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RANT Has Trade with China helped or hurt the US?

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Rivoli

Rivoli

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Manufacturing is very important shitty job that business owners and workers tend to avoid.

From a business owner point of view, why make stuffs when you can flip properties? Suppliers disruption, rental increase and difficult unions, anything those goes wrong can crush your margins which is not high to begin with. From a worker’s pov, why work in assembly line when you can work as an analyst in a major corporation? That’s why you took up the student loan and get the degree right.

There is a reason why manufacturing Center moved from Uk, then to U.S. then to Japan, transited with dragon and tiger Asian economies (Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand...) and eventually to China now. Germany maintained their manufacturing but thats exception rather norm.

This isn’t because manufacturing is lucrative. Manufacturing is the shitty job that no one wants to do. But you are willing to do it, there will be enormous long term advantage as a nation.

1) Trade, debt and wealth accumulation. Because most service cannot be traded, only small countries can make a living through service, eg financial centers. If you have to buy what you use, and cannot sell what other can use, you will accumulate debt and deficit. After one to two generations it will be on road to wealth depletion.

2) National security. Weapons and ability to wage wars. Saudi Arabia can sell oil for a living but they cannot produce a pistol. In war time you need factories to produce none stop. Just look at this virus episode to see who can ramp up the mask and ventilators production quickly?

Rivoli, you are right on the problem. But just trade war and subsidy wont work. Even Latin Americans tried protectionist policy to grow their infant manufacturing industries. Yes they have manufacturing but that is hardly competitive. It never lifted their living standard like the manufacturing powerhouses used to experience. They have tariffs like 50-100 percent. Good luck trying with U.S. where wages are multiples higher..which would require much more sacrifice with others which is an indirect tax. A 500 percent tariffs on oversea made products? Are the consumers ready for such a sacrifice?

German took a different approach. High emphasis on vocational training in education. Union reforms to cut benefits. Focus on only high tech manufacturing areas. Germany is much smaller then U.S. You cannot have such a big economy like U.S. with focus on high tech areas only. You wont have enough customers. You need those assembly lines packing mobiles phones and computer parts.
Germany has one of the most protectionist economies in the world. Look at the duty to import an American made car to germany.

Look at China, they are also a protectionist.
 

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We sacrificed the white working class for a better world for everyone else in the first and third world, case closed.
Why do you keep bringing race into this? You’re not even an American.

I‘s cringe.

You tell me what administration has had the least black unemployment, and what are the trade policies of that administration is.
 

Kevin88660

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Yup, capitalism is about creative destruction, sectors that produces low value and still requires a large amount of input are constantly being gave away by sectors that do the opposite. Think about the politics and logistics that had to happen for things to be made in China...and it still comes out much cheaper than to manufacturing them in the States! That should tell you something about workers here..
A lot are historical circumstances that Are hard to repeat. All Asian manufacturing powerhouses went through the same circumstances. A poor population that is willing to work hard on shitty jobs feuled by rural to urban migration, a strong supportive government, friendly external environment that is willing to pour capital and technology in. Japan and Korea are U.S. allies. China fought a war with Vietnam at the border to prove her loyalty to the “free world” against the Vietnam backer-USSR. And after that all is history, U.S. poured in capital and technology. Oversea Chinese capitalists (HongKong, Taiwan and South East Asia) poured in management expertise and market channel experience.

Now even Chinese businessmen are trying outsource the low ends production to Indian/Vietnam and Burma. The Chinese strategy is to up to mid high end manufacturing. That’s why they talk up their plan China 2025.

The trump strategy is to terrorise MNC that stop outsourcing production or face my tarrifs. It is not working because it is too out of touch with the current global economic reality. A better way is to give work visa for Chinese workers who have minimum two years of work experience in manufacturing. Have a job number quota that every factory here have to hire a minimum of 50 percent American workers (admin staffs not included). America have capital, close access to consumer market and cheap electricity prices. All you need to do is to steal the workforce because production discipline, skill, quality control and management take time to get it right.
 
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A lot are historical circumstances that Are hard to repeat. All Asian manufacturing powerhouses went through the same circumstances. A poor population that is willing to work hard on shitty jobs feuled by rural to urban migration, a strong supportive government, friendly external environment that is willing to pour capital and technology in. Japan and Korea are U.S. allies. China fought a war with Vietnam at the border to prove her loyalty to the “free world” against the Vietnam backer-USSR. And after that all is history, U.S. poured in capital and technology. Oversea Chinese capitalists (HongKong, Taiwan and South East Asia) poured in management expertise and market channel experience.

Now even Chinese businessmen are trying outsource the low ends production to Indian/Vietnam and Burma. The Chinese strategy is to up to mid high end manufacturing. That’s why they talk up their plan China 2025.

