Will we see an actual war with China?

[bornoim]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there has never been a direct conflict between nuclear powers, right? So why should this change all of a sudden?

Even if the US actually had the potential to win a war against China and neutralize their nuclear weapons, Russia would interfere because they would know they're next in line.

So yeah, I don't lose sleep over this.

 

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[Fenom21]

OMG so strange. I just don't like Europeans commenting on American politics that's it. The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

Yes, I agree when it comes US internal affairs. I especially cringe when non Americans talk about things like enforcing gun control and race relations in the US.

But a potential conflict between the world's 2 main superpowers is not exclusively an American issue. It is very strange that you think so. I feel like I'm explaining 2+2 to a 5 year old.

 

[Noo]

The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

I am sensing a complex of superiority, not an "international issue Vs national issue" here (international vs national is 2+2 = 4, as someone said).

 

[AFMKelvin]

Yes, I agree when it comes US internal affairs. I especially cringe when non Americans talk about things like enforcing gun control and race relations in the US.

But a potential conflict between the world's 2 main superpowers is not exclusively an American issue. It is very strange that you think so. I feel like I'm explaining 2+2 to a 5 year old.

How much were other countries effected by the Cuba/North Korea/Venezuela embargo? As far as I know other countries still trade with those three. Yet the USA doesn't trade with them. An all out war wouldn't make a big difference for them either.

 

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[AFMKelvin]

I am sensing a complex of superiority, not an "international issue Vs national issue" here (international vs national is 2+2 = 4, as someone said).

No all I'm saying is that whatever the original poster wanted to know is not even in our minds in the USA. People are too worried about Covid19 to even think about war.

 

[Noo]

No all I'm saying is that whatever the original poster wanted to know is not even in our minds in the USA. People are too worried about Covid19 to even think about war.

Okay, I understand that.

I was trying to get myself away from the topic itself and only talking about the whereabouts, but there is this article on Forbes, written by a commenter, that is interesting.

Basically it kinda links what people think, with its impact on the elections, and international policy at the same time.

From my interpretation reading this article, the key point here is that Trump can lose swing states if unemployment continues as it is, allied with the fact that the fighting against coronavirus isn't going very well in comparison with China, continuing to attack China probably won't work/won't be enough to redirect the attention of his key voters.

Trump’s Attack On China Could Ruin His Re-Election Bid

By focusing his attack on China, Trump may have inadvertently provided clear evidence of his failure in making America great again.

www.forbes.com

And it seems to be a "nice guy" to comment this (studied public policy, it's Asian but lived in North America a couple of years as well). It would be better if it was Chinese, though. I guess it's from Singapore. But it's still very good.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yuwahedrickwong/?originalSubdomain=ca

 

[AFMKelvin]

Okay, I understand that.

I was trying to get myself away from the topic itself and only talking about the whereabouts, but there is this article on Forbes, written by a commenter, that is interesting.

Basically it kinda links what people think, with its impact on the elections, and international policy at the same time.

From my interpretation reading this article, the key point here is that Trump can lose swing states if unemployment continues as it is, allied with the fact that the fighting against coronavirus isn't going very well in comparison with China, continuing to attack China probably won't work/won't be enough to redirect the attention of his key voters.

Trump’s Attack On China Could Ruin His Re-Election Bid

By focusing his attack on China, Trump may have inadvertently provided clear evidence of his failure in making America great again.

www.forbes.com

And it seems to be a "nice guy" to comment this (studied public policy, it's Asian but lived in North America a couple of years as well). It would be better if it was Chinese, though. I guess it's from Singapore. But it's still very good.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yuwahedrickwong/?originalSubdomain=ca

This is what I'm trying to point out. Foreigners get all their information from mainstream media corporations. Which are heavily funded by China. Don't trust USA's news. There's a reason Trump keeps calling them fake news. Go back and watch the news for the 2016 election. It was predicted that Trump would not even be nominated for the Republican party and than the polls said Trump would not win the election. Foreigners thin the news are real. They are not. They all have an agenda and their "polls" are fabricated.

