Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Antifragile]

Introducing the 2022 State of Crypto Report - a16z crypto

The 2022 State of Crypto report is a16z crypto's first-ever data-driven overview and analysis of web3 and crypto.

a16zcrypto.com

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[AnNvr]

Introducing the 2022 State of Crypto Report - a16z crypto

The 2022 State of Crypto report is a16z crypto's first-ever data-driven overview and analysis of web3 and crypto.

a16zcrypto.com

What a beautiful article, I was waiting to read something like that. Thank you for sharing it.



May I top up with an unpopular opinion?

This capitulation probably isn't a bad thing overall due the recent circumstances of crypto market: I have seen a circus out of control:

Scammers everywhere... rug pulls... "money-printing schemes"... crypto hipsters were duplicating like bacterias... bunch of kids in their not-even-twenties selling their "academies" on Patreon while shilling random returns, litterally toddlers talking finance and economy and sharing investment opinions with attitude behind a .jpeg of a monkey... (friendly reminder: SUBSCRIPTION MODELS AND TRAFFIC REVENUE IS THEIR BUSINESS, NOT TRADING.) , those what-so-called NFT which are nothing more than APIs... more than eight thousand tokens on the market...

all of this need a cool-off imo.

 

[nitrousflame]

Well, this didn’t age well

This is funny, but I may be laughing for a different reason than others.

 

[Ing]

The situation on 4 years ago is the same, the talks are not.

What are you doing now regarding cryptos?
Are you doing it for the tech? For the money?

I put all my coins into stable coins in November.
Part I put into fiat. With fiat I can buy and sell shorts on ETH with futures on ETH futures, Which in Germany results in 25% tax vs. 45% in the Crypto space.

It’s necessary to allways care about stable coins, as the UST example showed. I m still in BUSD. Sold my Tether, though I m sure it will survive.

A friend lost much with UST, because he didn’t care about what happened.
A man I know made a fortune by shorting LUNA, but I didn’t succeed to figure out the margin trade on Binance fast enough. So before I loose money, I didn’t do it.

Shorting ETH is quite relaxed, when you are sure of the overall bear market. But I m still not 100% sure, so my stopp losses have cost me much already.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[YanC]

What are you doing now regarding cryptos?
Are you doing it for the tech? For the money

I keep learning the tech and its fundamentals. May even get a job in the field as an opportunity came to me. Still pondering things but it sounds super interesting, it's fully remote, autonomous, yada yada. Being paid to learn for a couple years and identify opportunities sounds good to me. Never thought I would be tempted to get a job especially after building a modestly successful business !

Otherwise, I'm looking at accumulating BTC & ETH for the coming months (and maybe some smaller caps). Hoping BTC MVRV ratio dips under 1 to pull the trigger.

 

[Antifragile]

I don’t have a plan with crypto. But I own quite a bit.

There are two types of people who should be involved in this space:
1. You treat it as your business or trying to make it into your business. You researched 40+ hours a week on how to add value to projects, are active on discord and Twitter. You are subscribed to paid reports (not just free YT) and even when market goes down, you keep adjusting your vision.

2. You have a business that brings 99% of everything you need wealth wise. You have spare cash and want to learn about blockchain and stay ahead of the masses. The only way to learn is to care. To care you must buy. In web2 you didn’t have to own to participate, but in web3 you have to own.

I’m in #2 above. I own a bunch of crypto, ENS and NFTs and will continue buying and learning as when I have time and desire. This space is amazing, the tech is here to stay. We are so incredibly early that it’s like dot com era. Most projects will fail and yet it’s exciting and fun.

 

[EmotionEngine]

I don’t have a plan with crypto. But I own quite a bit.

There are two types of people who should be involved in this space:
1. You treat it as your business or trying to make it into your business. You researched 40+ hours a week on how to add value to projects, are active on discord and Twitter. You are subscribed to paid reports (not just free YT) and even when market goes down, you keep adjusting your vision.

2. You have a business that brings 99% of everything you need wealth wise. You have spare cash and want to learn about blockchain and stay ahead of the masses. The only way to learn is to care. To care you must buy. In web2 you didn’t have to own to participate, but in web3 you have to own.

