Prediction: 2021 is going to be a total shit show. Place your bets now.

[MA81]

My prediction is that 2021 will be a good time to scoop up small businesses which have the ability to flourish post-COVID. People will want to quit because of financial stress, they want to retire and don't have anyone to pass it down to, etc.

I think that's part of the issue that most people aren't realizing. There is no end point of going back to what "pre-covid normal" was. I'm at the point of just laughing to myself when someone says, "once we get the vaccine, this will all be over." People like Fauci, the CDC, WHO, have made it pretty clear the masking, social distancing, etc. is going to continue even after getting the vaccine and now that we have more "variants" everyone will need to get extra booster shots to combat each different one they magically find.

I think 2021 is a time to find ways of transitioning to more digital platforms/ways of earning online if you haven't already. Unless you're completely fine with going along with the narrative being written for you and being told if you're allowed to open your own business or not.

 

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[csalvato]

I think that's part of the issue that most people aren't realizing. There is no end point of going back to what "pre-covid normal" was. I'm at the point of just laughing to myself when someone says, "once we get the vaccine, this will all be over." People like Fauci, the CDC, WHO, have made it pretty clear the masking, social distancing, etc. is going to continue even after getting the vaccine and now that we have more "variants" everyone will need to get extra booster shots to combat each different one they magically find.

I think 2021 is a time to find ways of transitioning to more digital platforms/ways of earning online if you haven't already. Unless you're completely fine with going along with the narrative being written for you and being told if you're allowed to open your own business or not.

I agree that there's no such thing as post COVID.

I still think this is an opportunity, though, since there are a lot of people who got burnt out of running their businesses this year.

 

[MA81]

I agree that there's no such thing as post COVID.

I still think this is an opportunity, though, since there are a lot of people who got burnt out of running their businesses this year.

I've been going through The Greater Reset Activation event videos that happened this past week:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS0fCOkmCAM&t=2314s


And have been trying to figure out ways to become more of an Agorist and engage in counter-economics after evaluating, as you have, 2021 and basically the rest of the foreseeable future if people can't wake up and see what's happening.

 

[Kak]

LOL, @csalvato you opened quite the can of worms here. Despite some of the negative comments, I see no utility in denying reality. On the contrary, being in tune with reality is something that can be highly beneficial for an entrepreneur/investor relative to the rest of the world.

First and foremost, this day on the calendar thing is a joke. The world turns, it gets cold and hot, we measure the time of year it gets cold and hot. Time marches on and changing the big number on the calendar instead of the little number matters zero to change your personal reality, or a macro reality. Reality is. People who are optimistic about the next several years on a macro level are doing so at their own expense. Let me be clear though, you can still be optimistic about YOUR OWN POSITION in this mayhem. Crises like the ones I am about to unfold for you break a lot of people, but they also happen to make a lot of people.

Now, I agree with the basis of @csalvato thread here. 2021s fate has already been determined.

While I think we are going to have a "crash" I personally think it will look a bit different.

Melt up vs melt down. First of all, I wouldn't be surprised to see dow 40k-50k next year. Don't pull out the champagne yet.

Mark it...

At DOW 30k, 30k buys a nice Honda Accord. $1000 buys the newest iPhone. $100 buys a nice dinner out for two who don't drink.

With the melt up I am anticipating it might look something like this...

At DOW 50k, you will notice an out of balance gain vs buying power. "Wow! I am rich I have all of this money, but why is stuff so expensive?" That nice trim level Honda Accord? (Not really a luxury good, but nice) Probably $60k now. That brand new iPhone? (A little bit more of a luxury good. Those are only for "the rich" now, probably $3500-5000.) And a nice dinner out is a TOTAL luxury good and you might see that melt up tenfold to $1000.

Your average 300k home is probably worth 500k, and once again, that appreciation would have little relative gains.

So even though all indications point to absolutely "killing it" in the markets, it matters none when we examine relativity.

Yes, I believe we are going to see a currency crisis. Timing it can is impossible for anyone without a time machine, but those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. The scenario I painted above is just transitional... That is the US Dollar on the way out. When do people literally stop trading dollars for goods and services? What point? THAT IS THE POINT OF NO RETURN. That is when you won't be able to trade a billion dollars for a new Honda. When people finally realize that they are getting shafted, what do they do? They can't get into multi-family real estate, which is actually going to kill it in this scenario, why? Because who would take their money now?

In a currency crisis, people historically rip their money out of domestic denominated anything and flee to foreign currency and assets denominated in those currencies. This exacerbates the problem and there is NOTHING the fed can do about it at this point.

The fed fights inflation with inflation. They fight a poor economy with low interest rates. There is no other choice, but for the currency to melt down. They can't raise rates right now... They can't tighten the money supply...

