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Has Trade with China helped or hurt the US?

ChrisV

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The Chinese house of cards will collapse, but by then how many working Americans are going to be deprived of the jobs their parents got?
I don't understand why you're so obsessed with manufacturing jobs. A manufacturing job is essentially stamping license plates. We've lost those jobs but the per capita income hasn't been touched. In other words, all those people found better (or at least equal) jobs.
 
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Rivoli

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"Free markets have already shown they cant beat a state influenced market place."

Found the undercover Marxist here on the forum.

LOL. I own a factory in the US. I’m actual capitalist buddy.

Let me ask you. Has the free market US steel industry beaten China as of today?

Yes or no?
 

Rivoli

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I don't understand why you're so obsessed with manufacturing jobs. A manufacturing job is essentially stamping license plates. We've lost those jobs but the per capita income hasn't been touched. In other words, all those people found better (or at least equal) jobs.
Chris.
That’s just not true dude. You gave up when I pointed it out.

Manufacturing jobs, where America MAKES things is what made us rich. You didnt even respond to the wage argument I gave you earlier comparing the average factory job to the average retail job.
 

hellolin

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I don't understand why you're so obsessed with manufacturing jobs. A manufacturing job is essentially stamping license plates. We've lost those jobs but the per capital income hasn't been touched. In other words, all those people found better (or at least equal) jobs.


I mean if you read all his arguments, essentially all boils down to what he already said, "Why can't we have the same jobs those white kid's parents had in the 50's america". I mean really it is the same entitlement mentality coming from the right side. Capitalism's greatest strength is its ability to do creative destruction, as industry moves on to ever greater things, we need less and less people to do the same work, thus things gets cheaper. Employment is never really the end goal here, unless of course, we want to become the next China, instead of making China becoming the next developed country like us.
 
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Rivoli

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I mean if you read all his arguments, essentially all boils down to what he already said, "Why can't we have the same jobs those white kid's parents had in the 50's america". I mean really it is the same entitlement mentality coming from the right side. Capitalism's greatest strength is its ability to do creative destruction, as industry moves on to ever greater things, we need less and less people to do the same work, thus things gets cheaper. Employment is never really the end goal here, unless of course, we want to become the next China, instead of making China becoming the next developed country like us.

I’m not white.

Why don’t you answer the question. Did US steel beat China’s mercantilist subsidized steel policy? Or am I a Marxist?
 

hellolin

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LOL. I own a factory in the US. I’m actual capitalist buddy.

Let me ask you. Has the free market US steel industry beaten China as of today?

Yes or no?


So you are arguing all this time because such a move would benefit you personally?

Got it, then everything I do is also in my best interests then. My interest is to have things as cheap as possible, that would imply outsource anything that is too expensive to make in the US, and if I can not, automate everything I possibly can. You are effectively arguing that the US consumer should subside and suck it up with a higher price because this is the industry that you are in. Got it, it would be better if you would just start with your selfish intention in the first place. This is the same shit as those leftist who argue that they care about the poor, in reality they just care about themselves and hate the rich.
 

hellolin

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I’m not white.

Why don’t you answer the question. Did US steel beat China’s mercantilist subsidized steel policy? Or am I a Marxist?


A Marxist for sure, you are arguing the state to subside your business by closing down free trade, literally how Marxist can that be? do you think leftism only applies to the working class?
 
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hellolin

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I don't understand why you're so obsessed with manufacturing jobs. A manufacturing job is essentially stamping license plates. We've lost those jobs but the per capita income hasn't been touched. In other words, all those people found better (or at least equal) jobs.


He answered it Chris, because he is a manufacture, so after all, he is arguing in his own self-interest, so he wants the help of the state, ultimately to make all of us consumers to pay a higher price, so that he can benefit. How convenient.
 

Rivoli

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So you are arguing all this time because such a move would benefit you personally?

