Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I know how much y’all love Cramer.

 

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[c4n]

All in red today in EU. A blue chip company, that does a lot of sales to Russia, down 16% in less than 1 hour.

On the bright side, gold is up.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Doesn't looks like Bitcoin or Crypto is holding up as an inflation or a safe haven asset. It's just as correlated to the rest of the market.

Gold remains the stalwart.

 

[ZF Lee]

Oil counters in Bursa Malaysia exploding all of today even though daily RSI overbought.
Some gold counters too...Bahvest, Tomei, Poh Kong.
Metals red though...but 2-hour charts showed spring bar and support...guess it was an opportunity to add some shares.

We'll be in for a harsh pullback once dust settles...but I find that inflation will be a huger, longer-lasting theme than Ukraine.

But I'm not exactly a fan of jumping into trades or investments into sectors I am new to like oil & gas, gold...but I started that position in tin a few weeks back, and its turned into the greenest spot on my portfolio. So I guess gotta learn quicker. JPow is gonna be cornered between rate hikes and a stifled supply chain.

Also tempted to go in on aluminium companies...but I don't want to be overweight on metals.

Suddenly got reminded of Ray Dalio's Debt Crisis book...it had a chapter on wartime economics?
Need to rush to read it up even though I might turn between dry and drunken enlightenment states lol.

 

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[socaldude]

I know how much y’all love Cramer.

I trade and trust the charts. I would never trust a headline or a pundit. LOL

 

[MJ DeMarco]

The senile old man scheduled to speak at 12:30EST, expect markets to fall during and after, that seems to be the pattern any time he butchers the teleprompter with bumbling incoherentness.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

The senile old man scheduled to speak at 12:30EST, expect markets to fall during and after, that seems to be the pattern any time he butchers the teleprompter with bumbling incoherentness.

When the president started speaking, SPY was down 3.10.
When the president finished speaking, SPY was down 3.10

The president has imposed not just sanctions, but "STRONG" sanctions. Woah, that ought to scare 'em!

 

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[socaldude]

SPY up 6 handles while VIX only down 2.2%. A little weird.

 

[Timmy C]

In times like these, I just don't look at my crypto or stock portfolio.
I may be down a hell of a lot of money, but I don't have bombs being dropped on me.
Going for a nice walk in the sunshine and enjoy the rest of my day.

BTFD.

 

[socaldude]

BTFD.

In my opinion we have entered a different investing/trading regime. We can no longer just buy dips in any stocks or asset. 2022 will be a year of heightened volatitlity.

 

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[Timmy C]

In my opinion we have entered a different investing/trading regime. We can no longer just buy dips in any stocks or asset. 2022 will be a year of heightened volatitlity.

Nah, not much changes for me.

Chill and buy. No way in hell im holding onto more cash.

I'm not a trader though, might be your thing.

A few of my mates have sold almost all their positions, but I don't see the point.

Might work out well for them, might not.

I'm holding and buying.

I haven't sold anything in so long, I've just been a consistent buyer.

 

[Timmy C]

"Global instability? Better panic sell before everyone else does."

- Everyone else.

 

[Mathuin]

I know how much y’all love Cramer.

 

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[fastlanedoll]

do you guys think the latest rally is dead cat bounce or..?

wasn't the stock market in a bull run during WWII?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Stock futures are down big currently although they could get better or worse as morning comes to Eastern Europe.

 

[loop101]

Stock futures are down big currently although they could get better or worse as morning comes to Eastern Europe.

This a handy Yahoo page to check on Futures

Commodities Futures Prices & Day Charts - Yahoo Finance

See the list of commodity futures with price and percentage change for the day, trading volume, open interest, and day chart

finance.yahoo.com

 

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[fastlanedoll]

I think the safest way to generate a return in this situation is just to sell covered calls, no? if you sell them far away enough OTM, your shares won't get called away (presuming you're holding blue chip)

of course, you don't enter the position straight with cash, you start by doing the cash-covered put, then start the wheel when you get assigned.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

I think the safest way to generate a return in this situation is just to sell covered calls, no?

Not really. I'd rather think it was to sell puts which are selling at a high premium due to volatility. If things don't crash, or things stabalize, or things bounce, you win. 3 out of 4 scenarios are profitable.

 

[fastlanedoll]

but we're sort of in a bear market right now (with potential rate hikes as well) :/ oh well, what do i know.

i wish SPY wasn't so expensive or i can sell more contracts.
may I know how you choose your strike / expiration dates when you sell puts?

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

do you guys think the latest rally is dead cat bounce or..?

wasn't the stock market in a bull run during WWII?

Read that one important thing is that we have not seen high volumes yet and people are probably mostly observing.
The swings are mostly options related. Those who bet on insane panic selling got squoze when that did not happen.
Just repeating what I read, though. Don't actually know anything.

I would bet against a bull run, though. Even if the FED starts reversing course again there will be a significant push, but in the long run the valuations recently were crazy optimistic and we have not fallen far enough under the highs.

 

[Timmy C]

 

[loop101]

Biden's SOTU address made it sound like he expects business's to become more efficient, and that will prevent further inflation. He also talked about a universal 15% corporate tax, moving companies to America, and more benefits to American workers - all things that would increase business costs. Sounds like he plans to print a bunch of money, and then blame American businesses for not lowering costs when inflation increases.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Biden's SOTU address

I didn't watch nor do I care what was said, it's about as truthful as "2 weeks to slow the spread".

 

[c4n]

I didn't watch nor do I care what was said, it's about as truthful as "2 weeks to slow the spread".

You did miss out Joe saying "Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks, but he’ll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people"

Skip to 1:18

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ-h53YefkM

 

[socaldude]

Will the VIX index make a significant and historic move? I'm not someone that thinks the market will "crash" but that is an insane and interesting uptrend pattern in the VIX. Not to mention looking at the /VX futures term structure. Are VIX futures inverted at SPX resistance? Every 16 handles in the VIX gives a 1% daily move. So 32 VIX gives you 2% daily swings.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Interesting that it feels like the market has been sliding for months, and the SPY still sits at a lofty 432.

Also, check out this chart... it's the commodity index. I got in at 15 and been using it as an inflation hedge. It's now at 27. Mind you, this index moves very slowly ... this type of move in such a short time is very rare. I also mentioned that I own the Swiss Franc as another hedge. That holding has done poorly as the USD has strengthened.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Overnight futures are down another 1.5% ... in my opinion, the best gauge on what's going on in RUS/UK are the opinions with money behind them. Based on the money, things have not improved. I have no details on what's happening on the ground, but I follow the money, and the money says things have worsened.

 

[socaldude]

but I follow the money, and the money says things have worsened.

Are VIX traders on to something? Does the VIX index only "look" overpriced? Something is gonna happen soon and probably not headline driven.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Are VIX traders on to something? Does the VIX index only "look" overpriced? Something is gonna happen soon and probably not headline driven.

I've seen the VIX get to 56 on several occasions so it's got a way to go, that's when things get really dicey.

 

[loop101]

Are VIX traders on to something? Does the VIX index only "look" overpriced? Something is gonna happen soon and probably not headline driven.

There is some guy/girl on Twitter that is always posting about the VIX. I have no idea what they are talking about, but they seem to have a large following. I think it is a quant with a model wife, who might also be quant. I've always assumed they were not legit.

https://twitter.com/WifeyAlpha

https://twitter.com/RealAlphaWifey