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HOT TOPIC Are the property owners from this site in trouble?

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Sid23

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Things around the board have been pretty quiet lately as far as real estate goes. I'm wondering if some of the most successful people on this site who own substantial amounts of property (SteveO, RussH, GLC56, etc) are having major issues with their holdings? I'm certainly not saying this to criticize or ask anyone to share personal details, but I think we all hold those people to such high regard on this site and could learn a lot from how they are dealing with the current crisis. Especially if it is hitting home on their apartments, B&Bs, etc. Again, just a thought and certainly no need to respond if they don't want to.

Best,
Sid23
 

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Dhappy

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I'm not one of the big guys you posted about, but in my neck of the woods this small guy is doing fine. It takes a little longer to rent a place and rents have came down some. I Have been full for some time now,so I'm just out looking for the next deal,fishing and enjoying my kids..
 

hakrjak

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In the house flipping business -- I went from flying high to almost going completely broke and losing everything on 1 deal this year. When you are skating on thin ice already, 1 unusually long hold can break you. It REALLY didn't help that I ended up having to pay for my own wedding (Thanks to our wonderful families..... Who can suck it....) -- and that I got blindsided with $10k of attorney fees for my child custody case, which hit as soon as my crazy ex found out I was getting married. It's literally funny how bad life will kick you when you are down sometimes! I was laughing hysterically through all of this, because if I didn't -- I would have been sobbing... haha

I have a sale that is supposed to close next week that should hopefully allow me to pay everything off, and basically start over with almost nothing.... Which is better than the alternative I guess (Declare bankruptcy and completely go out of business for 7 years). Hey look on the bright side -- I'm now one of the most skilled home remodelers in Colorado Springs, with almost no real competition... The only problem is -- I don't have any money, and am going to have to take out hard money LOAN SHARK money at 12% and 5% up front to rebuild my business.... Just Great! I don't think we're ever going to get rich struggling to make $10k a house every 6 months though.... Time to regroup!

My rentals are still cashflowing pretty well, and I haven't had a vacancy in a couple years now (Knocking on wood)... So atleast that side is working, even though it's not bringing in that much in the way of spendable income each month. (I have all of that cashflow siphoning into an account where it stays in case of emergency vacancies, so I don't get broken if I suddenly start having to pay $2k a month in mortgages).

Cheers,

- Hakrjak
 

acb123

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Oct 1, 2009
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Yikes Hakrjak,

Sucks to be you right now but it sounds like you've got the proper mindset/attitude to get you through this speed bump.

Markets are cyclical and hopefully things will start trending up soon for you.

God Bless.
 

MJ DeMarco

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One of my friend's parents were lifelong real estate investors -- I think at their peak they owned 33 SF rentals. Now they are at near bankruptcy and moved out of their $2 million dollar home into a $150K starter. Rents are depressed and their units wont rent for the loan amounts ... and of course, they can't sell them. They're F*CKED.
 
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Sid23

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The story that MJ tells scares the crap out of me. What I don't understand is, though, why some investors are facing that horrible reality, while others report no problems.

What are the two groups doing differently? Or is it just luck of the draw?

One of my biggest fears is growing a multimillion dollar portfolio and then losing it (like the couple above) when I'm essentially too old to recover. They were obviously smart enough to build a massive portfolio...where did they go wrong? Lack of diversification once they had millions?
 

Runum

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I'm not one of the big dogs you referred to but I'm not having any real problems. Vacancies are lasting longer and rents have dropped. The advantage I have is about half of my properties are paid off. The cash flow from them easily makes up for any other properties that are barely making it. I am looking to buy more properties but not looking to finance any.
 

Dhappy

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Having all my rentals free and clear makes a big difference in this market. If I had listened to all the real estate pros and used leverage I would be singing a different tune right now.

Sorry to hear that,I feel your pain and know you can pull it out.
 

hatterasguy

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Jul 29, 2008
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I'm doing fine, and the investors I know and deal with are doing well. Actualy this has been a pretty good year for all of them. Lots of good deals to buy, money is cheap, and knock on wood rentals and spec houses are holding their own.


The ones that are SOL are the guys that were over leveraged. Those are the ones that always go belly up when rents drop and times get tough.
 

hatterasguy

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Jul 29, 2008
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The story that MJ tells scares the crap out of me. What I don't understand is, though, why some investors are facing that horrible reality, while others report no problems.

