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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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GerTex

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Here's a rundown over what happened to IRON: Rekt - Iron Finance - REKT

Funny story is I almost considered farming TITAN/USDC, but I had learned an expensive lesson on another algorithmic coin and decided to stay out of this one.

Remember, there is no free lunch. If a farm promises 50,000% APY - you've got to really tell yourself your other LP pair has to be so much more valuable than their token for the protocol to be rewarding you with so many incentives for access to liquidity.
This is one that I actually can speak to since I was in the TITAN/IRON project and followed it pretty closely. The protocol as designed is actually genius. I loved what they built and it was the perfect flywheel with one tiny flaw that only got exposed when the Bank Run Stampede happened. They passed several audits and nobody could have forseen this.

The price of TITAN that Iron Finance used for the redemption mechanism is based on a 10 minute Time Weighted Average Price oracle. So it takes the average price over the past 10 minutes from a variety of sources and uses that as the value of TITAN used for redeeming IRON. That works on Ethereum where this was originally built on because transactions are so slow. It worked great on Polygon as well - until - the bank run started. At that moment price dropped so rapidly that people used bots to arbitrage the system.

All of it started with one big whale that kept dumping a large position - causing a price drop and getting people to sell. He would then swoop in $5 - $10 lower and buy his large position back. Mr. Whale did that several times successfully but kept running into resistance Monday/Tuesday. Until Wednesday morning. He caused a bit of a stir with some of the new people Cuban brought in. Which made the price drop from $61 to 30. It then bounced back to the low $50s. With that extreme of a drop, however, several whales got uncomfortable and pulled their large position and with the market nervous already it was a run to the exits. IF TCR would have pulled price every minute IRON would have regained peg from what I saw around $30 and then again around $20. Things would have been 'okay'. However, the system ended up getting gamed due to the flawed TCR and it was Game Over.

They will come back with VS. 2 I'm sure. The new lending and synthetics piece was a couple of days away from being rolled out. High hopes for the project.
 

Kak

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I am a long-term bitcoin holder.
But if it doesn't go up 400% in the next month, I'm dumping it all.
Yes, but you guys took such a hypocritical stance on gold. :rofl:

“Crypto beat it over this time frame, so therefore it’s better and gold people are idiots.”

I like crypto, but I’m glad this nonsense that it is “the new gold” is dying on the vine. It isn’t. It’s an unmolested means of exchange that has yet to truly stabilize and find its real S&D equilibrium. There are some commonalities, but they’re not even close to alternatives to one another.
 

GPM

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Gold/silver and crypto are not even related at this point in time. It's like comparing a computer to a car. The only similarity if you ask me is that they both need to be purchased with fiat for now.

Gold/silver are also so heavily manipulated it is not even funny. The paper supply so far dwarfs real supply that it's essentially a digital product as well.
 

Timmy C

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Yes, but you guys took such a hypocritical stance on gold. :rofl:

“Crypto beat it over this time frame, so therefore it’s better and gold people are idiots.”

I like crypto, but I’m glad this nonsense that it is “the new gold” is dying on the vine. It isn’t. It’s an unmolested means of exchange that has yet to truly stabilize and find its real S&D equilibrium. There are some commonalities, but they’re not even close to alternatives to one another.
Ok boomer.
Xoxo haha.
 

PeterBoss

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I can't wait to be dandruff free!
:rofl:
Most TA sites will say that H&S is like 80% reliable. In my experience, most TA patterns, in most assets won't have enough statistical relevance.
On the flip side, I could see how TA patterns would be prevalent in an asset class where most valuation techniques are useless.
 

Jeff Noel

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This is true. But we also have to remember that hindsight is 20/20. Those that sold in 2017 could very well have been the ones that were right. And the same is true for those that sell now. We simply don't know the future.


Why do you think ETH 2.0 is going to have a huge effect on ETH prices? I'd say that it can go both ways. It seems to me like much of the 2.0 hype is already priced in. I won't complain if it keeps rising, ETH is one of my biggest holdings, but I don't think it will (compared to BTC).


Will it? Why won't it fall instead? I think it is very hard to predict BTC right now. Most likely, interest rates will go up soon. Most people think that higher interest rates = lower inflation = bad for Bitcoin. Which of course holds true if enough smart people think so. This cycle may very well be over.

I think you're right long term. The energy narrative will dabble away sooner or later, more and more will realize that Bitcoin is more than magic internet money. The more energy "wasted" on Bitcoin, the more secure it gets. People will realize this sooner or later.

I agree. The majority of those pro-crypto should hodl most of their portfolio. As I see it, it has the highest risk/reward ratio. But I'd say that BTC and ETH should be at least 50% of one's portfolio. I see ADA, BNB and CRO as much riskier to hodl than the king and queen.

Btw, I don't know what CRO is doing on that list. If we look at the market cap, your list looks like this [1, 2, 4, 5, 43]. Out of curiosity, why did you pick CRO above any other crypto?

I don't get these two to add up. If this cycle is over, the next one is starting after the next halving in 2024. Bitcoin can't reach 100K in the next cycle before 2023.

If Bitcoin has reached its top this cycle, and it follows its previous trend, it will not reach its ATH before 2024. If it has not reached its top yet this cycle, I too believe we may see 100K before 2023. I'd even say before summer 2022.


ETH may very well hit #1, but not for long. Bitcoin is literally a national currency, ETH is not. ETH is great, but it still has a long way to go before it can compare itself to BTC.