Got it, then everything I do is also in my best interests then. My interest is to have things as cheap as possible, that would imply outsource anything that is too expensive to make in the US, and if I can not, automate everything I possibly can. You are effectively arguing that the US consumer should subside and suck it up with a higher price because this is the industry that you are in. Got it, it would be better if you would just start with your selfish intention in the first place. This is the same shit as those leftist who argue that they care about the poor, in reality they just care about themselves and hate the rich.

LOL. I’ve imported things from China. My costs have risen since I started setting up supply chains here. How is it in my interest?

My point is the US is on a dark path, and the business community needs to change things To become capitalist again.
 

ChrisV

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"Why can't we have the same jobs those white kid's parents had in the 50's america"
And if you read his arguments even further he thinks that the US was wealthier in the 1950's than it is in 2020, which is outrageous. The USA is significantly wealthier in 2020 than it was in 1950.

And the quality of life has risen on every measure.
 
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Rivoli

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A Marxist for sure, you are arguing the state to subside your business by closing down free trade, literally how Marxist can that be? do you think leftism only applies to the working class?

It’s funny you keep dodging. Just say yes or no.

Has the US steel free market practices beaten Chinese state subsidized steel. Just answer the question man.
 

Rivoli

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And if you read his arguments even further he thinks that the US was wealthier in the 1950's than it is in 2020, which is outrageous. The USA is significantly wealthier in 2020 than it was in 1950.
Chris.

Thats just not true. Wages were significantly higher in the 50’s and 60’s when you adjust for inflation. Peak wage value was in 1968. It’s literally gone down since 1968. This is a fact.
 

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Rivoli

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He answered it Chris, because he is a manufacture, so after all, he is arguing in his own self-interest, so he wants the help of the state, ultimately to make all of us consumers to pay a higher price, so that he can benefit. How convenient.
Are you Chinese?
 
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ChrisV

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Thats just not true. Wages were significantly higher in the 50’s and 60’s when you adjust for inflation. Peak wage value was in 1968. It’s literally gone down since 1968. This is a fact.
Real value of the minimum wage. Dude, you literally have no idea what you're reading.

You seriously don't know what these graphs mean. You're misreading every single one of them.
 

ChrisV

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It's really simple. I have a time machine.... You can either go back to 1950 or 2050...no matter what income group you were in you would have a better quality of life in 2050 due to technological advances.

Imagine living in a home in 2020 with a black and white television, no internet, bare-bones telephones lines, and medicine from the 1950s. You can live that way in 2020 with a freaking $10,000/yr salary. The quality of life was not higher.
 

Rivoli

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Real value of the minimum wage. Dude, you literally have no idea what you're reading.

You seriously don't know what these graphs mean. You're misreading every single one of them.

MEAN wages do the same thing since the 1970’s

Let‘s just stick on the minimum wage. Are you conceding the real value of the minimum wage has gone down since 1968?
 
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GIlman

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Yes that chart definitely is adjusted for inflation. It's in constant 2011 dollars.

You said it was "wage growth."



That's a year-over-year difference from the last.

Think of if as if I'm measuring the growth of a plant every week. There are two ways to measure that. How tall it is, and how much it grew (growth) in comparison to the last time it was measured.

How tall: 4 inches, 7 inches, 9 inches, 11 inches, 12 inches
Daily difference: 4 inches, 3 inches, 2 inches, 1 inches.

The reality is that the plant is still growing, but it's just growing at a different rate.

My chart is the actual size, your chart is the weekly difference.

All that chart shows is that the rate of growth slowed a little, but people were still significantly richer.

Wouldn’t the best metric be % wage increase. Increase/prior wage. So $4 increase on $40 wage would be 10% and $2 increase on $20 wage would also be 10% but effectively the effect of change would be more similar on a % vs $ basis? Seems like the more meaningful way to measure wage increases.
 

Rivoli

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It's really simple. I have a time machine.... You can either go back to 1950 or 2050...no matter what income group you were in you would have a better quality of life in 2050 due to technological advances.

Imagine living in a home in 2020 with a black and white television, no internet, bare-bones telephones lines, and medicine from the 1950s. You can live that way in 2020 with a freaking $10,000/yr salary. The quality of life was not higher.