The trump strategy is to terrorise MNC that stop outsourcing production or face my tarrifs. It is not working because it is too out of touch with the current global economic reality. A better way is to give work visa for Chinese workers who have minimum two years of work experience in manufacturing. Have a job number quota that every factory here have to hire a minimum of 50 percent American workers (admin staffs not included). America have capital, close access to consumer market and cheap electricity prices. All you need to do is to steal the workforce because production discipline, skill, quality control and management take time to get it right.
But Trumps plans are working. Wage growth 3% every year as more companies start buying American or leaving China.

The tariffs hurt the Chinese economy a lot which is what we want. Tariffs raise the cost of Chinese goods and make them less competitive.

I just read today that Hasbo moved almost all it’s toy manufacturing out of China. There are so many companies leaving either back to US or Mexico and Vietnam.
 
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Kevin88660

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We were going to do $10 million in sales this year, but the Chinese virus changed all that.

But I’m not mad.

This is REDPILLING the world on the CCP.


Democrats AND Republicans are going to come down harder than ever on China.
I tried to bottom fish in financial market a bit too early and got hurt. But I don’t think it is “China’s fault”. There are health science experts warning about this but I brush it off as “worst case is Sars 2003”.

Trump can get tokens of victories to get foreigners to buy some made in U.S. goods. Where is his plan for any long term solution? I need to see billions investment in infrastructures and vocational schools training to bar tenders to factory workers.

Poor health coverage, lack of financial reserves and the dismissive attitudes towards expert opinions are the causes exacerbating the pain in U.S. now. When you have no insurance you are afraid to get tested. When you can no cash and high liability you want to start work as soon as possible.

Sponsors from both parties have too much common interest with China. Once the election rhetorics is over don’t be surprised that it will be “business back to normal.” Even now many goods made in China but assembled in Vietnam are getting around with the tariffs. There is just so much incentive for Trump to score some easy points against China and declare an early Victory as we have seen.
 

MrPawter308

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As an ethic chinese whose family was uprooted generations back,
China's ascend seems so distant yet familar..

In the university which I attend, the majority of students are ethnic chinese from Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand & Malaysia. They are able to communicate in their native tongues, english & mandarin!

The portrayal of the United States on the Global stage is increasingly hostile. These had not been helped by the weakening psyche of Americans, polarizing domestic politics & junk food.

I wouldn't count the Americans out though. They do have great ingenunity in solving problems, inventiveness/creativity & visionaries.



Still, The dragon will rise again !
 

ChrisV

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From a poll of 40 of the Nation's top economists:

32269
 

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@Rivoli let's go back to the magical years of the 1950's

Back when Americans were all super wealthy and living in a veritable utopia.

32299

Back when only the wealthiest families had a washing machine, 10% of people didn't even have running water, flushing toilets or refrigerators, and only 50% of people had an automobile. The golden age of capitalism.
 
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From a poll of 40 of the Nation's top economists:

View attachment 32269
lol of course they fall on us households. But they increase prices to protect US companies.

why do you think China went to a trade deal if tariffs only hurt us consumers ? Have you seen how many companies are leaving China? Including some like wistron Corp lol. Even iPhone manufacturers are starting.
View: https://youtu.be/lswiu1K1Vnk
 

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This forum will be redpilled on China. I promise it. Most Americans already are starting to hate China (which is great) and soon businesses will leave it for good. China’s CCP is enemy #1



Do a google trend search on “made in USA” and see what I’m talking about


Step 1 is destroying China’s 5G gambit in europe.
32807
 
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@Rivoli let's go back to the magical years of the 1950's

Back when Americans were all super wealthy and living in a veritable utopia.

View attachment 32299

Back when only the wealthiest families had a washing machine, 10% of people didn't even have running water, flushing toilets or refrigerators, and only 50% of people had an automobile. The golden age of capitalism.
chris. You are looking at it like an economist. The economy cannot be left to the economist. It’s too important. Watch the videoexplaining the geoeconomic war between China in USA by strategy stuff. Ricardo economics is over. Only dunces believe in it now
 

Kevin88660

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Those who view U.S. and China as antagonistic players in the games are having a wrong view in my opinion. China isn’t USSR and and is deeply engaged in the global capitalistic system. Yes there is a disagreement on how to continue the game..but what are the underlying forces?

It is very simple where you drop your lens in nationals and think of business entity and people. The Billionaires and MNCs who have money and overt influence in the world do not really care too much which country loses in trade and who is going to be the next superpower.

Before 2008, the old game was U.S. and to a less extend Europe load up with cheap interest debt, and let China and the rest of the world produce. The consumption binge led by U.S. created massive wealth to the major players in the global economy.