Now, I am NOT going to tell people how to invest. Funny the old "more money more problems" thing, people with money have a LOT to consider going into 2021 to preserve their wealth. They should do their own research, but I will tell you guys that I have put my money where my mouth is... I keep very few uninvested dollars on hand. Less than 6 months of expenses. EVERYTHING currently has its place.

Traditional investments:

AAPL- I own a pretty big position in Apple. Why? Because they are a well run company with good earnings. It is a position I have held for years and it has treated me well... That said, while I do believe it will outperform the Dow in this scenario, it will be one of my first to go.

MSFT- I own less of this than Apple, but still a large position. An oligarch tech giant with strong ties to government. Strong earnings and relative to the nutjob holdings some people have, a relative bargain. I believe it will outperform the DOW in my scenario as well. I might hold this one longer than AAPL, but it will probably be the second holding to go.

Metal Exposure- Already my largest position by far. Those of you that know much about me, know that I am a gold bug. Gold is gold. Silver is silver. They are not dollar denominated. I like it. In early 2021, I plan to split my GLD holdings in half, half going to a more leveraged position like GDXJ that will essentially maintain that upside in my trading account as I also take the other half and acquire a LOT more physical bullion.

VXUS- I own a large position in this. This is a Vanguard international total market fund that is a great play for the weak dollar. Pretty easy to describe. Stocks in foreign countries. This will rocket at that aforementioned inflection point. This is where my investments in AAPL and MSFT go when I do sell them.

VWO- I own a smaller position in this. This is a Vanguard emerging markets fund. Emerging markets also stand to gain quite a bit by a dollar crises. The strong dollar has historically made things difficult for emerging markets and the opposite is also true. These markets are also usually countries that are used to a crappier standard of living and thus can ride out a financial shit storm more comfortably.

REET- I own this. This is a broad scope international real estate investment trust. These are leveraged. This trust owns leveraged hard assets. Weak currency is really good for people who own hard/useful assets with leverage. It is exposed to the USA unlike VXUS and VWO, but I believe it will outperform.

XOM- I recently added this position. Why might you ask? With Biden coming to town and green new deal, electric cars yada yada... Because the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I see a massive cut in supply at the hand of world elite and a relatively stable inelastic demand. Rising oil prices are good for XOM like rising gold prices are good for GDX and GDXJ. Fossil fuels are in no way irrelevant yet and with the socialistic direction of our world, viable alternatives that can exist without life support will come slower to the party than anticipated. The Fed can't print commodities or utility.

Alternative Investments:

Bitcoin- I know @csalvato is a massive bitcoin bull, but I just don't have the balls to do what he does. He might make out like an absolute bandit, or he might lose everything. He knows this is risky. That said, historically crypto has been a tremendous tool of the currency crises in Venezuela. I think it might become a temporary means of exchange, albeit a hamfisted one, at least they are infinitely divisible. Someone might be more willing to trade ammo or food for bitcoin than dollars. I like bitcoin, I really do, but to me it is exposed to the socialist ban hammer, it might be in a bubble, it is a human invention, not a true commodity, and could be replaced with something better to its extreme detriment. I view bitcoin like an anarchy checking account more than I view it as an investment.

If you don't have one, I would get a Ledger ASAP.

Guns and Ammo- This goes without saying. Being able to take your safety into your own hands in a scenario in which society as we know it melts down. Trusting cops with your safety is stupid anyway. These items will be INVALUABLE. I have NEVER been such a free spender on guns and ammo as I have in 2020. I rationalize it like this... My net worth didn't move with these purchases. I can sell all of these items, already, for more than I paid for them.

If some of you are curious about buying your first gun, take a class and get a Glock. You can't go wrong. Eventually you may find different tastes, but a glock is simple, affordable and reliable. Also, a good bolt action rifle in a common caliber would be prudent.

I also am in the process of acquiring high end reloading equipment that can churn out a LOT of ammo. The equipment is going to appreciate. The ammo it produces is going to appreciate. The guns that consume it are appreciating. Even if I decide to bag this idea and move on to something else, my buying power/trading power is preserved.

YOUR MIND- Bring it with you to the "end of the world."

Lastly, invest in yourself. Own your FUTURE knowledge in physical form. Buy ahead in books. I own probably 100 books I haven't read, but plan to.

I don't subscribe to the hole up and protect your hoard mentality. I am an entrepreneur and will act in accordance with the way my world works. I will have businesses amidst anything the world throws at me. The trick is sustainably being able to continue exchanging value for profits, perhaps in a different medium of exchange.

Entrepreneurship takes these days as they come, yet considers all of this. It is fluid. It goes where it needs to go. The entrepreneur is the type of person who pulls the world out of this, we all should intend to BE entrepreneurs yesterday, today and tomorrow.

