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Antifragile

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Damn guys, don't you tease the Tesla investor

Am holding position of about 300k now in TSLA. Started first investing 7 years ago in Tesla. Switched from small Amazon bet to Tesla as I saw more potential. And still betting that Tesla will 5x or more in 10 years.

But had I - say - first started a Company, sold it and then invested to Tesla with bigger bet size, would be now much better. MJ's philosophy holds.

To tie back to topic. Great companies often look pricy. But if you have long term View and reason to believe that market does not Account for everything, the price might not be too pricy after all.
What exactly gives you the confidence in Tesla? The low P/E ratio? :rofl:
 
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otek

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What exactly gives you the confidence in Tesla? The low P/E ratio? :rofl:
Amazon had crazy pe ratios whole time, like Tesla now. It's the growth rate of the business. For example 1.5^10 is 57x.
Tesla has managed that for now. In the future we will see. Of course the TAM caps it. Car, energy and transportation in General, is luckily huge market.
 

otek

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Amazon had crazy pe ratios whole time, like Tesla now. It's the growth rate of the business. For example 1.5^10 is 57x.
Tesla has managed that for now. In the future we will see. Of course the TAM caps it. Car, energy and transportation in General, is luckily huge market.
And of course the profitability is required at some point. With Tesla the operating leverage has kicked in already, the operating margin is almost 15 percent
 

Antifragile

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That’s a lot of hopeum @otek

It may be a mistake to compare Tesla to Amazon in spite of both CEOs being space boys.

Let me be more specific. Amazon disrupted Retail industry by lowering Transaction Costs (TCs). I’ll define TCs as
1. Triangulation: the cost of the parties finding one another and agreeing on price and other terms.
2. Transfer: The cost of transferring the goods and the payment; and
3. Trust: the cost of ensuring each party will honour the terms of the deal.

Back in the late 1800s and early 1900s - Department Store as a concept did the same.

Then he did it again with various server offerings for digital storage etc. He did not have a high PE ratio, he had losses! He did it on purpose and wrote to his investors why (read Jeff Bezos letters for more info).

Please educate me on what you expect Elon to do to get the 5x? And from todays 300 PE ratio - how is he supposed to lower it to something that could get an investor excited?

There is hype around Tesla and being “green”. And the guy has rockets in space - amazing stuff, I get it.

But can we focus for a second on what it means to have a 300x PE ratio? I mean… shit 300!!!

I feel that investing in Tesla today is like being welcomed to Sparta:

E8EFB3F3-E165-4FA2-8271-1D9E3009402B.gif
 

thechosen1

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Amazon had crazy pe ratios whole time, like Tesla now. It's the growth rate of the business. For example 1.5^10 is 57x.
Tesla has managed that for now. In the future we will see. Of course the TAM caps it. Car, energy and transportation in General, is luckily huge market.
"Tesla's return on common equity for fiscal years ending December 2016 to 2020 averaged -19.7%. Tesla's operated at median return on common equity of -21.3% from fiscal years ending December 2016 to 2020. Looking back at the last five years, Tesla's return on common equity peaked in June 2021 at 12.4%"
 

otek

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That’s a lot of hopeum @otek

Please educate me on what you expect Elon to do to get the 5x? And from todays 300 PE ratio - how is he supposed to lower it to something that could get an investor excited?

View attachment 40466

The 300 pe (last 12 months) is already misleading as Tesla has grown its net income during recent quarter. Assuming Tesla does not grow anymore and holds the 1.6 billion net income level By quarter, times 4. 900/(4*1,62) = 138,89 PE

Taking into account that Tesla is buildig two new factories and has also new Products in pipeline, seems likely that the revenue will grow. And the net income will likely grow even more due to operating leverage.

For exemple if Tesla after about two years has ramped up fremont to 500k, shanghai 600k, berlin 550k, Austin 550k, would more than double the revenue. Assuming 48k asp. 48k * 2200k, 105 600 billion in revenues. Current Gross margin is 30 %. Due to operating leverage, RD and SGA would likely not grow as fast as revenue. Operating margin could be say about 19% (from 14.x percent)

If you look up Tesla's balance aiheet, Tesla has almost already paid down its debt. Interest payments would not be as much. Net income would be after taxes maybe around 15 %

With automotive, pe would be with current market cap, 900/(105.6*0,15) = 56.8 PE. In about 2 years.

And I don't think its likely that Tesla stops expansion in 2023. My time horizon with Tesla is 10 - 20 years.