Here you go

put in 1964 - 2020.

Tell me if wages are up or down since their peak.
 

ChrisV

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Are you conceding the real value of the minimum wage has gone down since 1968?
Yes. The real minimum wage has gone down since the 60s. But that doesn't mean jack. The minimum wage is a number chosen by the government, not an economic indicator.
 
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Rivoli

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Yes. The real minimum wage has gone down since the 60s. But that doesn't mean jack. The minimum wage is a number chosen by the government, not an economic indicator.

But Chris, even if it wasn’t set by the government, the market is still pushing it down because all the high value jobs got shipped over seas. Thats the whole point I’m making.
 

ChrisV

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Wouldn’t the best metric be % wage increase. Increase/prior wage. So $4 increase on $40 wage would be 10% and $2 increase on $20 wage would also be 10% but effectively the effect of change would be more similar on a % vs $ basis? Seems like the more meaningful way to measure wage increases.
It would depend on what you were trying to look at. The question is: was life better in 1950 than it is in 2020, and there's not a single metric that shows that it's better in the 50's, even though anecdotally it may have felt that way.

But Chris, even if it wasn’t set by the government, the market is still pushing it down because all the high value jobs got shipped over seas. Thats the whole point I’m making.
I don't think that manufacturing jobs are the important to the US economy at all. It's not like once those jobs closed down there was all of a sudden some massive surge in unemployment. Those jobs are relatively unskilled labor, so the people who hold them can just go do something else (which they have.)

Everyone in the world (inclusing the US) lives have improved drastically since the 1950's

32040

More liesure time:

32041

32042

32043

The 50's felt rich because in comparison to the 40's it was a drastic change. It's like when someone first wins the lottery the first few weeks feel the richest because of the difference. That's why the 50's seem like they're so wealthy. The US wasn't used to that. But the reality is that after the 50's, the US got even richer, but it didn't feel that way because by then we were used to it.
 

Kevin88660

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you’re saying it’s bad to want millennials to work in factories MAKING THINGS but it’s good to just pay them for free.
Asset enhancement does not cause as much market distortion.

Market distortion like minimum wage, trade tariff, cause deadweight loss-inefficient production and lower quantity

I rather pay more tax to government than to pay a 6000 dollar I phone. Nothing is free. Be prepared to triple your daily expenses and business expenses since you cannot outsource.

It is basic economics. I haven't even factor in retaliation tariff that will lead to loss of export business for U.S. business.

Fascism rose in Germany and Japan because their business cannot have market access. UK and United States adopted protectionist trade policy after the great depression.
 
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Kevin88660

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LOL! So unsubsidized US company SHOULD be able to compete with a 14 trillion dollar state backed corporation?

You’re not even being logical. You’re in Lalaland. Free markets have already shown they cant beat a state influenced market place. If they could Chinese wouldn’t be the dominate steel producer in the world. It’s not a fair fight.

When a bottom line doesn’t matter, you cannot win. It’s not two entities competing to make profits. One is competing for profit while the other is only focused about maximum unemployment.

The Chinese house of cards will collapse, but by then how many working Americans are going to be deprived of the jobs their parents got?





We’re not supposed to be political here, but I’ll just say this. I’m a first generation non-white immigrant. Look up what president has had the least black and Hispanic unemployment in history.

You‘ll fine that president is on the exact path I’ve been talking about.
The white collar salary in US is five x of China. The blue collar job salary is around 10x. Remove all state subsidy it wont make different in the productivity/cost gap.

The Trump trade war direction is not the solution. You can ban Chinese imports it will be replaced by Indian/Mexico..

The world needs greater integration not fragmentation. Instead we should be talking about RMB revaluation. That will make Chinese cost higher but also make them much more wealthier, something their manufacturing industry elites might not be happy but their people are very happy to accept-Remember Japan who went buying spree in U.S in the 80s. There should be a common world Minimum standard on labor and environment because no one can competes against exploitation and pollution. When wages and cost go higher in developing countries U.S. millennials can say “Hey we can figure out if I can just pack my bag and move to China to work because that is where the manufacturing network is in Shen Zhen.”
 

hellolin

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The white collar salary in US is five x of China. The blue collar job salary is around 10x. Remove all state subsidy it wont make different in the productivity/cost gap.

