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Has Trade with China helped or hurt the US?

hellolin

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God if this is what the current voting political thinking about the world then we are F*cked, as consumers and citizens of the most powerful country in the world.

I actually grow up in socialist China, trust me most the young people here in the US are way too consumerist and soft for any kind of real communist revolution. They are best doing what they do right now, laying down and whine, while the best of them, the top 20%, are getting every single thing they want in life with the best of times human kind ever have.
 
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Rivoli

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if you go by the numbers, everyone appears to win from globalization... some people just win more.

Every single country is wealthier.

The number of people living in extreme poverty (defined as living on one dollar per day, inflation adjusted - as always) in the world declined by 80 percent between 1970 to 2006.

View attachment 31722

View attachment 31723


No. That's a myth.


Chris, Globalization has raised more people out of poverty than anything in history. The topic is the USA. Not the globe. I’m making the argument that trade with China has hurt the US. It’s definitely has helped china raise 700 million people out of poverty.

And the middle Class is definitely being destroyed dude.

 

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Chris, Globalization has raised more people out of poverty than anything in history. The topic is the USA. Not the globe. I’m making the argument that trade with China has hurt the US. It’s definitely has helped china raise 700 million people out of poverty.

And the middle Class is definitely being destroyed dude.


That's only because the distribution has changed. Again, if we look at "Middle Quintile" incomes since 1965.

31995
 

Rivoli

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There are not many plenty of poor countries with millions of cheap laborers. There is China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia. Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey etc. are not really in a position to offer "millions of cheap laborers". There is a reason why China stuck out of these.

Why isn’t India the manufacturing leader of the world then? They definitely have millions of cheap laborers.

It’s because the Chinese state is an excellent mercantilist power.

1. You are referring to an age before 1976 as America's golden age, where there was no Internet for masses, information was not so fluid and societies were not this connected.
Wtf are you talking about? We’re talking about when America had most good paying manufacturing jobs. Not when it was most advance.

Globalization did not happen because U.S. was dumb and you guys allowed it.
Yes it did. Before WW2 the US on average had the HIGHEST Tariffs in the world. The US is the largest consumer market in history, and has always been a protectionist power. From Hamilton to Lincoln the “American System” was specifically protectionist and high tariff with the literal Intent of protecting American Industry.

The fact that USA has for most of its life been a protectionist power really underscores that capitalist economies can be protectionist. More importantly, its a fact that in real ”capitalist“ economies, protectionism is a better method than free trade. In protectionist economies, profits are made and protected where in free trade vs mercantilist powers, profits are competed away.

This only really changed since the 1970’s and really hit crescendo under Bill Clinton with the false meme of “everyone wins with globalization”. It’s patently wrong. It’s time to fix that.

Manufacturing went away, because it could go away. Service jobs did not go away, because I would rather buy my insurance in person from Jack than on the phone from Chang or Ravanaphutam with broken English.

See above why you’re wrong. You don’t understand the history of tariffs in the US. Look at the second Declaration of Independence. Manufacturing did go away because it could. The point is you need to make it so it can’t.

The other reason (and the reason why China and India could stick out) was that these markets are huge. Almost every second person on the planet is either Chinese or Indian. If they earn money, they can consume. If they can consume, they open up new markets, new opportunities for the benefit of the whole world.

Absolutely and comically wrong. China doesn’t even have enough of a market for itself. Thats why its an export economy. The bigger % of an economy is exports, the smaller it’s domestic market is. I don‘t think you know what you’re talking about. The American market is an order of magnitude larger than China or India’s

The reason, why China has been better than India was because it has a more meritocratic method of governance. It is ruled by an educated elite of Communist Party, rather than democratically elected salesmen. You cannot make populism in China, because it is an dictatorship.

Again, I don’t think you know what you’re talking about.

The government of China is the only country with the distinction of accidentally starving its own people to death. The CCP is perhaps the most incompetent government in the last 100 years.

- It’s 300% debt to gdp ratio at the same time growth is slowing every year
- Repeatedly starves its people
- One child policy is probably the dumbest idea and will destRoy what little domestic market China has by 2050.
 
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Rivoli

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That's only because the distribution has changed. Again, if we look at "Middle Quintile" incomes since 1965.

View attachment 31995
Chris

I don’t know what you’re not getting.