Of course those are rough Estimates and can go wrong. But illustrates the concept that crazy high PE can go down quite fast.

However with Tesla I believe the market will give, maybe around 100 PE in 2023, so it will always look crazy expensive.
 
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Antifragile

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Wait a minute, so you are hoping that one day Tesla has a 30x PE ratio? And you fully expect it to stay above 100x and still it’s a good investment?

Oh my… no wonder I cannot understand the latest stock market pricing. People have gone mad.
 

otek

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Wait a minute, so you are hoping that one day Tesla has a 30x PE ratio? And you fully expect it to stay above 100x and still it’s a good investment?

Oh my… no wonder I cannot understand the latest stock market pricing. People have gone mad.

In 2023 calculated roughly that pe would maybe be around 56.8. I think it is unwise to assume Tesla stops at 2023. Net income probably does not stop growing.

Just to give further light why I Don't think its insane to Invest on high PE name provided that its growing 50 % per year and growing net income even more.

In 2025 I believe Net income has again tripled, from 2023 (operating leverage makes it so that if revenue doubles net income grows even more). In 2025, 56.8/3 would be 18.9 PE.
In 2028 I believe Net income could have tripled again. And in 2030 again maybe say doubles.

In 2030 PE would be with 900 mrd market cap 18.9/3/2 = 3.15.
So if Tesla's revenue grows 50 percent for 10 years and net income more than that due to operating leverage the stock would have PE of about 3.15 in 2030.

PE however probably is not 3. At least 30 for Tesla in my opinion due to new TAM expansions, new products etc. So stock would probably 10x.
However there might be hiccups on the path of growth, so Am givin more conservative 5x estimation for Tesla's stocks upside potential .

PE is good number in stable markets and mature companies. With best growth stocks (amazon, Tesla) it however is misleading.
 

Antifragile

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@otek
Appreciate you engaging in this conversation and understand where you are coming from. I feel like I've been there (I am clearly older than you).

You are seeking validation of a string of cumulative events. Telsa must grow 50% every year. Tesla's profits must remain the same or better. Tesla must have new products etc. With that your prediction of 10x seems to make sense. Your "conservative" view of 50% off this prediction is a problem we've seen before. When? A long, long time ago... in financial markets area it's so long that no one remembers that time.

In early 2008, the five-year default rate for AAA-rated collateralized debt obligations (CDO) was 0.12 per cent. The Standard & Poor (S&P) rating meant the predicted default occurred only 0.12 per cent of the time, but in late 2008 the default rate came closer to 28 per cent.

This gap between forecast and reality was a gigantic prediction error. In fact, the mortgage-backed securities were extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions and their defaults triggered the global financial crisis.
If S&P had assumed that CDOs were correlated, the impact on the financial industry would not have been as profound and maybe there would have been no global financial crisis of 2007-2008.

In retrospect, the assumption that defaults on some housing would not trigger other defaults seems obviously wrong. If the analysts at S&P had prepared to be wrong on this one assumption, their range of probable default rates would then have been too big to ignore.

Wrong predictions aren’t new and as the old joke goes, economists called nine out of the last six recessions correctly. So why is it so difficult to make predictions?

And that's my problem with current valuation of Tesla - EVERYTHING has to go right for you to make a tiny profit. The asymmetry of risk/reward probability is in the wrong direction, against you.

Hope you find this helpful. And remember, no one knows the future - even lotto is won by someone some of the time.

P.S. If you plan on staying in the investment space, I recommend Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle" book.
 

otek

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@otek
Appreciate you engaging in this conversation and understand where you are coming from. I feel like I've been there (I am clearly older than you).

You are seeking validation of a string of cumulative events. Telsa must grow 50% every year. Tesla's profits must remain the same or better. Tesla must have new products etc. With that your prediction of 10x seems to make sense. Your "conservative" view of 50% off this prediction is a problem we've seen before. When? A long, long time ago... in financial markets area it's so long that no one remembers that time.

In early 2008, the five-year default rate for AAA-rated collateralized debt obligations (CDO) was 0.12 per cent. The Standard & Poor (S&P) rating meant the predicted default occurred only 0.12 per cent of the time, but in late 2008 the default rate came closer to 28 per cent.

This gap between forecast and reality was a gigantic prediction error. In fact, the mortgage-backed securities were extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions and their defaults triggered the global financial crisis.
If S&P had assumed that CDOs were correlated, the impact on the financial industry would not have been as profound and maybe there would have been no global financial crisis of 2007-2008.

