The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[Kak]

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ Slams Virus Lockdowns in Tweetstorm

(Bloomberg) -- Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-investor who famously bet against mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, has taken to Twitter with a controversial message: lockdowns intended to contain the coronavirus pandemic are worse than the disease itself.Government-directed...

finance.yahoo.com

 

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[Lex DeVille]

Someone decided to do it. I wonder if the PoD T-shirt sites will start offering this.

 

[PapaGang]

Someone decided to do it. I wonder if the PoD T-shirt sites will start offering this.

View attachment 31973

I wanted to make a Wu-Tang mask.

 

[reedracer]

Someone decided to do it. I wonder if the PoD T-shirt sites will start offering this.

View attachment 31973

You can make custom buffs, but the price needs to come down...

Create your customized Products | BUFF® Custom

Whether you sell them or give them away, Custom headwear offers an outstanding marketing opportunity for retailers, teams, event promoters and organizations of all kinds. We don’t use templates so a unique Custom BUFF® Headwear is guaranteed.

www.buff.com

This thing from Megadeth would be awesom! (They sold out I think)

MEGADETH Offers Free Vic Rattlehead Facemask With New Countdown To Extinction Merch

Look a little metal during the pandemic.

metalinjection.net

 

[Saavedra]

we lucked out and were able to grab a costco sized bag of the stuff. I've never been so grateful to see a shelf full of toilet paper in our closet. Wife and I were plotting and scheming on what to do if we ran out. None of the ideas we came up with were all that appealing.

showering your a$$? like you were going to poo anywhere but home

 

[Rivoli]

In Coronavirus Response, Republicans and Democrats Like Big Government

In the scramble to contain the coronavirus financial fallout, U.S. policy makers have embraced an ambitious big-government agenda that could redefine Washington’s role in the economy.

www.wsj.com

It’s crazy

And the best answer is the libertarian one. Don’t contain it. Let it spread amongst young people and burn itself out. No economic cost.

 

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[GIlman]

@GIlman I consider this to be a very good job of explaining, but, at this point, I think it would be easier to to talk through and not be taken out of context with heavy straw if we have a phone discussion.

As you know and have probably observed, the more pro government side of the argument seems to have the monopoly on straw.

If you really want to have a discussion, let’s chat on the phone.

Thanks @Kak was a very interesting discussion.

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podcast.gilmanwolsey.com

 

[Kak]

Thanks @Kak was a very interesting discussion.

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It was an awesome discussion! Enjoy!

 

[Striver]

It’s crazy

And the best answer is the libertarian one. Don’t contain it. Let it spread amongst young people and burn itself out. No economic cost.

How do you ONLY infect the young?

 

[Rivoli]

How do you ONLY infect the young?

This is really easy man.

1. Force the old people into their houses - if they do not want to comply, they will be noted as such so when people see deaths in the news they can be reported as a non-compiler.
2. Appoint 1 US soldier to EACH elderly household that doesn’t have a family support person (1 page document to cross people off the list)
3. The soldier also acts as security to screen people visiting the elderly and also as an errand runner.

Do this for 6 months.

Encourage people to cough publicly uncovered, ban ALL masks, hand sanitizers, limit hand washing to 10 seconds.

Do a complete tax right off for events over 5,000. Encourage young people to get as sick as fast as possible.

The goal is to get to 60% infection within 3-4 weeks.

While the rest of the world cowers in fear and hits recession, the US would boom unlike ever before...and come out of the crisis with complete immunity.

Meanwhile the rest of the world just deals with this same shut down in October LOL.


But the US government wussed out and isn’t smart enough to do this.

 

[Lyinx]

Someone decided to do it. I wonder if the PoD T-shirt sites will start offering this.

View attachment 31973

I wonder if you can get a mask that looks like duct tape?

 

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[NovaAria]

Your thinking is good hearted but it's fundamentally flawed because of two things:

1- You are assuming that letting it rip through young people won't be problematic. If only 1% of the "young people" end up needing an ICU bed, that's still a huge number that no hospital can handle. You would need to "flatten the curve of young people getting infected" again.

2-Who are these "Young people"? If you discount people with health problems such as obesity, asthma, diabetes,.. That's a lot of people. What is the cut-off for age and health perquisites under which someone is risking their life with a COVID infection?

