Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[LPPC]

I wish I knew...

From what I am reading, it looks like there are still many regulatory challenges. If the demand is there but can't be met because of SEC, who knows? My thinking is like this, rules:
#1 - survive the downs (never leverage, be prepared to be wrong!)
#2 - most of the "crypto" portfolio into BTC/ETH because of market dominance
#3 - DYOR for anything L1, L2 Alts, DeDi, DAOs and only when you feel like you get the big value prop, invest. Otherwise be on guard for FOMO.

And have fun with the little stuff, like NFTs, chat with people in the space, learn ...


edit: anecdotally, I see more of my normie friends use their tax sheltered (Canadian thing - RRSPs) to invest in Bitcoin ETFs. One took his entire stock portfolio, liquidated and moved to BTC. I don't have that kind of conviction or balls, but it's interesting to see.

I'm just more afraid of the macro economy. It's ridiculous that BTC is not being treated as an inflation hedge if we look at how the market reacts to the FED's announcements.

Is it this time different and we won't see a big crash? Is 40k the bottom for the coming years? Very hard to guess.

 

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[Antifragile]

I'm just more afraid of the macro economy. It's ridiculous that BTC is not being treated as an inflation hedge if we look at how the market reacts to the FED's announcements.

Is it this time different and we won't see a big crash? Is 40k the bottom for the coming years? Very hard to guess.

No one knows. And anyone telling you otherwise is lying or stupid.

That’s why prepare to be wrong. Can you be wrong and HODL for 3 years if you had to? That’s how I make my decisions.

 

[Codon]

El Salvador Has Lost $12M on Its Bitcoin Investment | CoinMarketCap

In cash terms, El Salvador's Bitcoin buys have cost $73.2 million — but at the time of writing, this BTC is worth a mere $60.7 million.

coinmarketcap.com

Unless they sold, they didn't lose anything.

 

[AnNvr]

I really don't know how much upside we have from here. Most of the gains have been made if you think about the fact that some major alts like matic have gone 100x since 2020.

We need a lot of money coming in to reach 100k for bitcoin. It's possible, but we would need big institutions.

What do you think?

Agree.

Yes, it's a store value and it'll grow overtime but the general opinion seems leaving behind a key factor.
BTC is an old tech, with no real utility and high power consumption. Slow and expensive in transactions compared to new digital assets already tested by major banks. At the end of the run, utility and adoption by major institution will be the game changer for few new digital assets, especially the ones approved by ISO Technical Committee.

Also, it's already gone up 65535.07% since its all time low 9 years ago. Surely it'll go up again, but having a push up to 100k anytime soon it's unrealistic, technically talking.

 

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[pat9000]

To me, the best feature of Crypto over our current banking system is the 24/7 availability.

Banks only work 8 hours a day Mon-Fri and are off for Holidays. This makes it difficult to get some transactions completed properly.

Crypto gives the luxury of making transactions 24/7 and that comes in handy when in a bind.

Hopefully this new wave of innovation makes companies react. Similarly to how RobinHood made waves by cutting out trading commissions.

 

[MoneyDoc]

To me, the best feature of Crypto over our current banking system is the 24/7 availability.

Banks only work 8 hours a day Mon-Fri and are off for Holidays. This makes it difficult to get some transactions completed properly.

Crypto gives the luxury of making transactions 24/7 and that comes in handy when in a bind.

Hopefully this new wave of innovation makes companies react. Similarly to how RobinHood made waves by cutting out trading commissions.

Keep in mind, a CBDC eliminates this issue...

Sometimes we have to be careful what we wish for

I'll never forget what Powell said last year (I hope he doesn't hold this view anymore): "If we have a CBDC, there is no need for cryptocurrencies".

 

[MitchC]

Keep in mind, a CBDC eliminates this issue...

Sometimes we have to be careful what we wish for

I'll never forget what Powell said last year (I hope he doesn't hold this view anymore): "If we have a CBDC, there is no need for cryptocurrencies".

Exactly right.

We are basically building our own prison between this and the metaverse.