The economy is 3 parts. Lower, Middle, Upper.

Do you see that dashed black line at the top? Do you see how it goes up really high? Do you see how the red line is kinda, not as high?

What aren’t you getting?

Lets put it like this...we have 10 APPLES

the lower class has 3, the middle class has 3 and the upper class has 3 (the beginning of the graph), so each group has 33% of the economy.

But now we give the upper class 5 more apples.
Now the lower class is 21%, the middle class is 21% and the upper class is 57%.

You’re telling me “WAIT!!! THE MIDDLE CLASS DIDNT SHRINK!!! THE UPPER CLASS JUST GOT MORE APPLES!!”

I’m telling you, the upper class got RICH off shoring jobs to china, and if we had kept those jobs here, that distribution would have looked like it did between the 1940’s-1970’s, where the middle class would have gotten half of those 5 new apples.
 

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Bottom line: Everyone in the US has gotten richer.

Some groups at higher rates than others.
 

Rivoli

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1. Learn from China, on how it scales tech and does business.

China literally just imitates or steals IP to grow...so not much to do there huh? Don’t even know about forced tech transfer or IP theft huh lee?

Innovate on what is learned, and come up with better things to create new advantages.

Peter Thiel says the US is about 6 months ahead of China - meaning every time the US comes up with something, the Chinese will rip it off within 6 months.
3. An overall more innovative, peaceful and productive globe.

Kinda kills the innovation drive when the CCP is hacking Lockheed Martin 24/7 huh? What are you even talking about man?
 
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Rivoli

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Bottom line: Everyone in the US has gotten richer.

Some groups at higher rates than others.

Chris. Come on man.

Let’s take this from the bottom. I will ask you three questions.

1. What’s the average wage for an UNIONIZED factory job in the US
2. Whats the average wage for a NONUNIONIZED factory job in the US
3. Whats the average wage for a retail worker in the US.

Instead of posting my sources, I want to see what you find, and if you can honestly tell me that you think its a great thing we let free trade off shore factory jobs to China.
 

ChrisV

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Chris. Come on man.

Let’s take this from the bottom. I will ask you three questions.

1. What’s the average wage for an UNIONIZED factory job in the US
2. Whats the average wage for a NONUNIONIZED factory job in the US
3. Whats the average wage for a retail worker in the US.

Instead of posting my sources, I want to see what you find, and if you can honestly tell me that you think its a great thing we let free trade off shore factory jobs to China.
No, that's okay. One single sector (manufacturing) is in no way representative of the economy as a whole or the quality of life of Americans.
 

Rivoli

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There are push and pull factors.
You forgot to mention unions that killed the manufacturing jobs. It is the deal that works for both until it doesn't. China gets the technology and capital investment. U.S. MNC get their high profit margin. U.S. household get the cheap goods that drive inflation low. Chinese trade surplus and turned into treasury purchase and drive deficit spending with low interest. In other words China played her role in affordable social welfare and low cost of living for many Americans.

Kevin, We could either take factory jobs back, union or non union, or we can deal with another 30 years of this de-industrialization, let millennials continue to be Russian serfs with no capital, and I promise you we will have reaped the whirlwind when Bernie Sanders 2.0 comes, not to raise taxes on us, but to tax ASSETS.

US households get cheap goods Is not better than US househoulds get good paying jobs and can actually afford houses.

Let me ask you, how far behind are millenials on home buying vs boomers and how do YOU explain that in you’re world view?
 
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Rivoli

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No, that's okay. One single sector (manufacturing) is in no way representative of the economy as a whole or the quality of life of Americans.

What are you talking about? It’s what made the US a world power. In 1940 we were almost 50% of the world industrial output.

How are you going to say it hasn’t impacted the quality of life for Americans?

How did we go from the dad working a good paying factory job, buying a house, mom staying home with the kids and living comfortably to both parents working living paycheck to paycheck? How do you thin that happened?

You’re sticking your head in the sand
 

Rivoli

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No, that's okay. One single sector (manufacturing) is in no way representative of the economy as a whole or the quality of life of Americans.
Since you’re scared to search

1. What’s the average wage for an UNIONIZED factory job in the US? $24.8 per hour
2. Whats the average wage for a NONUNIONIZED factory job in the US $22.7 Per hour
3. Whats the average wage for a retail worker in the US: $17.5!!

