Are Non-Fiction "to do" Books Facing an Existential Crisis?

[ChickenHawk]

Sorry for the delay! Here's my numbers. Actually, it was quite interesting.

2014: Baseline, it was my first full year
2015: -81% (compared to 2014)
2016: -98% (compared to 2015)
2017: -106% (compared to 2016)
2018: +12% (compared to 2017)
2019: +24% (compared to 2018)
2020: +12% (compared to 2019)
Best Year (2014) vs Worst Year (2017): -636% (Yikes)

Some observations:
1. ADVERTISING: The biggest thing (negatively) impacting my earnings is the high cost of advertising/getting visibility. There are many days where the advertisers (Facebook, Amazon) make more money than I do off my books. As far as long-term trends, it isn't so much that my revenue has gone down, but rather that the cost of advertising has gone way up. IMO, the availability of advertising has made life worse for most self-published authors because it's so expensive in terms of time and money.

2. SCAMMERS: The period from 2017 to 2018 was godawful for writers in my genre. This was when scammers invaded the charts with 2,000 page, 99-cent romance "books" that cheated Kindle Unlimited and drove the cost of advertising/visibility to sky-high levels. If I could go back in time, I would've never published a single book during this timeframe. Rather, I would've saved these books for when Amazon finally purged these scammers. During this timeframe, there were MANY months where I would've made more working at Taco Bell.

3. PAY-TO-PLAY REPLACES "ALSO-BOUGHTS": This sort of relates to point #1, but Amazon used to be really great with organic recommendations, both for authors and for readers. I used to find a lot of great books that way. But now, with almost everything being sponsored ads, it's made the book buying (and selling) experience pretty cruddy (and pricey) compared to where it used to be.

4. AUDIOBOOK SUCKERY: A small thing impacting my earnings was Amazon's introduction of a "listen to as much as you want for a flat-fee" subscription package. I actually stopped doing audiobooks for a while as a result, which greatly reduced one revenue source. I jumped back into it this year, but it will be a while before these audiobooks earn out their production costs.

@MTF: Am I recalling correctly that a pretty significant source of your income was the Audible Bonus Program? Has that completely dried up for you? If so, how much of your income-reduction can be traced to that? Do you know? I'm asking because I'm wondering if this one change from Amazon/Audible is making it seem like your success has declined more than it has as far as your readers are concerned.

 

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[MTF]

2014: Baseline, it was my first full year
2015: -81% (compared to 2014)
2016: -98% (compared to 2015)
2017: -106% (compared to 2016)
2018: +12% (compared to 2017)
2019: +24% (compared to 2018)
2020: +12% (compared to 2019)
Best Year (2014) vs Worst Year (2017): -636% (Yikes)

Wow so you actually killed it in your first year!

And how much better was your best year compared to 2020? Like, 5x more income in 2014?

1. ADVERTISING: The biggest thing (negatively) impacting my earnings is the high cost of advertising/getting visibility. There are many days where the advertisers (Facebook, Amazon) make more money than I do off my books. As far as long-term trends, it isn't so much that my revenue has gone down, but rather that the cost of advertising has gone way up. IMO, the availability of advertising has made life worse for most self-published authors because it's so expensive in terms of time and money.

Is there any way we can do away with advertising? I don't use Facebook Ads and Amazon ads (on Amazon.com, I use them on international sites, though). But for each launch I use book promo sites (they seem to be getting worse because they ruin also-boughts with crappy books) and BookBub Ads (this almost never works to make a profit, just to get some initial traction).

I'm wondering if there's a way to simply launch a new pen name once and then focus on word of mouth instead of wasting money on all the ads. I don't think that any big names (or their publishers) like Stephen King or Brandon Sanderson run Facebook or Amazon Ads (maybe I'm wrong, though).

3. PAY-TO-PLAY REPLACES "ALSO-BOUGHTS": This sort of relates to point #1, but Amazon used to be really great with organic recommendations, both for authors and for readers. I used to find a lot of great books that way. But now, with almost everything being sponsored ads, it's made the book buying (and selling) experience pretty cruddy (and pricey) compared to where it used to be.