All this is, of course, assuming that the policy would be applied perfectly and there won't be outliers who will scuff at the idea of age separation and carry on with their lives or, in our new normal, carry on with their quarantine.

Thanks @Kak was a very interesting discussion.

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Loving this podcast and I will definitely give the rest a listen.
Thank you both of the interesting discussion.

 

[Rivoli]

Your thinking is good hearted but it's fundamentally flawed because of two things:

1- You are assuming that letting it rip through young people won't be problematic. If only 1% of the "young people" end up needing an ICU bed, that's still a huge number that no hospital can handle. You would need to "flatten the curve of young people getting infected" again.

2-Who are these "Young people"? If you discount people with health problems such as obesity, asthma, diabetes,.. That's a lot of people. What is the cut-off for age and health perquisites under which someone is risking their life with a COVID infection?

All this is, of course, assuming that the policy would be applied perfectly and there won't be outliers who will scuff at the idea of age separation and carry on with their lives or, in our new normal, carry on with their quarantine.


Loving this podcast and I will definitely give the rest a listen.
Thank you both of the interesting discussion.

How’s your math on that? We could have up to 1 million hospitalizations and be fine.

 

[ChrisV]

This is really easy man.

1. Force the old people into their houses - if they do not want to comply, they will be noted as such so when people see deaths in the news they can be reported as a non-compiler.
2. Appoint 1 US soldier to EACH elderly household that doesn’t have a family support person (1 page document to cross people off the list)
3. The soldier also acts as security to screen people visiting the elderly and also as an errand runner.

Do this for 6 months.

Encourage people to cough publicly uncovered, ban ALL masks, hand sanitizers, limit hand washing to 10 seconds.

Do a complete tax right off for events over 5,000. Encourage young people to get as sick as fast as possible.

The goal is to get to 60% infection within 3-4 weeks.

While the rest of the world cowers in fear and hits recession, the US would boom unlike ever before...and come out of the crisis with complete immunity.

Meanwhile the rest of the world just deals with this same shut down in October LOL.


But the US government wussed out and isn’t smart enough to do this.

This isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.

The UK actually tossed around ideas like this, but ultimately backed off because even with those measures the hospitals would become overrun.

The U.K.’s Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Debacle

The country is not aiming for 60 percent of the populace to get C0VlD-19, but you’d be forgiven for thinking so based on how badly the actual plan has been explained.

www.theatlantic.com

The U.K. backed off on herd immunity. To beat COVID-19, we’ll ultimately need it.

Widespread immunity is essential for a successful vaccine, but establishing it could be difficult for the new coronavirus.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Britain Drops Its Go-It-Alone Approach to Coronavirus

Johnson government admits its strategy of allowing the virus to spread and build up immunity was a failure but stops short of mandatory controls.

foreignpolicy.com

Boris Johnson seemingly revealed that the United Kingdom would adopt a different strategy. The government would no longer try to track and trace the contacts of every suspected case, and it would test only people who are admitted to hospitals. In lieu of any major social-distancing measures, Johnson instead offered a suite of soft advice—people with symptoms should stay home; no school trips abroad; people over 70 should avoid cruises.

It probably should be noted that Boris Johnson is now in the ICU.

But they changed their position anyway:

On Monday night, that theory collided with the facts. A new analysis by immunologists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine of the impact of the coronavirus in Italy suggested that up to 30 percent of patients hospitalized with the virus would require intensive care treatment. Those numbers, if repeated in the U.K., would quickly overwhelm Britain’s state-run National Health Service.

 

[Rivoli]

This isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.

The UK actually tossed around ideas like this, but ultimately backed off because even with those measures the hospitals would become overrun.

The U.K.’s Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Debacle

The country is not aiming for 60 percent of the populace to get C0VlD-19, but you’d be forgiven for thinking so based on how badly the actual plan has been explained.

www.theatlantic.com

The U.K. backed off on herd immunity. To beat COVID-19, we’ll ultimately need it.