What are the two groups doing differently? Or is it just luck of the draw?

One of my biggest fears is growing a multimillion dollar portfolio and then losing it (like the couple above) when I'm essentially too old to recover. They were obviously smart enough to build a massive portfolio...where did they go wrong? Lack of diversification once they had millions?

It all comes down to margins, leverage, and experiance.

Those that have a reasonable level of debt, do well. Those that have to much go under.
 

Cat Man Du

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Jul 30, 2007
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One of my friend's parents were lifelong real estate investors -- I think at their peak they owned 33 SF rentals. Now they are at near bankruptcy and moved out of their $2 million dollar home into a $150K starter. Rents are depressed and their units wont rent for the loan amounts ... and of course, they can't sell them. They're F*CKED.
HELP is on the way !!! :hurray:

Wellll Shut my mouth !!! Finally HELP for the little guy !!

Fed housing program encourages short sales

WASHINGTON – Dec. 1, 2009 – The Obama Administration, through the Treasury Department, announced new housing guidelines yesterday. While a series of announcements highlighted different programs, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) focused on changes that will make it easier for real estate associates to deal with short sales and “deeds in lieu of foreclosure.â€

The program’s official name is the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA), and it’s part of an existing initiative, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). HAFA applies to loans not owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which cover over half of all U.S. mortgages; however, Fannie and Freddie will issue their own versions of HAFA in coming weeks.


While HAFA’s goal is simple – increase the number of short sales and “deeds in lieu of foreclosure†by simplifying the process – the rules are complex, and it comes with 43 pages of guidelines and forms. Among other things, HAFA:

• Allows borrowers to receive pre-approved short sales terms before listing the property (including the minimum acceptable net proceeds).

• Prohibits servicers from requiring a reduction in the real estate commission agreed upon in the listing agreement (up to 6 percent).

• Requires borrowers to be fully released from future liability for the first mortgage debt (no cash contribution, promissory note, or deficiency judgment is allowed.)
• Provides financial incentives: $1,500 for borrower relocation assistance; $1,000 for servicers to cover administrative and processing costs; and up to $1,000 for investors.

The program does not take effect until April 5, 2010, but servicers may implement it before then if they meet certain requirements. The program sunsets on Dec. 31, 2012.
For more information, read the Nov. 30 HAMP news release: "javascript:HandleLink('cpe_0_0','CPNEWWIN:NewWindow^top=10,left=10,width=500,height=400,toolbar=1,location=1,directories=0,status=1,menubar=1,scrollbars=1,resizable=1@https://www.hmpadmin.com/portal/docs/news/hampupdate113009.pdf');"
 

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MonTexan

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Mar 9, 2009
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You want to know what causes the downfall of almost every business that fails - real estate or otherwise?

*CASH FLOW PROBLEMS*

Speculating on appreciation, extensive over-leveraging, and chasing a quick buck catches up with people in times like these. Buying solid rental property that cash flows well (and I'm not talking just about rent minus mortgage payment!) is generally a great recipe for building wealth over time.

But believe me, someone with 33 rent houses shouldn't be living in a $2MM house and driving a Rolls. Let's say they NET $400 per month per door - this would be excellent and is probably unlikely. $400 x 33 x 12 = $158,400 per year. That ain't rich and won't afford you an MTV Crib.

Unless of course you live in Cali, take out a 50 year adjustable rate, negative amortizing mortgage with zero down...then it might. For a while.

When the vacancies creep up, rents soften a bit, and they actually have to start paying interest on their Crib, CASH FLOW becomes a problem and it's back to the burbs...
 

Cat Man Du

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Jul 30, 2007
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You want to know what causes the downfall of almost every business that fails - real estate or otherwise?

*CASH FLOW PROBLEMS*

Speculating on appreciation, extensive over-leveraging, and chasing a quick buck catches up with people in times like these. Buying solid rental property that cash flows well (and I'm not talking just about rent minus mortgage payment!) is generally a great recipe for building wealth over time.

But believe me, someone with 33 rent houses shouldn't be living in a $2MM house and driving a Rolls. Let's say they NET $400 per month per door - this would be excellent and is probably unlikely. $400 x 33 x 12 = $158,400 per year. That ain't rich and won't afford you an MTV Crib.