That's what worries me the most. Recently I had a $0.99 promo with other authors for two days. My book jumped from zero sales to over 100 for both days. When I switched it back to its regular price, the sales disappeared. Previously, after such a promo there would be a period of additional sales due to organic traffic, I assume largely through also-boughts. Same with launches. Previously, if you generated a ton of sales in the launch week, the book continued selling even after increasing the price. These days, not so much. It quickly stops selling. Is this your experience as well? (assuming you ever stopped advertising for a while to see the effect)

@MTF: Am I recalling correctly that a pretty significant source of your income was the Audible Bonus Program? Has that completely dried up for you? If so, how much of your income-reduction can be traced to that? Do you know? I'm asking because I'm wondering if this one change from Amazon/Audible is making it seem like your success has declined more than it has as far as your readers are concerned.

Yes, all the way to zero. I find it ridiculous how ACX changed bounties from $50 for all leads to laughable $75 for only those you referred yourself (or in other words, nobody). I think I made 2 or 3 new bounties. And before it was hundreds of people a month.

My income from ACX royalties is today roughly 2x less than in my best months. But bounties accounted for up to 80-90% of my ACX income back then. In my best month ever, bounties generated 82% of my income. So yes, a huge portion of the drop is the cancellation of this program.

But my income from English-speaking titles has also dropped by a lot. If it weren't for translations (and Amazon Advertising that thankfully works great in these countries), I'd be making probably 2x less than now as they account for about 50% of my income. I also make much more money from Udemy compared to my best months in 2017.

 

[ChickenHawk]

Wow so you actually killed it in your first year!

Oh yeah. But part of this was the timing. I hit a hot new niche during a goldrush. This was also before Kindle Unlimited. Plus, advertising wasn't even a thing. Neither Facebook nor Amazon ran ads for books, so authors didn't have to scramble (or pay) for advertising. In those days, a book would rise on quality, word-of-mouth and also-boughts. Ah, to be back in 2014 again!

And how much better was your best year compared to 2020? Like, 5x more income in 2014?

Close! It was more like 4.25x the income. But here's a real kicker. Comparing 2014 to 2020, my GROSS earnings dropped by only about half. Advertising expenses really ARE eating me alive.

Is there any way we can do away with advertising? I don't use Facebook Ads and Amazon ads (on Amazon.com, I use them on international sites, though). But for each launch I use book promo sites (they seem to be getting worse because they ruin also-boughts with crappy books) and BookBub Ads (this almost never works to make a profit, just to get some initial traction).

I've wondered the same thing. The secret, I think, is to be in a niche that isn't so heavily advertised. At this point, I'm not even sure such a niche exists. Or if it does, it might (as you alluded to in your progress thread) be a niche not worth pursuing. Every once in a while, I debate just releasing a book and seeing how it does without advertising. The only problem is that if you don't get traction out of the gate, your book might be pegged as a dud by the Amazon algos, and you're out of luck for the lifespan of the book.

For my USA Amazon ads, I've been paying an average of 43 cents a click. This means that I'm probably losing money (short-term) on nearly every ad I run. The only way I make money is if those buyers go on to buy other books in my lineup. One thing I've found, too, is that on Amazon USA, it's not even worth advertising books that aren't in Kindle Unlimited. (This might be just a romance thing though.)

That's what worries me the most. Recently I had a $0.99 promo with other authors for two days. My book jumped from zero sales to over 100 for both days. When I switched it back to its regular price, the sales disappeared. Previously, after such a promo there would be a period of additional sales due to organic traffic, I assume largely through also-boughts. Same with launches. Previously, if you generated a ton of sales in the launch week, the book continued selling even after increasing the price. These days, not so much. It quickly stops selling. Is this your experience as well? (assuming you ever stopped advertising for a while to see the effect)

I haven't done a lot of 99-cent promos, but it does seem that once a book isn't being advertised, it drops like a stone. It's almost like if you're not actively pushing and paying for visibility, Amazon stops selling your book. For me, the only exception relates to my backlist. If I have a new release that's doing well, I'll see nice increases in my backlist, even if I'm not actively advertising those older books. In fact, I sometimes think the primary benefit of a new release is to sell those older books. If I didn't have a backlist, I'd have a hard time staying profitable.

In 2020, a nearly third of my gross revenue came from books that weren't published in 2020. But I'm pretty sure they accounted for more than half of my net profit because they weren't saddled with those high advertising costs.

Yes, all the way to zero. I find it ridiculous how ACX changed bounties from $50 for all leads to laughable $75 for only those you referred yourself (or in other words, nobody). I think I made 2 or 3 new bounties. And before it was hundreds of people a month.