Widespread immunity is essential for a successful vaccine, but establishing it could be difficult for the new coronavirus.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Britain Drops Its Go-It-Alone Approach to Coronavirus

Johnson government admits its strategy of allowing the virus to spread and build up immunity was a failure but stops short of mandatory controls.

foreignpolicy.com

Boris Johnson seemingly revealed that the United Kingdom would adopt a different strategy. The government would no longer try to track and trace the contacts of every suspected case, and it would test only people who are admitted to hospitals. In lieu of any major social-distancing measures, Johnson instead offered a suite of soft advice—people with symptoms should stay home; no school trips abroad; people over 70 should avoid cruises.

It probably should be noted that Boris Johnson is now in the ICU.

But they changed their position anyway:

On Monday night, that theory collided with the facts. A new analysis by immunologists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine of the impact of the coronavirus in Italy suggested that up to 30 percent of patients hospitalized with the virus would require intensive care treatment. Those numbers, if repeated in the U.K., would quickly overwhelm Britain’s state-run National Health Service.

Sweden is doing a rift on the Rivoli plan - just without the good parts. They are eschewing lockdowns and going for herd immunity though

 

[Genius01]

This is really easy man.

1. Force the old people into their houses - if they do not want to comply, they will be noted as such so when people see deaths in the news they can be reported as a non-compiler.
2. Appoint 1 US soldier to EACH elderly household that doesn’t have a family support person (1 page document to cross people off the list)
3. The soldier also acts as security to screen people visiting the elderly and also as an errand runner.

Do this for 6 months.

Encourage people to cough publicly uncovered, ban ALL masks, hand sanitizers, limit hand washing to 10 seconds.

Do a complete tax right off for events over 5,000. Encourage young people to get as sick as fast as possible.

The goal is to get to 60% infection within 3-4 weeks.

While the rest of the world cowers in fear and hits recession, the US would boom unlike ever before...and come out of the crisis with complete immunity.

Meanwhile the rest of the world just deals with this same shut down in October LOL.


But the US government wussed out and isn’t smart enough to do this.

Do you realize that this virus also kills young people, even those WITHOUT comorbidities??
Especially among doctors and health workers... I've read of quite a few.
And even among those not in healthcare professions.
And that is for mortality- death. For those that survive, some of them have significant residual complications, I've read of a young person in his 30s with no comorbidities that had to be discharged home permanently on oxygen supplementation via an oxygen machine, for God knows how long. There's no guarantee that he'll be able to get off that oxygen machine for the rest of his life...he may be oxygen dependent for life because of pulmonary fibrosis- scar tissue in the lungs from attempts at healing.
So, the claim that it does not affect young people is incorrect, ...yes it's often less severe in them, but even among them, it can cause significant havoc if left to run amok.
And yes, a significant number of young to middle aged people also have some comorbidities- notably asthma, with some others having diabetes, hypertension and immunosuppressive conditions.
So, you might want to exercise some caution in proposing that strategy as the panacea to the current situation.

 

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[ChrisV]

Also this 'human lives vs the economy' thing is one of the biggest false dichotomies I've ever seen.

It may be surprising but allowing 2-6 million people die and literally collapsing the healthcare infrastructure is not going to positively affect the economy.

We're F*cked either way. And the consensus among economists is that we're even more F*cked economically if we don't contain this.

Let me repost this:

A panel of 44 of the nations top economists were asked this to Agree/Disagree with the following statement:

"Lifting lockdowns will lead to greater economic damage than keeping the lockdown measures in place"

80% Agreed. 14% were Uncertain. 0% Disagreed.

Source:

University of Chicago – Policy for the C0VlD-19 Crisis

 

[Kak]

Also this 'human lives vs the economy' thing is one of the biggest false dichotomies I've ever seen.

It may be surprising but allowing 2-6 million people die and literally collapsing the healthcare infrastructure is not going to positively affect the economy.

We're F*cked either way. And the consensus among economists is that we're even more F*cked economically if we don't contain this.

Let me repost this:

A panel of 44 of the nations top economists were asked this to Agree/Disagree with the following statement:

"Lifting lockdowns will lead to greater economic damage than keeping the lockdown measures in place"

80% Agreed. 14% were Uncertain. 0% Disagreed.

Source:

University of Chicago – Policy for the C0VlD-19 Crisis

I think it is pretty well proven at this point that the economy vs deaths argument isn't the 1:1 relationship the communists would have everyone believe. You can have the economy functioning with precautions in place and not "let 2-6 million people die." An argument like that, at this point, is total straw. We don't even have a true death rate.

