Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[MTF]

Are you officially a BTC convert now?

Lol no. I educated myself and now keep track of it but for the time being it's not for me.

 

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[JamesQB8]

Interesting stat to keep an eye on. I've taken some profit as everything has been blowing up recently. Starting to get those calls/texts from friends asking how to buy bitcoin and whether they should buy a cheaper coin because they missed the bitcoin boat.

I'm still holding a large position but I feel better mentally for taking some chips off the table in what feels like media mania.

 

[Timmy C]

the central bank ponzi is destroying future opportunity for younger people. The rich are loving it, they can buy all the assets.
The money you earned and saved is worth less and less every day.

What you earned is currently being diluted in the name of "safety".

Bitcoin is a very important creation for this reason.

Gold has become an elitist store of value and too manipulated.

In what universe does gold do poorly in this economic climate?

It's in the government and banks best interest to keep the price down.

 

[Sethamus]

@csalvato @MTF
One of Us

 

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[Sethamus]

Gold has become an elitist store of value and too manipulated.

In what universe does gold do poorly in this economic climate?

It's in the government and banks best interest to keep the price down.

So if someone joined this thread and had no clue on what to do with their money and didn’t fully understand crypto yet(say they were still educating themself) nor wanted to buy in until the bull run is over. Would you agree they should buy gold over cash?

Just curious yours and others opinions since this thread is heavy crypto...I know what @Kak would say. I have some crypto, but I might have too much cash and trying to decide if I should put it in more gold or crypto at the current market rates.

 

[Timmy C]

So if someone joined this thread and had no clue on what to do with their money and didn’t fully understand crypto yet(say they were still educating themself) nor wanted to buy in until the bull run is over. Would you agree they should buy gold over cash?

Just curious yours and others opinions since this thread is heavy crypto...I know what @Kak would say. I have some crypto, but I might have too much cash and trying to decide if I should put it in more gold or crypto at the current market rates.

Well it depends on what you have. Investing a pittance won't be worth it anyway.

So just eat the dirt if you dont have any money to protect to begin with.

Or better yet, go all in on crypto. At least your pittance might actually make you something worth protecting.

 

[mguerra]

I would put all my cash in crypto doesn't matter the amount.

In fact, this is what I did.

Better ride the run and accumulate some real FU money and then convert it to fiat as you please - than to become stuck in a broke monetary system thats insustainable for too much long.

I don't see why remain stuck in government money deep into this digital revolution we are living. Everything points to digital stuff in our everyday lives.

If you believe in the technology and observe the cultural/societal trend directions it's a really simple decision, IMO.

This time we'll see a correction with a mucher higher low than in 2017. In 2021 half of the world will be awake to Bitcoin and blockchain industries. As a high volatile asset, obviously will be huge corrections.

Adressing that and managing yourself and your fear/greed glans here is critical.

Just do your study, have a strategy for yourself and don't be the one holding the bag when the correction comes.

 

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[Timmy C]

I would put all my cash in crypto doesn't matter the amount.

In fact, this is what I did.

Better ride the run and accumulate some real FU money and then convert it to fiat as you please - than to become stuck in a broke monetary system thats insustainable for too much long.

I don't see why remain stuck in government money deep into this digital revolution we are living. Everything points to digital stuff in our everyday lives.

If you believe in the technology and observe the cultural/societal trend directions it's a really simple decision, IMO.

This time we'll see a correction with a mucher higher low than in 2017. In 2021 half of the world will be awake to Bitcoin and blockchain industries. As a high volatile asset, obviously will be huge corrections.

Adressing that and managing yourself and your fear/greed glans here is critical.

Just do your study, have a strategy for yourself and don't be the one holding the bag when the correction comes.

I didn't quite go that far, although most of my net worth is in crypto.

But I see that side as well.

The current system is very broken.

 

[Timmy C]

$3 trillion stimulus package on top of the $1.9 trillion COVID package. These lunatics are going to print so much money, well they already have.

Gambling on crypto is less risky than gambling on government money these days.

 

[Raja]

@Timmy C
here is one of my concerns for the sustainability of bitcoin or any cryptocurrency for that matter, wanted to know your views on it?

what about electricity waste?? the bitcoin has to be mined to successfully log the transaction.

the upside is that it's bulletproof, but the downside can be we have collectively wasted the energy to power the entire nation, and the consumption will only increase.

how is this consumption of energy sustainable? as a programmer, you know that if nobody mines that crypto becomes worthless.