I’m in #2 above. I own a bunch of crypto, ENS and NFTs and will continue buying and learning as when I have time and desire. This space is amazing, the tech is here to stay. We are so incredibly early that it’s like dot com era. Most projects will fail and yet it’s exciting and fun.

We can't compare it to the dotcom era. We entered the Information Age when the web took off. NFTs don't offer even close to the same shift for the human race. You already can't live without the internet in a modern society. 30 years from now you will be able to live without an NFT.

In my opinion the only NFTs that will be worth anything in the future are the ones connected to a game or virtual platform/metaverse where it has utility. I believe it's going to fail from an art point of view once the hype dies. We're seeing sales drop and they peaked in Fall 2021. We're also seeing now how OpenSea is just full of whales and the same people buying stuff over and over. It's not attracting large numbers of NEW customers.

Like you said, most projects will fail.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Antifragile]

30 years from now you will be able to live without an NFT.

Same was said about the internet 30 years ago. And it’s true, I can live without it but it’s hard and I don’t want to.

It’s a narrow view. I’ll try to elaborate later…

 

[MTF]

I don’t have a plan with crypto. But I own quite a bit.

There are two types of people who should be involved in this space:
1. You treat it as your business or trying to make it into your business. You researched 40+ hours a week on how to add value to projects, are active on discord and Twitter. You are subscribed to paid reports (not just free YT) and even when market goes down, you keep adjusting your vision.

2. You have a business that brings 99% of everything you need wealth wise. You have spare cash and want to learn about blockchain and stay ahead of the masses. The only way to learn is to care. To care you must buy. In web2 you didn’t have to own to participate, but in web3 you have to own.

I’m in #2 above. I own a bunch of crypto, ENS and NFTs and will continue buying and learning as when I have time and desire. This space is amazing, the tech is here to stay. We are so incredibly early that it’s like dot com era. Most projects will fail and yet it’s exciting and fun.

3. Dollar cost average maybe 5-10% of your net worth into the largest projects each week or each month (BTC and ETH, maybe a little into LINK for those a bit more into the infrastructure), hold it forever, focus on your business and get on with your life. No need to spend hours a day learning about it or worrying if it goes up or down.

 

[EmotionEngine]

Same was said about the internet 30 years ago.

I personally don't remember anyone saying that. The question of the internet in the time was "I don't want to use my credit card on it because it's not safe" and "who am I really talking to" on the other side of the AOL chat window. The internet was an easy transition like a new "digital microfilm viewer" that connected around the planet. No one argued that it shouldn't exist. People do however argue that taking an image and slapping "issue #1001" without utility as being valuable should exist.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Antifragile]

I personally don't remember anyone saying that. The question of the internet in the time was "I don't want to use my credit card on it because it's not safe" and "who am I really talking to" on the other side of the AOL chat window. The internet was an easy transition like a new "digital microfilm viewer" that connected around the planet. No one argued that it shouldn't exist. People do however argue that taking an image and slapping "issue #1001" without utility as being valuable should exist.

I am RE Developer, so I view it all from my own vantage point and here are my thoughts:


Ask five people to tell you what Web3 is, and you’ll get five different answers!

– What is Web1? It’s reading your favourite newspaper on a website. Read-only.

– Web2? That’s Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube etc. Content is no longer centrally created. It’s created by the users but ownership stays with the platform. In other words, Read-Write.

– Web3 is the Read-Write-Own concept. It is decentralizing ownership of the platform itself. Web3 (blockchain, crypto) is the Internet owned by builders and users. Blockchain technology, smart contracts and tokenization allow for individual ownership.

The reason we started referring to it as Web3 is because this new technology resides on the Internet. It is not on an isolated server within a company. It is on a network of millions of computers.

Within this technological eco-system:

– Cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are digital goods.

– Decentralized finance (DeFi) is the financial system.

– Layer 1 networks are what powers everything.

– Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) govern everything.

– Smart contracts are self-executing contracts.