 

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[Digamma]

OMG so strange. I just don't like Europeans commenting on American politics that's it. The way Europeans live under the government's thumb makes me disregard their opinion when they talk about the USA.

Even if the US actually had the potential to win a war against China and neutralize their nuclear weapons, Russia would interfere because they would know they're next in line.

The geopolitics in this thread get wackier with each page. Fantastic.

We are now in an alternate reality in which Western Europe is a dystopia, the USA is about to go on a rampage against everyone because nuclear holocausts raise the GDP, and Putin gets himself wrecked by NATO to save his beloved China.

I would get excited about the upcoming alien invasion, but if COVID has taught us anything, it's that even that would end up being boring.

 

[Noo]

This is what I'm trying to point out. Foreigners get all their information from mainstream media corporations. Which are heavily funded by China. Don't trust USA's news. There's a reason Trump keeps calling them fake news. Go back and watch the news for the 2016 election. It was predicted that Trump would not even be nominated for the Republican party and than the polls said Trump would not win the election. Foreigners thin the news are real. They are not. They all have an agenda and their "polls" are fabricated.

lol
Foreigners don't get all their information from MSM. That's just the most ridiculous thing I've heard today.
Actually, we have the same problem America has with conspiracy theories and shit like that.
A lot of "foreigners" (including me) actually thought, at that time, that Trump would win.
Actually, from my group of friends, half of the people thought that. Shocking? I didn't trust the 90%> chance of victory of Hillary Clinton that was presented at that time. Wow, and I'm a foreigner.

Commentators are not news.
News are not facts.
Facts sometimes are just theoretical and don't work in practice.
Research sometimes has high-school mathematical errors, that only by peer-review are noticed, and people still believe research before the peer-review. (ew)
And there is also p-hacking...

So, if you want to throw out a lot of content, you can, and you should.
Even research from "Ivy League" colleges.

But more important than that...
you're not everyone.
News doesn't know if Trump will get reelected.
You don't know it also. Neither do I. We just believe things, at most.

I believe that Trump hurting China is a bad strategy. I don't know if it will cost its elections or not. I don't think about it. After I finish writing this, I will probably not think about Trump until a notification on this thread pops up. I am not worried about a WWIII. Apparently some media is talking stuff about war right now(they're always) - I didn't even know before this topic.

No one is better than anyone based on if someone gets informed on the news, or on youtube. It's how you read and think, not where.
Ideally, they should be complementary, if you have the time and the energy to have thoughtful thinking. There is good and bad content everywhere, some places are just better than others.

The point is: saying that is not a possibility because it's listed on MSM is just as bad as believing that something is a possibility because it's on Youtube.

If something is presented to yourself and has logic in it, you don't act like it's true, but you admit that is a possibility because you don't know everything. I admit that this is a possibility because it makes sense to me, it doesn't mean I am a Warren Buffet who reads all the daily newspapers every time he wakes up and that MSM is my religion.

 

[bornoim]

We are now in an alternate reality in which Western Europe is a dystopia, the USA is about to go on a rampage against everyone because nuclear holocausts raise the GDP, and Putin gets himself wrecked by NATO to save his beloved China.

Russia is already intimidated by the US missile defense system as it is, and if the balance of power were to shift too much in favor of the US, an alliance between China and Russia would be the logical consequence.
I don't know what your problem is though, the scenario you quoted was purely hypothetical in order to show that the probability of a war is close to zero.

 

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[PizzaOnTheRoof]

Want to say my peace before this thread gets locked.

Who knew the assassination of a single man would lead to a global war?

Who thought Nazi Germany would try and conquer the world?

A lot of people believe the “threat of communism” in the late 1900’s was blown out of proportion. Did that stop the Vietnam war? Should the Soviet Union have been left unchecked?

Things happen all of the time that we can’t exactly see the consequences of until they happen.

Nations that were once allies became enemies, and visa versa.

The world 100 years from now may look very different than the one we enjoy today.

Do I think a war with China would be absolutely stupid and dangerous for all of humanity? Yep.

Does that mean I think it’s impossible given human history and nature? Nope.

Trust but verify. Assume nothing. Make the best of today while you can.