The Trump trade war direction is not the solution. You can ban Chinese imports it will be replaced by Indian/Mexico..

The world needs greater integration not fragmentation. Instead we should be talking about RMB revaluation. That will make Chinese cost higher but also make them much more wealthier, something their manufacturing industry elites might not be happy but their people are very happy to accept-Remember Japan who went buying spree in U.S in the 80s. There should be a common world Minimum standard on labor and environment because no one can competes against exploitation and pollution. When wages and cost go higher in developing countries U.S. millennials can say “Hey we can figure out if I can just pack my bag and move to China to work because that is where the manufacturing network is in Shen Zhen.”


We sacrificed the white working class for a better world for everyone else in the first and third world, case closed.
 
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So Specifically on the example of steel. Are you saying we subsidized US Steel to


I don't know about steel, so I won't say anything about it. But you can't cheery pick data to make your argument, you have to have an honest and broad view of the phenomenon if you hope to discover the truth.

What I do know though, is that technology (the DARPA that closely work with the GAFAM, the CIA that used to buy GAFAM's data for tens of millions) and aerospace (Boeing got millions of tax cut and financial aid) are sectors subsidised by the US government. Then, in another register, I also know that the US has bullied foreign companies that subsequently had to sell high-functionning divisions (Alstom and their turbine, for example, or that Chinese company that had to sell Grindr). And finally, we could speak about the intense lobbying done by companies so that the US government let them conduct their business even though it is highly polluting or detrimental to health. It is not subsidies per say, but it drastically helps US companies.

In Belgium, we did it too with AB inbev which is now the biggest beer company in the world, for example.

Have a look at two books: Haiti, the big truck that came by and Biography of an economic hitman. You'll see how the US government works to protect its companies.

Everyone is playing this game, the Chinese are simply better at it.
 
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Kevin88660

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LOL. I’ve imported things from China. My costs have risen since I started setting up supply chains here. How is it in my interest?

My point is the US is on a dark path, and the business community needs to change things To become capitalist again.
Manufacturing is very important shitty job that business owners and workers tend to avoid.

From a business owner point of view, why make stuffs when you can flip properties? Suppliers disruption, rental increase and difficult unions, anything those goes wrong can crush your margins which is not high to begin with. From a worker’s pov, why work in assembly line when you can work as an analyst in a major corporation? That’s why you took up the student loan and get the degree right.

There is a reason why manufacturing Center moved from Uk, then to U.S. then to Japan, transited with dragon and tiger Asian economies (Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand...) and eventually to China now. Germany maintained their manufacturing but thats exception rather norm.

This isn’t because manufacturing is lucrative. Manufacturing is the shitty job that no one wants to do. But you are willing to do it, there will be enormous long term advantage as a nation.

1) Trade, debt and wealth accumulation. Because most service cannot be traded, only small countries can make a living through service, eg financial centers. If you have to buy what you use, and cannot sell what other can use, you will accumulate debt and deficit. After one to two generations it will be on road to wealth depletion.

2) National security. Weapons and ability to wage wars. Saudi Arabia can sell oil for a living but they cannot produce a pistol. In war time you need factories to produce none stop. Just look at this virus episode to see who can ramp up the mask and ventilators production quickly?

Rivoli, you are right on the problem. But just trade war and subsidy wont work. Even Latin Americans tried protectionist policy to grow their infant manufacturing industries. Yes they have manufacturing but that is hardly competitive. It never lifted their living standard like the manufacturing powerhouses used to experience. They have tariffs like 50-100 percent. Good luck trying with U.S. where wages are multiples higher..which would require much more sacrifice with others which is an indirect tax. A 500 percent tariffs on oversea made products? Are the consumers ready for such a sacrifice?