Please note: I am not a trader or anything. I used to play games using bitcoins and gambled them all away(in 2012, when I was a kid 14-15 y/o, now that I remember clearly) which I mined with my crappy machine and there were sites that were filled with ads and gave me 5 satoshis every hour. never purchased them

 

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[Timmy C]

@Timmy C
here is one of my concerns for the sustainability of bitcoin or any cryptocurrency for that matter, wanted to know your views on it?

what about electricity waste?? the bitcoin has to be mined to successfully log the transaction.

the upside is that it's bulletproof, but the downside can be we have collectively wasted the energy to power the entire nation, and the consumption will only increase.

how is this consumption of energy sustainable? as a programmer, you know that if nobody mines that crypto becomes worthless.

Please note: I am not a trader or anything. I used to play games using bitcoins and gambled them all away(in 2012, when I was a kid 14-15 y/o, now that I remember clearly) which I mined with my crappy machine and there were sites that were filled with ads and gave me 5 satoshis every hour. never purchased them

The electricity waste thing is absolutely a garbage narrative.

More is used by clothes dryers worldwide, much more yet you dont hear these hypocrites protesting to ban dryers to save the world.

 

[Timmy C]

@Timmy C
here is one of my concerns for the sustainability of bitcoin or any cryptocurrency for that matter, wanted to know your views on it?

what about electricity waste?? the bitcoin has to be mined to successfully log the transaction.

the upside is that it's bulletproof, but the downside can be we have collectively wasted the energy to power the entire nation, and the consumption will only increase.

how is this consumption of energy sustainable? as a programmer, you know that if nobody mines that crypto becomes worthless.

Please note: I am not a trader or anything. I used to play games using bitcoins and gambled them all away(in 2012, when I was a kid 14-15 y/o, now that I remember clearly) which I mined with my crappy machine and there were sites that were filled with ads and gave me 5 satoshis every hour. never purchased them

What about the energy wasted by the crony banking system?

Did you also calculate that into your equation?

 

[Timmy C]

@Timmy C
here is one of my concerns for the sustainability of bitcoin or any cryptocurrency for that matter, wanted to know your views on it?

what about electricity waste?? the bitcoin has to be mined to successfully log the transaction.

the upside is that it's bulletproof, but the downside can be we have collectively wasted the energy to power the entire nation, and the consumption will only increase.

how is this consumption of energy sustainable? as a programmer, you know that if nobody mines that crypto becomes worthless.

Please note: I am not a trader or anything. I used to play games using bitcoins and gambled them all away(in 2012, when I was a kid 14-15 y/o, now that I remember clearly) which I mined with my crappy machine and there were sites that were filled with ads and gave me 5 satoshis every hour. never purchased them

The sustainably of cars as they would kill the world was a strong narrative to the horse and carriage industry used then as well I bet.

 

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[Raja]

The sustainably of cars as they would kill the world was a strong narrative to the horse and carriage industry used then as well I bet.

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend you

 

[Timmy C]

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend you

Haha, im not offended man.

Might have come of that way as im a bit pissed of in general at other things.

Not related to you, dont stress.

It's clear you can pick up on this in text ha ha.

 

[Raja]

My views are that it is absolutely revolutionary technology.
And due to gaining popularity mining hash would consume a lot more power, not to mention scarcity with each block mined.

My thought was that energy consumption (which will grow exponentially) could be used for more effective and efficient purpose.

 

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[AceVentures]

My views are that it is absolutely revolutionary technology.
And due to gaining popularity mining hash would consume a lot more power, not to mention scarcity with each block mined.

My thought was that energy consumption (which will grow exponentially) could be used for more effective and efficient purpose.

What I appreciate is the relationship between power consumption and value delivery to the network.

The network rewards hashpower - hashpower becomes a revenue source tied to power consumption - margins increase with more efficient power consumption, long-term incentives encourage sustainability/predictability of the power source (fossil fuels are rather volatile in price and have an innate limit to the source, never-mind environmental impacts and geopolitical constraints within that market).

Climate change is encouraged and rewarded within a system like this - so with the proper incentives in place it actually makes me more optimistic about power consumption in the future.

