Neither are you nor your post crazy. It make perfect sense to me. From my stand point Amazon, and online publishing is facing a
consolidation in a near future.
--- Why do I think this?
Amazon and many other publishing platforms has long been around and provided a no-entry for aspiring indie writers who yearn for fame and virtue. But exactly as
@Rawr mentions this is not something that can go on forever.
A consolidation means that big players capture larger portions of a market, or even the majority of the market to make it more difficult for smaller players to get in. Hence increasing the "no-entry." This will result in an increasing number of writers who will go out of business faster due to the fact that they do not produce good enough quality to sustain a proper business (they where riding the money train).
A consolidation happens if a market is saturated, however books, or scripts has been around for thousands of years and is unlikely to go away, ever. But poor quality has never been sustainable. If you think about it. Can you mention a famous book from the past that is absolutely crap or regurgitated bullshit? A pretty hard task to do. The majority of what is remembered through history is quality work. Not saying always positive, but quality in a sense that it was of high performance with the intentions it had.
- So, if you are an established business on Amazon or another publishing platform, you are probably looking at a solidification of your business. I.e. if you put in the time you might look at a more stable business for yourself in a near future.
- If you know you publish poor content, perhaps this is the time to think about where you want to be in the future. If the market consolidates and the demand for volume disappears you might find yourself out of business.
This happens because of market trends and cycles between those that consolidated out of the market place and are moving on to the next opportunity. It will eventually be harder for new players to enter the market as the needs for entry will rise and those who already have market shares will solidify their positions and push away smaller players. As with any market.
--- The next big thing
When the market consolidates, a lot of actors on the market usually look for the next big thing. The next wild west. It does not mean it is a new hot idea. Just a way to look at a current market in a different way. ‘losers’ in the economic market swing over to a different channel.
There will be a lot of money to be made from online publishing in many years to come, even though it will experience a consolidation and a swing to other hotter markets from time to time (it goes in cycles). It will endure.
However, poor quality DOES NOT survive a market consolidation, or a downward cycle. When online publishing cycle down, poor quality will be filtered out at a rapid rate and it will crush those in for the quick buck.
There is a period where people are fighting for the opportunity on the new channel, which means opportunities open up on the old channel.
Need a real life example? Search for:
Lehman Brothers
Enron
--- Cost of Poor Quality
"Quality is never an accident, it is always the result of an intelligent effort"
A manufacturing company had annual sales of $250 million. Its quality department calculated the total cost of repair, rework, scrap, service calls, warranty claims and write-offs from obsolete finished goods. This aggregated cost, called Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ), amounted to 20% of their annual sales. A 20% COPQ implied that during one day of each five-day workweek, the entire company spent its time and effort making scrap, which represented a loss of approximately $ 100,000 per day.
Once a quality problem has been identified, the first step is to initiate an investigation and to properly identify the root cause of the problem. After the root cause has been identified, you create a Corrective Action. In this case it can mean to fire a poor writer, invest more money in better book covers etc.
By the way, you do have metrics in your business, yes?
--- Consolidation and the consumer
Consolidation, is something very good. In fact it's like washing your dirty hands to see them become clean and nice.
It is needed. It brings health to a market and the economy. Out with the crap and make way for new and fresh. The consumer is the biggest winner in long-term. Because those with good customer support and service, a health price level and good quality will stay and strengthen their positions. A customer can trust in their seller if it stick around through a consolidation because this means the business can survive "bad times."
--- Your business (should) be your future
--- How to best prepare for a consolidation
- Know your market. Who are the leaders, where do they play and how well?
- Know your organization, strengths and weaknesses.
- Be prepared to look for new market shares.
- Know the customers in your category. What are their values? What are they asking for, and what are their emerging needs?
- Can you offer supporting products to your existing ones?
- What are the growth opportunities?
- What are the costs/benefits?
These are just some bullets to illustrate. As you can tell this is pretty straight forward and common sense. Measure what you do, act upon it, be proactive and you'll be fine.