After 2008, the west is “almost bankrupt”. The old game cannot go on anymore. The world is arguing about how to move forward. The billionaires and major business entities in the world are still addicted to the consumption binges. They need a reliable source of customers to load up with debt and consume like never before.. the good old days.

There are three directions attempted.

1)Moderate rebalancing- The west will still consumer with cheap credit buy they cannot do all the heavy lifting. The job recovery today is really about working Macdonald in the day and Starbucks at night instead of having a 8-5 corp job with benefits. Other countries need to increase their consumption too. Thats what TPP under Obama is about, create a new trade framework in which China will comply to new set of rules that will increase their production cost.

2) Roles switch and reset. Let those who have accumulated earnings spend and let the debtors work-follow the path of least resistance. Let Chinese currency reset higher and let the Chinese become overnight millionaires like what happened to Japan in the 1980s. Move the factories over to U.S. (but that didnt happen in the 80s). The rest of the world will work for Chinese consumers and the global consumption engine will restart. The Japanese in the 80s were loaded with cash buying over properties in U.S. Trump would be very happy if that happens.

3) The third option is the path led by China under Xi who is rejecting the objection 2. Sorry we Chinese don’t like the “old game” which is about debt-consumption binge-bankruptcy and change new customers—rinse and repeat. They do not want to have a good time for 20-30 years and end up with gigantic debt like U.S, Europe and Japan, and having their industries relocated to other countries. So the Chinese are taking the lead to experiment something different. The Chinese approach is “grooming your customers”. The Chinese projects in Pakistan, central asia, south east Asia and eastern Europe and major development projects of extremely low interest loans to develop infrastructures there. Teach your customer to have jobs to earn an income so that they can buy your goods in the future. The Chinese see their approach as more sustainable in the long term.

Summary
1) All the elites (doesnt matter Chinese or American) in the world want economic growth and a new way of moving the engine forward. They know that the old way (U.S. to load up with more debt and consume) cannot go on any more.

2) In the new global economic order you need a new reliable source of customers to kick start the game. The question is who play the role of new customers and how do they sustain their purchasing power. That is what the world disagree about.
 
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So China is starting to ban all the biggest Australian exports to China.

The world is going to wake up to what I’ve been saying
 

mr4ffe

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I think free competition between American and Chinese consumers would yield a better result for consumers (and technological advancement in general) than arbitrary tolls have/will.
 

Kevin88660

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So China is starting to ban all the biggest Australian exports to China.

The world is going to wake up to what I’ve been saying
So China is starting to ban all the biggest Australian exports to China.

The world is going to wake up to what I’ve been saying
China is retaliating against Australia for supporting U.S. in putting the covid blame on China.

More economic sanctions will come from the Chinese. There are talks about sanctioning against U.S. senators, their business, and business owned by their family members in doing business in China and dealing with Chinese companies.
 
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China is retaliating against Australia for supporting U.S. in putting the covid blame on China.

More economic sanctions will come from the Chinese. There are talks about sanctioning against U.S. senators, their business, and business owned by their family members in doing business in China and dealing with Chinese companies.
LOL
Australia just asked for an independent investigation and autistic China lost its shit. Expect every Chinese trade power to try to get more on team USA
 
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I think free competition between American and Chinese consumers would yield a better result for consumers (and technological advancement in general) than arbitrary tolls have/will.
If only China wasn’t the most protectionist great economy in the world
 

Kevin88660

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LOL
Australia just asked for an independent investigation and autistic China lost its shit. Expect every Chinese trade power to try to get more on team USA
Uncle Sam isn’t making up for their loss either..in fact U.S. is targeting every country not just China for having persistent trade surplus with U.S. Doesn’t look like someone in a position to recruit Allies.
 

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Uncle Sam isn’t making up for their loss either..in fact U.S. is targeting every country not just China for having persistent trade surplus with U.S. Doesn’t look like someone in a position to recruit Allies.
Kevin, when you have the biggest DOMESTIC market in the world, you don’t need allies.
 
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Interesting to watch how the Taiwanese company will deal with U.S. unions later.
They have to play by our rules if they want access. China does the same thing. Most companies cannot even operate in China
 

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@ChrisV eternally, utterly and completely BTFO
I'm not sure the point of this. Is this in regards to my prediction that manufacturing jobs wouldn't come back to the US?

Well it looks like there are certain jobs coming back. The virus has turned consumers against the chinese, and that's something that's hard to predict.

So in other words you want me to admit you were right? I'm not fully convinced it was anything but dumb luck.

I don't understand why you want more manufacturing jobs. It's almost like saying "We need more janitorial positions in the US." Ermmmm... how about focusing on STEM jobs and high-paying positions. I don't see the obsession with manufacturing.
 

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