Private Sector Job Growth: 2008-2010

[Russ H]

An interesting graph, showing job growth of ONLY private sector jobs (doesn't include govt jobs, like the census workers, which really skewed what is happening).

Please, no political comments. I even had to photoshop this image to make it non-political.

Worth seeing the overall trend-- and the trend is going in the right direction.

I expect we'll see a decline/fall off in the next 6 months (common after Christmas season when salespeople get laid off).

-Russ H.

 

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[camski]

Okay if this crosses the line, delete it or feel free to edit any parts deemed too political. I find an interesting correlation between this and when healthcare passed. Dont want to get into the agree's or disagree's with that. However from a business perspective that bill has caused a lot of businesses to downsize and scale back growth due to uncertainty.

It has caused me to rethink and slow down on something I am working on because I dont know completely how this regulation will affect my business plan. At this point I dont think it will affect me, but it has caused me to pause. I think other people are in the same boat I am, kind of a wait and see pattern.

Businesses will adapt to circumstances, if they know what those circumstances are. If there are too many question marks it is just good business to wait and get a clearer picture.

 

[Russ H]

Interesting point, camski.

The two most important elements of the graph I saw were:

1. That we are "jobs positive" every month since Jan of this year-- something I would not have thought (Jan/Feb/Mar are notoriously bad months).

2. That we had a greater growth curve in Jan-April, then things bounced down (not negative, but less). This is, again, unusual, as these months often signal hiring in the construction sector (seasonal jobs)-- but since construction is not hiring right now, I wonder what areas the jobs were in.

And as a last thought, perhaps the "dip" in the jobs signals when a double dip began? Not sure about this-- I do expect a double dip recession (as I said before, only b/c everything moves in cycles, so having an up/down cycle during a recovery makes total sense to me).

It's interesting to see that you're in a "wait and see" pattern-- how many employees do you have? Do you currently offer them health care? (we have 15, and offer all the full timers health care).

-Russ H.

 

[andviv]

Thx or sharing this one Russ. I do see a pattern... the trend seems to go back to 0... it is declining.

I wonder if this takes into consideration 1099s also, as opposed to only W2s.

Back where I am from we suffered a similar trend.

What happened was that business owners knew it was cheaper to hire 'consultants' rather than employees, due to high cost of benefits.

Another thing that happened was that more temp companies (companies that hire the employees for you, as subs, and you can fire them at will) became the norm. These companies do not offer benefits, only short-term employment.

The government had enacted a law that said that temp workers or subs could only work that way for 2 years, after that the company had to hire them as employees. So, what started happening was that companies would hire you for 1 year and 360 days, and then let you go. And then, open a "new" position and hire you again.

This is doable when unemployment is high and you can replace the workers easily, as there are many people looking for jobs.

This graphic makes me wonder if we are about to start seeing this more often than not.

If that is the case then forming a company to help businesses hire employees may be the way to go. Randstand and other companies like that should be doing great these days if this is true.

 

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[Russ H]

Again, very interesting perspective Andres. Thank you.

I don't think we'll see a downward slide continue for more than 4-5 months-- if anything, I expect another uptick in Oct or Nov as retailers (and UPS/shipping services) hire Christmas help, then another dive as they lay off these workers in Jan/Feb.

I expect we'll see ups and downs-- but I think what's important is we're "jobs positive" for months-- that's going in the right direction.

One of the hardest things about where we are right now is this:

-To pull out of this recession, we need to increase productivity. That means either selling more product/services (hard to do when sales are down), OR-- it means doing more, with less: Getting more out of raw materials, having each employee do more (produce more-- or be more efficient by eliminating down time or wasted effort).

So that's the sticker: We're going to continue to see record profits from some manufacturers, and continued success from some businesses (upward trending sales and productivity)-- but until sales really, really increase, we're going to continue to see high unemployment.

We've been trying to hire a cook for the past few months. It's unbelievable how hard this has been.

I suspect part of the reason we've had such a hard time is that PART of the 10% of people who are unemployed right now are those w/"issues"-- people who have substance abuse problems, those who are happier being at home, having a spouse support them rather than getting a low-paying job, or just being indecisive (not "hungry for work").

