Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Antifragile]

https://x.com/cryptomanran/status/1735322492732838228?s=46&t=QVRWd3GUWSHaaHwdvWGZPg

Supply chain attack targeting Ledger crypto wallet leaves users hacked​

Supply chain attack targeting Ledger crypto wallet leaves users hacked

Hackers compromised the code behind a crypto protocol used by multiple web3 applications and services, the software maker Ledger said on Thursday. Ledger, a company that makes a widely used and popular crypto hardware and software wallet, among other products, announced on X (previously...

ca.news.yahoo.com

 

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[NewManRising]

Fingers crossed this happens! I want to set up a NEOXA node and I don't have cash sitting around to do this until January. I'm planning on setting one up either way, so a nice discount on it would be much appreciated.

Between mining, and node payouts, I should be able to accumulate for a second node by summer 2024. If the bull run does indeed happen, 100% of node earnings will be sold into Fiat throughout the entire bull run. That's the plan anyways.

No matter what I am also going to sell 50% of mined earnings through the bull run (if it happens). I'm taking profits the whole run this time, no more sitting on stuff to watch it magically evaporate like 2020ish.

I also plan on selling a good half my hardware if there is a bull run. Hardware prices closely parallel crypto prices. I'd like to just kept my best equipment. Anything not absolutely prime will be sold. I will then accumulate hardware again during the next bear market. It's kind of a 3-4 year cycle for hardware as well, there could be a nice opportunity through that.

Even if it doesn't make a ton, I enjoy mining and tinkering, and this solves and quenches my need to accumulate and make purchases. I'd rather by computer hardware and tinker with it than spend my money on something that just 100% disappears like cars and toys and stuff do.

Well, think about this. Right now crypto is pumping hard across the board. These runs aren't going to keep going up forever. At some point people are going to take profits. If you want to buy, time it to buy after that happens. Patience and timing are everything when trading.

 

[AceVentures]

The whole idea of Bitcoin spot ETF does not make sense to me.

It doesn't make sense because the uptrend has nothing to do with a spot ETF. It's the market psychology that a spot ETF is good for price that makes people hold onto their coins which drives prices higher, not because a spot ETF meaningfully shifts trading volume and asset allocations.

It's game theory.

 

[EvanOkanagan]

It doesn't make sense because the uptrend has nothing to do with a spot ETF. It's the market psychology that a spot ETF is good for price that makes people hold onto their coins which drives prices higher, not because a spot ETF meaningfully shifts trading volume and asset allocations.

It's game theory.

Isn’t there a possibility that many people will invest retirement funds once this is launched (potentially many billions of dollars), thus increasing the market cap and along with it the price going up?

If that (somewhat likely scenario) happens won’t that increase the price? Or am I completely wrong on and missing how all this works?

 

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[Antifragile]

Isn’t there a possibility that many people will invest retirement funds once this is launched (potentially many billions of dollars), thus increasing the market cap and along with it the price going up?

If that (somewhat likely scenario) happens won’t that increase the price? Or am I completely wrong on and missing how all this works?

Correct, sort of…

A Bitcoin ETF is a type of exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin, allowing investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without actually owning it. It's like a digital gold ETF, but instead of gold, it's Bitcoin.

The main reason it's a big deal is because it could bring a lot of new money into the crypto market, as it would make it easier for institutional investors and regular folks to get involved. Imagine if your grandma could buy Bitcoin with her Charles Schwab account, that's the kind of accessibility we're talking about here.

Now, you might be thinking, "Wait a minute, I thought Bitcoin ETFs already existed." Well, you're not wrong, but you're not completely right either. In the U.S., the SEC has been playing hard to get with Bitcoin spot ETFs, which are the ones that directly track the price of Bitcoin. Instead, they've been more open to Bitcoin futures ETFs, which are based on Bitcoin futures contracts and not the actual price of Bitcoin. It's like wanting a chocolate cake but getting a chocolate chip cookie instead - it's still good, but it's not exactly what you wanted.


