Finally found a mountain to start my fastlane journey, Stocks

[fastbo]

Ok you guys are right, it's not *technically* a zero sum game because people don't cash out after each trade, but the point is that for me to make $1 there has to be another sucker willing to give up that extra $1. There are no gains without another sucker anteing in. The reason the stock market grows long term is because of population growth, and the stock market/401k/IRA retirement scheme.

Over the short term day trading is more of a zero sum game. If a stock is bouncing around and you're taking gains, someone is taking the losing side of that trade.

Day Trading has survivor bias built into it. Lots of people are losing, they just don't brag about it.
Point is, day trading = Vegas. There are people who can consistently make money day trading or playing poker. Reality is, everyone can't make money day trading because there has to be a loser for each winning trade. You can also wipe out your years work on one bad trade.

If you're read the book, compare stocks to the fastlane. Are you building a brand/company you can sell by daytrading? Unless you're selling shovels to the daytraders, you're not. You're just in another gold rush. Yes you can get rich, but the odds are against you.

Compare this to a company you can build... that gains value over time. That you could exit in a liquidity event. That won't be up $2k one day and down $1k the next. If you're talented at day trading, consider selling shovels to other day traders. Develop educational products. Do seminars or live training. Develop software tools people can use. etc.

Technically that's pretty irrelevant for the individual trader and it's still not true that for every win someone has to lose. The reality is that individual traders can beat the global average and often do and there's nothing strange or irregular about it. Individual traders have different risk appetitites to fund managers who have to be extremely conservative and responsible with other people's money. There are millions of traders each with their own style and commitment. Sorry, but I think you might be drawing a bit of a long bow there, it's not zero sum.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[windchaser]

Let me ask you something, that 25%, is it coming from beta or from alpha? What criteria you choose for selecting investments? It is very easy to make money in a bull market. But wait until the next pull back, you will see how much fun that is! In my opinion the approach you are following is no better than playing in a casino. Good luck, because you are going to need it! If you want to do it just for fun that is ok, but if I were you I wouldn't put all my savings there.

 

[MidwestLandlord]

Technically it's a zero sum game where the average return of the market is by definition the average return for all investors in the market.

Zero sum means that the pool of money only expands when someone puts money in the pot. Poker is a zero sum game.

The stock market expands based on extrinsic value, or "good will", meaning investors are willing to pay more than the intrinsic value (liquidation or "book" value) of the underlying company's assets.

Therefore, it is a positive sum game. The money pool expands without the addition of additional physical currency.

Extrinsic value being high right now is why some , including me, are saying that the stock market is over-priced.

I.e. the prices of individual stocks are too high compared to the book value(s).

 

[Millenial_Kid5K1]

Technically that's pretty irrelevant for the individual trader and it's still not true that for every win someone has to lose. The reality is that individual traders can beat the global average and often do and there's nothing strange or irregular about it. Individual traders have different risk appetitites to fund managers who have to be extremely conservative and responsible with other people's money. There are millions of traders each with their own style and commitment. Sorry, but I think you might be drawing a bit of a long bow there, it's not zero sum.

Perhaps it's not relevant for the average trader, but I'd say it's very relevant for the average investor. What it tells me is to use index funds and not bother with individual stocks, unless I have years to spend developing a system to beat the smartest minds in the financial game(like any of the stock market wizards.)

Then again, for me this is all asset preservation, not wealth building.

Zero sum means that the pool of money only expands when someone puts money in the pot. Poker is a zero sum game.

The stock market expands based on extrinsic value, or "good will", meaning investors are willing to pay more than the intrinsic value (liquidation or "book" value) of the underlying company's assets.

Therefore, it is a positive sum game. The money pool expands without the addition of additional physical currency.

Extrinsic value being high right now is why some , including me, are saying that the stock market is over-priced.

I.e. the prices of individual stocks are too high compared to the book value(s).

Thanks for the explanation, I was confused on the meaning of the term.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Soulrize]

Hello to those still even interested in my trip,
So situations have changed as I've been really digging in . I've been continuing the trading and I've joined sure trader which allows day trades and 6x margin .
results so far
- Commissions come to anywhere from 50-250 a day
- P/L overall is positive but still close to break even

I've been journaling my trades and I've noticed one pattern in particular. I narrowed down the cause for this break-even effect, it isn't a system its a user problem mainly me. It comes with compelling evidence that even though I choose the good stocks the majority of the time , My impatience has held me back from earning more than break even. Its literally minutes and I noticed I hold stocks for anywhere to 2mintues to an average of 10-15. When I look back and review, Had I held it for 30 minutes instead of 2 minutes or at most 2 hrs instead of 25minutes I would be doing very well. Not to say all my trades I'm impatience but the majority of them I am and its been costing me.
Current status
- Working on this patience deal to optimize my returns,
-Learning machine learning since I'm interested on how a machine can possibly optimize my trading even more.

If anyone has any advice on how they deal with impatience I'd greatly appreciate it .

Thanks for reading.