In retrospect, the assumption that defaults on some housing would not trigger other defaults seems obviously wrong. If the analysts at S&P had prepared to be wrong on this one assumption, their range of probable default rates would then have been too big to ignore.

Wrong predictions aren’t new and as the old joke goes, economists called nine out of the last six recessions correctly. So why is it so difficult to make predictions?

And that's my problem with current valuation of Tesla - EVERYTHING has to go right for you to make a tiny profit. The asymmetry of risk/reward probability is in the wrong direction, against you.

Hope you find this helpful. And remember, no one knows the future - even lotto is won by someone some of the time.

P.S. If you plan on staying in the investment space, I recommend Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle" book.

Thanks for book recommendation. Have listened one of Marks books long time ago, but not that one.

In General I think its good advice to stay away from hyped up growth stocks. If you Invest in them you better have good reason to. Because often times the hype creates valuation that already prices in a lot. And there are risks.
And there's very few companies that are truly extraordinary, not just in powerpoint but in reality.

However, I believe based on my research, that Tesla is one of those cases where reality actually is as good as hype or even better than that from investment perspective. I don't base this on hope.

But you must do your own due diligence. If you don't, then its often hope and feelings that drive your decisions.
 

vgfdshjn

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Thanks for book recommendation. Have listened one of Marks books long time ago, but not that one.

In General I think its good advice to stay away from hyped up growth stocks. If you Invest in them you better have good reason to. Because often times the hype creates valuation that already prices in a lot. And there are risks.
And there's very few companies that are truly extraordinary, not just in powerpoint but in reality.

However, I believe based on my research, that Tesla is one of those cases where reality actually is as good as hype or even better than that from investment perspective. I don't base this on hope.

But you must do your own due diligence. If you don't, then its often hope and feelings that drive your decisions.
You do base it on hype tho. Tesla's current market cap is higher than the whole automotive industry + Progressive + All State (Insurance) + Lyft + Uber + Dominion Energy. In the last few days Tesla's market cap increased by 2 times Ford+GM combined.
Meanwhile companies like Berkshire made more in profits than Tesla did in revenue. It reminds me of the dotcom bubble where everyone predicted that Cisco would basically own the world... They didn't and their stock is still not back at the level it was in 2000. Tread carefully. Also a 5x would mean a 5 trillion market cap.
Edit: I am not saying Tesla isn't a great company. It is, but just like Cisco the stock can detach itself from the underlying business.
 
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vgfdshjn

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Also back to the topic:
You mostly find undervalued stocks in areas where very few are digging. Unloved areas such as coal, oil, tobacco, silver/gold miners might have some great candidates which are undervalued.
Also frontier-markets like Uzbekistan can have great results. Keep in mind, stocks are not a Fastlane avenue. It takes lots of work to eek out small performance gains over an index fund.
 

Antifragile

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You do base it on hype tho. Tesla's current market cap is higher than the whole automotive industry + Progressive + All State (Insurance) + Lyft + Uber + Dominion Energy. In the last few days Tesla's market cap increased by 2 times Ford+GM combined.
Meanwhile companies like Berkshire made more in profits than Tesla did in revenue. It reminds me of the dotcom bubble where everyone predicted that Cisco would basically own the world... They didn't and their stock is still not back at the level it was in 2000. Tread carefully. Also a 5x would mean a 5 trillion market cap.
Edit: I am not saying Tesla isn't a great company. It is, but just like Cisco the stock can detach itself from the underlying business.

I have no horse in that race, so I could give a shit if Tesla later owns the world on mars or not. But I’ve been thinking why some people still believe so hard in it?
@otek came up with so much hopeum, everything must go right for his investment to make a dollar. Yet any one thing goes wrong and poof, like the dot com, like the 2008 and countless others. Elon isn’t a god. Just another dude that’s done a few great things in business.
So I wonder again, why do some people still follow this type of investment.

I think I got it.

"Motivated reasoning is the biased process we use to defend a position, ideology, or belief that we hold with emotional investment. Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies. We want them to win. We want to defend them. And other information or ideas are the enemy, and we want to shoot them down. —Julia Galef"

"Motivated reasoning is triggered by what psychologists call cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance theory was first proposed by Leon Festinger in 1957. He suggested that psychological discomfort results when we are presented with two pieces of information that conflict with each other." (Steven Novella, The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe)

once you’ve invested in Tesla a lot of money, it’s darn near impossible to reconcile that cognitive dissonance.