Unless of course you live in Cali, take out a 50 year adjustable rate, negative amortizing mortgage with zero down...then it might. For a while.

When the vacancies creep up, rents soften a bit, and they actually have to start paying interest on their Crib, CASH FLOW becomes a problem and it's back to the burbs...
$5.00 millionaires !:smx6:
 

hakrjak

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Rentals still seem like a solid way to make your living.... But if you are renting houses in ridiculous speculative markets like San Francisco -- You are going to live by the bubble, and die by the bubble!

Become a slumlord in Omaha, or San Antonio, or Albuquerque, or gasp Colorado Springs :)

Step outside of the bubble.

Thanks for the encouragement folks ;)

I'm really hoping I'm able to rebuild my home flipping business in 2010 after my wife completes her PHD internship. I've decided to shut it down until then, because I'm supporting both of us, the kids, and the crazy ex all on a crappy W2 salary... Atleast until she can get a post-doc job and start raking in the cash. It would be ridiculous for me to over extend myself when we're barely scraping by. I simply don't have the cash to do it. Very sad about having to take this break, because I believe it's something I was getting very good at. It's always hard to walk away from something that you love, and you are passionate about!

:smxD:

Cheers,

- Hakrjak
 

kwerner

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I'm really hoping I'm able to rebuild my home flipping business in 2010...

Hak -

If a schmuck like Trump can go to the brink of disaster and make a comeback, you certainly can too.

Here's to wishing you a prosperous 2010 :cheers:
 
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Sid23

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Aug 9, 2007
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Rentals still seem like a solid way to make your living.... But if you are renting houses in ridiculous speculative markets like San Francisco -- You are going to live by the bubble, and die by the bubble!

Become a slumlord in Omaha, or San Antonio, or Albuquerque, or gasp Colorado Springs :)

Step outside of the bubble.
Actually, San Francisco wasn't in a bubble. Some of the far surrounding burbs, yes. But the city itself, no. It, like Manhattan, holds its value extremely well, even in these times.

Southern California, San Diego, Orange County and Central Valley = BUBBLE.
 

MonTexan

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Mar 9, 2009
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Actually, San Francisco wasn't in a bubble. Some of the far surrounding burbs, yes. But the city itself, no. It, like Manhattan, holds its value extremely well, even in these times.
This may be true, but I bet you'd be hard-pressed to find a cash-flowing single family rental house to buy in San Fran.
 

hakrjak

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San Francisco has been insanely inflated for the last 20+ years... You don't think SF is a bubble town? Prices skyrocketted there during the dot-com boom, and have been on the decline ever since.

Like Montexan indicated above... If you can't buy cashflowing rentals there, then that's a clear sign that Real Estate is still way too overvalued in an area.

- Hakrjak
 
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Sid23

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Just because you can't find a cash flowing rental doesn't mean it is a bubble. There are several areas of the US where you can't find a cashflowing rental. Incidentially, in Miami and Orange County, the EPICENTERS of the bubble, you can find plenty today.
 

Russ H

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San Francisco has been insanely inflated for the last 20+ years... You don't think SF is a bubble town? Prices skyrocketted there during the dot-com boom, and have been on the decline ever since.

Like Montexan indicated above... If you can't buy cashflowing rentals there, then that's a clear sign that Real Estate is still way too overvalued in an area.

- Hakrjak
Um, have to disagree with ya there, Hak.

RE markets are different all over the world. Some are better for rentals. Others are better for fix/flips.

The CA market is typically better for the latter.

Look at home/building prices in Manhattan. Or Hong Kong. Tokyo.

And of the world's "International Cities" (that includes San Francisco).

Nearly all of those places have murderous RE prices for residential type RE.

Doesn't mean they're in a bubble.

But it does mean the prices shift up and down more.

But even at their lowest, they're still sucky markets for renting, unless you come in w/a whole lotta cash.

At least that's what I've seen. Obviously, people still buy these as RE investors. So there is clearly something here I don't know.

-Russ H.
 

phlgirl

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Aug 29, 2007
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You want to know what causes the downfall of almost every business that fails - real estate or otherwise?

