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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Antifragile

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the language media uses is always so dramatic. "Ether nosedives 6%". For crypto a 6% is a not a nosedive. LOL
 
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Leo Hendrix

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Does anyone use or recommend services that pay you an interest on your crypto?

I’ve seen some up to 6% APY for ETH.
I'm using eleven.finance ( DFYN & WETH and I'll probably stake some Sushi later.)
 

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Btw. What is your prediction about the lowest BTC and ETH level before the next cycle?
I don’t think we ll see the 500 for ETH or 10000 for BTC.
 

Timmy C

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Btw. What is your prediction about the lowest BTC and ETH level before the next cycle?
I don’t think we ll see the 500 for ETH or 10000 for BTC.
I say 780 and 14700.

No one knows.

I reckon bottom of the cycle is between 40-60k for btc.

My guess is as worthless as anyone elses.
 

Ing

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No one knows.

I reckon bottom of the cycle is between 40-60k for btc.

My guess is as worthless as anyone elses.
40k can’t be the bottom any more. Or don’t I understand you?
Here in Germany BTC already is down to 33 k
 
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Ing

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Ing

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Why do you think so?
imo in the running cycle its all a bit faster.
Rising starten 5 months after halfing. Not 11(2012halfing) and not 12(2016).
Max was after 12 months(2012) 17months(2016)
That could be a sign that this time its later.
The following min was 33 and 30 months after halfing.

When you analoge it to the running cycle the beginning had to be aboutJune2021, the max at about 11/2021 and the following min about 12/2022

Now as it began faster, only 5 months after halfing, my opinion is, that max came earlier, too. And min is anywhere sooner than 12/2022.

I think the Covod stay at home story accellerated the whole cycle. So even with the max at 5/2021 the chart would fit into the Kitchin cyclus.

That are only a few thoughts I made!

What are your thoughts, which let you think the max of this cycle isn’t reached Jet?
 
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Frinys

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Why do you think so?
imo in the running cycle its all a bit faster.
Rising starten 5 months after halfing. Not 11(2012halfing) and not 12(2016).
What do you define as rising?
Bitcoin reached ATH approximately 7 - 8 months after the halving in 2016, and 6 - 7 months this run.
Max was after 12 months(2012) 17months(2016)
That could be a sign that this time its later.
It does make sense that the bull runs get stretched as Bitcoin becomes more and more popular. People are no longer dependent on Bitcoin-hype to hear about Bitcoin, they were in 2016 and definitely in 2012.
The following min was 33 and 30 months after halfing.

When you analoge it to the running cycle the beginning had to be aboutJune2021, the max at about 11/2021 and the following min about 12/2022
I don't think there is much to learn from looking at the local minimums. The 2020 minimum was due to the Covid flash crash and was not very directly related to crypto. If you are looking for a good entry, I think it is much better to do sentiment analysis than looking at previous bottoms.
Now as it began faster, only 5 months after halfing, my opinion is, that max came earlier, too. And min is anywhere sooner than 12/2022.

I think the Covod stay at home story accellerated the whole cycle. So even with the max at 5/2021 the chart would fit into the Kitchin cyclus.
It may have accelerated everything. But just as likely, it has inflated the buildup, making it appears as a cycle top without being one. I think the latter is more likely.
That are only a few thoughts I made!

What are your thoughts, which let you think the max of this cycle isn’t reached Jet?
I expect this bull run to be over, but suspect that it is not. I think we are exiting the buildup, and that we will see a higher ATH before 2021 is over, but it may very well be otherwise. In either case, I'm prepared.
 

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hey guys, I thought id throw my two cents into the mix about the current state of the crypto markets. I created this post a little while back, but it is still relevant right now.

There are many scenarios that could potentially play out in the coming days and weeks. Here are the main ones you need to look out for. I'll also address some of the misinformation that is currently going on in the crypto space

Watch Bitcoin's 28k - 33k Price range. The 28-33k range is the last major support zone before bitcoin crashes hard. Currently, we are in that range. If it goes below 28k, we could probably expect it to go down further to 24k or 20k If it goes above 33k - 40k, we can expect it to go back up to test previous high levels.