Cryptocurrencies and NFTs (non-fungible tokens), a.k.a. “digital goods”​

NFTs are interesting for real estate. They represent a verifiable, portable and programmable digital property.

The “real world” version of NFT might look like this: You own a condo and proof is in your “wallet” on a blockchain (think of it as a global transaction ledger). Log into your “wallet” and proof of ownership is there.

With that you can:

– Take out a loan against your home equity, placing your NFT as a collateral.

– Grant access to your property to a tenant through programmable NFT.

– Automate bill payments for heating, utilities etc.

– Sell your property in an open market directly to another buyer with no intermediaries.

DeFi (Decentralized Finance)​

DeFi allows you to loan, borrow, trade or transact directly without requiring centralized financial institutions in the middle.

1. Instant transactions. Next time you go to the bank to wire funds, take note of how much effort it is and how many people sign off and how long it takes to deliver the money around the world. The cryptocurrency of today can wire funds within minutes. No banks. No managers. It has its downside – if you send it to the wrong address, there is also no one to help you! That’s DeFi for you and it will impact real estate in how we transact with one another.

2. Borrowing. With DeFi, you can borrow against your assets on the blockchain instantly. No need for underwriting and long approval processes.

3. Investing. Many investments under securities laws are only allowed to accredited investors. There are high-net-worth and high-income criteria to meet. A retail investor with $10,000 has fewer options (such as REITs and stocks). However, with blockchain/Web3, fractional small investments will be easy to manage.

DAO (decentralized autonomous organizations)​

Web3 user ownership also promotes financial inclusion.

DAOs make people owners and democratic voters. DAOs do not have CEOs; instead they are governed by coded consensus mechanisms. In plain English – by voting and requiring multiple signatures to proceed.

In real estate, we will see the line between renters and owners blending. Renters will be able to own part of the DAO that owns the apartment rented. Instead of competitive advantage, the new way is about cooperative advantage.

This is like co-op models that already exist, but with new technology. New technology makes voting, buying, selling, borrowing etc. easier than ever and leaves immutable proof of transaction.

Web3 and consumers​

There will be other impacts for consumers:

– You will own your online identity in a very tangible way, rather than just being a guest on several ‘free’ platforms. This means that if you choose to leave Facebook, for example, you could take your data with you.

– The value you create will transfer with you anywhere you go. Your contribution and reputation will be as good as real money that can be exchanged for goods, services or ownership.

– Instead of a centralized authority making the rules, it will be a community. There are downsides to this democratization of power. A “Jack Dorsey” can’t de-platform you, but the majority vote still can.

– Some of the big players (Facebook, Apple) and some countries (China) are fighting against this.

Another advantage of blockchain is that it offers an immutable record to buyers and sellers. All records are held on a centralized database, which updates itself through cryptography. This makes them tamper-resistant so no one can fraudulently alter or delete data.

The use of blockchain in the real estate industry is still in its infancy, but it’s clear that it has a lot of potential.

This could mean that in the future, buying and selling property will become faster, cheaper and more secure. Rent-to-own models may become automated through DAOs. Automation and peer-to-peer transactions can reduce the costs of renting and ownership.

 

[EmotionEngine]

Good points and I knew some of them. I own crypto and NFTs and still disagree with how the blockchain will work with some of them.

I do like this idea:
– You will own your online identity in a very tangible way, rather than just being a guest on several ‘free’ platforms. This means that if you choose to leave Facebook, for example, you could take your data with you.

 

[Antifragile]

still disagree with how the blockchain will work with some of them.

Predicting the future is impossible, not hard. So I know I’m wrong. It’s like asking me back in 1995 to predict Twitter or YouTube. I accept that my ideas (not even mine, probably 99% borrowed from something I read in a books white paper or an article) are going to be mostly wrong. The purpose isn’t to be right specifically, it is to be right generally. I expect blockchain (web3, whatever you want to call it) to be a massive part of our lives in 30 years. Heck, it’ll be way sooner than that.

That said; what specifically do you disagree with? And what do you predict for the future?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Antifragile]

Just saw this at the mall haha

 

[Speculatooor]

View attachment 43610Just saw this at the mall haha

How to get robbed 101

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Woah look at that, unelected power-hungry bureaucrats are speaking out against crpyto because "it's not backed by anything" -- lol, as if your paper currency which is unmercifully printed out of thin air is backed by anything?