Edit: adding a little more from Twitter

"There are bunch of people, retirees, who will pick up the phone and say "put 5% of my assets in Bitcoin". It will be a 15 second phone call and they will hang up."

This is EXACTLY why this ETF changes everything.
My dad is exactly one of those retirees, who did this 2020. It took him 15 DAYS to get the Bitcoin, not 15 seconds. He tried Coinbase, failed KYC because they couldn't verify his address. Tried another exchange, but there was problems with the State of NY at that time.

He finally got on board with Gemini, but his general feeling was "Something this hard will never work".

Bitcoiners underestimate that the process of getting signed up Coinbase itself is beyond the attention span of most boomers. Absolutely forget non-custodial wallets, seed phrases, plates, multisig or any of that.

Ease of use does not guarantee a wall of money. But ease of use combined with a bull market means TradFi will come along for the ride. And that means inviting an Elephant into your living room. It tends to break things, crashing the market..UP

https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/1738421090622513387?s=46&t=QVRWd3GUWSHaaHwdvWGZPg

 

[AceVentures]

Isn’t there a possibility that many people will invest retirement funds once this is launched (potentially many billions of dollars), thus increasing the market cap and along with it the price going up?

If that (somewhat likely scenario) happens won’t that increase the price? Or am I completely wrong on and missing how all this works?

Yes there is a possibility.

"My dad is exactly one of those retirees, who did this 2020. It took him 15 DAYS to get the Bitcoin, not 15 seconds. He tried Coinbase, failed KYC because they couldn't verify his address. Tried another exchange, but there was problems with the State of NY at that time.

He finally got on board with Gemini, but his general feeling was "Something this hard will never work".

Bitcoiners underestimate that the process of getting signed up Coinbase itself is beyond the attention span of most boomers. Absolutely forget non-custodial wallets, seed phrases, plates, multisig or any of that."

The scenario this guy presents in his story isn't the norm imo. Couldn't verify address? Why? There are dozens and dozens of ways of getting your hands on BTC. The uber driver has a dashboard of information about his coin collection like Bruce Wayne would in his batcave. I don't think "boomers" are too dumb with too little of an attention-span to buy BTC.

My point is that if you want exposure to BTC you can find it in 2023. This isn't 2012. Everybody and their mother knows what a BTC is.

I'm not saying there isn't more money that can flow into this asset class. I'm just saying it's less likely that it's the ETF that's holding back funds from getting exposure to BTC and more likely that it's the market psychology that creates this narrative of an internet-dumb boomer that explains the hype around the ETF.

 

[Antifragile]

My point is that if you want exposure to BTC you can find it in 2023. This isn't 2012. Everybody and their mother knows what a BTC is.

The choice of words here is important. Sounds like you are disagreeing but maybe you aren’t.

Here’s me putting it another way: it’ll be 10x easier for a boomer to have exposure to BTC with the spot ETF.

That’s like when eBay went from cheque payers to PayPal payments. Kind of a big deal if you ask me.

 

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[NewManRising]

I don't see the Bitcoin ETF as a good thing at all. It's for the dummies. All it is doing is making people trade for fiat, which has no long term value or potential. People will trade fiat while the creators of the ETF will stack BTC. It's also going to pull capital away from the crypto market, thus weakening it.

I wonder if their wallet(s) will be made public so others can audit it and see if they actually own the BTC they claim to have?

All that is happening with this release is giving the banks the opportunity to liquidate capital from the market and enrich themselves. Manage your own wealth. Like precious metals, you want the actual metal in your possession. You want crypto in your own wallet.

 

[NewManRising]

The choice of words here is important. Sounds like you are disagreeing but maybe you aren’t.

Here’s me putting it another way: it’ll be 10x easier for a boomer to have exposure to BTC with the spot ETF.

That’s like when eBay went from cheque payers to PayPal payments. Kind of a big deal if you ask me.