 

[Sethamus]

Well it depends on what you have. Investing a pittance won't be worth it anyway.

So just eat the dirt if you dont have any money to protect to begin with.

Or better yet, go all in on crypto. At least your pittance might actually make you something worth protecting.

It wasn’t a question about accumulating money and trying to get FU money more of a better store of value vs cash. Also pittance to one person is a whole different value to another. It could be $1000, $10,000, or $100,000+ that someone has and needs moved between assets and net worth difference on this forum is vast.

From your stance (or perceived from the comments I quoted) on gold and how it is an elitist commodity. Would it not would make sense to someone who just started reading this thread or possibly even myself who has read every post in the thread that if they want a safe bet on store of value they should go with gold over cash and crypto? Only gold over crypto because less volatile of a market. I understand you are a no seller at any cost and that goes with your beliefs that crypto will be the biggest growth, but there are possibly many who have accumulated wealth and just want a consistent value store against inflation.

I have cash, real estate, gold, and crypto so I’m diverse and didn’t really ask this question for myself. More for someone just wondering into this thread after hearing the main stream media hype about this brand new thing called crypto and how it is real now and thinking they need to do something with all that cash in the bank they thought was valuable.

 

[Timmy C]

It wasn’t a question about accumulating money and trying to get FU money more of a better store of value vs cash. Also pittance to one person is a whole different value to another. It could be $1000, $10,000, or $100,000+ that someone has and needs moved between assets and net worth difference on this forum is vast.

From your stance (or perceived from the comments I quoted) on gold and how it is an elitist commodity. Would it not would make sense to someone who just started reading this thread or possibly even myself who has read every post in the thread that if they want a safe bet on store of value they should go with gold over cash and crypto? Only gold over crypto because less volatile of a market. I understand you are a no seller at any cost and that goes with your beliefs that crypto will be the biggest growth, but there are possibly many who have accumulated wealth and just want a consistent value store against inflation.

I have cash, real estate, gold, and crypto so I’m diverse and didn’t really ask this question for myself. More for someone just wondering into this thread after hearing the main stream media hype about this brand new thing called crypto and how it is real now and thinking they need to do something with all that cash in the bank they thought was valuable.

Well, no I wouldn't recommend gold, personally.

It has barely moved in a decade, even in an inflationary environment such as this where it should have excelled it has failed, and failed spectacularly.

I think you could buy anything except gold right now and make money.

Asset inflation is happening.

 

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[Timmy C]

It wasn’t a question about accumulating money and trying to get FU money more of a better store of value vs cash. Also pittance to one person is a whole different value to another. It could be $1000, $10,000, or $100,000+ that someone has and needs moved between assets and net worth difference on this forum is vast.

From your stance (or perceived from the comments I quoted) on gold and how it is an elitist commodity. Would it not would make sense to someone who just started reading this thread or possibly even myself who has read every post in the thread that if they want a safe bet on store of value they should go with gold over cash and crypto? Only gold over crypto because less volatile of a market. I understand you are a no seller at any cost and that goes with your beliefs that crypto will be the biggest growth, but there are possibly many who have accumulated wealth and just want a consistent value store against inflation.

I have cash, real estate, gold, and crypto so I’m diverse and didn’t really ask this question for myself. More for someone just wondering into this thread after hearing the main stream media hype about this brand new thing called crypto and how it is real now and thinking they need to do something with all that cash in the bank they thought was valuable.

I mean, I wouldn't recommend anyone do anything just what im doing.

The best investment in the world is useless in the hands of one with no conviction.

 

[Sethamus]

My views are that it is absolutely revolutionary technology.
And due to gaining popularity mining hash would consume a lot more power, not to mention scarcity with each block mined.

My thought was that energy consumption (which will grow exponentially) could be used for more effective and efficient purpose.

Check out Aces reply. Besides gold stocks, think about the amount of physical gold bought and stored by individuals at 7+ trillion dollar market cap. The energy cost to originally mine, refine, and the current cost transport between buyers and sellers continuously on a market that big expends tons of power. Why is no one adding up the total energy cost for that commodity and only crypto?