Crypto savaged at Davos by top officials: Here's who said what

Financial officials described cryptocurrencies as unreliable and worthless, with one even comparing them to pyramid schemes.

fortune.com

These people disgust me.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I am RE Developer, so I view it all from my own vantage point and here are my thoughts:


Ask five people to tell you what Web3 is, and you’ll get five different answers!

– What is Web1? It’s reading your favourite newspaper on a website. Read-only.

– Web2? That’s Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube etc. Content is no longer centrally created. It’s created by the users but ownership stays with the platform. In other words, Read-Write.

– Web3 is the Read-Write-Own concept. It is decentralizing ownership of the platform itself. Web3 (blockchain, crypto) is the Internet owned by builders and users. Blockchain technology, smart contracts and tokenization allow for individual ownership.

The reason we started referring to it as Web3 is because this new technology resides on the Internet. It is not on an isolated server within a company. It is on a network of millions of computers.

Within this technological eco-system:

– Cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are digital goods.

– Decentralized finance (DeFi) is the financial system.

– Layer 1 networks are what powers everything.

– Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) govern everything.

– Smart contracts are self-executing contracts.

Cryptocurrencies and NFTs (non-fungible tokens), a.k.a. “digital goods”​

NFTs are interesting for real estate. They represent a verifiable, portable and programmable digital property.

The “real world” version of NFT might look like this: You own a condo and proof is in your “wallet” on a blockchain (think of it as a global transaction ledger). Log into your “wallet” and proof of ownership is there.

With that you can:

– Take out a loan against your home equity, placing your NFT as a collateral.

– Grant access to your property to a tenant through programmable NFT.

– Automate bill payments for heating, utilities etc.

– Sell your property in an open market directly to another buyer with no intermediaries.

DeFi (Decentralized Finance)​

DeFi allows you to loan, borrow, trade or transact directly without requiring centralized financial institutions in the middle.

1. Instant transactions. Next time you go to the bank to wire funds, take note of how much effort it is and how many people sign off and how long it takes to deliver the money around the world. The cryptocurrency of today can wire funds within minutes. No banks. No managers. It has its downside – if you send it to the wrong address, there is also no one to help you! That’s DeFi for you and it will impact real estate in how we transact with one another.

2. Borrowing. With DeFi, you can borrow against your assets on the blockchain instantly. No need for underwriting and long approval processes.

3. Investing. Many investments under securities laws are only allowed to accredited investors. There are high-net-worth and high-income criteria to meet. A retail investor with $10,000 has fewer options (such as REITs and stocks). However, with blockchain/Web3, fractional small investments will be easy to manage.

DAO (decentralized autonomous organizations)​

Web3 user ownership also promotes financial inclusion.

DAOs make people owners and democratic voters. DAOs do not have CEOs; instead they are governed by coded consensus mechanisms. In plain English – by voting and requiring multiple signatures to proceed.

In real estate, we will see the line between renters and owners blending. Renters will be able to own part of the DAO that owns the apartment rented. Instead of competitive advantage, the new way is about cooperative advantage.

This is like co-op models that already exist, but with new technology. New technology makes voting, buying, selling, borrowing etc. easier than ever and leaves immutable proof of transaction.

Web3 and consumers​

There will be other impacts for consumers:

– You will own your online identity in a very tangible way, rather than just being a guest on several ‘free’ platforms. This means that if you choose to leave Facebook, for example, you could take your data with you.

– The value you create will transfer with you anywhere you go. Your contribution and reputation will be as good as real money that can be exchanged for goods, services or ownership.

– Instead of a centralized authority making the rules, it will be a community. There are downsides to this democratization of power. A “Jack Dorsey” can’t de-platform you, but the majority vote still can.

– Some of the big players (Facebook, Apple) and some countries (China) are fighting against this.

Another advantage of blockchain is that it offers an immutable record to buyers and sellers. All records are held on a centralized database, which updates itself through cryptography. This makes them tamper-resistant so no one can fraudulently alter or delete data.