ETH 2.0 may kill BNB completely. Any smart contract deployed on Binance Chain can be deployed on Ethereum, so if ETH 2.0 is successful, I see no reason why people would prefer the centralized Binance chain over the decentralized Ethereum chains.


I'm sorry, I don't have much to add here. I don't understand the ADA community, and I probably never will. Personally, looking at the tech, I think it's priced way too high. But I think the key takeaway here is faith in this coin. ADA seems like a religion to me.

Blank. I want one of those shiny metal crypto cards, I think they look awesome. But I haven't really read up on CRO or its competition at all.


I agree. Still, I think investing in NFTs can be worth it if it is (1) collectibles issued by a well-known entity, for example, an artist, musician, band, etc, or (2) it can be utilized in a game, like gods unchained or NFT Magic the Gathering cards. But it's more or less like buying a lottery ticket.


I think it's a good prediction, but I'd love to hear some more of the reasoning behind it. How did you reason to get such exact numbers? What could happen that makes you change your predictions?
I wasn't expecting such detailed feedback, thanks a lot for chiming in !

Take my numbers with a big grain of salt, they are not meant to be accurate, but rather my personal price targets for different coins.

I need to state I based my predictions on many things, and I don't pretend them to be accurate or future-proof:
Cycles
Cycles of the main coins seem to affect the whole crypto economy - Like if the whole stock market would go bearish temporarily because Amazon lost 5%. I'm highly bullish towards ETH and ETH 2.0 because such events could provoke a split in the market. People could begin to realize ETH is different than BTC and that many coins have a different purpose. This could lead to Crypto further differentiating assets rather than moving as a whole. Since ETH is already this big, I see every change with a bullish potential in the long term. I agree that mainstream adoption won't happen tomorrow, but it's a step in the right direction everytime (personal opinion).
Bullish train
Related to cycles and the whole market moving together as one. You seem to know as much as me about Cardano. I'm only bullish on this one because it's big enough, and I know the moment the market goes up, it goes too.
Ownership
Although I don't hold ADA nor BNB, it's one of the main reason I mentioned CRO, I've been following this coin for a few months only.
Fundamentals
The outcome on the Bitcoin debate (and the Chinese war against mining) could seriously hinder Crypto gross market cap growth in the short term. But I see coins like competitors in the same niche. Craigslist could fail, but FB Marketplace could survive and thrive without its presence. Whatever bad things happen to Bitcoin in the next months, the news will begin to make Eth shine, sooner or later. Will it completely destroy BTC and dethrone it permanently ? Probably not, you're right. It's a strong contender.

(TLDR about CRO: It's putting great efforts in bringing Crypto to everybody through awareness. It caught my attention, that is all there is to it)

CRO is on this list because even though it is tiny, it seems like the perfect door for newcomers and small investors in the crypto market. It's putting great efforts in bringing Crypto to everybody through awareness. It's a VISA partner, has multiple ads in mainstream events (Ice hockey, Formula 1) and a quick blockchain development on its own network - that coexists with the ERC20 chain counterpart. The Debit card is also another incentive to bring more people to the game. I didn't get one, but I know people that got it just to "be in the crypto game" - people that don't know anything about investing in general, the average dad with 4 children.
I'm not trying to convince anyone here, just explaining why I listed it here: I believe it could grow, and at less than $0.10 per CRO it could net a solid return on investment. The risk is always there though.

My reasoning
I'm not the kind of guy to scream "diamond hands" and go ape shit even though I find WSB to be quite funny and impressive when it works. I do not have faith in any coin either, I just look at the numbers, what's going on in the world and what could be happening, if bigger coins succeed, to other coins.
I'm not a technical analysis expert although I know the basics and I love it. I know this post sound way too bullish, but believe me, I just see Crypto as the "new investment" and I'm trying it out.

New principles, rules, events could appear 6 months from now that would disrupt these coins, even BTC and ETH. Time will tell. It will be an interesting ride.
 

Jeff Noel

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:rofl:
Most TA sites will say that H&S is like 80% reliable. In my experience, most TA patterns, in most assets won't have enough statistical relevance.
On the flip side, I could see how TA patterns would be prevalent in an asset class where most valuation techniques are useless.
I feel like the H&S is more effective on assets where the majority of owners are TA dependant. Especially on shorter time frames.

In my short penny stock daytrading adventure, H&S would be a "Get the f*ck out" indicator, while I've never really cared for it in long term investments.
 

GPM

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Well crypto just took a massive haircut today, anyone following anything as to why? I think sound government monetary policy is causing the crash...
 

Jeff Noel

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China organized a meeting with its top banks and probably put even more pressure on farms crackdown
 

Dora Wi

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Well crypto just took a massive haircut today, anyone following anything as to why? I think sound government monetary policy is causing the crash...
Yes it's thanks to the latest Chinese crackdowns, apart from this news being bad for the morale, the Bitcoin hashrate also decreased
 

Kevin88660

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The market is full of bears nows. The mood feels like March 2020 even though this is far from it. I am too lazy to deposit cash (take time too ) and using leveraged tokens to increase exposure.
 

Timmy C

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The market is full of bears nows. The mood feels like March 2020 even though this is far from it. I am too lazy to deposit cash (take time too ) and using leveraged tokens to increase exposure.

If you buy every single dip, you'll be able to say you timed the bottom and flex.

Totally do it.
 

Timmy C

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JamesQB8

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Whoa.. wtf

The guy lived fully and on his own terms. Gotta respect that.

A great interview with him a few years ago. Still seemed pretty sharp.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBgFGwJA1D0&t=628s
 
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thechosen1

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