E4cDjixWUAMe_gb


Let's now talk about the Crypto Death Cross. This is when the 50 Moving average crosses the 200 moving average. This is a very bearish signal & usually indicates further downside. This has happened on the daily chart

E4cCvZoXwAUdYRv
Since i made this picture a little while back, the cross has gone down further. Hopefully, we can see a reversal, but so far that is not the case.

The bitcoin daily 200 EMA & weekly 21 EMA are major levels of resistance/support. It currently sits at the price level of 39k - 40k. If we are going to continue to be bullish, bitcoin must break above this level to continue to rise

E4cEQGdXIAMgTQ_

(older image - will update at a later date)

Let's talk about the Crypto Cycle and asset bubble. The image below represents a typical asset bubble for an investment. Many people believe we are at the beginning of this cycle where it says bear trap. Others believe we are at the end of the cycle near fear

E4cEzCNWQAcZNwg


Many believe, including me, that bitcoin still has a lot more upside to go as it becomes globally adopted. It will probably take longer to pump to those super high levels though. There is always a chance it could crash further. Your best bet is to put together a risk management strategy to protect yourself

OBERT KIYOSAKI The godfather of money is waiting for bitcoin to go to 24k before he jumps into the market The 24k level is the next level of support. if bitcoin goes below the 28k - 33k range we mentioned earlier

E4cFRPyWQAEapNh


Bitcoin Determines The Market. Currently, bitcoin dictates the direction of the market. Whatever happens to it will affect all of the other altcoins.

Etherium, Cardano, PolygonMatic, TRON, Dot, Vetchain, etc. They will all be affected depending on what happens with Bitcoin

Some Potential Strategies To Survive

STRATEGY 1

You could HODL through this crazy time and if bitcoin recovers in a few months, this will be a distant memory However, if it does crash hard and doesn't recover, you will lose a lot of money that you won't get back

STRATEGY 2

You can cash out your profits now. When the market decides what it's doing, you can buy back in. You'll either buy in at a lower price or you'll buy in a little higher than where you sold. Either way, you'll be protected. You do risk some potential profits however if you cash out, so keep that in mind

STRATEGY 3

You can cash out partial profits and leave some in the markets and see what happens. You can then implement strategy 2 to buy in lower or a little higher. This could be the safest option given the insanity of the market at the moment

There is no right or wrong answer here, and this is all my opinion. Do what you must to protect your investments and what you feel comfortable with. Risk management is key

We're in very tricky times when it comes to crypto and it really could go either way.

I hope some of you found this post valuable.
 

Mr. Tycoon

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You could convert this post into a 1-page pdf, add a couple of images and a cover, and sell it as "The One Page Investing Guide" for at least $49,99.

Nobody could argue that the advice doesn't worth 100x that in the long term :D
LOL. I will argue. You know you could use Mr. google instead to pay for this..
 

Mr. Tycoon

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How f*cking ridiculous is it that we've started burning absolute heaps of energy to produce fake internet money?

I fail to see how crypto is advancing society rather than throwing us back to the stone age of trade.
How much did your portfolio went down so far?
 
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Mr. Tycoon

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Didn't expect to trigger a lot of you bitcoin fanboys like that, sorry, but none of you explained what value it is actually capable of providing to our society? You all just attempted to either ridicule my statement, or argue that burning excessive amounts of fossil fuels is somehow a good thing..?

Mining bitcoin consumes an absolutely agregious amount of resources. Why don't one of you try telling me what problems (that someone actually has,) that bitcoin is solving, or is going to solve in the near future? Because as of right now, bitcoin exists solely as an investment vehicle for investors.
you bitcoin fanboys like that, sorry, but none of you explained what value it is actually capable of providing to our society?
Do you own a smart phone ? Good.. now open Google and type in: HARD MONEY BITCOIN. you welcome !
 

