Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[YanC]

Took advantage on the vol spike to sell some premium yesterday. Slightly bullish positions in the down move. If war gets real next week, reinsurance should save me from rekt. We'll see what happens !

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

Took advantage on the vol spike to sell some premium yesterday.

Anytime the VIX goes above 30, I really love to sell pretty much any put on any beaten down stock, especially the SPXs and the QQQs. It's really hard to lose money selling OTM puts as most of the premium is VOL.

Been really enjoying this drift lower, haven't lost much either.

 

[loop101]

The GLD etf is doing well. It should have a great annual return if there is a nuclear war. Fingers crossed.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

WIX down 25%+ post earnings. SHOPIFY is down 18% after earnings. Stock is down 60% since its November highs. Interesting that these eCom/stay-at-home tools are suffering poor earnings as they should have thrived during COVID.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[doster.zach]

WIX down 25%+ post earnings. SHOPIFY is down 18% after earnings. Stock is down 60% since its November highs. Interesting that these eCom/stay-at-home tools are suffering poor earnings as they should have thrived during COVID.

One reason I don't invest in companies that don't pay a dividend.

 

[MoneyDoc]

Anyone read the minutes?

Could've been way worse... I'm actually liking what they said. Who knows, maybe Powell can pull off the "soft landing".

 

[socaldude]

Anyone read the minutes?

Looks like we still have the "Fed Put". LOL

In the meantime, sounds crazy, but my gut tells me IF the SPX can break below the 4300 range we might actually see a new high in the VIX, maybe in the 40s. We'll see a big move if it can break this range. I haven't bought VIX calls in a long time, but tempted.

In my investing, I just try to follow my stratified model that maximizes coherence.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

Got a good feeling tomorrow is going to be a shit show... in downward markets, mondays and fridays are always the worst...

 

[socaldude]

Got a good feeling tomorrow is going to be a shit show... in downward markets, mondays and fridays are always the worst...

We are going to see a new high in the VIX(previous 39) , I just know it LOL.

 

[Kak]

That’s the lowest they felt they could make it based on their accounting propaganda of the week.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Kak]

The primarily gold, guns and oil portfolio has treated me very well over the last 6 weeks or so.

My big losers are FB (after the big crash I bought) and Coinbase.

 

[Kak]

So thinking about some “off the beaten path” alternative investments. I’m wanting to rent a warehouse for a couple of reasons, but business and pleasure both have something to do with it.

It got me thinking, with the space, I could physically store useful assets. Things that simply get more expensive over time. A non gold, non real estate, non stock market inflation hedge.

What about a couple hundred grand worth of brand new in box power tools, tires in some common sizes, stacks of lumber, sheet metal, copper pipe, rolling tool chests, welders power equipment, portable generators, air conditioners… stuff that doesn’t go outdated quickly.

It makes no sense to stockpile iPads for instance, but they still sell the same dewalt 20v power tools I bought 7 years ago and still work wonderfully.

Go around finding the best deals I can, make sure I get wholesale deals if possible and just go shopping. It seems pretty smart to me. This is all stuff that would have probably doubled in price since the pandemic started.

I could barter with it later or sell it for actual cash.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

So thinking about some “off the beaten path” alternative investments. I’m wanting to rent a warehouse for a couple of reasons, but business and pleasure both have something to do with it.

It got me thinking, with the space, I could physically store useful assets. Things that simply get more expensive over time. A non gold, non real estate, non stock market inflation hedge.

What about a couple hundred grand worth of brand new in box power tools, tires in some common sizes, stacks of lumber, sheet metal, copper pipe, rolling tool chests, welders power equipment, portable generators, air conditioners… stuff that doesn’t go outdated quickly.

It makes no sense to stockpile iPads for instance, but they still sell the same dewalt 20v power tools I bought 7 years ago and still work wonderfully.

Go around finding the best deals I can, make sure I get wholesale deals if possible and just go shopping. It seems pretty smart to me. This is all stuff that would have probably doubled in price since the pandemic started.

I could barter with it later or sell it for actual cash.

I’ve thought about doing this with physical oil or other commodities but never products like you mentioned. If you noticed a big market situation or move, maybe it would work

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Timmy C]

Got a good feeling tomorrow is going to be a shit show... in downward markets, mondays and fridays are always the worst...

Just don't look at your portfolio, and come back in 6 months time.