The fraction of a fraction of a fraction of lives that are saved by these policies are now known to be so few...

First of all you have a total case count... An unknown number definitely an order of magnitude higher than we know... It basically doesn't count non-clinical cases. This makes the death rate an order of magnitude lower.

NEXT... The prospect of survival for someone put on a ventilator is grim anyway. Suggesting about a 2/3 of people on ventilators do die.

That leaves the proportion of the 1/3 ultra critical cases that would live with ventilator treatment... Relative to how many people a hospital must turn away which is currently ZERO in the USA to my knowledge.

I am suggesting you let the economy move forward to the extent that hospitals don't turn people away. My method kills ZERO more people than a commie shutdown. People would still take personal responsibility for their safety and the curve would still be flatter, just not some snails pace lockdown.

Saying economic shutdowns save lives is correct, but only the fraction of the fraction of the fraction of the save-able people seeking treatment and can't get it. Saying economic shutdowns will save millions of lives is a total farce.

 

[Rivoli]

Do you realize that this virus also kills young people, even those WITHOUT comorbidities??
Especially among doctors and health workers... I've read of quite a few.
And even among those not in healthcare professions.
And that is for mortality- death. For those that survive, some of them have significant residual complications, I've read of a young person in his 30s with no comorbidities that had to be discharged home permanently on oxygen supplementation via an oxygen machine, for God knows how long. There's no guarantee that he'll be able to get off that oxygen machine for the rest of his life...he may be oxygen dependent for life because of pulmonary fibrosis- scar tissue in the lungs from attempts at healing.
So, the claim that it does not affect young people is incorrect, ...yes it's often less severe in them, but even among them, it can cause significant havoc if left to run amok.
And yes, a significant number of young to middle aged people also have some comorbidities- notably asthma, with some others having diabetes, hypertension and immunosuppressive conditions.
So, you might want to exercise some caution in proposing that strategy as the panacea to the current situation.

What’s the death rate for young people bossman? 0.0005%?

 

[ChrisV]

I think it is pretty well proven at this point that the economy vs deaths argument isn't the 1:1 relationship the communists would have everyone believe. You can have the economy functioning with precautions in place and not "let 2-6 million people die." An argument like that, at this point, verging on straw.

The fraction of a fraction of a fraction of lives that are saved by these policies are now known to be so few...

First of all you have a total case count... An unknown number definitely an order of magnitude higher than we know... It basically doesn't count non-clinical cases. This makes the death rate an order of magnitude lower.

NEXT... The prospect of survival for someone put on a ventilator is grim anyway. Suggesting about a 2/3 of people on ventilators do die.

That leaves the proportion of the 1/3 ultra-critical cases that would live with ventilator treatment... Relative to how many people a hospital must turn away which is currently ZERO in the USA to my knowledge.

I am suggesting you let the economy move forward to the extent that hospitals don't turn people away. My method kills ZERO more people than a commie shutdown. People would still take personal responsibility for their safety and the curve would still be flatter, just not some snails pace lockdown.

Saying economic shutdowns save lives is correct, but only the fraction of the fraction of the fraction of the save-able people seeking treatment and can't get it. Saying economic shutdowns will save millions of lives is a total farce.

According to what data? The initial US projections death toll was 2.2 million (from the Imperial College,) and there were various projections after that. Some saying 4 million, some saying 6.

A report that helped convince Trump to take coronavirus seriously projected that 2.2 million people could die in the US if we don't act

The report from the Imperial College C0VlD-19 Response Team says we may need to close schools and isolate ourselves for months to halt the virus.

www.businessinsider.com

Now when you run those same numbers with the social distancing measures, these are the numbers you get:

Top economists are deriding the 'false choice' between saving lives from coronavirus and maximizing economic growth. Here's why the situation isn't so cut-and-dry.

The only way to rescue the economy is by ending the outbreak, which has shuttered businesses and forced millions of people to stay home.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Kak]

According to what data? The initial US projections death toll was 2.2 million (from the Imperial College,) and there were various projections after that. Some saying 4 million, some saying 6.