Boomers aren't going to be investing in this. They are too scared now and BTC/crypto is too complicated for them to understand. This is meant for the younger crowd. They aren't actually owning any BTC, so it's not exposing them to the crypto market. They are trading for fiat.

 

[NewManRising]

Correct, sort of…

A Bitcoin ETF is a type of exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin, allowing investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without actually owning it. It's like a digital gold ETF, but instead of gold, it's Bitcoin.

The main reason it's a big deal is because it could bring a lot of new money into the crypto market, as it would make it easier for institutional investors and regular folks to get involved. Imagine if your grandma could buy Bitcoin with her Charles Schwab account, that's the kind of accessibility we're talking about here.

Now, you might be thinking, "Wait a minute, I thought Bitcoin ETFs already existed." Well, you're not wrong, but you're not completely right either. In the U.S., the SEC has been playing hard to get with Bitcoin spot ETFs, which are the ones that directly track the price of Bitcoin. Instead, they've been more open to Bitcoin futures ETFs, which are based on Bitcoin futures contracts and not the actual price of Bitcoin. It's like wanting a chocolate cake but getting a chocolate chip cookie instead - it's still good, but it's not exactly what you wanted.


Edit: adding a little more from Twitter

"There are bunch of people, retirees, who will pick up the phone and say "put 5% of my assets in Bitcoin". It will be a 15 second phone call and they will hang up."

This is EXACTLY why this ETF changes everything.
My dad is exactly one of those retirees, who did this 2020. It took him 15 DAYS to get the Bitcoin, not 15 seconds. He tried Coinbase, failed KYC because they couldn't verify his address. Tried another exchange, but there was problems with the State of NY at that time.

He finally got on board with Gemini, but his general feeling was "Something this hard will never work".

Bitcoiners underestimate that the process of getting signed up Coinbase itself is beyond the attention span of most boomers. Absolutely forget non-custodial wallets, seed phrases, plates, multisig or any of that.

Ease of use does not guarantee a wall of money. But ease of use combined with a bull market means TradFi will come along for the ride. And that means inviting an Elephant into your living room. It tends to break things, crashing the market..UP

https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/1738421090622513387?s=46&t=QVRWd3GUWSHaaHwdvWGZPg

A lot of these points are dumb, not the norm, and speculative. Boomers are not taking risks late in their life. They aren't investing in things they do not know. For the boomers that get manipulated, they will lose a lot of all their retirement money. This ETF does not help the crypto market. It's about creating wealth for the banks and the creators of the ETF.

 

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[NewManRising]

Yes there is a possibility.



The scenario this guy presents in his story isn't the norm imo. Couldn't verify address? Why? There are dozens and dozens of ways of getting your hands on BTC. The uber driver has a dashboard of information about his coin collection like Bruce Wayne would in his batcave. I don't think "boomers" are too dumb with too little of an attention-span to buy BTC.

My point is that if you want exposure to BTC you can find it in 2023. This isn't 2012. Everybody and their mother knows what a BTC is.

I'm not saying there isn't more money that can flow into this asset class. I'm just saying it's less likely that it's the ETF that's holding back funds from getting exposure to BTC and more likely that it's the market psychology that creates this narrative of an internet-dumb boomer that explains the hype around the ETF.

He's one of those people that wants to buy in early, get the hype going so there is a hard pump, and then it all flatlines. Ignore all the hype, let the suckers get drained. This is an opportunity for those late on crypto or too broke to invest anything meaningful into it. That is why they are so invested in promoting it and hyping it. We all know what new coins, stocks and ETFs do when they are released. They pump and then crash. The inside traders, early investors, and semi-experienced traders all already bought in and are going to drain grandma's bank account (or so they hope).

 

[Antifragile]

@AceVentures
Thinking more about this topic, I struggle to see a scenario where in a short term BTC doesn’t pump with the approval of spot-ETFs.

Let me try to debate this with you.