 

[Ricardo Scotta]

Thought it would be cool to have a separate stock market discussion thread, like the "Random Thoughts/Chat" thread -- this is the thread to post in if you want to discuss any stock market trading day, including any insights or forecasts you might have. Or, this is the place to post random economic activity information, posts, tweets, etc.

Here is the thread to vote on where 2022 will end:

INVESTING - Your 2022 Stock Market Predictions? Vote (Closed)

Where will the 2022 stock market end up on Dec 31st, 2022? Please vote your thoughts and feel free to comment. For voting purposes, the stock market to predict is the Dow Jones Industrial Average... On Dec 31st, 2021, it looks to close around 36,000 Where will it be on December 21st, 2022?

www.thefastlaneforum.com

So I'll start...

Which is to say that we're having a pretty interesting start to 2022! Is this just a minor correction, or something more ominous? This downdraft is caused by interest rate speculation, and that the FED will start raising them.

Hi, I have a very diversified portfolio.

I'm from Brazil, but I invest in the US through Ameritrade.

My stocks in America are:

AAPL, ADBE, COST, DIS, EXPO, FAST, ISRG, MPWR, MSFT, PAYX, ROL, ROST, TTC, TXN, WST

I don't worry about the ups and downs of the market. Because over the years, I've learned that price follows profit.

So, if you invest in stocks of good companies, you will always have a positive return.

 

[socaldude]

Indexes poised for a big move if they break their lower range. It’s close. Head fake?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

I think the markets are closed on Monday, if Russia doesn't invade Ukraine in the next 3 days, you can probably expect a pretty big up day in the markets on Tuesday. Right now I feel most of the volatility relates to potential war, not interest rate increases.

 

[socaldude]

not interest rate increases.

I think the FED will be accommodative and not raise rates at a big magnitude. And that’s what matters. It doesn’t matter how many hikes or what the balance sheet reduction will be IMO.

 

[17thgreem]

Thought it would be cool to have a separate stock market discussion thread, like the "Random Thoughts/Chat" thread -- this is the thread to post in if you want to discuss any stock market trading day, including any insights or forecasts you might have. Or, this is the place to post random economic activity information, posts, tweets, etc.

Here is the thread to vote on where 2022 will end:

INVESTING - Your 2022 Stock Market Predictions? Vote (Closed)

Where will the 2022 stock market end up on Dec 31st, 2022? Please vote your thoughts and feel free to comment. For voting purposes, the stock market to predict is the Dow Jones Industrial Average... On Dec 31st, 2021, it looks to close around 36,000 Where will it be on December 21st, 2022?

www.thefastlaneforum.com

So I'll start...

Which is to say that we're having a pretty interesting start to 2022! Is this just a minor correction, or something more ominous? This downdraft is caused by interest rate speculation, and that the FED will start raising them.

So thinking about some “off the beaten path” alternative investments. I’m wanting to rent a warehouse for a couple of reasons, but business and pleasure both have something to do with it.

It got me thinking, with the space, I could physically store useful assets. Things that simply get more expensive over time. A non gold, non real estate, non stock market inflation hedge.

What about a couple hundred grand worth of brand new in box power tools, tires in some common sizes, stacks of lumber, sheet metal, copper pipe, rolling tool chests, welders power equipment, portable generators, air conditioners… stuff that doesn’t go outdated quickly.

It makes no sense to stockpile iPads for instance, but they still sell the same dewalt 20v power tools I bought 7 years ago and still work wonderfully.

Go around finding the best deals I can, make sure I get wholesale deals if possible and just go shopping. It seems pretty smart to me. This is all stuff that would have probably doubled in price since the pandemic started.

I could barter with it later or sell it for actual cash.

Made friends with a local pawn shop owner who has invested in four different pieces of heavy equipment/machinery since covid originally hit. Obviously he’s done quite well

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[17thgreem]

Made friends with a local pawn shop owner who has invested in four different pieces of heavy equipment/machinery since covid originally hit. Obviously he’s done quite well

I think the markets are closed on Monday, if Russia doesn't invade Ukraine in the next 3 days, you can probably expect a pretty big up day in the markets on Tuesday. Right now I feel most of the volatility relates to potential war, not interest rate increases.

Lack of liquidity in the markets is a major issue at the moment IMO. Disclaimer - more often than not Ive leaned bearish over last year, but I believe we are at the beginning of our very own Rome is burning moment.

Too many talking points to cite. Not only do empires end, so do currencies. Average lifespan of a fiat currency is 28 years and the dollar is currently on year 36…. If the US were to lose world reserve currency, think of the ripple effects.

