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Why I think Bitcoin will be dead in 2041 unless it evolves

Ashish Kulkarni

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Bitcoin price is volatile. Same is true for all currencies - crypto and traditional. I will not go into the reasons for that.

So far approximately, 17.2 million Bitcoins have been mined. And there is a hard limit of 21 million.

There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins.

How consensus for Bitcoin transactions - A pays X Bitcoin to B - is achieved is by mining. Without consensus, A would be able to pay the same X Bitcoin to B, C, D and Z.

Once there are no more Bitcoin to be mined, I see the mining activity becoming futile. And with that, I can see Bitcoin's world crashing down.

Why 2041? Because it is predicted that the last Bitcoin will be mined in 2040. It will probably use the same electricity needed to power the US for a month. But that is predicted.

So unless, Bitcoin evolves and starts using alternate consensus mechanism(s), I feel it will be dead in 2041.

Does anyone else think differently?

Best regards,

Ashish.
 

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nitrousflame

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Once there are no more Bitcoin to be mined, I see the mining activity becoming futile.
Miners are not only rewarded with newly found Bitcoin, but also with all of the transaction fees contained in the mined block. Thus, even after all Bitcoin are mined, miners will still be rewarded with transaction fees.

Why 2041? Because it is predicted that the last Bitcoin will be mined in 2040.
I think you missed a 1 in there. The 21 millionth Bitcoin isn't predicted to be mined until ~2140.
 

Timmy C

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not worried about over 100 years from now i got some more bitcoin a few days ago.

I am staying away from the cheap hot alts atm i have enough, just gonna wait now till we have another bull run.

Does MJ hold crypto?
 
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Ashish Kulkarni

Ashish Kulkarni

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Thanks guys for correcting me.

In that case, I feel the whole mining paradigm needs to get smarter. Otherwise we will be spending billions of megawatts between now and 2140 mining.

I am sure MJ has a stash saved up.

I hope there is a bull run too for my personal gain.
 

Captain_Picard

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not worried about over 100 years from now i got some more bitcoin a few days ago.

I am staying away from the cheap hot alts atm i have enough, just gonna wait now till we have another bull run.

Does MJ hold crypto?
Yes, he has Bitcoin and some other altcoins. He mentioned that in his wealth equation detailing his net worth, it was mentioned here:

GOLD! - How to create monetary wealth in just 5 years. (Or less!)

Bitcoin (original Big daddy)
Ethereum (smart contracts)
Altcoins
Altcoins

There are some other ones that may have utility such as tracking product origin via the blockchain. PWC invested in VeChain. There are some that are useful in disrupting the control of advertising giants, like PRL, ADX, and BAT (Inventor of JavaScript/Mozilla Firefox). If you do affiliate marketing via a blog or news site, there are restrictions on what you can write about. They have some that use point of sale payment solutions either using a debit card or an app (TEN, OMG). These would come in handy for places like Venezuela (DASH) and Turkey. People may not have a bank account or enough money to pay for necessities, but they will certainly have a cell phone or cell phone access in some way. Bitcoin itself can hedge against hyperinflation and Bitcoin Cash can hedge against Bitcoin. There are also shitcoins like Litecoin that have legacy status and DOGE which is a fork of Litecoin, kind of a joke coin, but it also has legacy status. There are also trending coins that match Asian culture like GTO gift stickers for celebrity worship (hyperreality of the sidewalking masses). There are also platforms for fog computing like NEO which fits with the decentralized concept, possibly DragonChain as well.
 

MJ DeMarco

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nitrousflame

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In that case, I feel the whole mining paradigm needs to get smarter. Otherwise we will be spending billions of megawatts between now and 2140 mining.
Other consensus algorithms exist in addition to Bitcoin's current proof of work (PoW), such as proof of stake (PoS), which among other things, could reduce the network power consumption. That said, it's all a matter of perspective. Even with the current level of Bitcoin hash power, the network still consumes less power than the banks of the world:

Electricity is 90 percent of the cost to mine bitcoin. As such, bitcoin mining uses ... somewhere between an estimated 30 terrawatt hours alone in 2017 alone.

Indeed, this is a lot, but not exorbitant. Banking consumes an estimated 100 terrawatts of power annually. If bitcoin technology were to mature by more than 100 times its current market size, it would still equal only 2 percent of all energy consumption.
Source: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-energy-bitcoin.html#jCp
 

Mazzolini

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Other consensus algorithms exist in addition to Bitcoin's current proof of work (PoW), such as proof of stake (PoS), which among other things, could reduce the network power consumption. That said, it's all a matter of perspective. Even with the current level of Bitcoin hash power, the network still consumes less power than the banks of the world:


Source: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-energy-bitcoin.html#jCp
Yes Ethereum is planning on moving to full POS which does not require wasting energy to confirm transactions. Also all 21 million Bitcoin will not be mined by 2041 because the difficulty adjusts every 1056 blocks that ensures it will last around at least 100 years. Even if you came out with a computer tomorrow that was 100x as powerful as the latest google super computer the bitcoin network would readjust to that computers processing power.

also transactions fees pay miners to solve blocks. Transactions are stored in blocks.

FUN Fact: Because it costs more and more electricity to mine bitcoin blocks every time it readjusts to a higher difficulty, bitcoin inheritly increases in value because it costs more to create it. Why is gold so valuable? Because there is a limited supply and it holds value. Bitcoin is mathematically limited in supply and you can transfer it across the globe in minutes with no chance of governments intervention AND it can be stored as data in your head.
 
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kelvinfernandezm

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It's hard to predict the future of bitcoin in the next ten years let alone in the next 20 years. What if we have a new breed of computers ten years from now? What if a new cryptocurrency backed up by banks and governments overtakes all the others?

Also new algorithms to run a blockchain may be created. So far we have three. You can use Proof of Work (PoW), Proof of Stake (PoS) and Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS). Bitcoin uses Proof of Work. Proof of Stake actually uses less electricity and processing power.

I have a sibling who is obsessed over cryptocurrencies. I got him into it cryptocurrencies before the bull run at the end of 2017 and his earnings rose all the way to three figures and back down again. But seen those three figures in his coinbase account for 4 weeks imprinted way too hard on him. Now he has paralyzed himself by completely becoming engrossed in cryptocurrencies.

He has no skills, never went to college and works at a dead end job. But his faith in cryptocurrency going back up is so strong nothing I can say will snap him out of it. He's so sure that it will go back up again. All the money he makes he invests in cryptocurrencies. I have tried to tell him to stop gambling his time with cryptocurrencies. He's literally just sitting around all day looking at graphs waiting for them to go back up again.

During that time he could be learning a useful skill or starting a company to make even more money to invest. But he's not.

So my advice to you is to not worry too much about the future of cryptocurrency and only worry about your future. That means doing something today that will generate money for you tomorrow and that you have complete control over.
 

AlexVilch

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I feel like Bitcoin is just a small ant in the world of blockchain which is constantly evolving. But to answer your question:

1) I don't feel like bitcoin (network) will die
2) I do feel it will get improved as technology advances. We already have the lightning network that is being worked on.
3) I do not care what will happen in 2041 nor in 2140. Market changes every day/week

P.S. I do hold a bunch of bitcoins (>100).
 

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