 

[OfWolfAndMan32]

War with China? Cyber war, perhaps (Or, perhaps China/US has already been engaging on that front for some time).

We live in the age of fourth generation warfare, not second (That's a William S. Lind reference).

If anything, China will see some major shifts in their relationships in the next few years. The fact that they are closely allied with Iran and downplayed to them about how harmful the virus could be, and then many big leaders have come down with it and some killed, shows that they're playing with fire.

Change won't happen from external factors, likely from internal ones as well as allied countries.

Think about the cause and effect of Chernobyl on the USSR. Two different situations, but ultimately it's not unlikely China's structure could change years following this pandemic.

 

[Digamma]

EDIT: Nope. Not getting baited. Mods, you can delete this post.

 

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[Xeon]

We are in the middle of a trade war. Does anybody think we will see an actual war with China?

China in 2020 is not China in 1940. In 1940, a single US naval boat can sink the entire Chinese navy.

The US has never gone into a full-blown war with a nation the same size as it.
All her opponents in history are far smaller and poorer countries, like the Middle Eastern nations, Iraq, Vietnam. China is not Iraq. This is the same reason why the US never went into an all-out war with Russia, because it just means mutually-assured destruction.

But if the US does get into a real war with China, it'll not be just firing rockets at each other as one poster earlier mentioned. It'll escalate fast into a full-blown WW3, with nations taking sides.

In the worst scenario:

Five Eyes Alliance (CA, UK, AU, NZ) will join forces with USA. Pretty sure western Europe (Germany,Spain,France) and the Nordic nations (Finland, Denmark, Sweden) will back USA. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea will chimp in. Have a feeling India will as well.

On the other side, Russia should be siding China for obvious reasons. North Korea's role will be to fix Japan and South Korea. Pakistan probably will support China if India gets involved.
Majority of Middle East should be pro-China except for Israel. The countries in South America may or may not be with China.

The Balkan countries (Serbia, Romania, Greece, Bosnia....) would be neutral.
South-East Asia probably as well (though China might nuke us as we're letting US navy ships berth here....)

How else could China be subdued economically? As far as I know, think tanks have determined that a war with China must happen soon, before China gets too powerful.

1) China does not need to be subdued economically nor is it "The Enemy". They never had a history of aggression like the US did and prefer to be left alone. It's crazy how people are not looking at things from a more positive angle : How do you access China's market which has 1.4 billion people?
That's 4 times the size of the US population. Instead of taking it down, you should be thinking of ways to prosper with that.

2) The real "Enemy" are the ones sitting in Washington DC.

3) There is a lot of anti-China sentiments going around the world, especially in Western countries, because they see China as a sort of weird, demonic place which they cannot understand. The culture, the style of governance etc. There is a solution to this : after Covid19 has passed or the situation has gotten better, these guys need to step out from their soil, take a trip to China, have a vacation there, walk around, interact with the folks. They'll start to realize their own media has been feeding them distorted rubbish daily. And no, mainstream Chinese diet do not consist of eating bats and dogs. It is a very tiny minority. Most Chinese would puke if you offer them bat meat. There is a dish called "Southern fried rattlesnake" in the US. Does this mean it's a daily staple meal in the US?

4) One observation : China has been working hard INWARDS: pull its people out of poverty, improving her own infrastructure like transport, logistics, technology etc. On the other hand, the US seems to be more interested in building up her military, blaming other nations, shifting the focus to foreign issues, thus working hard OUTWARDS.

The way I see it, China will go all out to avoid any war with any country, because they spent decades of hard work to reach where they are today. Any war will throw them back to the 1900s period, which is the last thing they need now. Wars benefit no one (except maybe Washington DC).

The concept of war with China, unfortunately, seems to be a fantasy and wet dream of American hawks. I'm not a US citizen, but what America really needs now is a peace-loving President who can work together with China, though that is a naive thought.

Tldr; There will be no war with China except in Pompeo and his friends' daydreams.

 

[MitchM]

I’m of a mind that both the U.S. and China having nuclear capability is enough to stave off a war. I really hope that mutually assured destruction will hold us back.

