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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

Kevin88660

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MJ DeMarco

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So I left my house at noon to get my truck's oil change and the market was up a few points, came home and the SPY was down 6 points, nearly 1.5%. I looked for a catalyst, some headline, some FED chatter, and nothing seemed to compel the action.

Simple profit taking on the recent upswing?
 

socaldude

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Simple profit taking on the recent upswing?

Probably, or for tax purposes.

And these moves always happen around the same time of day, 1:00-1:30pm ET. Probably institutions.

The VIX has had bigger percentage up moves(20%) on a -2 handle move on the SPY. VIX went up 9.1% on a -1.45% move. That’s about typical 6 to 1 correlation.

I would be concerned if VIX continued to rise into Friday.
 

Kevin88660

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Probably, or for tax purposes.

And these moves always happen around the same time of day, 1:00-1:30pm ET. Probably institutions.

The VIX has had bigger percentage up moves(20%) on a -2 handle move on the SPY. VIX went up 9.1% on a -1.45% move. That’s about typical 6 to 1 correlation.

I would be concerned if VIX continued to rise into Friday.
Fund managers booking year end profit for bonus next year.
 
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looking long term and using weekly timeframe charts it looks bullish, on a smaller timeframe like 4h you have to factor in big whales and market manipulation all aimed at quick profits.... thats why its so risky esp for amateurs to do leverages trading.
 

socaldude

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looking long term and using weekly timeframe charts it looks bullish,

Yale Hirsch, the guy behind the stock traders almanac said “if Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to broad and wall.”

There may not be a January trifecta as he called it. There was no Santa Claus rally. The first 5 days as a warning system. And the January barometer.
 

Kevin88660

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No rate cut as expected. To summarise they want to see more months of data showing inflation being tamed before normalizing interest rate.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Kak

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No rate cut as expected. To summarise they want to see more months of data showing inflation being tamed before normalizing interest rate.
He's FOS. They can't sustain high interest rates and keep the ponzi scheme going. He's just taking the ubiquitous freebie chance to cool things off by just using his largemouth bass flap.

See this post for proof of concept: HOT! - CHAT - Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread
 

socaldude

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He's FOS. They can't sustain high interest rates and keep the ponzi scheme going.

There is a lot of political pressure as well. But in the last years, Powell has been in line with the expectations and has not thrown out unexpected surprises.

For March, the odds are at 50/50 for cut or no cut. And the market is not pricing that in. March is gonna be volatile for the markets.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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socaldude

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I'd put it at 99 NO CUT, 1 CUT.

Yeah me too. I’m just referring to what CME Fedwatch tool says.

Edit: My bad it now says 80/20. The other day it was 50/50.

They’re gonna be closely watching jobs data. The unemployment rate can sky rocket out of no where.
 

Kevin88660

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There is a lot of political pressure as well. But in the last years, Powell has been in line with the expectations and has not thrown out unexpected surprises.

For March, the odds are at 50/50 for cut or no cut. And the market is not pricing that in. March is gonna be volatile for the markets.
They quite clearly stated they favor not cutting and given the rationale. It is more wall street hyping it hoping for a rally.

Their official mandate is balancing the risk of inflation versus unemployment.

Labor market tight while cpi shows good improvement, but they need more confirmation on cpi being tamed.

It’s exactly when your doctor asks you to take the whole course of antibiotics when you have a throat infection, not stopping it on the first sign of relief.

So the only way the cut is going to happen fast is that when there is an expected event that cause the economy to tank quickly. We were supposed to be on rate hike in 18,19 and 20 until the pandemic happened and ended up in QE.
 
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Kevin88660

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Besides the well-known big tech names at the top, hardware semiconductors companies and big pharma are trailing behind.

TSMC and ASML have quite monopolistic power and are hard to get replaced.

I am not sure how monopolistic can big pharma get. The drug patents do eventually expire. There is always patent theft in India. And there is competition between big pharma as well, you cannot stop another company comes out with another effective drug in the same category (diabetics or weight loss for instance).
 