-Russ H.

 

[andviv]

Yep, that is also part of the truth... we've been hiring for 3 positions and we haven't been able to find the right people, or the good ones are asking a gazillion dollars salary.

Also, I read somewhere that unemployment for people with good degrees/experience are 'suffering' a 3-4% unemployment rate, while others are in the 15% range.

 

[Russ H]

... we've been hiring for 3 positions and we haven't been able to find the right people, or the good ones are asking a gazillion dollars salary.

Also, I read somewhere that unemployment for people with good degrees/experience are 'suffering' a 3-4% unemployment rate, while others are in the 15% range.

This makes sense.

I realize some may be reading this post that are unemployed, and have been for a while. I've never been unemployed for more than a few days (when I moved from Michigan to California). Whenever I set my sights on getting a job, I've gotten one in less than 2 weeks (in several cases, less than an hour).

Why so fast? Perhaps it's because I only apply at places I *really* want to work (I don't use the "shotgun" method of applying for hundreds of jobs to see which one will say yes).

I also make it personal-- I drop off my application/resume, talk w/the manager when I do it-- to leave an impression.

And most important (I think), I come in w/a strong track record of employment, and will pretty much do whatever sh*t they want me to do-- nothing is "beneath" me. Clean the toilets? No problem. Take out the trash? You bet. Clean vomit off the floor? Done.

Stay late? Come in early? Wow, yes, this is great! (means I make more $$).

Leave early, clock out for the next 2 hours, then come back? No problem. I'll run errands.

In each and every place I've worked, I do my best, and work my butt off (sometimes off the clock) to get things done. I don't complain, and I NEVER-- NEVER have a problem w/managers that I talk to others about. If I have a problem, I go directly to the mgr, and we work it out. No one else knows about it.

We've spent the past 6-7 months trying to hire someone for a very simple position-- a part time baker/chef. First great candidate put us off for weeks for her start date, then told us she'd finally gotten the "big" job she really wanted (at least she was honest). But it wasted 7 weeks for us.

Next candidate put us off for 5 weeks while he moved/got settled in, then told us (after working for 3 days) that the job "didn't fit" what he wanted to do w/his life (this after assuring us that it was, indeed, perfect for where he was going, as he wanted to actually own an inn one day). I can only assume that, in 3 days, he figured out that cooking at a inn, or being an innkeeper, was no longer a life-long dream for him.

The next person we got in had serious memory issues. Turns out they've got other problems as well--- but these don't come up in references, or even drug screenings.

So we're back to looking (sigh). I only hope we can find someone who "fits" in w/staff!

-Russ H.

 

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[andviv]

So we're back to looking (sigh). I only hope we can find someone who "fits" in w/staff!

Have you tried offering the position to existing staff? Sending one of them for training? reimbursement tuition? somebody that may want a lateral move?

Or is this a skill that can not be mastered quickly and you need somebody with the right experience?

 

[nomadjanet]

Our service business had growth through July, started falling off in August had the worst month in our 30 year history in Sept October is not looking any better. We have lost employees and sub contractors both. We are holding onto our funds but that is not why we are not hiring. We are not highering because our clients have stopped ordering the amount of work they previously ordered. I personaly think it is double speak to say that business are not spending because they worried about change. Frankly if the work was coming in at the rate it was in March I would be hiring 3 new people this month. We are not hurting financialy but the paycheck guy or gal who is depending on the consumer economy will be hurting until something changes and people start having the ability to spend if this means they go back to work or they feel comfortable financing projects or whatever.

 

[Russ H]

Have you tried offering the position to existing staff? Sending one of them for training? reimbursement tuition? somebody that may want a lateral move?

Or is this a skill that can not be mastered quickly and you need somebody with the right experience?

Actually, ALL of our current innkeepers have this skill.

2 of them are Cordon-Bleu trained chefs, and another is an amazing (self taught) cook.

We're only doing this to alleviate the increased workload (the same number of innkeepers are handling-- no lie--almost twice the number of guests this year as last). So we figured hiring a cook would be the fastest/easiest solution.

-Russ H.