Mr. Tycoon

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ETH development is obviously more centralized than Bitcoin (it has to be to develop with any sense of urgency) but it's incorrect to say Vitalik and his friends are calling the shots. ETH development is pretty decentralised,
What a joke. Jeff Bezos can shut ETH by tomorrow morning after he eats his breakfast.
 

dgr

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LOL. I will argue. You know you could use Mr. google instead to pay for this..

That wasn't the point.

btw, you can say that for 99,9% of the paid content. That doesn't make it less valuable (if you apply it)
 
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dgr

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What are you paying for exactly?
IMO when you buy some info product you usually don't pay just for the info, but for the support, the network, or for the accountability that gives you spending money.

EDIT: and also for the time saved having the information in a good format and organized. That is huge.
 
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Antifragile

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Copying from an email from Wednesday and worth a read for you all:

Written by Allison Reichel
The Enigma of Modern Money
Happy Wednesday everyone!

You might notice that the rest of this week’s newsletters are a little different.

I’m headed to Paris to speak at ETH-cc on “Crypto-nomics and the Potential for a New ‘Digital Gold’ Standard,” and as I’m preparing for my talk, I thought it would be helpful to make this week’s newsletters relevant, for both myself and for those unfamiliar with the foundations of money.

After this next week and a half, you can expect to go back to semi-normal content (but I’m an economist so is anything really normal?)

My goal is to focus on some underlying themes governing how money came to be and explore common misconceptions in terms of crypto and monetary regimes, working from the origins of money to the world we live in now.

Today, I want to focus on the origin of money - both in the literal sense and in terms of Karl Menger’s famous 1892 paper On the Origin of Money.

Money As A Phenomenon

Karl Menger called the evolution of money the “enigmatic phenomenon of money,” due to the uncoordinated nature of its existence.

But jargon aside, what does that even mean?

Money did not come to be through any rule. No one person was responsible for the creation or implementation of money.

The mere concept of money emerged from uncoordinated actions of individuals.

Exchange has been around since the dawn of time. Individuals wished to trade because specialization meant that they couldn’t be the sole producer of all of their needs, and so barter was born.

But specialization meant barter was tough, too. Individuals needed something more universal that they could exchange for a wide variety of goods and services.

And thus, barter was replaced by commodities.

Tangible items with a relatively universal value that could be exchanged for a variety of goods and services with more ease than individual goods being traded against each other.

For later discussions of the role of cryptocurrency, what’s important to remember here is that money emerged out of people. Not one person or one entity, but society as a whole.

Government simply built regulation around this phenomenon - it did not create it. Government simply formalized it.

So if money emerged from people, then what economic rules govern it?

The “Rules” of Money

There’s no formal rule book for the creation of money. Money did not come from law, it came from uncoordinated actors

Nonetheless, Menger and economists today have a set of guiding parameters by which the usefulness of a particular commodity or money can be assessed.

While Menger commented directly on commodities, these parameters are often attributed to money, and can be broken down into three categories:

The transactional ability of money,
The transportability of money, and
The time constraints of money.

The transactional ability of money essentially measures the market forces that impact the commodity. A money with high transactional ability has governance in place that makes it easily accessible, but still valuable for the consumer.

The market forces that impact transactability include demand, supply, purchasing power, divisibility, regulatory constraints, and the size of the market.

The transportability of money assesses the ability of money to move through the economy both physically and with respect to regulation posed by the government.

Transportability can be assessed through looking at money’s divisibility, cost of transportation and storage, development of transportation, the organization of markets, and restrictions or regulations affecting trade.

And lastly, the time constraints of money measure the longevity of money, and the ability of individuals to trust that their money

This requires need-permanence (knowing money today will be wanted tomorrow), physical durability, and assessing the cost of storage, the rate of interest (or depreciation), the cyclical nature of the market, the measurement of time preferences and any political or social restrictions.

In addition, over time these assessment parameters have been broken down and grouped together into what are known as the seven characteristics of money: durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability.

Money Today

It’s clear to see how the USD is governed by each of these principles. As the global reserve currency it satisfies the requirements of demand, and with the Federal Reserve and federal government’s ability to generate it, maintains its supply.