*CASH FLOW PROBLEMS*

Speculating on appreciation, extensive over-leveraging, and chasing a quick buck catches up with people in times like these. Buying solid rental property that cash flows well (and I'm not talking just about rent minus mortgage payment!) is generally a great recipe for building wealth over time.

But believe me, someone with 33 rent houses shouldn't be living in a $2MM house and driving a Rolls. Let's say they NET $400 per month per door - this would be excellent and is probably unlikely. $400 x 33 x 12 = $158,400 per year. That ain't rich and won't afford you an MTV Crib.

Unless of course you live in Cali, take out a 50 year adjustable rate, negative amortizing mortgage with zero down...then it might. For a while.

When the vacancies creep up, rents soften a bit, and they actually have to start paying interest on their Crib, CASH FLOW becomes a problem and it's back to the burbs...
I agree 100%. ++++

Cash Flow is the single most important factor in any business/investment. A super smart business advisor of mine, Keith J Cunningham, pointed out how odd it is that the two primary financial statements (Balance Sheet and Income Statement (P&L)) don't monitor the flow of cash. As an accountant, it was definitely a realization for me. It is crucial.

I own a good number of homes and live comfortably but no where near 2MM mortgage.....and its a used Lexus and Caddy. ;)

I believe the key to success in any market/economy is to keep moving and adjusting. Find the deal..... it may not be right where you left it but it is absolutely out there!

Hak - if you are confident in your ability and have a good track record finding and executing deals, you can use someone else's money. They put up the money, you bring the ability - 50/50 (or whatever works for you). People recognize the potential in this market (particularly W2 types) and they want to get involved....... they don't have any clue how....and most, quite frankly, have no interest in knowing. It's a win-win. Margins need to be Steep when sharing profits - but in this market that is completely doable. If you want a break, take a break. Just don't think that you don't have options, that's all.
 

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Russ H

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To answer your question Sid:

We have quite a bit of RE, but we don't really consider ourselves "big dogs".

We have some serious mortgage/prop tax payments (over $400K/yr). That is a tough nut.

But some good news:

-More than doubled our number of rooms this year (went from 12 to 29)
-Overall gross revenues are up (not much, but they are up)
-Looks like this will be our first $1M+ year for revenues (before expenses).

*******

The next few months will be hard. Very hard.

But if the market holds up (ie, stays flat), things will get really good by March.

Short term: Ick.

Long term: Very nice.

As you've all heard me say: Time will tell! :)

-Russ H.
 

hakrjak

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Re: SF -- Go to this chart:

San Francisco average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

Click 4 bedroom homes....

And you'll see that the median sales price has been all over the chart, but has crashed pretty hard in the years since the bubble burst. From $1.3mil to just above $500k. Sales dropped from 100 to under 50 on the chart below. I'd say that's evidence that SF has been just as impacted as the rest of the country, if not more.

In DEN I might have lost $10k on a 4 bedroom home, but in SF -- I would have lost $800,000 in the same period of time.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak
 

phlgirl

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Aug 29, 2007
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To answer your question Sid:

We have quite a bit of RE, but we don't really consider ourselves "big dogs".

We have some serious mortgage/prop tax payments (over $400K/yr). That is a tough nut.

But some good news:

-More than doubled our number of rooms this year (went from 12 to 29)
-Overall gross revenues are up (not much, but they are up)
-Looks like this will be our first $1M+ year for revenues (before expenses).

*******

The next few months will be hard. Very hard.

But if the market holds up (ie, stays flat), things will get really good by March.

Short term: Ick.

Long term: Very nice.

As you've all heard me say: Time will tell! :)

-Russ H.

Sounds like a GOOD time, Russ!!! Very exciting stuff..... you must be learning a ton! Love that.

I really have to get over there! Brother moved to SD - could be soon!
 

Bilgefisher

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I'm looking to start the best year of my life coming up. I picked up 2 rentals and my home in the last 18 months. My home will become my third rental and I will flip 10 properties either by wholesale or rehab in the next 18 months. I found a niche in my area for real estate and the pieces are falling into place. Real estate is only dead for those who decide it is. As for me, its alive and kicking.
 

Russ H

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Re: SF -- Go to this chart:

San Francisco average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

Click 4 bedroom homes....