 

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[camski]

Interesting point, camski.

The two most important elements of the graph I saw were:

1. That we are "jobs positive" every month since Jan of this year-- something I would not have thought (Jan/Feb/Mar are notoriously bad months).

2. That we had a greater growth curve in Jan-April, then things bounced down (not negative, but less). This is, again, unusual, as these months often signal hiring in the construction sector (seasonal jobs)-- but since construction is not hiring right now, I wonder what areas the jobs were in.

And as a last thought, perhaps the "dip" in the jobs signals when a double dip began? Not sure about this-- I do expect a double dip recession (as I said before, only b/c everything moves in cycles, so having an up/down cycle during a recovery makes total sense to me).

It's interesting to see that you're in a "wait and see" pattern-- how many employees do you have? Do you currently offer them health care? (we have 15, and offer all the full timers health care).

-Russ H.

Right now I have no employees. I am not really in a wait and see pattern as more of a change in my original plan. My project is foodservice/restaurant related. I am still putting all the pieces together right now. Basically I am putting together a low entry/ low fee based restaurant franchise. It is unique, nothing like it at this point nationwide.

For instance if someone wanted to start their own restaurant, I would provide branded concept, logos, menu pricing, distributor pricing, training, production manuals, basically everything. The fee structure would be significantly different than the current national programs. More of a fee based vs gross percentage. The way I generate money is different than the big boys, that I cant disclose. Suffice it to say that the operator would make more gross revenue thru my system. The idea is low startup, low fees to sell the concept.

You might find this amusing. I am looking for an operations manager to carry out the day to day stuff so I can manage more of the marketing and sales end of things. I thought I found a good guy and I was going to offer him a small wage and 20% of the business. He was very excited during our meeting, was really gung ho. havent heard from him since.

Just goes to show you you can basically give someone ownership and they cant handle it.

 

[Icy]

Stay late? Come in early? Wow, yes, this is great! (means I make more $$).

Leave early, clock out for the next 2 hours, then come back? No problem. I'll run errands.

In each and every place I've worked, I do my best, and work my butt off (sometimes off the clock) to get things done. I don't complain, and I NEVER-- NEVER have a problem w/managers that I talk to others about. If I have a problem, I go directly to the mgr, and we work it out. No one else knows about it.

This is exactly the attitude I had when working a typical shit high school\college job.

I always went out of what my 'job' consisted of. I always found it weird when people complained about 'but that's not part of my job', and instead stand around doing nothing. I've never been able to understand that. You have to be there (I suppose you could walk out...) so why don't you actually do something rather than do absolutely nothing?

For example when I had worked at Mcdonalds ( ) I went out of my way to learn\do things. In a couple months I was starting to teach managers how to do things, and they'd run things through me on how to do something. I was only crew, making minimum.

If a customer had a problem, I wouldn't waste the time to get a manager, and have them fix the problem. It was soooo noticeable how much more irritated a customer was when that happened. So if I ever saw someone else going to track down a manager to fix a problem, I'd jump in and just get it resolved then. Seeing someone cared, rather than grabbing the 'designated problem fixer' seemed to make resolving problems easier.

The biggest thing I learned was to avoid the guidelines of 'how to treat a customer'. You know the silly lines everyone has to say. I just talk to them like a friend that would be ordering something. Heck, and I got to hear a lot of cool stories from customers that way. Like one guy, and a friend were going across the U.S. on motorcycles (more to it, but you know.. ). How awesome would that be?

It was also amazing how much calmer a person would be if there was a problem when treating them like that. Only ever had one person freak out when treating them like that. Actually, story time:

One time a lady order some breakfast food, then also wanted some hamburger, but it wasn't lunch yet. I tell her that, and her response sounded kind of like a slight joking jab, so I chuckled a little (you know the laugh you do when that happens..). Then I hear 'that's not funny!'. Anyways, when she gets up to the window her exact words were "F*ck you, sir that was supposed to be my lunch". I don't know how I held my laughter until she had paid, because afterwards I laughed for quite a while. Not only because she added in the 'sir' to that, but who the hell gets so pissed off about that....Ah well, it's a good laugh

Now... back on topic.... haha