 

[Soulrize]

Today I connected a dot on a loss. It comes down to what I read in unscripted about beliefs. For example, I go into a stock with the belief its going up. I buy, And what I generally do was react TOO quickly ie it goes up a tick, I sell or goes down a tick I sell. Today I realised what I have to have patience on, that's waiting for actionable knowledge. It comes out with time as the stock heads up in one direction or another. Today I did other activities besides stare at my screen, with an occasional glance every so often. Then thirty minutes passed easily and I saw what I bought wasn't moving towards the direction I believed so I sold out. I realised staring at my P/L or stocks every second makes me too anxious. This gives me a sense of control keeping me level headed while keeping it simple, once my belief is validated after more time, I will ride the wave longer or get out if it doesn't.

 

[BrooklynHustle]

Hello to those still even interested in my trip,
So situations have changed as I've been really digging in . I've been continuing the trading and I've joined sure trader which allows day trades and 6x margin .
results so far
- Commissions come to anywhere from 50-250 a day
- P/L overall is positive but still close to break even

I've been journaling my trades and I've noticed one pattern in particular. I narrowed down the cause for this break-even effect, it isn't a system its a user problem mainly me. It comes with compelling evidence that even though I choose the good stocks the majority of the time , My impatience has held me back from earning more than break even. Its literally minutes and I noticed I hold stocks for anywhere to 2mintues to an average of 10-15. When I look back and review, Had I held it for 30 minutes instead of 2 minutes or at most 2 hrs instead of 25minutes I would be doing very well. Not to say all my trades I'm impatience but the majority of them I am and its been costing me.
Current status
- Working on this patience deal to optimize my returns,
-Learning machine learning since I'm interested on how a machine can possibly optimize my trading even more.

If anyone has any advice on how they deal with impatience I'd greatly appreciate it .

Thanks for reading.

There is some good advice about the stock market above, but you don't seem to want to hear it...

This post reads a little bit like someone trying to figure out a gambling system to beat the House/Casino

Not trying to be harsh, but it is what it is...

Anyway, best of luck in your journey & hope you will heed some of the advice in this forum

It's OK to give up on a single path that doesn't work as long as you don't give up on the dream

I would start thinking about market needs

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

You've been doing this 3 years and have only broke even? Mind you, breaking even in a market that has gone up 10% is losing 10% because the opportunity cost is spending ZERO time and getting the S&P return.

 

[Soulrize]

There is some good advice about the stock market above, but you don't seem to want to hear it...

This post reads a little bit like someone trying to figure out a gambling system to beat the House/Casino

Not trying to be harsh, but it is what it is...

Anyway, best of luck in your journey & hope you will heed some of the advice in this forum

It's OK to give up on a single path that doesn't work as long as you don't give up on the dream

I would start thinking about market needs

I'm not blind, however, I think with some knowledge and experience, stocks don't look more like a gamble, just a puzzle that needs to be solved in one's own perception. I'd say the main objective is to raise capital but its still a process. Im still in line to graduate next spring, with plans of working to build skills I have no clue about such as project management/ building teams ect. Also using the degree to relocate cities.

You've been doing this 3 years and have only
broke even? Mind you, breaking even in a market that has gone up 10% is losing 10% because the opportunity cost is spending ZERO time and getting the S&P return.

Well, it sounds bad, however in those years I've learned a lot, I'm not relying on hope which essentially what it is if you put a little to zero time into researching your investments. I've made my own judgements and did my own research all this time, which allowed my accuracy to increase over time. I've adapted what I keep learning to my perspective, and it builds. I'd say the only thing missing from all this is results in terms of ROR. I started tracking it this month for precise percentages.

 

[BrooklynHustle]

I'm not blind, however, I think with some knowledge and experience, stocks don't look more like a gamble, just a puzzle that needs to be solved in one's own perception. I'd say the main objective is to raise capital but its still a process. Im still in line to graduate next spring, with plans of working to build skills I have no clue about such as project management/ building teams ect. Also using the degree to relocate cities.

Well, it sounds bad, however in those years I've learned a lot, I'm not relying on hope which essentially what it is if you put a little to zero time into researching your investments. I've made my own judgements and did my own research all this time, which allowed my accuracy to increase over time. I've adapted what I keep learning to my perspective, and it builds. I'd say the only thing missing from all this is results in terms of ROR. I started tracking it this month for precise percentages.

One of the core financial principles taught in TMF /UNSCRIPTED is that you should use the markets to preserve wealth/generate recurring income once you have a large pile of cash to put to work. You should NOT try to use them to build up your wealth, as that is not their strength

I'll leave it at that, but good luck to you, sir...

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Soulrize]

Yesterday I had my first break, probably due to some pressure from MJ; I feared he was making a point. I been keeping up my journal, marking mistakes, locating stuff to work on and all of it as lead to yesterday where I made 2k or 50% RoR. I pushed it a little bit further than where I would usually stop, and I know that its in part due to fear of loosing what was unrealized gains. So I let it ride just a few minutes longer, and those few minutes made all the difference. It gave me some confidence and let me be even more objective as I trade. It was tough mentally and I still have a ways to go and other problems came up such as after the trade, I was more fearful to trade because of fear of loss of what I made. Something that as I self analyze, will come to a solution to .