 

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[GPM]

Don't forget crypto doesn't care about borders. Send it anywhere you want. The world is not USA

 

[EVMaso]

What will happen when more do this ? El Salvador was just the beginning

Rio de Janeiro to buy Bitcoin as a store of value

The Mayor of Rio de Janeiro – Eduardo Paes – has announced the city will buy Bitcoin as a store of value.

ca.movies.yahoo.com

Don't forget our friends in Tonga!

Tonga to copy El Salvador’s bill making Bitcoin legal tender, says former MP

Bitcoin Bull Lord Fusitu’a set the wheels in motion for his country Tonga to follow El Salvador’s lead.

cointelegraph.com

 

[AnNvr]

Keep in mind, a CBDC eliminates this issue...

Sometimes we have to be careful what we wish for

I'll never forget what Powell said last year (I hope he doesn't hold this view anymore): "If we have a CBDC, there is no need for cryptocurrencies".

ECB President Christine Lagarde already announced in the ecb blog they are working on design a CBDC for Europe by 2025.

It's happening, regardless what we do on the market. My doubt is if we'll be able to have a dual dimension made out of CBDC baked by the central banks and regulated by governments, and DeFi tools to detach our finances from banks and institution. What's your opinion?

 

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[hisamats]

Don't forget our friends in Tonga!

Tonga to copy El Salvador’s bill making Bitcoin legal tender, says former MP

Bitcoin Bull Lord Fusitu’a set the wheels in motion for his country Tonga to follow El Salvador’s lead.

cointelegraph.com

What’s the incentive for El S and Tonga to do this?

 

[MTF]

What’s the incentive for El S and Tonga to do this?

Safety (as a reserve currency), status (as a forward-thinking place), possibly a way for the country to get richer and rely on a superior store of value. They know their currencies suck and people don't trust them so BTC may actually help the economy grow.

 

[Matt Sun]

This argument that bitcoin is old and uses too much energy really is very weak. Since bitcoin wasn't created to be better than altcoins but to be better than our current system that is much more energy costly since it destroys lifes and businesses through inflation and currency debasement. I was watching a video of Jordan Peterson and he sum it up in a very nice way, he said that you have to adjust bitcoin's consumption of energy with the efficiency that embracing bitcoin brings to an economic system. This extra efficiency makes the energy argument a no brainer. With btc you have no stealing via inflation and also you don't have to go around invading Irak or Libia when people sell oil accepting the wrong token. It's a neutral means of exchange that even enemies can use. In the current system USA can sanction Russia or whoever so conflicts are kind of inherent when the means of exchange is not neutral.

It's interesting to see what will happen to El Salvador or other places that embrace bitcoin, according to this logic their economies should flourish in the coming years.



I'm sort of bitcoin maxi since I like altcoins to make money but it's still not clear that they are really decentralized since many depend on amazon web services, or have had transactions reversed like ethereum with the famous DAO hack. Or have CEOs in Switzerland while bitcoin has no CEO.

 

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[hisamats]

Curious what this will lead to. Kind of mind boggling for me at this point to consider the implications. Apparently, in El Salvador, things don’t run as smooth yet as it says on the cover, but thats probably naive to assume

 

[Ing]

I read, that Iran plans to make payments per BTC legal. Don’t remember, where, but was the last 3 days.
But I thought, Iran is one of the biggest miner states. I don’t get that

 

[Fox]

Do you think people are more/less likely to pay for something with crypto when prices are high/low?

Is there any data out there on when people most use crypto for transactions? (rather than trading/storing money)

 

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[TinyTim]

I don't think this mini bear market is over just yet. I don't think it will be as long as in 2018, but I can see this slow bleed continuing into at least spring.

 

[mguerra]

I wonder where @James Fake are now...

I really liked his insights and predictions.

 

[Antifragile]

I don't think this mini bear market is over just yet. I don't think it will be as long as in 2018, but I can see this slow bleed continuing into at least spring.

I keep hearing the same thing in real estate as in crypto. Maybe it's helpful to some of you. The saying goes "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market".

Survive the bear market and you'll be happy. Assuming we are firmly in a bear market now. Which is not clear and will not be until after it's over. Economists have called correctly the last 8 out of 3 recessions.

