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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Anything related to bitcoin, crypto, blockchain

YanC

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Anyone bullish on Solana as a more efficient replacement for ETH?
I wouldn't say a replacement and not only Solana (rather SoLunAvax as crypto twitter says), the future looks multichain to me. Quite new to that stuff so I don't know WTF I'm talking about though.

What I can say as a beginner commiting only a small amount of money for now, is that using ETH feels like you're giving up an arm or a leg every time you do anything. Those who were super early and / or have large quantities may not care, but for newcomers and future average users, it's a different story IMO.
 
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MTF

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I wouldn't say a replacement and not only Solana (rather SoLunAvax as crypto twitter says), the future looks multichain to me. Quite new to that stuff so I don't know WTF I'm talking about though.

What I can say as a beginner commiting only a small amount of money for now, is that using ETH feels like you're giving up an arm or a leg every time you do anything. Those who were super early and / or have large quantities may not care, but for newcomers and future average users, it's a different story IMO.

My uneducated opinion is that once Ethereum solves its problems (and it'll happen, don't bet against the geniuses), these other solutions, while probably won't go to zero, won't be used by those who want most liquidity, safety, and reputation. Unless they offer something completely different (speed alone isn't that valuable IMO) and don't compete with Ethereum, I don't see them as a safe bet.

Most of that stuff relies on Ethereum anyway so why not get direct exposure to the #1 platform?

This, plus Lindy effect.
 

YanC

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My uneducated opinion is that once Ethereum solves its problems (and it'll happen, don't bet against the geniuses), these other solutions, while probably won't go to zero, won't be used by those who want most liquidity, safety, and reputation. Unless they offer something completely different (speed alone isn't that valuable IMO) and don't compete with Ethereum, I don't see them as a safe bet.

Most of that stuff relies on Ethereum anyway so why not get direct exposure to the #1 platform?

This, plus Lindy effect.
Yes, I pretty much agree and have both SOL and ETH in my portfolio.
 

TinyTim

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The thing with SOL and other competing L1s is that it's all about speed and low fees.

However, with Loopring and other L2s (plus sharding), Eth transactions will soon only be cents.

So, would you rather use a decentralized Ethereum network via L2, or a more centralized Solana network?

I'm not saying these other L1s won't be successful - I just don't buy the "Ethereum killer" arguments.
 
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SharpeningBlade

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Not too sure about Solana, but they just had a DDoS attack on the network last month. So with any new chain you have risk. All of these concepts like Proof of Stake, Proof of History, etc., are simply untested experiments. Proof of Work is tried and tested. Bitcoin has 12+ years of history and has never been hacked except for maybe 1 or 2 exploits that were fixed very early on in the project.

Right now Solana has almost double the market cap of Polkadot. Polkadot development is moving along very nice and this year could be a big year for it. A 20x return from DOT right now puts the market cap at a little over half a trillion, slightly more than eth at the moment. The team behind DOT is super low key and has good crypto-anarchist principles.

If we look at percentage of global economy, vs the crypto market, you have a lot of numbers from 40 Trillion to 400 Trillion - for illustration let's just settle around $93T number by the IMF in 2021.

With that number, the current crypto market is about 2-3% of the global economy. As nation states begin to dissolve and the value of their currencies become debased, more people will put their money into the crypto market as a safe haven. By the end of the decade we may have a case where the total crypto market cap has at least tripled.

The era of the national currency has had a good run.

The cities and countries of the future will compete with each other based on quality of life benefits, tax benefits, infrastructure, etc. They will not so much seek to collect taxes as to attract the wealthy through various incentives.

You can already see El Salvador doing this, as well as some red leaning states in the US, and a couple countries in Europe.

As always, caution is always good. I expect that there will be many wallet hacks and exploits and scams and probably substantial corrections. A solar flare for instance would temporarily wipe out the crypto market and but probably create an insane buying opportunity.
 