The use of blockchain in the real estate industry is still in its infancy, but it’s clear that it has a lot of potential.

This could mean that in the future, buying and selling property will become faster, cheaper and more secure. Rent-to-own models may become automated through DAOs. Automation and peer-to-peer transactions can reduce the costs of renting and ownership.

I really love the idea of this and see massive potential for it (positive potential) but being somewhat more conservative as always, I also see the massive potential downside. We could find out that what we thought was decentralized was not really decentralized, or what we thought was stable was not really stable (like stablecoins).

So your NFT with the deed of your condo - is it really safe, is it hackable, is it yours? Can some arbitrary 3rd party pull the plug on it?

Big questions to be answered. But HUGE potential for the world.

--
Didn't mean to hijack. I agree about Davos. Crazy how hypocritical that is of them, @MJ DeMarco

 

[Antifragile]

I really love the idea of this and see massive potential for it (positive potential) but being somewhat more conservative as always, I also see the massive potential downside. We could find out that what we thought was decentralized was not really decentralized, or what we thought was stable was not really stable (like stablecoins).

So your NFT with the deed of your condo - is it really safe, is it hackable, is it yours? Can some arbitrary 3rd party pull the plug on it?

Big questions to be answered. But HUGE potential for the world.

--
Didn't mean to hijack. I agree about Davos. Crazy how hypocritical that is of them, @MJ DeMarco

My view is simple: nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems at first.

 

[Speculatooor]

Woah look at that, unelected power-hungry bureaucrats are speaking out against crpyto because "it's not backed by anything" -- lol, as if your paper currency which is unmercifully printed out of thin air is backed by anything?

Crypto savaged at Davos by top officials: Here's who said what

Financial officials described cryptocurrencies as unreliable and worthless, with one even comparing them to pyramid schemes.

fortune.com

These people disgust me.

It's such a strange argument. It doesn't need to be backed by something with monetary qualities, because it already has those qualities.

It's like saying gold is not backed by anything.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[c4n]

The seedphrase is in my mind and the coins are on the blockchain. How others handle their ownership doesn't affect the whole. People lose physical wallets all the time with money in them. Bitcoin by nature is almost otherworldly and metaphysical... I can own it in my head. Can you do that with gold?

If the seedphrase is only in your head, what happens to your coins if you die tomorrow? Or have head trauma and loose memory?

I hope it doesn't, but that happens to people every day.

Not trying to be a smarta**, I am seriously wondering how you solved that?

 

[Matt Sun]

Is this a generational thing ? Peter Thiel mentioned "gerontocracy" vs "youth" as the current situation.

Christine Lagarde’s Son Is a Crypto Investor Despite Her Anti-Bitcoin Stance​

Christine Lagarde's Son Is a Crypto Investor Despite Her Anti-Bitcoin Stance

The son of the highly vocal crypto critic has entered the cryptocurrency market, despite her concerns.

cryptopotato.com

 

[EVMaso]

If the seedphrase is only in your head, what happens to your coins if you die tomorrow? Or have head trauma and loose memory?

I hope it doesn't, but that happens to people every day.

Not trying to be a smarta**, I am seriously wondering how you solved that?

If your hodlings are significant, you can (should) probably hire a lawyer to deal with estate planning. I'm certain that the issue of transferring crypto keys upon death has come up before and there are people who have experience with these things.

For me I've had the idea that I would give only 3-4 words of my seed phrase to several trusted family members/friends, with some overlap, and only in the confirmed unfortunate event of my demise they would all have to get together to combine the keywords and get the goods. But I haven't really thought this one out yet, just an idea.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Dr5x]

• Gold can be confiscated from you as its just an asset. No one can take physically take Bitcoin from you since it's on a network run by a protocol. Try getting all the nodes on the planet. Impossible.