 

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[TinyTim]

I keep hearing the same thing in real estate as in crypto. Maybe it's helpful to some of you. The saying goes "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market".

Survive the bear market and you'll be happy. Assuming we are firmly in a bear market now. Which is not clear and will not be until after it's over. Economists have called correctly the last 8 out of 3 recessions.

Hey, just making a prediction and letting people know my current thoughts, as I've been bearish since around 60k. Not saying people should sell their holdings here or anything.

In regards to the "time in the market" quote - well, it works for many people, especially during bull runs, but it depends on many factors, including the specific coin and what the holder needs. The "just hodl" mentality won't work for everyone and every asset. Staying in a shaky market after your (not you Antifragile) shitcoin has done 400x may not be the best tactic.

 

[pat9000]

The fact that BTC dominance is still below 40% proves to me that people still expect alt coins to rally. There isn't a mass consolidation into BTC like previous bear markets. Then again, past performance doesn't indicate future results.

 

[Mainstream7]

New financial paradigm is coming. Jack Dorsey will lead the transition of crypto payments into the mainstream.
Spot sellers gone. Forced sellers are also gone.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1VfTT-jfmY&ab_channel=AnthonyPompliano

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4Pg2pTlxkU

 

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[TinyTim]

Looks like we are at a major decision point with BTC now. If this breakout sustains, then I see no reason why we don't hit 60k rather quickly. The danger is equities nuking and dragging BTC down with it (28-30k).

Edit: Stonks dumping hard

 

[Vasili27]

Do you think people are more/less likely to pay for something with crypto when prices are high/low?

Is there any data out there on when people most use crypto for transactions? (rather than trading/storing money)

most people use it for trading/investing. ive heard were people pay with crypto but only in very big transactions. nothing small

 

[MTF]

I don't really like any of these ideas (some are downright stupid like the "crypto USB" thing lol) but maybe someone will find it useful:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1VGAZGnmM

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Don't forget our friends in Tonga!

Sounds like a lot of these small countries are adopting crypto, common theme is they have currency volatility and potential hyperinflation.

If I lived in Argentina where the government likes to routinely confiscate wealth from their citizens and debases currency in through mega inflation, bitcoin (despite its volatility) is a 1000% better store of value.

 

[GPM]

Sounds like a lot of these small countries are adopting crypto, common theme is they have currency volatility and potential hyperinflation.

If I lived in Argentina where the government likes to routinely confiscate wealth from their citizens and debases currency in through mega inflation, bitcoin (despite its volatility) is a 1000% better store of value.

You can also send it out of the country in like 5 seconds notice if need be and no one can stop you

 

[MTF]

You can also send it out of the country in like 5 seconds notice if need be and no one can stop you

And since you can store your private keys in your brain, you can cross the border with nobody knowing and nobody confiscating your wealth. This alone makes crypto revolutionary.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Yes, the more I like it and see it as an awesome disrupter and equalizer to the assholes in charge of monetary banking, the more I wonder until it all is made illegal, equivalent to the possession of child p0rn. It won't matter if you have $10M in bitcoin on your Nano Ledger when you're doing life in Leavenworth with no parole.

In other words, I'm starting to like crypto so much because of its decentralization nature and distributive ownership that it feels like the probabilities for banishment continue to rise.

I hope not, but anything that threatens power ultimately is marginalized or worse, criminalized.

The more I learn of the benefits and the threats it poses to powerful institutions, the more it seems likely.

 

[SteveBatt]

Yes, the more I like it and see it as an awesome disrupter and equalizer to the assholes in charge of monetary banking, the more I wonder until it all is made illegal, equivalent to the possession of child p0rn. It won't matter if you have $10M in bitcoin on your Nano Ledger when you're doing life in Leavenworth with no parole.

In other words, I'm starting to like crypto so much because of its decentralization nature and distributive ownership that it feels like the probabilities for banishment continue to rise.

I hope not, but anything that threatens power ultimately is marginalized or worse, criminalized.

The more I learn of the benefits and the threats it poses to powerful institutions, the more it seems likely.

It will be classed as smuggling next and the owners pirates