As far as I see it, if terms can be met between both the US and China that are economically beneficial for both, then we will continue being fine. Almost every single alternative is better than war and will likely stay that way.

 

[Lyinx]

Maybe that is why I am asking!?

Did I state an opinion, or ask a question . I am just really worried because I can't come up with a more benign answer to the question "how else could this conflict play out?".

I am grateful to hear the opinions of people who can tell how likely or not it is that politicians could get a majority behind a war or not - if 10,000,000 jobs in the oil industry are lost.
The answer that nobody is currently even thinking about it is very comforting.

I am a little surprised that the question is considered laughable. I don't think "The Grand Chessboard" is Chinese propaganda ... but yes, didn't know politics are a nono. So I'll shut up.

From a purely game theory perspective, it plays out by going back to the status quo.

Let's be clear -- the US government doesn't care about the death toll from the virus. They could use it as a pretext to implement other strategies that they need justification for, but there's likely no real desire for retribution or forced compensation for anything related to the virus. (If you don't believe this, all you have to do is look at Saudi Arabia murdering thousands of Americans on 9/11 to know that our government doesn't truly care about the death tolls.)

So, things will likely go back to where they were pre-virus. Where is that? Well, if you go back to pre-2016, there really wasn't much concern over China trade at all. Trade imbalances aren't inherently bad, and with the exception of intellectual property concerns, pretty much nobody was complaining about China before the last election. In fact, we can pretty much credit the economic expansion of the past 30 years in this country to two things -- the Internet and China.

If anyone other than Trump is elected in November (from either party), our relationship with China will likely return to pre-2016 dynamics. If Trump wins in November, we'll likely see increased rhetoric, more fake promises from China, more claims of great strides from Trump, and ultimately no real movement over the next 4 years.

Unless, of course, China feels like there is too much pressure being put on them, in which case, they have plenty of economic and monetary leverage to make things more painful for our consumers as well. In fact, I'd argue they have more leverage than we do -- and we have more to lose -- and any escalation of trade war over the next few years will likely take a toll on our economy.

Then, in 2024, whoever wins will go back to status quo with China.

It's worth mentioning that if our currency collapses between now and then, China will likely be the next world economic superpower.

I'll answer this as my a citizen of the US.. : No, I don't see us going to war with China (or China with us) in the conventional sense.
Here is the reasoning(s)
China is touting itself as being "socialist, with capitalist leanings", phrase that I made up, but its what I think they are leaning towards.
What do I think that this means? In my opinion, China is starting to work like a business, they are looking to maximize profits as a "business" and there are literally hundreds of scenarios that they could play out to maximize their profits.
I'm still studying these few books lately:
Art of war
Xi's two books of speeches that he made.(note: I read them, and say, this is what the Chinese media wants us to know about China and where they are going, might not be the direction that they are going!)
The book on Chinese "total warfare"

Strategy that I think the Chinese are using:
1. Make the world dependent on Chinese goods, at low prices
2. raise prices, to move $$$ from the world and into China
3. repeat, with variations. If anything becomes mass-market, then make it! don't make small batches of anything, sell quantity! Flood the Market and be the only supplier!

What would the US do if China would increase prices by 200% overnight (if a fidget spinner used to cost $.33 each, now it would be $1.00) if a chair used to cost $100, now it would be $300.
If your Iphone used to cost $2500, it might now cost $2995 (or, more likely) they will use the rising prices as an excuse to put the Iphone up to $3975.

Alternate strategy (make US citizens very happy to work with China/give them $$$)
If your meat was processed in China, then they can refuse to ship a shipment (unlikely, as that makes the US citizens upset to them) so they would rather do this:
1. make it dirt-cheap to take meat from the US, to China to be processed, then return to the US.
2. make it difficult to get meat that's made in the US (processing plants shutdown?)
3. US citizens become upset due to lack of meat
4. China starts putting Chinese writing on all of the meat that they pack, and all of a sudden, all the meat in Walmart has Chinese writing on it, Yay, we have meat!
5. public praises China for their generosity and gives them money to process even more, and starts getting them to do other things.
6. US processing plants go out of business.
7. China raises prices 10% per year

repeat for every business out there, until you have Chinese counselors/therapists and dentists.