Ugh! They probably noticed you were making money and decided that had to end, pronto! Not even sure if I'm joking. Amazon does seem to be getting better and better at squeezing their authors. One thing Audible recently eliminated though was their all-you-can-listen romance package because authors were earning mere pennies per listen of a full book, and I'm pretty sure that a lot of authors dropped out. On a similar note, I stopped producing audiobooks entirely because I didn't want to offer my books for mere pennies or compete with "free". Combine that with the change in the bounty system, and there really wasn't much to make producing an audiobook worthwhile.

But my income from English-speaking titles has also dropped by a lot. If it weren't for translations (and Amazon Advertising that thankfully works great in these countries), I'd be making probably 2x less than now as they account for about 50% of my income. I also make much more money from Udemy compared to my best months in 2017.

Very interesting. On a similar note, I'm fairly certain that the majority of my 2020 (net) income came from the UK, not the US. And now once again, you have me thinking of foreign translations. Hmmm... If only my books were shorter, I'd definitely give it a try.

I think the US market is pretty tough right now. Obviously, some people are doing great. But if it weren't for the UK, I'm not sure I'd stick with the whole self-pubbing thing because I work too hard to earn Taco Bell wages (as I did for much of 2017-2018).

 

[MTF]

Very interesting. On a similar note, I'm fairly certain that the majority of my 2020 (net) income came from the UK, not the US. And now once again, you have me thinking of foreign translations. Hmmm... If only my books were shorter, I'd definitely give it a try.

I don't think I'd do it for long books. Translations are a hit or miss kind of a thing. So mathematically, it's not a good bet to invest at least $10k (if not more) for probably not even a 50% chance of making more than $10k over the next years. And you'd have to translate the entire series for it to make sense, increasing the risk even further.

I think the US market is pretty tough right now. Obviously, some people are doing great.

The only people I know who are doing great are hiring ghostwriters. That, plus perhaps some unicorns but I'm having doubts about their rankings (something is fishy there).

 

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[Antifragile]

As a customer I can share my own preferences and how they shifted in the last 10 years. I used to buy hard copy books, now I do not. I buy exclusively on Kindle.

This means something to writers, unless someone recommends the book to me as a "must read and now", 80% of my purchases are based on:
1. Book is highly rated on reviews (the more 5 stars the better, I'll go one step further and read a random sample of reviews, but I will not buy if poorly rated).
2. Usually I wait for the book to be on sale $0.99 types, because I already have 50+ unread books in my library on my kindle, I am not in a hurry.
3. I gift hard copy books but only my top 20 of all time and with a specific purpose in mind for the reader.

From this perspective, I expect the book sales $ volume for ordinary books to decline because of customers like me but not because I watch more YouTube or something else. I have changed how I read.

I still go through 30 to 50 non-fiction books a year and re-read great books 2-3 per year (only!). MJ is in a league of his own, so I am not surprised his books keep selling better. Very few people can make that claim or expect to get there.

The above applies to 80% of my non-fiction book purchases. The other 20% is reserved to books that my friends tested and told me to read. I will not wait for sales, I will just buy and bump them up to the top of the list and read. That's word of moth marketing for you. I just bought a $30 book two weeks ago because this. There are very few books that make it on this list (out of 30 - 50 I read in a year, this list gets 6 books!).

Hope this helps.

 

[S.Y.]

I thought a bit about my habits have evolved:

I'm buying fewer books and more audiobooks. Audio is a more convenient format. I am taking regular walks and I can pull up Audible and listen to something. And a well-narrated audiobook is absolutely amazing. (listen to the sample of The Autobiography of Malcolm X, or Heros by Stephen Fry. Just brilliant and engaging)

I have bought few "To-Do" books, mainly for things that haven't changed much. Think storytelling or things related to human nature. For hard skills, I go for online courses, YouTube, or the internet.

Fewer new books. I'm increasingly re-reading books. And most of the books I buy now are Classics that stood the test of time, both fiction and non-fiction; with non-fiction being mainly philosophy or history.

I still very much enjoy books. I don't see NetFlix or YouTube replacing books for me. I take well-written fiction books over NetFlix shows anytime.

 

[Lex DeVille]

I thought a bit about my habits have evolved:

I'm buying fewer books and more audiobooks. Audio is a more convenient format. I am taking regular walks and I can pull up Audible and listen to something. And a well-narrated audiobook is absolutely amazing. (listen to the sample of The Autobiography of Malcolm X, or Heros by Stephen Fry. Just brilliant and engaging)

I have bought few "To-Do" books, mainly for things that haven't changed much. Think storytelling or things related to human nature. For hard skills, I go for online courses, YouTube, or the internet.