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Timmy C

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My uneducated opinion is that once Ethereum solves its problems (and it'll happen, don't bet against the geniuses), these other solutions, while probably won't go to zero, won't be used by those who want most liquidity, safety, and reputation. Unless they offer something completely different (speed alone isn't that valuable IMO) and don't compete with Ethereum, I don't see them as a safe bet.

Most of that stuff relies on Ethereum anyway so why not get direct exposure to the #1 platform?

This, plus Lindy effect.

I agree with you mate, all other ETH "killers" I will trim and sell most of them, but I never go to zero on a project anymore to prevent max regret year's later lol.

I can't see any of them taking out ETH.
 

Antifragile

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msufan

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What's causing the puke this time around? Lack of liquidity? What did I miss?
Sometimes it just is what it is, but I guess you could argue it goes along with the Fed talking of tightening up a bit (which brought stocks down a bit as well this afternoon).
 

MJ DeMarco

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What's causing the puke this time around? Lack of liquidity? What did I miss?

Guessing, the market's downward action due to higher rates alluded.

In times that feel stressed, money flows into safe havens, and based on the market's action today, it doesn't see crypto as a safe haven. When times are buoyant, speculative assets like crypto get hit on the ask. Not saying I agree, but money flows don't tend to lie...
 
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Timmy C

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People selling for taxes, leverage traders getting liquidates, rates potential increase.

Could be any number of things.

Just ride the waves fam.
 
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MoneyDoc

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What's causing the puke this time around? Lack of liquidity? What did I miss?
My opinion?

Overeaction to FED minutes for equities. Everything in the minutes was known beforehand except for the tightening of the balance sheet that sits at $9T which is still a "thought" (with respect to timing). After todays reaction, I doubt the FED moves forward with that as it's simply not needed right now. But again, that's my guess, I don't know how they process these thoughts.

Also, BTC has been in a textbook WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION. See attached. $40-$42k is a HEAVY demand zone which is why it bounced right off mid $42k.

The only thing of concern is the fast rising yields.. but, I don't know if it's a natural rise or not. Yields have been used in the past to "scare" Powell. Will be interesting how the macro unfolds. I personally was expecting a major dip across all equities/crypto around March followed by a V bottom recovery. Guess that dip came early? Now I kinda wanna stay long for March as everyone is expecting a "crash" from the 25 bps rate hike.

Nothing macro for me suggests bearish. If inflation was under 5%, yes, I would switch bearish with this "hawkish" outlook from the fed. To be honest though, I got more of a dovish stance from reading the minutes. Not sure why.
Screen Shot 2022-01-04 at 7.26.45 PM.pngScreen Shot 2022-01-04 at 12.37.13 PM.png
 
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Timmy C

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History repeats itself time and time again with crypto, and when retail and market sentiment is at its lowest, those have been the times to buy and every single time.


The fear and greed index is at 15, the lowest its been since July last year.

I am so numb to any price drops in crypto, it happens so often, it comes with the territory.
 
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MoneyDoc

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History repeats itself time and time again with crypto, and when retail and market sentiment is at its lowest, those have been the times to buy and every single time.


The fear and greed index is at 15, the lowest its been since July last year.

I am so numb to any price drops in crypto, it happens so often, it comes with the territory.
Don’t forget this is a different macro period… but I do still hold onto to my bullish macro position.
 

Antifragile

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am so numb to any price drops in crypto, it happens so often

I’m having a hard time admitting to myself that I’m now numb too. I feel like I should care, yet nothing. Not even an emotion. Maybe it’s because I don’t use debt/leverage for this. I can imagine some ppl getting stressed if their loans are getting cash calls to keep the margin account going.

Rule 1 in crypto - don’t use leverage, it’s too volatile at this time.
 

Antifragile

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GM WAGMI

time for me to buy, I like these prices

Not timing the bottom, just trying to keep up with my strategy of buying on dips. "Be greedy when others are fearful". :)
 
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Ing

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I compared the 21 with the 17 bullrun countless times and in countless charts.
The repetition was so identical in times, that I expect the bear to be the same.
I expect the marketcap lowering until a low point in Oktober 2022.