I would not expect them to confiscate gold, but you never know. They have done it before in a currency crises. This is why I recommend storing physical gold in Switzerland. Check out Matterhorn asset management, or GoldSilver.com for amounts less than $400k

• Bitcoin is more practical than gold to give in large fractionalized quantities to the entire planet. (Try that with gold bars)

This is precisely why the U.S. dollar was created, as a note that represents gold to facilitate easier trade. It was rugpulled in 1971 and we have been on paper ever since. We don't have the option of another Paul Volcker to help us tame inflation this time. You can't raise rates to 15% when you have $30TN of national debt. They will try their best with reasonable rate increases and reducing the balance sheet, but I believe that large inflation is here to stay for a while.

This is extremely bullish for precious metals over the next 5-10 years.

• Large quantities of gold requires vault and security.

Bitcoin wallets can easily be lost or the storage device could fail. I have heard countless stories of this. With amounts $500k+ it would be smart to keep it in a vault with security.

A great option for holding Gold and Silver investments are the PSLV and PHYS ETFs. They also will save you on taxes, as they are taxed at the 20% capital gains rate. Stay away from SLV and GLD. These COMEX ETFs are not backed and are heavily used for price suppression. This manipulation keeps the dollar strong.

• New gold is being found and mined every year. BBC says gold production totalled 3,531 tonnes in 2019. It's like a commodity. Bitcoin has a limited supply, true scarcity. Only 21 million tokens will ever be minted. Good luck inflating that, the network nodes across the planet will never agree.

This is true, but Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It is simply bought with the hopes that the value will increase. That is 98% of why it is used. It is also used for international exchange and illegal activity. I think Bitcoin is a good buy at $500-$1000, but I wouldn't touch it until then.

• Over other coins, it doesn't have a foundation (ex. Ethereum) that mucks with the protocol. Bitcoin is the same when it came out and Satoshi's coins have never moved.

Bitcoin and ETH are probably the only coins I would ever touch, and even then that is only if they were to get down to 1-2% of the ATH. Every other coin I have seen is a shitcoin with its own flavor, created by people trying to get rich, pumped up by people trying to get rich, and bag held by people expecting this to be their winning lottery ticket. How does any of this add value to society?

I was in your camp for a long time Matt33 but changed my view. The arguments for a digital store of value are quite strong, especially in light with the (real) adoption/ network growth of BTC. Is it worth $30k? No clue - but quite frankly I don't really care. I treat it as a long term bet (and to some degree hedge, however not against inflation!). If adoption slows down/ BTC fails, I lose a very small part of my NW. If adoption continues to thrive, it's hard to imagine that prices will decline. Also, if there is a real crisis (think UA) and real assets become worthless, digital assets might play a very helpful role. Yes - metals have traditionally done well but they have serious flaws - I recommend literature around Argentina or Venezuela to get a perspective. Not trying to scare anyone - just food for thougt

 

[Matt33]

Hi Dr,

I was in your camp for a long time Matt33 but changed my view. The arguments for a digital store of value are quite strong, especially in light with the (real) adoption/ network growth of BTC. Is it worth $30k? No clue - but quite frankly I don't really care. I treat it as a long term bet (and to some degree hedge, however not against inflation!). If adoption slows down/ BTC fails, I lose a very small part of my NW. If adoption continues to thrive, it's hard to imagine that prices will decline. Also, if there is a real crisis (think UA) and real assets become worthless, digital assets might play a very helpful role. Yes - metals have traditionally done well but they have serious flaws - I recommend literature around Argentina or Venezuela to get a perspective. Not trying to scare anyone - just food for thougt

Thank you for the post. I agree with you on some parts. For me, a buy signal would be a price of $3,000 per Bitcoin. I would put a small amount of my portfolio into BTC at this price. Less than $50k.

As far as Gold, I highly recommend keeping your Gold in Switzerland. That is what I do. The Government will do what they need to in a currency crises. I do not think it would happen, but it doesn't hurt to keep your Gold in Switzerland. The storage costs are extremely reasonable, and a large % of Gold bullion comes from Switzerland. You save on a lot of costs.


Edit:

Forgot to add, the price of Gold today is $1850. At 30% inflation since March 2020, this puts today's Gold price at $1500. I find this to be a very reasonable price.