German took a different approach. High emphasis on vocational training in education. Union reforms to cut benefits. Focus on only high tech manufacturing areas. Germany is much smaller then U.S. You cannot have such a big economy like U.S. with focus on high tech areas only. You wont have enough customers. You need those assembly lines packing mobiles phones and computer parts.
 

Kevin88660

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We sacrificed the white working class for a better world for everyone else in the first and third world, case closed.
Deindustrialization is nothing new. UK-US-Japan-other Asian countries-finally China.

I am in Singapore and in the 90s we still have gadgets made in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. After a few years it become all made in China.
 

hellolin

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Manufacturing is very important shitty job that business owners and workers tend to avoid.

From a business owner point of view, why make stuffs when you can flip properties? Suppliers disruption, rental increase and difficult unions, anything those goes wrong can crush your margins which is not high to begin with. From a worker’s pov, why work in assembly line when you can work as an analyst in a major corporation? That’s why you took up the student loan and get the degree right.

There is a reason why manufacturing Center moved from Uk, then to U.S. then to Japan, transited with dragon and tiger Asian economies (Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand...) and eventually to China now. Germany maintained their manufacturing but thats exception rather norm.

This isn’t because manufacturing is lucrative. Manufacturing is the shitty job that no one wants to do. But you are willing to do it, there will be enormous long term advantage as a nation.

1) Trade, debt and wealth accumulation. Because most service cannot be traded, only small countries can make a living through service, eg financial centers. If you have to buy what you use, and cannot sell what other can use, you will accumulate debt and deficit. After one to two generations it will be on road to wealth depletion.

2) National security. Weapons and ability to wage wars. Saudi Arabia can sell oil for a living but they cannot produce a pistol. In war time you need factories to produce none stop. Just look at this virus episode to see who can ramp up the mask and ventilators production quickly?

Rivoli, you are right on the problem. But just trade war and subsidy wont work. Even Latin Americans tried protectionist policy to grow their infant manufacturing industries. Yes they have manufacturing but that is hardly competitive. It never lifted their living standard like the manufacturing powerhouses used to experience. They have tariffs like 50-100 percent. Good luck trying with U.S. where wages are multiples higher..which would require much more sacrifice with others which is an indirect tax. A 500 percent tariffs on oversea made products? Are the consumers ready for such a sacrifice?

German took a different approach. High emphasis on vocational training in education. Union reforms to cut benefits. Focus on only high tech manufacturing areas. Germany is much smaller then U.S. You cannot have such a big economy like U.S. with focus on high tech areas only. You wont have enough customers. You need those assembly lines packing mobiles phones and computer parts.


I saw a documentary feature on Amazon today on Youtube, in it they interviewed several workers that used to work in Amazon fulfillment centers. I can't being to fathom the disaster and suffering that is going to happen if we happen to move low value manufacturing back to the US. The people in the US are not ready for such gruesome work, for sub standard pay, at all! If you think the government gives so much money to the oil and aerospace industry to prop them up so they stay competitive, wait till we had to do that for manufacturing.
 
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hellolin

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Deindustrialization is nothing new. UK-US-Japan-other Asian countries-finally China.

I am in Singapore and in the 90s we still have gadgets made in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. After a few years it become all made in China.

Yup, capitalism is about creative destruction, sectors that produces low value and still requires a large amount of input are constantly being gave away by sectors that do the opposite. Think about the politics and logistics that had to happen for things to be made in China...and it still comes out much cheaper than to manufacturing them in the States! That should tell you something about workers here..
 

Rivoli

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I saw a documentary feature on Amazon today on Youtube, in it they interviewed several workers that used to work in Amazon fulfillment centers. I can't being to fathom the disaster and suffering that is going to happen if we happen to move low value manufacturing back to the US. The people in the US are not ready for such gruesome work, for sub standard pay, at all! If you think the government gives so much money to the oil and aerospace industry to prop them up so they stay competitive, wait till we had to do that for manufacturing.
Manufacturing jobs pay 50% more on average than the typical retail or amazon warehouse job.

You don’t even know what you’re talking about.
 

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