Again, I couldn’t care less about Tesla even if I tried. But from where I sit, the math on Tesla is some of the worst I’ve ever seen.
 
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otek

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I have no horse in that race, so I could give a shit if Tesla later owns the world on mars or not. But I’ve been thinking why some people still believe so hard in it?
@otek came up with so much hopeum, everything must go right for his investment to make a dollar. Yet any one thing goes wrong and poof, like the dot com, like the 2008 and countless others. Elon isn’t a god. Just another dude that’s done a few great things in business.
So I wonder again, why do some people still follow this type of investment.

I think I got it.

"Motivated reasoning is the biased process we use to defend a position, ideology, or belief that we hold with emotional investment. Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies. We want them to win. We want to defend them. And other information or ideas are the enemy, and we want to shoot them down. —Julia Galef"

"Motivated reasoning is triggered by what psychologists call cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance theory was first proposed by Leon Festinger in 1957. He suggested that psychological discomfort results when we are presented with two pieces of information that conflict with each other." (Steven Novella, The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe)

once you’ve invested in Tesla a lot of money, it’s darn near impossible to reconcile that cognitive dissonance.

Again, I couldn’t care less about Tesla even if I tried. But from where I sit, the math on Tesla is some of the worst I’ve ever seen.

We will see in 10 years time. Just see the 50 % growth with good margins scenario more likely than low growth. I don't have anything against different Views. Maybe Tesla would be a good short. However this side does not look as good from the probability standpoint.

Luckily studied the company more closely back in the day, I could have been short the TESLA stock based on headlines and seemingly crazy valuation.

Of course, can still be wrong and am willing to change my mind if there's evidence contradicting my Expectations
 

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We will see in 10 years time. Just see the 50 % growth with good margins scenario more likely than low growth. I don't have anything against different Views. Maybe Tesla would be a good short. However this side does not look as good from the probability standpoint.

Luckily studied the company more closely back in the day, I could have been short the TESLA stock based on headlines and seemingly crazy valuation.

Of course, can still be wrong and am willing to change my mind if there's evidence contradicting my Expectations
I just haven't seen you give an actual reason for any of your predictions.

There are no numbers to back up what you're saying. It's like crypto speculation: "Eh, maybe it will double next year." What?

Look at the fundamentals and financials of the company. It is losing money. Investors are just pouring more money into it. How can you accurately predict the future on that?

You know, sometimes things do skyrocket for no reason. Look at Doge coin. Look at beanie babies, pet rocks, fidget spinners. But did anybody use math and sophisticated analysis to predict that stuff? No...because the reasons behind it didn't make sense financially, it was all hype.

TSLA has good products. The company is priced crazy high though. Even Elon has said so.
 

otek

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I just haven't seen you give an actual reason for any of your predictions.

There are no numbers to back up what you're saying. It's like crypto speculation: "Eh, maybe it will double next year." What?

Look at the fundamentals and financials of the company. It is losing money. Investors are just pouring more money into it. How can you accurately predict the future on that?

You know, sometimes things do skyrocket for no reason. Look at Doge coin. Look at beanie babies, pet rocks, fidget spinners. But did anybody use math and sophisticated analysis to predict that stuff? No...because the reasons behind it didn't make sense financially, it was all hype.

TSLA has good products. The company is priced crazy high though. Even Elon has said so.

Tesla would need its own thread, if going to go through details of why I think the 50 percent growth numbers are likely. Don't want to turn this to Tesla bull case thread.
 

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There are no numbers to back up what you're saying. It's like crypto speculation: "Eh, maybe it will double next year." What?
Or… you can just be ok knowing that things are changing and fundamentals actually don’t make sense any more.

I don’t really believe the stock market follows actual fundamentals or earnings anymore. So you have to decide what type of investor you want to be.

You could have not bought any Amazon or Tesla stock in its early days because they lost money every year. But would you be better off now?

You could have not bought any crypto three years ago because you didn’t understand it, or you didn’t believe in it. But would you be better off now?

Personally I like Tesla and Elon musk. So I bought Tesla. Personally I don’t understand any crypto. But other people smarter than me understand it so I bought some crypto.

The question is what kind of investor are you? Are you sticking to the old rules of the 90s? Or are you changing with the times?
 

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Or… you can just be ok knowing that things are changing and fundamentals actually don’t make sense any more.

I don’t really believe the stock market follows actual fundamentals or earnings anymore. So you have to decide what type of investor you want to be.