SOURCE:

How are you going to tell me a industry that dominated the US, payed 50% more than the industry that replaced it isn’t important?
 

Rivoli

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God if this is what the current voting political thinking about the world then we are F*cked, as consumers and citizens of the most powerful country in the world.

I actually grow up in socialist China, trust me most the young people here in the US are way too consumerist and soft for any kind of real communist revolution. They are best doing what they do right now, laying down and whine, while the best of them, the top 20%, are getting every single thing they want in life with the best of times human kind ever have.

It’s not going to be communist.

What you’re seeing is going to destroy the communists and re-ignite capitalism. Right wing and left wing populist are all extremely anti-China. Elizabeth Warren was even tougher on China than Donald Trump

We’re going to see a return to tariffs as a norm and it will bring manufacturing back.
 
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ZF Lee

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China literally just imitates or steals IP to grow...so not much to do there huh? Don’t even know about forced tech transfer or IP theft huh lee?
I know about these things. Yeah, it happens, especially forced tech transfer.

However, developing countries (such as post-Mao China) might need the new tech knowledge in order to produce more advanced goods.

Otherwise, they stay stuck at the low-cost labor and low-value goods level, and when they have to import more high-end products from outside, they burn themselves out by paying more.

Every country needs to grow and improve. Why not China?

Of course, any foreign investor that hands in his money (and knowledge) to grow a country's economy will create new competitors for himself.

The solution here is to ensure the investor gets paid, be it in market share or some dominance in certain sub-sectors (e.g. chips in Chinese smartphones/tech). And it's not for every business to enter China.

A more detailed article on this:

Peter Thiel says the US is about 6 months ahead of China - meaning every time the US comes up with something, the Chinese will rip it off within 6 months.
I think Thiel is simply summarizing it in one statement.

Not everything, especially high-value products like tech or medicines, can be ripped off 100% in 6 months.

There's lots of testing and trials to be done.

Even if the Chinese knew the US have already validated the product hypothesis, and basically did all the lab work for them, they still have to modify and adjust them to their Asian markets. And by then, it may become an entirely different product that doesn't have to clash with the US.

Kinda kills the innovation drive when the CCP is hacking Lockheed Martin 24/7 huh? What are you even talking about man?
Instead of shooting wars, we should be able to settle differences in commerce.

As for the Lockheed hacking, I guess that means more need to toughen up the security.

BTW, innovation doesn't just reside in Lockheed alone, its military ties aside.

Just because one corporation gets hit, doesn't mean that innovation gets wiped out Death-Star style.
 

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Kevin, We could either take factory jobs back, union or non union, or we can deal with another 30 years of this de-industrialization, let millennials continue to be Russian serfs with no capital, and I promise you we will have reaped the whirlwind when Bernie Sanders 2.0 comes, not to raise taxes on us, but to tax ASSETS.

US households get cheap goods Is not better than US househoulds get good paying jobs and can actually afford houses.

Let me ask you, how far behind are millenials on home buying vs boomers and how do YOU explain that in you’re world view?
I just do not thinking that is the cure.

If you ban imports so that All americans can buy made in America goods. It is already an indirect tax

Secondly it is unlikely that the millennials are interested in manufacturing jobs.

A UBI is much better with minimum market distortion. Yes there will be taxes. But it is a lot less damage to the global economy.
 

hellolin

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So in this thread, we have someone that is not just against global free trade, but also suggested paying retail workers as much as a union steel worker, and also raise massive tariffs on one of our prime trading partners in the world.

MJ, am I in the T_D or Sandersforpresident sub on reddit, or am I on the fast lane forum? Can't actually figure this out now.
 
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ygtrhos

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@Rivoli

You are still making arguments as if the United States can really isolate themselves from the world, put up barriers and can sit there in wealth while ruling the other countries.

You talk as if the whole world is dependent on United States or something. That is absolutely not the case.

EVERYBODY DEPENDS ON EVERYBODY. The whole world is way more integrated and global now. The world is a huge village of people, we do not live in times of Monroe Doctrine or Cold War anymore.

On long-term, you can only become North Korea by isolating yourself.
 

Rivoli

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I just do not thinking that is the cure.