 

[c_morris]

It sounds like you are letting emotions dictate your decisions. This is very common and the #1 reason most traders lose. Successful traders develop a formal trading plan with a strict set of rules to follow. They also have the discipline to follow those rules which effectively takes the emotion out of trading. I recommend you read "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. It's a very good book on the psychology of trading.

 

[Joe Cassandra]

The only 'very few' people I know still "day trading" only do so in options. Day trading stocks is too hard now with how much computers have advanced and trade at milliseconds.

Start with weekly options. The trading volume is at its highest ever meaning there's most likely a higher volume of suckers with their money in.

Sounds like you're betting it all with each trade. Why not go for broke and trade the cryptos?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[bringitnow28329]

That's incorrect.

If I buy stock at $10, sell it to you for $11, you sell it to the next trader for $12, they sell it to the next trader for $13...etc who's losing? Sure, any of us might take a loss and we all risk taking a loss but saying it's a zero sum game or that for every winner their has to be a loser is just incorrect.

You obviously don't understand how the financial market works. There is a long (buyer) and a short (seller) on every trade. Money doesn't come out of thin air. If I want to make money outside of holding long term and collecting dividends in stocks, (and even then the price of a stock will drop by the proportionate amount that gets paid out as a dividend to shareholders of record), then I have to take the next guys money buy better the right direction against the other guy.

 

[Soulrize]

The only 'very few' people I know still "day trading" only do so in options. Day trading stocks is too hard now with how much computers have advanced and trade at milliseconds.

Start with weekly options. The trading volume is at its highest ever meaning there's most likely a higher volume of suckers with their money in.

Sounds like you're betting it all with each trade. Why not go for broke and trade the cryptos?

Always hated the lack of picks available with high volume in options, couldn't pick what I needed so that's why I don't do that. yeah I mean I've never had a big problem betting big positions. Not trading crypto because there's a learning curve and to me that's green grass on the other side of the hill.

 

[c_morris]

There is a long (buyer) and a short (seller) on every trade.

This is incorrect. If I sell stock that I own, I am not short. I'm closing my position or liquidating a portion of it. Also, if I am short, I buy to close and will not be long.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Soulrize]

It sounds like you are letting emotions dictate your decisions. This is very common and the #1 reason most traders lose. Successful traders develop a formal trading plan with a strict set of rules to follow. They also have the discipline to follow those rules which effectively takes the emotion out of trading. I recommend you read "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. It's a very good book on the psychology of trading.

Thank you, I believe listening and learning more about the field of trading helped tremendously, starting with podcast "chat with traders" which I believe made an impact, I can't wait to start reading thanks for the recommendation.

 

[tpjay]

I used to trade NADEX back in the day when I was first fed up with my former job I had at the time. Everything was going good and then I got emotional and was trying to show off then lost it all. I was only trading small amounts so one loss can take you out of the game but when I was disciplined I was on. I found Trading to be a blast. Looking at charts and data trends and patterns made me lose track of time. But it takes time. Time you could use to build a business that solves a problem. Trading is high risk because there is no limit to the amount of money you can lose. You seem pretty knowledge. How are your tracking your trades in your trade log and what platform are you using @Soulrize


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Soulrize]

So I took a vacation for a week just to focus on trading and to say the least it broke me. I decided I won't use stocks as a means to get anywhere. I did learn a thing or two about myself, not good things to learn so late but I had so much time to myself that I didn't know what to do with it. I was a bit disheartened how my self-belief I could trade stocks slowly eroded. I basically lost to trades and commission. For example, if I used Robinhood I would've been profitable but that wasn't the case. I had a talk with my dad, basically, it comes down to that there's nothing easy in life otherwise people wouldn't go to work or school. Along with whatever I do, be the best you can be at it because it will always open doors that were never there for the average crowd who go home and have a beer after work. It helped, I'm really debating my job as a teller and whats else is possible for me to do. climbing up is years until someone passes away (low turnover). I want to do something in production or manufacturing, something challenging.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Soulrize]

Its funny it wasn't that long ago that i was just relieving everything in this thread more than 4 years ago. My mind took a while to see my situation hasn't changed due to stock market gains and its just too sporadic that I don't give it the attention it needs anymore. My situations has become better. I've worked at one company 3 years ago and in October i finally moved to a better job with a 55% increase in pay. I have become salaried. I have been lurking for a while , here and there, until my drive to start something of my own has increased to post. I can see the beginning of the end of the slowlane.
My parents due to great circumstances has granted me a 50k loan , at a meager interest rate that doesn't have to start being paid back in 2 years. I'd quit my job and just go to cambodia and figure out something of my own but one things holding me back in my mind is College debt. So after my lease is up in march, im going home , focus on repaying 26,700 dollars of loans in a year and be debt free by end of April 2023. After which I either choose to save more , or just go straight away. But this thread for now is just the journey to be debt free. (which i haven't been since the beginning of college a decade ago)