a communist or a monopolistic capitalist.

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” – Thomas Jefferson in the debate over the Re-charter of the Bank Bill (1809)

“The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it. The process by which banks create money is so simple the mind is repelled. With something so important, a deeper mystery seems only decent.” John Kenneth Galbraith (1908- ), former professor of economics at Harvard, writing in ‘Money: Whence it came, where it went’ (1975).
 

socaldude

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Kak

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Central bankers root for both sides of the political spectrum. Doesn't matter if you are a communist or a monopolistic capitalist.
We are using the word capitalist very different. You are using it more to describe industry titans of our current system.

I’m using it to describe actual believers in free and unfuckedwith exchange between customers and providers.

The foundation of supply and demand economics is broken with a centrally controlled currency.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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Lots of great value opportunities already present in the stock market. I imagine they are only going to keep getting better in the near future as rates keep rising.

I'm not a "stock picking expert," but my thought has always been to analyze a stock with multiple methods instead of sticking to just one. That way if it looks good based on more than one method, it's even better than if you were sticking to one dogmatic approach with all the flaws and biases of that particular strategy...

Plus it narrows the pool of what you're looking at. And isn't that always the hardest thing to do?
 

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOk3wBuQNcE


LOL I have watched Bill Still's Money Masters documentary like 20 times. I think Bill Still was a presidential candidate in 2012.

Never gets old. LOL
Recently, Bill said he was asked by the newly elected Trump administration to submit a paper on how to deal with the national debt, which he did, but they did not act on it. He figured Trump didn't want a war with the banks, while he was at war with the Democrats, GOP, and mainstream media. I think the idea is to pay off and dismantle the Federal Reserve with interest-free money backed directly by the US government, and use the savings on the interest to pay off the amount owed. Supposedly you could pay off the whole debt in 4-6 years (circa 2016). Whenever I try to learn about that stuff, it's too depressing. The Fed runs the country, and it's not even supposed to exist.
 
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Recently, Bill said he was asked by the newly elected Trump administration to submit a paper on how to deal with the national debt, which he did, but they did not act on it.

I remember Bill talking about that a while ago. He's very knowledgeable about how Washington works. I've learned a lot from him and his wife.

Trump was actually pretty knowledgable about all of this, he is a very very smart person despite what most people think.
 
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Listening to J. Powell give his thoughts on the economy is just infuriating. This is the same clown that said "inflation was transitory" for 2 freaking years.

Like anyone can listen to anything he says, and make investment decisions because of thereof.
I don't get how people see a clown. This is obviously about China and forseeable misdirection. The two titans are fighting right now.

America funding ridiculous spending sprees and then forcing the Minsky moment is just the go to playbook. This time around, the Chinese housing market is the bubble, which dwarfs their debt in equity and bonds.
So the USA make sure as much capital is leaving China as possible.
China (and allies) are fighting back with lockdowns and scarcity to force inflation. They stopped raising rates, because they are all in on real estate and they try to make sure the hits to equity investments hits the USA (and allies) harder than a stronger US dollar hits their housing market.

In the eyes of the geopolitical strategists these "minor turbulences" in the economy are barely an inconvenience compared to China leaving the USA behind in the economic race ... but probably they are a little unhappy that the opponent is landing quite a few painful hits these days - and that quite a few lackeys are now BRICS Plus candidates.
 
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If at first you don’t succeed, raise, raise the rates. As predicted, the Fed, in all its dorm-room-wisdom, jacked the Fed Funds target rate up another 75 basis points yesterday. That sent the SPY down 2.5%, which is a fairly large move for one day, but only equivalent to 1.5 standard devs. Maybe that’s why the VIX barely moved, up only .05 on the day. That indicates complacency in the market that might not be deserved. While higher rates have an uncertain effect on inflation, they’ll serve to slow the economy down further. That could mean more room on the downside for the market, and more room on the upside for the VIX. The Dec /VX futures are trading only about .25 over the Nov /VX, and that’s flat contango for the VIX. While front month /VX can move up more in a market sell-off, there’s only two weeks left for the Nov futures. That’s why a trader who think the VIX might rally might want to buy some more time by looking at the Dec VIX options. If you think that the VIX might rally before the end of the year, the long call vertical that’s long the 24 call and short the 27 call in the Dec expiration with 47 DTE is a bullish strategy that has a 61% prob of making 50% of its max potential profit before expiry, and that generates $.70 of positive daily theta.
Here is Tastytrade's trade idea for today. I don't trade the VIX directly but I thought it was interesting as I was surprised too that volatility barely budged yesterday with the down move we had. What say you @socaldude ? :)
 

socaldude

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Here is Tastytrade's trade idea for today. I don't trade the VIX directly but I thought it was interesting as I was surprised too that volatility barely budged yesterday with the down move we had. What say you @socaldude ? :)

That's actually a pretty interesting trade.

I have no idea what i'm doing, I just try to trade when I feel like my mind acted like an epistemological antenna with the market.

The VIX is relative and mean reverting.

So the VIX really ain't going to 9 anytime soon and it ain't gonna stay at 30.

Investors are selling premium and are not really rushing in to buy protection for a plunging market.

For example, on the inside with MJ's option thread, he buys "insurance units" way out of the money. My opinion is that they blow up because investors just want ANY insurance. They rush in and pay any nominal value for a PUT when the market starts crashing hard.
 

socaldude

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17E432AB-1940-40C4-88A0-749FCF2F6525.jpeg


LOL the last one on the survey is my biggest fear. Although in reality the biggest risk is probably not even on the list LOL.

I’m bumping this post from almost a year ago.

Although I think crypto will survive and has utility, what happens if it collapses because of greed, fraud and speculation. Maybe down the road?
 
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socaldude

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‘‘To cure the exaggerations and extravagances of the preceding period of speculation is the function of a bear market. The difference between a technical reaction and a bear market is that the first is a purging of the market’s internal position, while the second is a thoroughgoing rectification of all excesses that have crept into the ensemble economic structure. When contraction has proceeded far enough to remove the distortion and restore the balance, the bear market, from a fundamental standpoint, has ended.’’

-
Bear Market Investing Strategies, Harry Shultz
 

socaldude

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You can tell this a bear market rally and a fake bottom because of the divergence between /YM and /NQ. You don't see this jump into risk and growth assets but rather a rotation.

I think the tricky part and a mistake most investors will make is thinking the market has bottomed when the Fed finally pivots because the economy has "slowed" too much.

Seasonally, this time of year I don't think we will see a "santa claus" rally. Remember Dec 2018? LOL
 

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