Don't think it could happen? they already process 50% of our meat...

 

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[Odysseus M Jones]

China is touting itself as being "socialist, with capitalist leanings", phrase that I made up,

I believe Deng Xiaoping said "socialism with Chinese characteristics" back in the 80's

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0835115534/?tag=tff-amazonparser-20

 

[Kevin88660]

A hot war is unlikely.
1) Both are nuclear powers. I think China underreports their nuclear arsenals
2) Hard sell to the American public. A war for what? Many American boys die in Taiwan so that there could be more minimum wage Manufacturing jobs back in Detroit? Some hawkish elites may have their own agenda
3) Both can hurt each other and escalate a lot before going to war. A lot Chinese companies access to U.S. capital market can be affected. A lot of Chinese elites have their own assets and their children studying in U.S. These are hostages.

In return U.S. MNC have investment in China that are Potential hostage also. If China declare their Gold Holdings they could launch a financial attack on U.S.dollar (selling dollar assets) that will cause a major currency crisis in U.S.

 

[Bearcorp]

A good podcast on the topic;

‎Freakonomics Radio: 414. Will C0VlD-19 Spark a Cold War (or Worse) With China? on Apple Podcasts

 

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[Ben Taylor]

I feel like all one needs to do is watch War Games, with China subbed in for Russia, to see why a hot war with China is extremely unlikely. Mutually assured destruction, people.

 

[advantagecp]

I feel like all one needs to do is watch War Games, with China subbed in for Russia, to see why a hot war with China is extremely unlikely. Mutually assured destruction, people.

I think the US would get into a hot war if China invades Taiwan. Other than that I don't see it happening.

 

[WJK]

Hi all.

We are in the middle of a trade war. Does anybody think we will see an actual war with China?

Given the issues in the oil sector, I thought a war with Iran is likely. That might "solve" the problem of low prices.

But what about Brzezinski and the grand chessboard? How else could China be subdued economically?
As far as I know, think tanks have determined that a war with China must happen soon, before China gets too powerful.

China media calls for nukes to be TRIPLED to fend off US amid virus backlash

CHINESE state media has called for a tripling of nation’s nuclear arsenal to fend off the “warmongering” US as tensions rage over the coronavirus pandemic. The Global Times ̵…

www.thesun.co.uk

War has historically been great for GDP growth. Presidents get reelected if they are in a war.

The USA is practising nuklear strikes.

US Nukes Russia in Simulation Exercise

US Nukes Russia in Simulation Exercise

www.nationaldefensemagazine.org

World War 3 threat: US warned after ‘dangerous’ nuclear simulation

A SIMULATION of a nuclear attack on Russia by the United States is upping the stakes and making an apocalyptic showdown between the superpowers more likely, a senior Russian politician has claimed.

www.express.co.uk

The economic sactions that Trump considered recently sound pretty close to something that usually leads to military conflicts.

Has this been discussed here, already? I did a search, but mostly found this rant RANT - China is our #1 enemy and what to do about it which does not mention the war option, but shows a sentiment that politicians can tap into ... as well as trade war related threads.

It could happen. A lot of it depends on who wins the November election. And it's not just Trump -- it's Congress as well. And I don't think that the USA will shoot first. China is going to get a lot more desperate to save face as time goes on. This dispute is going to more and more upfront and center.

I don't think that the Chinese want to get into a hot war. They would rather win financially and by theft. But, look at what's happened in the last 3 years. Many in the world have turned against China. Before they were flying under the radar without close scrutiny. Now a lot of the world is angry with them. It's been a work in progress. The trade war issues started it and the virus has cemented many people's feelings of disgust for China's decisions.

 

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[ygtrhos]

You're German commenting on American politics. Why do people do this?

Bullshit argument. US has been all over the world and in US everybody comments about Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam without knowing a damn thing about these countries really.

Anybody can comment on anything, it is your job to assess if it is worth listening or not.

Someone can come from Bhutan, Turkey or Germany and comment on US. That is the price you pay for having speech freedom and democracy. It is not only you, but everyone, who can comment.