If you ban imports so that All americans can buy made in America goods. It is already an indirect tax

Secondly it is unlikely that the millennials are interested in manufacturing jobs.

A UBI is much better with minimum market distortion. Yes there will be taxes. But it is a lot less damage to the global economy.

Jesus dude I can’t handle the cognitive dissonance in this post. Why don’t you read it back to yourself 10 times.

you’re saying it’s bad to want millennials to work in factories MAKING THINGS but it’s good to just pay them for free.

I’m putting you in time out until you come back with a real argument
 

Rivoli

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So in this thread, we have someone that is not just against global free trade, but also suggested paying retail workers as much as a union steel worker, and also raise massive tariffs on one of our prime trading partners in the world.

MJ, am I in the T_D or Sandersforpresident sub on reddit, or am I on the fast lane forum? Can't actually figure this out now.

Dude, I have news for you. Free trade isn’t Fastlane. It’s a one way ticket to the end of a liberal entrepreneurial economy.

None of us on this forum win if the CCP continues to steal America’s wealth with mercantilist trade policy.

We all win if America becomes and economy of PRODUCERS again.
 
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Rivoli

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@Rivoli

You are still making arguments as if the United States can really isolate themselves from the world, put up barriers and can sit there in wealth while ruling the other countries.

You talk as if the whole world is dependent on United States or something. That is absolutely not the case.

EVERYBODY DEPENDS ON EVERYBODY. The whole world is way more integrated and global now. The world is a huge village of people, we do not live in times of Monroe Doctrine or Cold War anymore.

On long-term, you can only become North Korea by isolating yourself.

Wrong.

what’s the % of imports and exports of China’s economy? (40%!!!Mostly exports with no alternative)
what’s the % of imports and exports of Germany’s economy? (47%!!! Mostly exports with no alternative )
what’s the % of imports and exports of United States economy? (26%!!! Most of which is imports)

The USA is the least trade dependent great/super power in the history of the planet.

before we did this radical free trade, we were 50% of the industrial world and had the largest domestic market. Now we still have some manufacturing and are still the largest market.
 
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Feeling lazy so i ll say it benefitted the consumer (cheaper products) but ultimately hurt the state (jobs went away, commercial balance deficit, etc). Although, had it not been China, it would have been another country. Pakistan, India and certain African countries are next to become the next China.
 
D

Deleted78083

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Free trade isn’t Fastlane. It’s a one way ticket to the end of a liberal entrepreneurial economy.


Not sure I agree, first because from a macro economic point of view, free trade between two countries is a win-win situation and second...dropshipping people.
 
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Rivoli

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Not sure I agree, first because from a macro economic point of view, free trade between two countries is a win-win situation and second...dropshipping people.

But it isn’t free trade is it? Did you read OP?

We are US putting companies working to make profits against the Chinese state owned industrials who don’t give a damn about profit - it’s all about maximum employment at any cost.

Its US free market vs Chinese state manipulation
 

Rivoli

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it isn’t free trade is it? Did you read OP?


I have, and your main argument is that the CCP subsidies the companies that it actually owns. Yes, it does and yes, it goes against WTO rules, BUT the Chinese are not the only ones doing that, Americans do it as well and we do it too in the EU. And to be honest, Jerome Powell is currently buying all that is for sale in America...but let's not talk about now.

So anyway, trade with China is not the problem, the currency is. If China left its currency alone, its value would be much higher and China, less competitive, but it doesn't do that obviously. When Trump called China a currency manipulator, he was right. Ever wondered why it is so hard to invest in China? I encourage you to have a look at the impossible trinity theory (macroeconomics). China needs to control the capital going in and out of the country to maintain the renminbi low, strength from which they can allow themselves to be the world's factory as they virtually dont need to import anything.

Luckily, with all this current FED printing, the USD is about to worth less than leafs on trees, so US will have its revenge. Europeans, though, are truly and utterly f*cked. But we ll talk about this another time.
 

Rivoli

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I have, and your main argument is that the CCP subsidies the companies that it actually owns. Yes, it does and yes, it goes against WTO rules, BUT the Chinese are not the only ones doing that, Americans do it as well and we do it too in the EU. And to be honest, Jerome Powell is currently buying all that is for sale in America...but let's not talk about now.