 

[Kak]

@Raja I totally see where you are getting at with the mining thing, but your argument has a bit of a flaw... It is profitable to mine. As long as it is profitable to mine, people will. Just like manufacturing anything or mining real gold. It takes resources, and it will only take those resources if it makes sense to do so.

A collapse in price would be what drives the miners away, not the other way around. The only way I could see this not being the case is if there was a metroic rise in an alternative coin that drove miners to more profitable waters elsewhere. That would require people holding Bitcoin and also investing in the new meteor coin simultaneously.

Guess what else that does? It drives down the mining competition for Bitcoin and makes it more profitable than it was. So it is just not going to happen. The miners aren‘t steering the ship. Demand is.

@Sethamus I saw your post a few pages back and I will give you my input.

Crypto is an alternative asset class. Period. It isn’t God. It isn’t infallible. It isn’t proven, but it has done very well relative to gold over the last 6 months. Hindsight 20/20, of course I would have rather had Bitcoin than gold over the last 6 months. I would have rather a portfolio full of Tesla stock too. Why? I like money. That said... because I don’t have a crystal ball or time machine, I chose gold to a larger extent, for a reason.

Where I see the two now... Bitcoin has had a ridiculously great run and honestly good job to those of you that captured it. The other one, gold, has shockingly retreated. So what, I’m still up and I don’t need the money.

The fact that they are BOTH a way to keep your money out of the USD are where the similarities start and end. They are radically different.

I will absolutely 100% concede, subjective value theory, which is correct economics, means something is worth what someone will pay for it, and the market is always right. That means a Bitcoin is worth $53,799 USD. It absolutely is. Just like tulips were absolutely worth a year of a Dutch salary at one point in time. Someone sold a Bitcoin today for $53k and someone sold a tulip for a year’s salary at one point in history. It was worth what someone paid.

With a stock, you look at a company relative to its competitors, weigh the headwinds, tailwinds, and expected management decisions. You determine if you subjectively value a stock more than someone else based on actual data and your expectations of the company’s objective performance. If you do, you buy or hold. If you don’t, you sell or you just don’t buy it.

With a commodity, you look at the expected forces on demand, expected forces on supply, and its usefulness to an economy. You buy if you subjectively expect it to become more objectively valuable.

When people start talking about valuations of coins, that is absolute nonsense. There is no relativity. Saying one coin is overvalued or undervalued is finger in the wind, bullshit speculation. The entire concept of valuing a crypto is uncharted territory with no foundational basis other than “I think this will be the future” or “I think that will be the future.”

At its core, gold is a commodity. They use it in shit. It is not unlike oil, copper, grains, water, lumber, whatever. There is objective value to humans in it. But there has also been additional subjective value in its rarity relative to that objective value. That made it an intelligent currency. Exchange is subjective. Use is objective. Subjective value of ANYTHING is inherently speculative.

Every investment lies somewhere on a spectrum. A old stable dividend stock might be more toward the objective side of the spectrum with minimal subjectivity. A growth stock trading at 50x the value of that old stable dividend stock with the same earnings has a lot of subjectivity. Gold skews HARD objective and Bitcoin skews HARD subjective.

Today, the subjective value of gold has coiled, in favor of the hot card table. Make no mistake, the objective value still lies ever closer beneath the surface. There is legitimate valuation data for gold and silver based on supply and demand that considers its commodity uses. Add to that a long history of subjective use as an alternative means of exchange, and you have valuation data to consider.

There is little if any objective value in Bitcoin. It is a creature of only subjective value. Just like the USD. That doesn’t make it shit. That just makes it significantly different.

Now I preface all of these posts with a huge disclaimer. I’m not a crypto bear. I’m a realist. I have more net worth than I feel comfortable slamming into one investment after I licked a finger and told myself that I’m smart. I think decentralized currency is brilliant and an invention that will certainly change the world for the better. With that always, historically, comes growing pains. Whether it be better alternatives, whether it be savage gangster governments. Whatever... Portnoyesque permabull mindset does not make someone smart money. Being able to sleep at night does.

I like crypto. I hate the speculation packaged as sound investment sentiment in the crypto community. If you are comfortable buying stocks at hundreds of times earnings, that is the type of asset you are getting into with crypto. Something heavy subjective and light or absent objective value.