BTC is known as a “digital gold” and now it’s known even by the boomers. But they won’t go out and get a cold storage wallet as many of them go to the bank in person to handle banking needs. It’s just too damn complicated for them to think about this without someone doing it for them. As I posted above, it’ll be 10x easier and therefore the sub-set of older people with money will ask their financial advisors to “get them some Bitcoins”.

That argument stands but it’s weak compared to this: ETF would be sold not bought. Think like the Wolf of Wallstreet movie, a whole ton of investment bankers wanting to make their commissions and annual bonuses. It’ll be sold by the people who are absolutely the best at selling! The hype will create the next boom-bust cycle, but the hype it’ll be.

And remember, there is built in free marketing for BTC in ’24, the next halving event. Sure, from 3% to 1.5% isn’t the 2012 of 25% to 12.5%… but free marketing is free.

And… Bitcoin holders today are the ones who held on through the valley and didn’t sell, they won’t sell. Current holders are the ultimate diamond hands. Until the price shoots up, that is…



Long term, I am not a BTC maxi, I am still (typically and permanently) confused as to how it’s supposed to function when halving events create less and less incentives to the miners. At some point something will have to change for the proof of work. Will it all just get super expensive for any transaction? What’s the use then? Or will it move to something beyond 21 million? Or proof-of-stake protocol? All contra BTC narrative today.

On top of that, at least for the USA, you have some hard liners against crypto in power today - E. Warren… very vocal and politically stable.


This post is time stamped, let’s revisit in a year and see how wrong or right I was, it’s a handshake bet on my part stating that I see at least a 2x pump in BTC in 2024, surpassing the previous ATH and predicated on approval of the spot ETFs by the SEC in Jan.


It goes without saying for anyone who’s seen my regular posts on this forum that I view crypto and BTC as very speculative, gamble like “investments”. For all new readers, I’ll repeat that I wouldn’t put into it anymore than one is willing to lose entirely. I love the space and technology in it, if you want to become rich, create a business and start adding value to your fellow humans. Buying shitcoins and talking smack on this thread should be for fun.

 

[Kevin88660]

Just like S&P there is too much expectation in crypto price that Fed will start easing.

If I were Fed I will not raise rates but keep rates elevated high.

The issue is ongoing risk asset rally actually prevents me from doing easing. I want to ease while the market is weak so that it can go up and tighten while the market remains strong to give way to next round of easing when the economy goes weaker.

If the market is strong there is no need for me to take the medication and risk inflation (side effect) going back high.

I ll just keep rates strong until the market loses hope or there is signs of crisis in the economy. Think of playing a game and you are trying to not waste your ammo. When you are at zero rates you are almost out of ammo to save the economy.

There is also a saying that the Trillion dollar deficit and gov debt cannot survive in this high rate environment. But this can be easily circumvented by Fed perpetually offering line of credit to the government only.

 

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[Antifragile]

Just like S&P there is too much expectation in crypto price that Fed will start easing.

If I were Fed I will not raise rates but keep rates elevated high.

The issue is ongoing risk asset rally actually prevents me from doing easing. I want to ease while the market is weak so that it can go up and tighten while the market remains strong to give way to next round of easing when the economy goes weaker.

If the market is strong there is no need for me to take the medication and risk inflation (side effect) going back high.

I ll just keep rates strong until the market loses hope or there is signs of crisis in the economy. Think of playing a game and you are trying to not waste your ammo. When you are at zero rates you are almost out of ammo to save the economy.

There is also a saying that the Trillion dollar deficit and gov debt cannot survive in this high rate environment. But this can be easily circumvented by Fed perpetually offering line of credit to the government only.

 

[Kevin88660]

View attachment 53141

If the Fed offers credit extension to the federal government and relies on government deficits to prop up the economy, this game can go longer without necessarily lowering rates. If the economy is strong and people and companies receive income and revenue to service the debt payment interest payment, it could go longer.

Of course, there is another huge systematic risk to the broader economy when doing this.