Dollars are durable to a reasonable degree and can be used many times before replacement, they are easily portable, can be divided into smaller units, uniform in value within the same time horizon, “limited” in supply by the government, and are accepted in the United States as legal tender, and easily convertible at foreign exchanges.

Simply put, money today is centralized.

But all money originally came to be by uncoordinated efforts.

Interestingly, given this relatively commonly accepted economic origin, it’s easy to see how cryptocurrency could evolve into something more representative of money.

So far, this sounds simple. But on just why the economic man would be willing to accept such a standard of money, Menger probes deeper:

“But that every economic unit in a nation should be ready to exchange his goods for little metal disks apparently useless as such, or for documents representing the latter, is a procedure so opposed to the ordinary course of things, that we cannot well wonder if even a distinguished thinker like Savigny finds it downright ‘mysterious.’”

The exchange of goods is almost a natural instinct.

Putting trust in some other medium of exchange that holds no value on its own is the opposite of a natural instinct.

Yet we live in a world governed by money and paper currencies that hold value only because we give said papers and currencies value.

Contrary to what it may seem, the origin of money is social, it is not made or born of any state-institution.

There is value in our currencies because we trust in each other, not because we trust in some government or institution.

We trust that our money has value because we trust that the farmer who distributes his crop to the grocery store will continue to produce our food more efficiently than we could ourselves, and we trust that the barber will continue to cut our hair better than we could, and that the money we use today will be accepted by all of these moving individuals, and allow us to seamlessly facilitate exchange.

The misconception is that our money has value because the government says so or because we trust in the government. Money emerged because of society, and because we trust each
other, so it has value.

Where the government does have an impact on our money is in terms of regulatory constraints and monetary intervention.

Regulation that facilitates exchange in the modern day includes governments deeming a currency a legal tender, and centralizing the production of physical dollars.

This allows for us to trust that our dollars are real and that they will be widely accepted, so that we can trust each other in producing goods and services.

We don’t trust that our government gives our currency value, we trust that it doesn't take value from it.

When the government begins to show a pattern of devaluation, it is natural for society to look elsewhere.

As Menger said:

“... Still we are confronted by this phenomenon, still we have to explain why it is that the economic man is ready to accept a certain kind of commodity, even if he does not need it, or if his need of it is already supplied…”

Interestingly, we are facing those very same issues today.

The difference is that the answer to why the economic man is ready to accept a certain kind of commodity or currency if one is already supplied is because the one that is supplied is proving to have vast inefficiencies.
Happy Wednesday!

– Allison Reichel
 
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Antifragile

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AceVentures

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What's easier than even that are the new Visa and Mastercards offered by the likes of FTX, Binance, crypto.com, etc.

These exchanges are the newest forms of banks with increasing channels for communicating with vendors. Visa/Mastercard is just the easiest method I can think of right now.

Custom crypto payment channels face regulatory and infrastructure hurdles that will delay adoption - kycd payments would be preferred by merchants to non-kycd payments hence why I think these cards + existing payment rails will work fine in the short term.
 

Mr. Tycoon

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I’m headed to Paris to speak at ETH-cc on “Crypto-nomics and the Potential for a New ‘Digital Gold’ Standard,”
What's the point of this letter? ETH and cryptos are exit scams. Not a one word here about BTC which is the real gold 2.0 - all this f@ckers are living off BTC's success ~the only real decentralized and scarce unit in the whole universe, and the upcoming New WORLD RESERVE.
 
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Ocean Man

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I've been staking for a few weeks now and it's neat being able to earn $$$ without having to do anything! And the money earned, instantly goes back into the staking pool so it just compounds and compounds.
 

Mr. Tycoon

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I've been staking for a few weeks now and it's neat being able to earn $$$ without having to do anything! And the money earned, instantly goes back into the staking pool so it just compounds and compounds.
''few weeks, do nothing, instantly ,compounds and compounds'' - wow this sounds super legit, until it doesn't.
 
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Ocean Man

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Antifragile

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''few weeks, do nothing, instantly ,compounds and compounds'' - wow this sounds super legit, until it doesn't.
If you are trying for a$hole of the day, you got it. The crown is yours.
 

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