ETH: I expect 2.0 to come end of 2022 or later. What will it bring regarding the chart? I m not sure. It will equal ETH with a lot of other coins.
 
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Antifragile

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Antifragile, what are you planning on buying mostly?
I got BTC today and a little ETH.

Lately I accumulated too much ETH for my own % splits, so I have to think twice now. Probably will only add BTC going forward.

LYXe didn't dump big, so I didn't add any, but am on the lookout. It seems at $16 it's a cheap buy. I've been on a few "spaces" chats on Twitter, one with Fabian and understand his "slow and steady" approach better now. Bullish on this one.
 

robjohn

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That sounds like a good plan. Similar to mine. I've also been buying BTC, because my avg on that one is a little high.
I'll also buy some ETH.

I'm maxxed out on my Lukso budget, unless it goes down to $10 again, I'll reconsider buying more. Interesting on the slow and steady approach!
 

Antifragile

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That sounds like a good plan. Similar to mine. I've also been buying BTC, because my avg on that one is a little high.
I'll also buy some ETH.

I'm maxxed out on my Lukso budget, unless it goes down to $10 again, I'll reconsider buying more. Interesting on the slow and steady approach!

Ha! We are doing very similar buys. Either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ. Time will tell.

Yes, my % allocation to LYXe is at max right now, but if it dips below $15 and the closer it gets to $10, the more I'll buy. Very happy with BTC this morning.
 
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robjohn

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Ha! We are doing very similar buys. Either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ. Time will tell.

Yes, my % allocation to LYXe is at max right now, but if it dips below $15 and the closer it gets to $10, the more I'll buy. Very happy with BTC this morning.

LOL. Yes, time will tell.
Thanks for your answer!
 

MoneyDoc

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Wyckoff Accumulation will be invalidated under $39k for those curious.

In other news, ETH lost a MAJOR MAJOR support...

Also, to add, anyone in tether (USDT) right now should HIGHLY consider switching to USDC or DAI. I converted earlier today. The "FUD" this time around tether might really come to light. The tether lawyer admitted that they hold Chinese paper. Now the "FUD" is that it's Evergrande and they are not revealing it. Just some friendly advice... I could be wrong and the "FUD" could be like the past 2-3 years on tether, or it can be real and tether implodes.
 
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Antifragile

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That's the problem with Tether (USDT), no one knows what the hell is backing it. No audit. Conveniently located in the BVI. It's not just FUD for the sake of FUD. It's real. Until now, Tether stood (still standing) on it own because of its sheet size and convenience. It's the closest thing to fiat currency I see in crypto lol.

So tempting to go all out and empty the pockets on more ETH and BTC right now... the puke is hard. Blood in the streets.
 
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MoneyDoc

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That's the problem with Tether (USDT), no one knows what the hell is backing it. No audit. Conveniently located in the BVI. It's not just FUD for the sake of FUD. It's real. Until now, Tether stood (still standing) on it own because of its sheet size and convenience. It's the closest thing to fiat currency I see in crypto lol.

So tempting to go all out and empty the pockets on more ETH and BTC right now... the puke is hard. Blood in the streets.
To be honest, volume is not the same as the dip yesterday where actual wallets sold... volume is lower which could suggest liquidations, i.e. futures driven (too many longs open). Lol ration is still round 50/50 long:short.

We'll see how this plays out, either a MASSIVE wealth creation opportunity, or we just deadcat and continue the downtrend.
 

Antifragile

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To be honest, volume is not the same as the dip yesterday where actual wallets sold... volume is lower which could suggest liquidations, i.e. futures driven (too many longs open). Lol ration is still round 50/50 long:short.

We'll see how this plays out, either a MASSIVE wealth creation opportunity, or we just deadcat and continue the downtrend.

To be clear, I am not buying shit atm. Felt smart this morning, not so much now.
Need to watch it play out. Expect the squeeze to bleed the levered guys deep.
So as tempting as it feels to empty the tank, I'll wait.
 

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