You could have not bought any Amazon or Tesla stock in its early days because they lost money every year. But would you be better off now?

You could have not bought any crypto three years ago because you didn’t understand it, or you didn’t believe in it. But would you be better off now?

Personally I like Tesla and Elon musk. So I bought Tesla. Personally I don’t understand any crypto. But other people smarter than me understand it so I bought some crypto.

The question is what kind of investor are you? Are you sticking to the old rules of the 90s? Or are you changing with the times?
Well, I could have put my life savings into SHIB and be a billionaire right now, but tell me how the crystal ball was supposed to clue me in on that one?

Everyone is a great Monday morning quarter back.

You can of course make up any scenario of random investments and imagine the thousands of percent returns you have.

Is there some other metric you’re using for growth? That would be a lot more interesting than just saying “hey look at the past graph of this company that didn’t meet any fundamental criteria.”

Because for every one that grew 10 fold, there are more that went nowhere.

Yes I do have a portion of investments in stuff like ARKK, TSLA, TWLO, SHOP, etc that just seem to grow without regard for financial measurements. But to me, real investing should have some sort of mathematics behind it. So what’s the math you use to determine growth?

***
it’s really funny you mention the 90’s, because the end of the 90’s was defined by this rampant non-measurable speculation, and led to the tech bubble.

So ironically, the 90’s were the opposite of what you’re claiming I do, and more like the current environment!
 
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biophase

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Well, I could have put my life savings into SHIBA and be a billionaire right now, but tell me how the crystal ball was supposed to clue me in on that one?

Everyone is a great Monday morning quarter back.

You can of course make up any scenario of random investments and imagine the thousands of percent returns you have.

Is there some other metric you’re using for growth? That would be a lot more interesting than just saying “hey look at the past graph of this company that didn’t meet any fundamental criteria.”

Because for every one that grew 10 fold, there are more that went nowhere.

Yes I do have a portion of investments in stuff like ARKK, TSLA, TWLO, SHOP, etc that just seem to grow without regard for financial measurements. But to me, real investing should have some sort of mathematics behind it. So what’s the math you use to determine growth?

***
it’s really funny you mention the 90’s, because the end of the 90’s was defined by this rampant non-measurable speculation, and led to the tech bubble.

So ironically, the 90’s were the opposite of what you’re claiming I do, and more like the current environment!

I probably should have said, early nineties. LOL My first ever stock was GAP which I bought in 92. I do remember the dot com bubble.

I just used 2 examples of large tech companies that really had negative earnings early on. Would you have invested on AMZN early on? Or what year would AMZN have been a good buy in your opinion based on fundamentals?

What I'm saying is that "real investing" with mathematics may still work but if that is all you rely on, you may get returns worse than if you had sprinkled in some speculative/gambling stocks in there too. The stock market doesn't move due to mathematics anymore. It moves on tweets, memes, excitement and emotions. It kinds of always did, but back then news was much harder to get. I remember people trying the penny stocks pump and dump on alt.stocks newsgroups.

IMO, A portfolio with only pure fundamental old school stocks is not going to beat the return of a mixture of stocks. So yes, I have some TSLA in my portfolio, I have some AMC also along with Mastercard and P&G. Some stocks I can't tell you why I have them.
 

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I probably should have said, early nineties. LOL My first ever stock was GAP which I bought in 92. I do remember the dot com bubble.

I just used 2 examples of large tech companies that really had negative earnings early on. Would you have invested on AMZN early on? Or what year would AMZN have been a good buy in your opinion based on fundamentals?

What I'm saying is that "real investing" with mathematics may still work but if that is all you rely on, you may get returns worse than if you had sprinkled in some speculative/gambling stocks in there too. The stock market doesn't move due to mathematics anymore. It moves on tweets, memes, excitement and emotions. It kinds of always did, but back then news was much harder to get. I remember people trying the penny stocks pump and dump on alt.stocks newsgroups.

IMO, A portfolio with only pure fundamental old school stocks is not going to beat the return of a mixture of stocks. So yes, I have some TSLA in my portfolio, I have some AMC also along with Mastercard and P&G. Some stocks I can't tell you why I have them.
See, I don’t think you’re characterizing what I do correctly. There’s nothing “old school” about reading financial data.

Would I have bought Amazon when it was a brand new company making losses? No. I’m not going to lie to you to pretend I know everything, that would be stupid.

But guess what? I do own some Amazon because they are a tremendous company with phenomenal margins, return on equity, etc. and they would have qualified based on *actual financial data* decades ago, and you would have made a tremendous return.