What would I choose today as someone with an actual net worth? I would choose gold with even more conviction than I did years ago. Why? Investing 101, buy low sell high. Gold is frickin cheap right now... and God forbid if bitcoin actually is a house of cards, a lot of anti-dollar liquidity will be searching for a new home.

 

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[csalvato]

My views are that it is absolutely revolutionary technology.
And due to gaining popularity mining hash would consume a lot more power, not to mention scarcity with each block mined.

My thought was that energy consumption (which will grow exponentially) could be used for more effective and efficient purpose.

As @Kak said this really isn't an issue because as more miners join the mix, the difficulty goes up. Eventually that hits the limit on what's profitable, since it costs money to generate energy, so electric companies will always have to charge something for this.

So there's definitely an upper limit on how many miners get involved, based on a number of variables.

As an aside, renewable energy makes this a non-issue. It wouldn't take many solar panels, relative to the size of the earth, to generate enough power to mine Bitcoin every day. And that's just solar - not even counting innovations in wind or tidal energy.

Even though we are not there now, this is what the future holds for energy consumption.

The energy consumption issue, imo, is a non-issue.

 

[csalvato]

There is little if any objective value in Bitcoin. It is a creature of only subjective value. Just like the USD. That doesn’t make it shit. That just makes it significantly different.

Gold should be pumping just as much as bitcoin.

But it's not.

I really don't think that's something that can be shrugged off anymore.

Something more fundamental has changed.

If we look at the price of gold objectively, the argument that it has intrinsic/objective value is disappearing.

A bulk of the market cap of gold is because of its subjective value as a store of value.

As that value prop becomes irrelevant and bitcoin captures people people seeking that value, gold should go to a market cap that reflects its value as a consumable material, instead.

The objective value of gold as a consumable material is far less than its current market cap. Perhaps 50-90% lower.

As Bitcoin becomes the focus of subjective value, I believe the market cap of gold will shrink down to a level that only reflects its use as a material.

I have no crystal ball, of course. Just my take.

 

[Timmy C]

Gold should be pumping just as much as bitcoin.

But it's not.

I really don't think that's something that can be shrugged off anymore.

Something more fundamental has changed.

If we look at the price of gold objectively, the argument that it has intrinsic/objective value is disappearing.

A bulk of the market cap of gold is because of its subjective value as a store of value.

As that value prop becomes irrelevant and bitcoin captures people people seeking that value, gold should go to a market cap that reflects its value as a consumable material, instead.

The objective value of gold as a consumable material is far less than its current market cap. Perhaps 50-90% lower.

As Bitcoin becomes the focus of subjective value, I believe the market cap of gold will shrink down to a level that only reflects its use as a material.

I have no crystal ball, of course. Just my take.

Right?

Gold should be pumping right now.

That's why I bought it when Covid hit.

 

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[nitrousflame]

It boggles my mind that humans seem to have this burning desire for everything to boil down into simple binary truths, especially when there exists an infinity between zero and one. In my opinion, if you must pick gold OR bitcoin, you've already lost.

 

[csalvato]

It boggles my mind that humans seem to have this burning desire for everything to boil down into simple binary truths, especially when there exists an infinity between zero and one. In my opinion, if you must pick gold OR bitcoin, you've already lost.

I was in both until recently.

My conclusion is that gold will go through a massive drop over the next 5 years as it corrects back to its price as a material, and not as a store of value.

So it's not "either-or" insomuch as evaluating each on their own to evaluate EV and opportunity cost.

 

[Timmy C]

I was in both until recently.

My conclusion is that gold will go through a massive drop over the next 5 years as it corrects back to its price as a material, and not as a store of value.

So it's not "either-or" insomuch as evaluating each on their own to evaluate EV and opportunity cost.

I sold mine in January.

I held both BTC and Gold as a hedge to the money printing.

One did well, one didn't.

The end.

 

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[nitrousflame]

In short, when it comes to portfolio allocation, of course everyone will have their own preferences and biases, but I think most underprioritize noncorrelation in favor of diversification.

Short thread for more: Thread by @TaylorPearsonMe: I believe for most investors, the easiest way to improve their risk-adjusted returns is not to get better at "picking winners" but to get be…

 

[csalvato]

I sold mine in January.

I held both BTC and Gold as a hedge to the money printing.

One did well, one didn't.

The end.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BIDcmh_6Es&feature=youtu.be