Recession is over? Is it really?

[StreetsofSilver]

Unemployment is up and the value of the dollar is down. I'd say we are still in a recession. Housing is up temporarily, but we have to wait and see what happens after Nov. 30th. I just can't understand why the stocks are in a rally. Fixed??? Perhaps to make the economy look better than it actually is.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Whether the recession is over or going to get worse, I simply believe

I'd rather be wrong and prepared, than right and unprepared.

 

[TC2]

Regardless the fact that recession is not likely over, we all need to create our own opportunity and economy.

Depends on how we look at the recession. It becomes an excuse for rich people to become richer and poor people to stay broke.

What is your excuse?

 

[WheelsRCool]

And not just this President...every President starting with Ronald Reagan has run up the national debt the way the typical American runs up his credit card...

We can give Clinton a little credit for implementing "pay-as-you-go," but even his administration saw a 20% increase in the debt over his 8 years in office...

It's a systemic problem...

Increasing national debt is fine as long as the economy grows along with it, what is a problem is if the national debt becomes a larger and larger proportion of the economy. Otherwise, it doesn't matter if the debt is $10 trillion, $20 trillion, $30 trillion, as long as in proportion to the economy it isn't too big.

As for the recession, I think it is just Bernanke trying to keep the econmy from going into a depression. I mean imagine if Ben Bernanke was to come out and be all doom-and-gloom and so forth. People would completely stop spending, banks would stop loaning, the whole economy would lock up.

 

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[hatterasguy]

Whether the recession is over or going to get worse, I simply believe

I'd rather be wrong and prepared, than right and unprepared.

Exactly. Thats why I'm buying guns and real estate. I have yet to be convenced either is a bad investment. :coolgleamA:

 

[randallg99]

debt/GDP ratio has only been higher once in the history of the USA and that was to pay for the Marshall Plan.
US Federal Debt As Percent Of GDP in United States 1792-2010 - Federal State Local

you want to make money in this environment? look at the yield curve
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf

we're sitting in a record high yield environment:
Calculated Risk: Record High Yield Curve

>The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.75 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.74 percentage points set on Aug. 13, 2003.<

good chart from a great site:
YieldCurve.jpg (image)

main concern is that the yield curve has been all over the place for the duration of the current recession. The longer the curve stays wider then the odds of moving out of the recession become more realistic. But the fluctuations are large and all of the nervous nellies making their flight to saftey are causing huge gyrations.