Bump.

It is May 16th… 4 1/2 months into 2021… We are dancing with DOW 35k already.

My melt up prediction is aging pretty well. Anyone else thinking we will see DOW 40k+ this year?

I personally think it’s happening faster than I expected as this type of thing is not typically linear, it is always accelerating.

Labor, building materials, energy, and food have been hit the hardest by inflation thus far. I bet we also see DOW 50k within 8 months of DOW 40k.

 

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[Fox]

Bump.

It is May 16th… 4 1/2 months into 2021… We are dancing with DOW 35k already.

My melt up prediction is aging pretty well. Anyone else thinking we will see DOW 40k+ this year?

I personally think it’s happening faster than I expected as this type of thing is not typically linear, it is always accelerating.

Labor, building materials, energy, and food have been hit the hardest by inflation thus far. I bet we also see DOW 50k within 8 months of DOW 40k.

What’s your thoughts Kak on how that plays out in the long run? Next 2-5 years.

 

[Kak]

What’s your thoughts Kak on how that plays out in the long run? Next 2-5 years.

I hate making predictions honestly. Most of my predictions are laden with both headwinds and tailwinds that support, but also oppose my thoughts. I try to give it a balanced look.

For right now, my investment pattern is pretty consistently goods of inelastic demand and companies that make, transport, sell or rent them.

Eventually I believe investors will give up on dollar denominated assets, but I don’t know how that plays out. Can we then denominate in some crypto or gold? Will they? What does that look like?

Whatever happens, I see “the west”looking very very different in 2-5 years.

 

[WJK]

I hate making predictions honestly. Most of my predictions are laden with both headwinds and tailwinds that support, but also oppose my thoughts. I try to give it a balanced look.

For right now, my investment pattern is pretty consistently goods of inelastic demand and companies that make, transport, sell or rent them.

Eventually I believe investors will give up on dollar denominated assets, but I don’t know how that plays out. Can we then denominate in some crypto or gold? Will they? What does that look like?

Whatever happens, I see “the west”looking very very different in 2-5 years.

I have totally different overall take on things. But, time will tell.

As far as investing, I too think that the power in the economy is in the basic services. But, I have always believed in that segment. When things go "south", people still must have their basic needs met.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Interesting to review the predictions about 2021 ...

Funny thing about predictions, sometime we predict correctly, but incorrectly predict the time frame.

If you say "X will crash" for 20 years straight, eventually you will be right.

2022 might be the shit show if things continue on their present course...

 

[csalvato]

Interesting to review the predictions about 2021 ...

Funny thing about predictions, sometime we predict correctly, but incorrectly predict the time frame.

If you say "X will crash" for 20 years straight, eventually you will be right.

2022 might be the shit show if things continue on their present course...

IMO, more important than the concrete predictions is the thought exercise that brings us to the point where we can make them.

Concrete predictions are always going to be wrong. If you want make God laugh, just tell him your plans, and all that.

While these predictions did not "come true" the underlying drivers were there, and ever-present throughout the year A total disregard for the economy; a blatant overreaction to COVID despite new data; inflation numbers that exceeded our wildest expectations; etc.

IMO, we identified them early and at a crucial point in the cycle.

Personally, while I played some of individual plays incorrectly, the big pictures was there. I made far more good calls than bad ones, with this thread being a big factor.

My net worth went through massive growth last year as a result. I hope other people here experienced the same.

I've been pondering 2022 a lot this week, and believe there are a lot of strong drivers that can lead to next-level success this year, whether building a business or investing, so long as you place your bets correctly. I'm personally still working out my plays, though.

Here's some drivers I have my eyes on:

1. One of two possibilities which will cause downstream effects:
   1. Governments around the world declare victory on COVID, and move on to the next agenda item
   2. Governments around the world double down on restrictions, as COVID variants will get more infectious but less deadly
2. The pendulum swings harder towards decentralization/hive-mind action (e.g. meme stocks, more crypto adoption, more DeFi adoption, more GameFi adoption, more DAO activity)
3. Governments around the world will have to deal with official inflation numbers that are about to spin wildly out of control. I expect double digit inflation at least one quarter, which will spark governments to take the reigns somehow (e.g. raising rates, trying to take more control of crypto, etc.)
4. Crypto/DeFi will continue to be a focus in congressional hearings, as the regulatory framework continues to fail
5. Digital property rights (e.g. the Metaverse) will gain mainstream steam, beyond novelty NFTs
6. Hybrid-remote working environments will become much more popular.

 

[ljean]

I made my bets & took my chances. First year with over 7 figure income. Adjusted for inflation, still over 7 figure equivalent. No reason to expect much different in 2022.

 

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