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Feeling that stock market is about to crash

mom

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May 9, 2016
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Billionaires were made in 2008 going against the market. The question is how are YOU going to capitalize on a big downturn...
by firms trading billions....it's all relative.

Since 2008 they changed shorting rules.....retail find it very hard to short stocks now.
 

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nroudyk

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Jun 6, 2019
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Not intending to offend you, but I clicked this thread hoping there would be more quantatative analysis. A vague "feeling" and a quick glance at a chart is no way to time the market. There are people who do this successfully for a living but they have a lot more tools and knowledge at their disposal than you and I. They're also a very small minority, most of the pros CANNOT beat the stock market or time it correctly, this has been conclusively proven.

Simply depositing a part of your paycheck like clockwork is the way to go, but that is definitely slowlane. When you're 65 or your parents are 65, they MAY be able to retire in dignity.

Also, 36,000 really isn't a meaningful amount of money. It wont change your life if you live in a developed country. I would focus a lot more on building a viable business in line with the philosophy of this forum than trying to squeeze out a couple more % out of meagre retirement funds. When you're pulling like 10k a month, then it may make sense to manage your investments, but you have to get some money to invest first.
 

mikey3times

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On Sep 18, 2015 (the day before this thread started) the S&P 500 closed at $1,958.03.

Yesterday (7/10/19) the S&P 500 closed at $2,993.07.

Someone smarter than me can compare historical bond prices, but even if the bonds outperformed the S&P, the market didn’t crash.

Don’t time the market and don’t make financial decisions based on, “I have a feeling.”
 

Disciple96

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Mar 5, 2016
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Wouldn't it be better to just HODL and invest even more when the markets are down instead of trying to beat the market?

I'm not an investor - this is just common investment advice I've heard.
 

SchenkFinancial

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Jul 17, 2019
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Imagine a classic bakery producing and selling bread. The baker running the bakery is certainly not afraid that tomorrow his business model will break down.

An investor buying good companies does not worry about short-term developments. If you had invested in good stocks the day before Lehman's collapse, today you would have substantial profits anyway.

You should not focus on "markets" but rather on companies; companies that hardly notice the ups and downs of short-term developments in their annual reports.

In terms of Trump, it is safe to say that he considers the development of the stock market as a benchmark for his success as president and as a consequence, he will probably do everything he can in order to make the stock market and the real economy develop favourably. In the United States, the stock market and the real economy are much closer to each other than our stock market and our real economy in Germany. In the US, the real economy and capital markets are much more synchronized through retirement fund systems and personal portfolios.
 

guy93777

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Jun 5, 2019
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Imagine a classic bakery producing and selling bread. The baker running the bakery is certainly not afraid that tomorrow his business model will break down.

An investor buying good companies does not worry about short-term developments. If you had invested in good stocks the day before Lehman's collapse, today you would have substantial profits anyway.

You should not focus on "markets" but rather on companies; companies that hardly notice the ups and downs of short-term developments in their annual reports.

In terms of Trump, it is safe to say that he considers the development of the stock market as a benchmark for his success as president and as a consequence, he will probably do everything he can in order to make the stock market and the real economy develop favourably. In the United States, the stock market and the real economy are much closer to each other than our stock market and our real economy in Germany. In the US, the real economy and capital markets are much more synchronized through retirement fund systems and personal portfolios.

most people think that this author is wrong . everything is fine forever until the end of the earth

25886



maybe



i think that the worst financial crisis ever seen is coming because i have insider knowledge ( masterminds owning the world )

but i have to respect the mainstream ideas. so let's say everything is fine for ever

.
 

Gamefan

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Apr 26, 2019
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Ha, thats ridiculous. Let me get my chicken bones and voodoo dolls out. Better yet, let me raise some biblical prophets from the grave and get some answers...
 

SchenkFinancial

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most people think that this author is wrong . everything is fine forever until the end of the earth

View attachment 25886



maybe



i think that the worst financial crisis ever seen is coming because i have insider knowledge ( masterminds owning the world )

but i have to respect the mainstream ideas. so let's say everything is fine for ever

.
Thank you for your opinion. I also respect your point of view. Ultimately, however, the stock market is currently not in a phase of euphoria, like in 2000 or in 2007, when people were so heavily invested in stocks that the only possible outcome was a bear market. It is currently quite the opposite, actually. The predominant emotion in the stock market right now is caution, for which there are well-founded reasons.

Furthermore, if you take a look at the put-call ratio just before Black Monday in 1987, you can see that market participants were buying an enormous number of call options. This scenario is currently not the case, so there is room for optimism.
 
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