So stop quieting others and get back to your own business.

@Andreas Thiel There is no justifiable reason for a world war in 2020. Historically, it has been proven that even winning a war like that would be hugely detrimental to the winner. (Remember UK after World War 2. The only winners of WW2 are US and Soviet Union.)

Oil prices, geopolitical concerns, these things are small when you compare them with long-term debt cycles and world dominance. They are not worth a world war.

If US declares war on China, that would be one of the dumbest things they can do. Even if they win that war, they would be going back 20 years in time because of the destruction that the war causes. Probably the ones who would win such a war would be Iran, Russia and EU.

 

[advantagecp]

Anybody can comment on anything, it is your job to assess if it is worth listening or not.

Someone can come from Bhutan, Turkey or Germany and comment on US. That is the price you pay for having speech freedom and democracy. It is not only you, but everyone, who can comment.

This American gets tired of hearing foreigners constant criticism of all things American because it's real easy to say what should have been done after the fact or when you are sitting in the peanut gallery. It's what we called "leading from the rear" in the US Marine Corps. When you find yourself up in front with the responsibility for making decisions suddenly shit gets a lot more complicated.

So let's say you are German and you are offering your comment on how the US should have done something differently. My question is what the f*** did Germany do?

 

[AFMKelvin]

Bullshit argument. US has been all over the world and in US everybody comments about Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam without knowing a damn thing about these countries really.

Anybody can comment on anything, it is your job to assess if it is worth listening or not.

Someone can come from Bhutan, Turkey or Germany and comment on US. That is the price you pay for having speech freedom and democracy. It is not only you, but everyone, who can comment.

So stop quieting others and get back to your own business.

Trust me no one in the USA comments on other countries politics because people just don't care. People don't really talk politics here in the USA. Much less foreign politics. Like I said before stop looking at the USA through the looking glass of mainstream media.

The price we pay for having free speech? I didn't know free speech was such a burden.

 

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[PizzaOnTheRoof]

the style of governance

You mean authoritarianism? Welding peoples doors shut? Disappearing journalists and whistleblowers?

It’s ok guys they just have a different style of governance.

As if the Hong Kong riots are because someone knocked over their sandcastle.

 

[ygtrhos]

The price we pay for having free speech? I didn't know free speech was such a burden.

All rights come with their responsibilities. Not only free speech.

Trust me no one in the USA comments on other countries politics because people just don't care.

This is just your personal opinion. Seen many enough Americans do otherwise.

"Trust me" Yeah I did, like 100%.

I would drop all my life experience, my own judgments, personal opinions, my own righteousness, just because a dude half across the globe told me to "trust him".

This American gets tired of hearing foreigners constant criticism of all things American because it's real easy to say what should have been done after the fact or when you are sitting in the peanut gallery.

1. Nobody criticizes America in this thread, there was just a German guy, who was commenting about a possible war with China.

2. 99% of Americans sit in the "peanut gallery" as well, so pretty much everyone except politicians and soldiers should shut the F*ck up as well, according to that logic.

Like I said, as much as you guys can talk freely about others, others can also talk about you. You guys have no hidden privileges or something.

So let's say you are German and you are offering your comment on how the US should have done something differently. My question is what the f*** did Germany do?

I am not trying to discuss politics here (of which I also can state an opinion, but I prefer not to).

My point is about not quieting others.

 

[advantagecp]

2. 99% of Americans sit in the "peanut gallery" as well, so pretty much everyone except politicians and soldiers should shut the F*ck up as well, according to that logic.

Well, I'm a f*cking Marine so I get to have an opinion, right?

 

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[Longinus]

My question is what the f*** did Germany do?

Uhm... you're really asking this?

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Well, I'm a f*cking Marine so I get to have an opinion, right?

Sure, but you’re not special and I don’t know why you expect people to give your opinion extra weight simply because of your military service. Every member of this worldwide forum gets to have an opinion on a topic with clear global implications. No country would be unaffected by war between the two largest world powers. Unless you are currently serving AND employed at the point of confluence between military strategy and national foreign policy, your opinion is equally as valuable as those you consider to be in the peanut gallery.