And you'll see that the median sales price has been all over the chart, but has crashed pretty hard in the years since the bubble burst. From $1.3mil to just above $500k. Sales dropped from 100 to under 50 on the chart below. I'd say that's evidence that SF has been just as impacted as the rest of the country, if not more.

In DEN I might have lost $10k on a 4 bedroom home, but in SF -- I would have lost $800,000 in the same period of time.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak
Hak, it hasn't crashed. People just pulled their homes off the market.

So the only homes that are selling are those where people HAVE to sell.

So they sell for much less (the classic "motivated seller").

Also, trying to compare 4 BR homes in SF is like trying to compare cars by how many seats they have.

A 2 seat Lambo costs more than a 4 seat Camry? :wtf:

Same w/SF real estate.

Some 1-2 bedroom homes in SF are over $1 million. WAAAAAY more than most 3-4 BR homes in SF. And rightly so (they're super upscale, top of the top).

Same goes for 4 BR homes. Some are old and rundown. Others are spectacular mansions. Hence the "up down" pricing if you only look at avg sales price. Like looking at how much 4 seater Maybachs sold for one month, then how much a 4 seater Toyota sold for the next.

-Russ H.

PS Here's a 2 BR place for sale right now. Price: $6,300,000. I know the building well--designed his and her theaters for the apt a few floors up (where the view is better than this lower unit). The unit I worked on was featured in Arch Digest, Feb 95.
 

Russ H

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I'm looking to start the best year of my life coming up. I picked up 2 rentals and my home in the last 18 months. My home will become my third rental and I will flip 10 properties either by wholesale or rehab in the next 18 months. I found a niche in my area for real estate and the pieces are falling into place. Real estate is only dead for those who decide it is. As for me, its alive and kicking.
Rep speed for ATTITUDE! :hurray:

-Russ H.
 

Russ H

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Sounds like a GOOD time, Russ!!! Very exciting stuff..... you must be learning a ton! Love that.

I really have to get over there! Brother moved to SD - could be soon!
We are learning a ton. :)

Love to have ya come visit, phlgirl.

I was actually in Philly for about 36 hours a few weeks ago. Had a big meeting (fun stuff). Would have called you if I could have gotten my head out of the meeting-- but had to literally hop on and off planes to make it as short a trip as possible (crazy cheap fare: $238 ROUNDTRIP on Frontier w/less than 2 weeks notice!)

-Russ H.
 

unicon

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Feb 23, 2008
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Real Estate has the most certainty if bought correctly and is generally very forgiving if reality is present and one is objective.

The danger on the horizon is inflation and that is the problem to prepare for.

What is good today can go bad tomorrow, my portfolio is conservatively loaned to value which is not smart given the likely inflation in the future.

My acquisitions have not been based upon volume but a synergistic set of properties that can be used for many multiple purposes which is a quality concept.

Another concept with regard to property is that flexibility is equal to profitability, even if you dont have particular numbers in the early period of the investment but you invested in flexibility, that pays off over the long term in spades.

This is a management thing not a flipping thing, the permanence and real rewards come over the long term its like a rail road gaining speed.

Have so much work currently just on my own properties even though this last year had a house burn down and a separate building cave in from snow - crazy things on top of crazy things. Because of our management philosophy every bad thing becomes a good thing. These things would take others down - instead we profit and grow from them.

My current concerns financially are global with regard to inflation as one could triple or increase net worth ten times by taking a calculated risk and increasing debt. Have done this before on purchasing businesses and had set backs, but this is a financial structuring consideration or decision based upon experience.

RE gives you massive choices in the mature stage, but no matter how big one bad move can cut into all previous gains. Certain windows for big gains come along every few years and the stronger one is RE allows that choice to be taken.

That is why older move slower, we must walk down the mountain - not run, however the results have a big potential reward.

Further cash flow and cash enable holding power. Cash in itself is a depreciating asset. We are putting cash to work as fast as possible back into properties with a sense of urgency accenting pure production (quality). Not unlike Russ example of 500k completing a project quickly - speed is important in this enviornment especially to finish.

Finishing means opening up new choices, finishing comes in stages, maybe a bathroom, a kitchen, a landscape, then a whole house, a closing, etc Real Estate allows you to have many finishes in many races.
 

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