Think of a hypothetical example where the Federal Reserve perpetually lends to the federal government at 5% to finance the deficit. This deficit is used to throw at government contractors, and they will have money to pay for the suppliers and employees, relying on the Keynesian multiplier to keep the economy running hot.

If there is a specific sectors risk going down, there is always options on the table to bail out the industry ONLY, doing QE surgically at one spot, instead of lowering the broad interest rate.

 

[Antifragile]

I’m reading Messari Crypro Theses 2024

Here’s a relevant to my argument page:

 

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[AceVentures]

@AceVentures
Thinking more about this topic, I struggle to see a scenario where in a short term BTC doesn’t pump with the approval of spot-ETFs.

Let me try to debate this with you.

BTC is known as a “digital gold” and now it’s known even by the boomers. But they won’t go out and get a cold storage wallet as many of them go to the bank in person to handle banking needs. It’s just too damn complicated for them to think about this without someone doing it for them. As I posted above, it’ll be 10x easier and therefore the sub-set of older people with money will ask their financial advisors to “get them some Bitcoins”.

That argument stands but it’s weak compared to this: ETF would be sold not bought. Think like the Wolf of Wallstreet movie, a whole ton of investment bankers wanting to make their commissions and annual bonuses. It’ll be sold by the people who are absolutely the best at selling! The hype will create the next boom-bust cycle, but the hype it’ll be.

And remember, there is built in free marketing for BTC in ’24, the next halving event. Sure, from 3% to 1.5% isn’t the 2012 of 25% to 12.5%… but free marketing is free.

And… Bitcoin holders today are the ones who held on through the valley and didn’t sell, they won’t sell. Current holders are the ultimate diamond hands. Until the price shoots up, that is…



Long term, I am not a BTC maxi, I am still (typically and permanently) confused as to how it’s supposed to function when halving events create less and less incentives to the miners. At some point something will have to change for the proof of work. Will it all just get super expensive for any transaction? What’s the use then? Or will it move to something beyond 21 million? Or proof-of-stake protocol? All contra BTC narrative today.

On top of that, at least for the USA, you have some hard liners against crypto in power today - E. Warren… very vocal and politically stable.


This post is time stamped, let’s revisit in a year and see how wrong or right I was, it’s a handshake bet on my part stating that I see at least a 2x pump in BTC in 2024, surpassing the previous ATH and predicated on approval of the spot ETFs by the SEC in Jan.


It goes without saying for anyone who’s seen my regular posts on this forum that I view crypto and BTC as very speculative, gamble like “investments”. For all new readers, I’ll repeat that I wouldn’t put into it anymore than one is willing to lose entirely. I love the space and technology in it, if you want to become rich, create a business and start adding value to your fellow humans. Buying shitcoins and talking smack on this thread should be for fun.

I don’t disagree with you on any of that.

My point was that the ETFs impact on the market is more psychological than there being a meaningful demand sidelined because of an inability caused by a lack of a spot ETF.

I’m also not married to that take. I was just noticing the game theory in action.

Hopefully there is a meaningful demand that’s just waiting to get in, but the lack of a spot ETF is holding them back.

 

[Kevin88660]

I don’t disagree with you on any of that.

My point was that the ETFs impact on the market is more psychological than there being a meaningful demand sidelined because of an inability caused by a lack of a spot ETF.

I’m also not married to that take. I was just noticing the game theory in action.

Hopefully there is a meaningful demand that’s just waiting to get in, but the lack of a spot ETF is holding them back.

Michael Saylor will try hard again to sell the dream to more traditional institutional investors and corporate treasury departments.

In comparison Solona pump in price has a lot of strong fundamental underpinning it.

 

[Antifragile]

Solona pump in price has a lot of strong fundamental underpinning it.

Care to elaborate? Seems like fees are subsidized to make it viable. How’s it going to work long term?

I’m sure Sol will be around for a while, but this pump feels too big to be explained in “fundamentals” only, I see hype around it.