MJ DeMarco

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$NVDA kills earnings... up $100+

Jim Cramer becomes the blind squirrel finding a nut...

1708615652438.png
 
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socaldude

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$NVDA kills earnings... up $100+

Impressive considering the implied move was $66 or like 10%. Historically I think the moves are like 7%. In other words if you would have bought the straddle even pre-earnings and held it into today then you would have made money.
 

socaldude

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Roaring Kitty is back! GME is blowing up again.

What do you think the play is?

The historical performance of stocks that short-squeezed like $GME is this dead-money downward pressure.

Market Makers are situated differently now.

What happened in 2021 was this covering pressure that drove the stock up. Market makers sell calls to retail Schmoes then they buy the stock to cover the deltas on those short calls. That's why open interest strikes sometimes act as magnets or repellants.
 
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socaldude

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Screenshot 2024-05-13 at 1.24.19 PM.png

From maximum-pain.com
 

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What do you think the play is?

The historical performance of stocks that short-squeezed like $GME is this dead-money downward pressure.

Market Makers are situated differently now.

What happened in 2021 was this covering pressure that drove the stock up. Market makers sell calls to retail Schmoes then they buy the stock to cover the deltas on those short calls. That's why open interest strikes sometimes act as magnets or repellants.

Not my game so no play for me. Short-term trading requires too much attention.
I did make a little money off it last time though lol. And I loved the movie! (Dumb Money 2023)

I think we're (potentially) facing the end of the bull rally that started in 1932. When that happens we'll get a correction that can take a couple decades. There will be more losers than winners in that market.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Does anybody here have any idea, news, or source about Apple's investment in Rivian? I have heard that Apple is interested in either buying or investing in Rivian to keep its electric vehicle dream alive.
 

Kevin88660

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socaldude

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Not following actively about oil market. What’s your concern?

Nothing, just figured maybe you had an interesting take. You always seem to have valuable opinions.

You did play it back in October.

In 1979 and 2008 we saw oil rip higher just before a recession. Maybe 2024 will see a repeat?

How bad will the recession be? Will there be a financial crisis?
 

Kevin88660

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Nothing, just figured maybe you had an interesting take. You always seem to have valuable opinions.

You did play it back in October.

In 1979 and 2008 we saw oil rip higher just before a recession. Maybe 2024 will see a repeat?

How bad will the recession be? Will there be a financial crisis?
The oil market has problems of liquidity that bigger hedge funds are no longer playing.

This makes it extremely difficult to trade, taking a bullish view.

Because commodity producers are structurally "bearish" they hedge through shorting futures.

If you are a speculator taking a bullish view and long, there is a lack of participants possible for you to take profit.

$80 dollar oil, factoring inflation, is very low considering we are having Middle Eastern tension, comparing to over $100 oil ten years ago.

But I think it represents more of that the market is in some way broken rather than an investment opportunity.


Whether we will have a financial crisis it depends on If the U.S. government can successfully renew its rolling debt this year.

In the past the lesson was if we keep rates high or lifting rates, as long as we keep the deficit running the economy will be okay. We can keep inflation under control while the market is going up.

In 2017 under Trump tax cut, rates were going up.

Under Biden we have elevated rate now while keeping government spending high.

I think we reached a point that this game has its limit that is total debt burden.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Great news as I bought some puts.

After 4 hours, I'm already up 35% on the trade.

Will exit at 100%.

I had to settle for a 48% gain in 2 days. Exit liquidity is pretty poor with a lot of slippage so I tried to get out earlier than I wanted.
 

socaldude

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I had to settle for a 48% gain in 2 days. Exit liquidity is pretty poor with a lot of slippage so I tried to get out earlier than I wanted.

I thought about buying puts as well but the wide spreads are a turn-off for me. My experience is 25%-50% speculative gains tend to be a good exit. But the underlying has to be liquid.

A lot of people got wiped out going long $GME. The market makers are probably laughing their a$$ off.
 

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