A report that helped convince Trump to take coronavirus seriously projected that 2.2 million people could die in the US if we don't act

The report from the Imperial College C0VlD-19 Response Team says we may need to close schools and isolate ourselves for months to halt the virus.

www.businessinsider.com

Now when you run those same numbers with the social distancing measures, these are the numbers you get:

View attachment 31993

Top economists are deriding the 'false choice' between saving lives from coronavirus and maximizing economic growth. Here's why the situation isn't so cut-and-dry.

The only way to rescue the economy is by ending the outbreak, which has shuttered businesses and forced millions of people to stay home.

www.businessinsider.com

Because saying projections are factual just because economists and "experts" say so doesn't give us a total case count or an accurate death rate.

What happens is that experts do their best to extrapolate given the data that they have... Then through telephone, people turn what they say into "undeniable fact" when the entire thing was built on shaky and unknown numbers to begin with.

If you prolong the economic carnage for 6 more months you aren't going to have an economy to come back to.

 

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[ChrisV]

Because saying projections are factual just because economists and "experts" say so doesn't give us a total case count or an accurate death rate.

Of course projections aren't perfect.. they're projections. But it's the best we have. Otherwise we're just relying on our intuition about what might happen.

 

[Kak]

Of course projections aren't perfect.. they're projections. But it's the best we have. Otherwise we're just relying on our intuition about what might happen.

First of all social distancing measures and total lockdowns are two different things. People will continue to socially distance on their own... Per their own comfort level.

My claims, with any projections, are correct... These measures only save lives to the extent that 1/3 of ultra severe, touch and go cases get turned away from hospitals.

THAT is the only true relationship between economy and COVID deaths.

CONTROLLED BURN is the way out. We must use unused hospital capacity.

More recoveries= further out of this mess.

 

[WillHurtDontCare]

Look out Keto people:

Coronavirus Hits Meat Plants as Some Workers Get Sick, Others Stay Home

The coronavirus pandemic is hitting U.S. meat operations, slowing and temporarily halting production at some plants as sickness and fear keep workers home.

www.wsj.com

 

[Vigilante]

Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.

 

[ChrisV]

Well I choose to listen to people who have spent their lives studying the spread of infectious disease.

Let's all agree to disagree.

The numbers have changed because of the various actions we've taken. The first rule of statistics is "always account for variable change."

But anyway..

/unfollowed again

 

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[Kak]

Well I choose to listen to people who have spent their lives studying the spread of infectious disease.

Let's all agree to disagree.

The numbers have changed because of the various actions we've taken. The first rule of statistics is "always account for variable change."

But anyway..

/unfollowed again

If no one has been denied a ventilator yet, the experts can't point to a single life saved by economic shutdown. On the other end of that spectrum we can point to more than 10 million out of work.

Last I checked, doctors aren't economists and economists aren't doctors...

I stand by this... The relationship between covid deaths and the economy comes down to ventilator availability. Something we have a HELL of a lot more of.

 

[ChrisV]

The relationship between covid deaths and the economy comes down to ventilator availability.

It's certainly a factor.

 

[Vigilante]

Well I choose to listen to people who have spent their lives studying the spread of infectious disease.

Let's all agree to disagree.

The numbers have changed because of the various actions we've taken. The first rule of statistics is "always account for variable change."

But anyway..

/unfollowed again

It's s a straw man argument. The two choices were :
1. The sky is falling or
2. The sky didn't fall because people wore facemasks

There's a third alternative. It wasn't what the media told you it was. Did people get sick? Yes. Did people die? Shitty, but yes. Was the entire population at dire risk of dying if they didn't bathe nightly in Purell?

Some areas have done so incredibly well that the virus was contained. Some of the measures were extreme, some worked, and some were an overkill power grab.

You have to be intellectually honest enough to look past the rhetoric at the results. The spread is slowing. We're not going to let the economy go towards totalitarianism to mitigate a virus war that is being methodically defeated. We'll be better prepared for future events, and we'll be better off personally and collectively for this scare.

 

[Kak]

Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.

Agree.

I didn't set out to grill @GIlman or find out where he has been wrong in the past or go on a fact checking mission. For the most part we agreed on how this is pretty messed up right now. The policy response has been downright frightening. He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.