Fewer new books. I'm increasingly re-reading books. And most of the books I buy now are Classics that stood the test of time, both fiction and non-fiction; with non-fiction being mainly philosophy or history.

I still very much enjoy books. I don't see NetFlix or YouTube replacing books for me. I take well-written fiction books over NetFlix shows anytime.

I leaned into audiobooks for a while, but over the past 1-2 years started giving preference to podcasts. Audiobooks are a mixed batch on narration and most aren't as right now relevant as a weekly or daily podcast.

There are several unlistened to audiobooks on my phone because when I start to listen I get bored with the style of speaking. As soon as I find myself zoning out while the narrator drones on, I switch to a podcast.

I don't read or listen to fiction much so that might have something to do with it, but I'd rather listen to Joe Rogan or @Kak or any number of other niche podcasts that can talk about my immediate interests for almost the exact right amount of time for a workout (or whatever I'm doing).

 

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[Kak]

I leaned into audiobooks for a while, but over the past 1-2 years started giving preference to podcasts. Audiobooks are a mixed batch on narration and most aren't as right now relevant as a weekly or daily podcast.

There are several unlistened to audiobooks on my phone because when I start to listen I get bored with the style of speaking. As soon as I find myself zoning out while the narrator drones on, I switch to a podcast.

I don't read or listen to fiction much so that might have something to do with it, but I'd rather listen to Joe Rogan or @Kak or any number of other niche podcasts that can talk about my immediate interests for almost the exact right amount of time for a workout (or whatever I'm doing).

Yes!

When listening to podcasts, there is personality in the discussion.

Audio books are so unbelievably boring by comparison. As a matter of fact, I have read more kindle and paper books than audible since I discovered a love for several podcasts. It is like I also rediscovered how peaceful reading with my eyes is.

 

[MTF]

I know that it's a very small sample but all the previous responses just confirm my suspicions that with new ways to consume content, it's no longer competing just with other books but with completely different formats, too (including something as spontaneous and unstructured as most podcasts).

 

[Kid]

The rabbit hole goes even deeper.

Basically, one "author" on topic beaten to death online and in paper books (tech niche) did high sales by shooting the rabbit with the cannon:
A course that had
- quizzes
- mini-games
- videos
- articles
- some kind of forum and coaching
- and some "real world" tasks to do on your own

The thing is that what he taught is so simple and basic that probably few page leaflet could do its job.

So he capitalized on un-familiarity and make it look that all those mini-games and what not are better for self learners than simple book.

For me i find this approach irritating - for example while learning language i have to go through some game mechanics in order to learn new words or grammatical structure.
All those "Points" and "Prizes" are nothing but
distraction to what's important.

People are naive. They buy, amazed by amount of "content".
Authors "make" money.

But did those people really learned something?
Or did they just turned into people expecting that world
will give them real-life problems in puzzle and mini-game format...

So to answer the question: time of to-do books might be in the past and what's coming doesn't seem to be an improvement.

 

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[MTF]

@Kid Duolingo is a great example of a gamified learning experience that doesn't really work well for actually learning the language. But like you said, I guess people just want quizzes, not effective learning.

 

[S.Y.]

I leaned into audiobooks for a while, but over the past 1-2 years started giving preference to podcasts. Audiobooks are a mixed batch on narration and most aren't as right now relevant as a weekly or daily podcast.

There are several unlistened to audiobooks on my phone because when I start to listen I get bored with the style of speaking. As soon as I find myself zoning out while the narrator drones on, I switch to a podcast.

I don't read or listen to fiction much so that might have something to do with it, but I'd rather listen to Joe Rogan or @Kak or any number of other niche podcasts that can talk about my immediate interests for almost the exact right amount of time for a workout (or whatever I'm doing).

I agree. Narration sometimes sucks. I usually listen to non fiction at 1.75x or more. It rescues its importance in a way

Yes!

When listening to podcasts, there is personality in the discussion.

Audio books are so unbelievably boring by comparison. As a matter of fact, I have read more kindle and paper books than audible since I discovered a love for several podcasts. It is like I also rediscovered how peaceful reading with my eyes is.

I tried podcasts but then stopped. Will give it another shot and see how it goes.