 

[Ing]

Seedphrase: my thoughts:
If you have a fullfilled, good life, you should have come up to a man or wo an, whom you trust as bad, that he can know your seed prases and you re sure, he does the same with it as you would!
I have 3 people I trust that much. Do you have them?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[socaldude]

These people disgust me.

You know what I find interesting? The international banking system ran by sycophantic grunts has never had an issue with whistleblowers. Gee, I wonder why?

 

[Kevin88660]

If there is any fundamental law about crypto, I think Chandeller Guo has said it well:” Every coin price follows the same trajectory, a pump followed by a dump.”

Another rule about investing and trading in general that applies in crypto is that good investment styles on hindsight are ones that match the direction of the macro trend. There are people who buy and hold cryptos and made fortunes. I know a friend who buy and hold leveraged etf and made fortunes. The similarities is the timing. They both grabbed the 2020 march bottom and had the guts to hold it, riding the market cycle of leveraging up from a deleveraged bottom.

The same people who made money riding the wave lost significant of their profits back trying to do it again in late 2021 and 2022. Now we know interest rate hikes are going to come harder to compensate for the earlier Fed’s inaction, exacerbated by inflationary pressure from Ukraine conflict and China’s zero covid policy that causes a global manufacturing supply crunch.

So what is the market state for the next 12-18 month? I think if you get it right, money will be made.

It is unlikely that we are going to have bull market. Post 2009 march and 2020 march were qe fueled from a deflationary bottom. 2017 we had policy incentivized bull market from Trump tax cut, that caused the equity rally and excess liquidity spilling over into the crypto market. Unlikely that these will happen in near future.

There is no need to worry about a black swan coming either, in my opinion. Great deflation happens when people least expects it. In 2007 the world was enjoying the economic boom. In 2019 year end Trump and somewhat reached a trade war ceasefire agreement with China, and market was expecting that worst is over.

And statistically speaking the likelihood of extreme volatility event happening back to back is fairly low. People don’t know why but they found it in the market data history. You don’t find financial crisis happening back to back. It has something resembling poisson distribution in nature. Exact cause is unknown. 2020 March melt down is not that far away.

That leaves us with the most reasonable guess that is we probably find ourselves in a moderately choppy market that is now going up but not going to hell either. 2015 was the rate hike fear that corrected the risk assets. 2018 and 2019 were the market turbulence caused by trade war. So going forward 2022-2023 we probably are witnessing a combined pressure Of the two (both monetary and geopolitical).

In bull market the best strategy is buy and hold. In other other market state (even in bear market too)the best strategy is buy the dip for short term profit, or what the quants call it “long only mean reversion trades”.

We know that BTC and ETH are here to stay. BTC are full of institutional bag holders at 30k price and Ethereum transactions settlement cumulatively just passed the trillion dollar mark.

Altcoins are going to have a tough times in my opinion. It used to be that altcoin movements are simply bitcoin movement with larger standard deviation. Not anymore. When BTC tank all alt coins tank. When BTC rises, some alt rise in price and many more alts do not move or even fall. So BTC maximalism will be practically right, in the sense I always believe that there will be always 100x alt rising from the ash, the ev of spotting them is just too low compared to the ev of buying btc and eth, unless you have some magically power of both spotting the right narrative and right project and entering at the right time.

Read the charts, buy the dip for BTC and ETH. Cash out for profits. Rinse and repeat. Keep things stupid and simple for the next 12-18 months. Keep this as the core strategy. That’s my two cents.

 

[ijack]

Right now is a perfect time to start you crypto route if you haven't started yet. Guys, does anyone of you has their own exchange? If yes, do you know anything about lithuania crypto license? Is the process as smooth as promised?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Ing]

Right now is a perfect time to start you crypto route if you haven't started yet

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0WLqT756FzE

 

[EmotionEngine]

Right now is a perfect time to start you crypto route if you haven't started yet

I don't believe so. This may not be the floor, it may be the most foolish time. Bitcoin could be at 16k tomorrow and if you bought today you'd lose a ton of money.

Anyhow, trying to time the market is definitely not Fastlane. MJ warned in Unscripted as well.

(Not financial advice, but opinions)