Regarding market. I’m short in MSFT puts atm. The FED is pinned, inject more money=Risk of hyperinflation. Driving into the eye of the the storm of a dramatically weakening economy while raising rates screams stagflation. If we don’t limit down on Tuesday, I’d put my money on a black Monday type event within this quarter. Just don’t catch the falling knife. Markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

 

[ZF Lee]

Got a good feeling tomorrow is going to be a shit show... in downward markets, mondays and fridays are always the worst...

Yeah, that was the same for the Malaysian stock market on my end last year when we were in bear mode (due to more lockdowns, politics F*cking around, etc).

I used to just wait for Fridays to enter new trades (for scalps)...get better prices at the dip.

Now in Malaysia, our plantation and oil & gas stocks are soaring. Inflationary theme.
And since the country's major KLCI index is primarily built of such value stocks...its now on a bullish run.

Which made me a bit pissed not just because I didn't buy them (plantations are a whole different game to understand the biz like fertilisers, crop yields, harvesting times)-- but because of the ESG newsflow all of last year that kept talking about labor issues and deforestation behind plantations. Negative press.

And the push towards green energy despite how difficult it would be (i.e. space inefficiency for solar, chips bottleneck, more pollution in mining the rare earth metals for solar/green tech chips)

So the ESG reporters were all screaming, 'All companies need to go all ESG, or else you get no money to invest. Investors want to invest in moral stuffs.'

And today, the money flow on the plantations and oil continue on.

ESG is a stupid scam. As much as I want businesses to not destroy their workers or the environment...why the F*ck do you need to invest in 'morality'? Are businesses kids to be made to do things? Let the entrepreneurs handle their own stuffs. Free market. And can businesses be 100% clean? Even green energy tech needs the rare earths that pollute even worse!

I didn't even hear of ESG investing until last year. Coinciding with the push for the vaccines and the climate change drivel...which makes this all the more conspiracy-like.

 

[socaldude]

Interesting futures session today. Any predictions for tomorrow?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

Interesting futures session today. Any predictions for tomorrow?

I think the markets are closed on Monday, if Russia doesn't invade Ukraine in the next 3 days, you can probably expect a pretty big up day in the markets on Tuesday. Right now I feel most of the volatility relates to potential war, not interest rate increases.

Well looks my prediction is not going to come to pass as Russia continues to posture and pound its chest.

 

[ZF Lee]

Well looks my prediction is not going to come to pass as Russia continues to posture and pound its chest.

The breakaway regions of Ukraine got recognised as 'independent states' by Putin himself. So he sent in troops to help them...so if they got hit by a single shell, that's a reason to start shooting.

IMO, I think that if he really wanted a buffer zone between NATO and Russia (security, I guess?)...they should all just agree to have Ukraine not join anyone. And they make it into a free trade zone so that both sides can just do business and have something at stake at the same time. Something that what US-China should have done with Taiwan back then.

On the other side of things...

I regret reading the investing subreddits now. Not just r/WSB...but r/investing and r/stocks.
Full of overly emotional rubbish with speculations. It feels like when the markets pulled back, the waters receded to reveal how poorly educated the majority of folks that joined during GME time actually are.

Even my own local Malaysian stocks subreddit...sometimes I post some charts and stuff...and I'm talking to myself.

 

[socaldude]

Death cross on /NQ, 50DMA now below the 200DMA. I still think we might see a 40s VIX as i mentioned last week as I do think the market is being driven by charts as well as headlines. We will probably see a big move soon, you can buy some straddles I guess.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

Death cross on /NQ, 50DMA now below the 200DMA. I still think we might see a 40s VIX as i mentioned last week as I do think the market is being driven by charts as well as headlines. We will probably see a big move soon, you can buy some straddles I guess.

Yea it's really been a slow drip downward, there's yet to be a big down day which usually is > 5% south. That will get you the 40+ VIX.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

ARKK down another 4% today. Oh Cathie...

 

[Kak]

ARKK down another 4% today. Oh Cathie...

“Hey!!! It’s the value stock that are in a bubble, not the growth stocks!”

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Guest-5ty5s4]

“Hey!!! It’s the value stock that are in a bubble, not the growth stocks!”

I still can't get over that quote.

 

[YanC]

Well, I might soon have the opportunity to discover how well these SPY units work out in real life as portfolio reinsurance against a crash...