 

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[Kevin88660]

Care to elaborate? Seems like fees are subsidized to make it viable. How’s it going to work long term?

I’m sure Sol will be around for a while, but this pump feels too big to be explained in “fundamentals” only, I see hype around it.

A lot of projects and community are developing over there. For layer one blockchain activities determine value. Long term sustainability depends on whether they can avoid the issue happened in bsc network. BSC network’s low fee has attracted a lot of scammers and pump and dump projects. So as time went by serious developers avoided bsc chain. This leads fo serious players and investors avoiding bsc chain projects as well.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GAO1DF3vZlk&t=23s&pp=ygUTV2h5IGkgYW0gYnV5aW5nIHNvbA%3D%3D

 

[Mineralogic]

Just like S&P there is too much expectation in crypto price that Fed will start easing.

If I were Fed I will not raise rates but keep rates elevated high.

The issue is ongoing risk asset rally actually prevents me from doing easing. I want to ease while the market is weak so that it can go up and tighten while the market remains strong to give way to next round of easing when the economy goes weaker.

If the market is strong there is no need for me to take the medication and risk inflation (side effect) going back high.

I ll just keep rates strong until the market loses hope or there is signs of crisis in the economy. Think of playing a game and you are trying to not waste your ammo. When you are at zero rates you are almost out of ammo to save the economy.

There is also a saying that the Trillion dollar deficit and gov debt cannot survive in this high rate environment. But this can be easily circumvented by Fed perpetually offering line of credit to the government only.

either way, buy good enterprise level crypto which is the next phase of crypto and scaling/utility
QNT, HBAR, LINK, MATIC, ICP, TRAC, for example.

BTC to me is an ancient technology and not something I want, it's a cult at this point

 

[Timmy C]

I think Ethereum isn't a bad play, if BTC is looking at an approval soon, what's likely to get approved months later?

It seems crypto is just staying ahead of what a future narrative will be.

Myswell buy the meme coins aswell.

I bought Harry potter obama sonic coin for the lolz.

My friend sent it to me a while ago and I think it's the future currency.

 

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[Timmy C]

BTC to me is an ancient technology and not something I want, it's a cult at this point

It being a cult is why I haven't sold any.

 

[Antifragile]

You know there is something to be said about this thread as a barometer for crypto hype. During the peak it was buzzing 10x a day with the latest and greatest shitcoin and even got into a split thread over to NFTs. All that buzz was all euphoria as everyone was buying, selling, mining, minting, bragging and so on.

Arguably the biggest news for Crypto is a bridge between the TradFI and BTC through this proposed ETF. It's not for millennials or younger, everyone there knows how to buy a BTC and know about L2s lol. But here's the thing, there isn't any buzz here, it's a bit of an island of a few members.

ETF will legitimize the BTC to the boomers and allow Wall St guys to make killer commissions. There's also a race to who'll dominate the AUM game.

Again, not much chatter here... a few words here and there. Likewise @Timmy C is mentioning something quite important but does it in a joking way. ETH isn't dead, it's next in line. If it's used as a major highway for institutional adoption of blockchain tech... or will SOL win? Whoever the case may be, I'll say this: we have been in a bull market for months now and this thread didn't even "notice".

That's comforting to know, as the inflation, high interest rates and general feeling out there - life is harder. Free government money has already been spent, who's got more to throw on a gamble?

ETF market is over $100BL, what if only 0.5% goes into the BTC ETG? Still a bullish indicator.

However, Grayscale may liquidate all and drive price down. And let's face it, it's VERY HARD to argue that institutional guys AND retail guys didn't front run the news on BTC ETF and the recent pump is priced in the news.

Buy on the rumour, sell on the news. Right?

Who's to say that those who front run it last 3 months aren't going to lock in their profits? Why wouldn't BTC drop a good 30% shortly after some pump on the ETF news?

That's just the thing. No one knows and outside of the internet "gurus" who like to pump their agenda, there isn't a consensus!