So anyway, trade with China is not the problem, the currency is. If China left its currency alone, its value would be much higher and China, less competitive, but it doesn't do that obviously. When Trump called China a currency manipulator, he was right. Ever wondered why it is so hard to invest in China? I encourage you to have a look at the impossible trinity theory (macroeconomics). China needs to control the capital going in and out of the country to maintain the renminbi low, strength from which they can allow themselves to be the world's factory as they virtually dont need to import anything.

Luckily, with all this current FED printing, the USD is about to worth less than leafs on trees, so US will have its revenge. Europeans, though, are truly and utterly f*cked. But we ll talk about this another time.

Wait. So Specifically on the example of steel. Are you saying we subsidized US Steel to the point it could compete with Chinese state owned steel companies?
 

hellolin

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If we had to shut our doors so the Chinese won't out compete us, then it is our problem, not theirs. Your argument is a right wing equivalent of the lowering of standards that is so popular in the more left wing heavy academia. We should be able to compete and win even if their state backs their enterprise, especially to prove the superiority of the free markets over a state influenced marketplace. Getting rid of the free trade is just another subsidization to the lower class, except this time it will be mostly manufacturing workers. I agree the Chinese are stealing technologies, and maybe even manufacturing with automation can still work in the US. I think high quality/high skill manufacturing is absolutely coming back to the first world countries, but this won't help the employment problem at all due to the skills/discipline needed to perform them.

Plus, from an immigrant/minority stand point of view, anyone who reference the 50/60's being a good time for the average American to me is a gateway argument to support racism. Most people don't realize it was only a very small subset of Americans had it good during that time, as soon as the labor pool added minorities and women due to the civil rights movement and opening up of the family situation, the good days were over. It is almost like in order for the average American who can't bother to read a book to live a good life, someone else has to sacrifice, hmm?
 
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Rivoli

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We should be able to compete and win even if their state backs their enterprise especially to prove the superiority of the free markets over a state influenced marketplace.

LOL! So unsubsidized US company SHOULD be able to compete with a 14 trillion dollar state backed corporation?

You’re not even being logical. You’re in Lalaland. Free markets have already shown they cant beat a state influenced market place. If they could Chinese wouldn’t be the dominate steel producer in the world. It’s not a fair fight.

When a bottom line doesn’t matter, you cannot win. It’s not two entities competing to make profits. One is competing for profit while the other is only focused about maximum unemployment.

The Chinese house of cards will collapse, but by then how many working Americans are going to be deprived of the jobs their parents got?



Plus, from an immigrant/minority stand point of view, anyone who reference the 50/60's being a good time for the average American to me is a gateway argument to support racism. Most people don't realize it was only a very small subset of Americans had it good during that time, as soon as the labor pool added minorities and women due to the civil rights movement and opening up of the family situation,

We’re not supposed to be political here, but I’ll just say this. I’m a first generation non-white immigrant. Look up what president has had the least black and Hispanic unemployment in history.

You‘ll fine that president is on the exact path I’ve been talking about.
 

hellolin

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LOL! So unsubsidized US company SHOULD be able to compete with a 14 trillion dollar state backed corporation?

You’re not even being logical. You’re in Lalaland. Free markets have already shown they cant beat a state influenced market place. If they could Chinese wouldn’t be the dominate steel producer in the world. It’s not a fair fight.

When a bottom line doesn’t matter, you cannot win. It’s not two entities competing to make profits. One is competing for profit while the other is only focused about maximum unemployment.

The Chinese house of cards will collapse, but by then how many working Americans are going to be deprived of the jobs their parents got?





We’re not supposed to be political here, but I’ll just say this. I’m a first generation non-white immigrant. Look up what president has had the least black and Hispanic unemployment in history.

You‘ll fine that president is on the exact path I’ve been talking about.

"Free markets have already shown they cant beat a state influenced market place."

Found the undercover Marxist here on the forum.

"But by then how many working Americans are going to be deprived of the jobs their parents got?"

Why is someone entitled to get the same job their parents had? I already outlined the conditions that enabled their parents (mostly white) to get those kind of jobs, do you want those conditions to come back as well? I do not think that is in our best interest to do so.

I can't believe I am arguing with people here on those points, those points should be acknowledged by default here, I am not on Reddit, or am I?
 

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