This is a case of “ask instead of assume” - because you’re assuming some sort of outdated model whereas really these are just timeless practices.

Some things don’t change: supply and demand, ROI, debt vs. equity, etc. Everybody wants to say “this time is different” and the worst words in investing are “if you had of bought X in year Y you’d have ___”

If you bought GameStop right before Reddit went insane and you made a huge return that’s great. But that was gambling, not investing. Good luck reproducing that.
 
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For reference...

Amazon (still, even in 2021) has outstanding return on equity and it also has insanely low debt levels. The first year that this became true (probably back in the early 2000’s) would have been the absolute best time from a value perspective to invest in Amazon - because of the clear growth opportunities.

A company that does nothing but burn money, however, tells you nothing.

(looks like Amazon was first profitable in 2001 and had an over *5000%* return on equity in 2005. Wow!)
 

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Or… you can just be ok knowing that things are changing and fundamentals actually don’t make sense any more.

I don’t really believe the stock market follows actual fundamentals or earnings anymore. So you have to decide what type of investor you want to be.

You could have not bought any Amazon or Tesla stock in its early days because they lost money every year. But would you be better off now?

You could have not bought any crypto three years ago because you didn’t understand it, or you didn’t believe in it. But would you be better off now?

Personally I like Tesla and Elon musk. So I bought Tesla. Personally I don’t understand any crypto. But other people smarter than me understand it so I bought some crypto.

The question is what kind of investor are you? Are you sticking to the old rules of the 90s? Or are you changing with the times?

So “this time is different”? Scariest four words in investing!
Yes you can still participate in Crypto, Amazon and ignore Tesla and make great returns.
Early 90s had a CRE induced recession. Right before Dot Com bubble everyone claimed real assets (like real estate) are dead and tech only!!! This time is different! Yada yada yada.

no thanks.

Edit: to clarify - I own some f-u money in Crypro knowing full well it’s a gamble. I like my odds. I’m not saying don’t invest in Tesla, I’m saying math seems bad. Gamble in whatever you want. Just don’t pretend like there is a logical great reasoning for buying Tesla stock right now.
 
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biophase

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So “this time is different”? Scariest four words in investing!
Yes you can still participate in Crypto, Amazon and ignore Tesla and make great returns.
Early 90s had a CRE induced recession. Right before Dot Com bubble everyone claimed real assets (like real estate) are dead and tech only!!! This time is different! Yada yada yada.

no thanks.

Edit: to clarify - I own some f-u money in Crypro knowing full well it’s a gamble. I like my odds. I’m not saying don’t invest in Tesla, I’m saying math seems bad. Gamble in whatever you want. Just don’t pretend like there is a logical great reasoning for buying Tesla stock right now.

I'm not saying this time it's different. I'm saying that things are changing. I just don't believe the stock market moves based on fundamentals any more.

I don't think there's a logical reason to buy TSLA right now. But I didn't think there was one at $800 or $600 or $400 either.

Also, how do you judge what a good investment is? What's the timeframe? If I buy TSLA today at $1100 and it goes to $2000 in 2023 and then drops to $500 in 2025 and then goes to $3000 in 2030. Was it a good investment for me or you? Doesn't it depend on the person and who sold when?
 

DoingDeals

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Jim Cramer has been having a vendetta against Tesla for anyone still listening to him.
 
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DoingDeals

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DO NOT visit WallStreetBets for advice ever at all.
 

thechosen1

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Also, how do you judge what a good investment is? What's the timeframe? If I buy TSLA today at $1100 and it goes to $2000 in 2023 and then drops to $500 in 2025 and then goes to $3000 in 2030. Was it a good investment for me or you? Doesn't it depend on the person and who sold when?
That’s precisely the problem.

If there’s no way to measure if it’s a good investment, it’s more like gambling. The word is speculation.

Think about how you analyze a real estate deal. I know you’re really good at that and have solid criteria for it.

edit: like @Antifragile said, the thread is about undervalued stocks. You said yourself in this quote that you don't know what TSLA is worth, so...how are you going to say if it is undervalued or overvalued? By definition, you need to determine the value of the company.
 
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Antifragile

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The thread is about listing undervalued stocks. @biophase if you believe all stocks to be overvalued, its fine. Lately, I feel stock market in general to be ”expensive”.
 

DoingDeals

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My business partner was getting 15% the past 2 years in the stock market portfolio & I've told her it's not going to keep happening.
 

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