My "prediction", well... it is just a wild a$$ guess! My thinking is only backed by the fact that I know Wall St is about commissions and they'll want to get the AUM as high as possible as quickly as possible. Same folks there are damn smart too, they will look for way to manipulate prices to get the best deal too! I really can't imagine them going into an all out war with each other and buying up all BTC they can get their hands on. In that situation, it'll pump to $500K! And none of those guys would be buyers (IMO) even at the new ALH... so there's to be expected some moderation.

This thread's lack of activity give me more confidence that we aren't in an over-hyped season yet and that the next 12 months (not 12 days, or weeks LOL) is when we'll see the new ALH BTC price.

Thanks for reading .

 

[Mineralogic]

You know there is something to be said about this thread as a barometer for crypto hype. During the peak it was buzzing 10x a day with the latest and greatest shitcoin and even got into a split thread over to NFTs. All that buzz was all euphoria as everyone was buying, selling, mining, minting, bragging and so on.

Arguably the biggest news for Crypto is a bridge between the TradFI and BTC through this proposed ETF. It's not for millennials or younger, everyone there knows how to buy a BTC and know about L2s lol. But here's the thing, there isn't any buzz here, it's a bit of an island of a few members.

ETF will legitimize the BTC to the boomers and allow Wall St guys to make killer commissions. There's also a race to who'll dominate the AUM game.

Again, not much chatter here... a few words here and there. Likewise @Timmy C is mentioning something quite important but does it in a joking way. ETH isn't dead, it's next in line. If it's used as a major highway for institutional adoption of blockchain tech... or will SOL win? Whoever the case may be, I'll say this: we have been in a bull market for months now and this thread didn't even "notice".

That's comforting to know, as the inflation, high interest rates and general feeling out there - life is harder. Free government money has already been spent, who's got more to throw on a gamble?

ETF market is over $100BL, what if only 0.5% goes into the BTC ETG? Still a bullish indicator.

However, Grayscale may liquidate all and drive price down. And let's face it, it's VERY HARD to argue that institutional guys AND retail guys didn't front run the news on BTC ETF and the recent pump is priced in the news.

Buy on the rumour, sell on the news. Right?

Who's to say that those who front run it last 3 months aren't going to lock in their profits? Why wouldn't BTC drop a good 30% shortly after some pump on the ETF news?

That's just the thing. No one knows and outside of the internet "gurus" who like to pump their agenda, there isn't a consensus!

My "prediction", well... it is just a wild a$$ guess! My thinking is only backed by the fact that I know Wall St is about commissions and they'll want to get the AUM as high as possible as quickly as possible. Same folks there are damn smart too, they will look for way to manipulate prices to get the best deal too! I really can't imagine them going into an all out war with each other and buying up all BTC they can get their hands on. In that situation, it'll pump to $500K! And none of those guys would be buyers (IMO) even at the new ALH... so there's to be expected some moderation.

This thread's lack of activity give me more confidence that we aren't in an over-hyped season yet and that the next 12 months (not 12 days, or weeks LOL) is when we'll see the new ALH BTC price.

Thanks for reading .

Wall st loses all credibility if they dont support the product they r selling

 

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[Antifragile]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="qme" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BTC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#BTC</a> <a href="https://t.co/wm7qGkNoPN">pic.twitter.com/wm7qGkNoPN</a></p>&mdash; naiive (@naiivememe) <a href="

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741302783113093267

View: https://twitter.com/naiivememe/status/1741302783113093267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
">December 31, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Jon822]

View: https://media.giphy.com/media/3xkNUy3Vh8QbPmJZjK/giphy.gif

Me watching this thread every time it resurfaces.

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

View: https://media.giphy.com/media/3xkNUy3Vh8QbPmJZjK/giphy.gif

Me watching this thread every time it resurfaces.

while you watching others are getting richer and richer

 

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[Jon822]

while you watching others are getting richer and richer

What is your net profit?

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

What is your net profit?

more than last year and less than next year!!