The Misery Portfolio

[MJ DeMarco]

Funny I type in "Misery Portfolio" at Google and this thread comes up #1.

 

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[biophase]

What is it worth today?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

what is it worth today?

186,344.47

 

[hakrjak]

So what's the lesson learned here? You picked some of the most worthless stocks anyone could have imagined, and they have almost tripled in value at this point... haha... What's the message we're to walk away with here?

- Hakrjak

 

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[unicon]

Assuming the 70k was borrowed on the Ides of March, you now have a 665% annual return if liquidated today.

The market was timed to the upside.

Now take the 116k profit and buy puts leveraging 20 to 1 timing the market back downward. Assuming the next 3 months and a 2 million gain over 6 months total. Pulling a Mark Cuban. What do you know - a 3000% return for 6 months - the Super Leveraged Standard.

The real challenge is to time the market downward after timing it upward - this is maximum acceleration.

 

[hakrjak]

I don't think you got that the point of this portfolio was to show how much money these stocks would lose, how bad things would get -- And they actually ended up making money. So there were no profits from this -- Because the point was for you to short this portfolio if you wanted to play it.

- Hakrjak

 

[unicon]

March 4 was the clear bottom of the market, personally I watch the market whether I am in or out and the most important indicators to determine the market turn.

I almost invested real money at that exact timing, it was almost impossible to short the market at that timing. The market was so low it was begging for an investment. The turn was a real opportunity. I did not play it.

The purchases on March 4 were clearly long positions!

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Unless I missed some sort of reverse split, the $10,000 AIG Investment in this portfolio is now worth over $305,000. The Misery Portfolio itself, even with GM's bankruptcy, is now worth over $450,000.

Howz that for MISERY!

 

[kwerner]

Yes, AIG had a 1:20 reverse split a couple weeks ago.

 

[Russ H]

What is it worth today?

MJ? Counting the 20:1 reverse split?

As someone who completely sucks at market investing (and doesn't do it), I've followed this thread w/interest.

-Russ H.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

My quick calculation is $251,000 and thats with the AIG split and GM at 0.



LVS up 630%
F up 430%
C up 176%
BAC up 311%
AMR up 163%

 

[andviv]

just curious... what's the value as of today?

This thread taught me a lot about how little I know about the market...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

I get $348,357

This is with GM at 0 and the AIG reverse 1:20 split.

 

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[hakrjak]

Hey MJ,

You never answered my ? about what lesson you think we should walk away with from this excercise.

Even when you think you've nailed the perfect stocks for shorting, you can still lose your shorts on them? LOL... How F'd up this market is??

- Hakrjak

 

[sswift]

Again! lets do it again with other companies...

 

[CommonCents]

near term support(lipstick on a pig) is the government owns 7.7 billion shares of CITI to get rid of (as well as exiting GM) and need Citi to be above $5 for broader institutional participation, and the midterm elections are very important to the current administration. The markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent! Especially with the govt taking such a larger direct role in business these days.

Like poker, I've learned to lessen trading based on my cards and what is showing but rather play based on tells of the other players.

 

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[andviv]

near term support(lipstick on a pig) is the government owns 7.7 billion shares of CITI to get rid of (as well as exiting GM) and need Citi to be above $5 for broader institutional participation, and the midterm elections are very important to the current administration. The markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent! Especially with the govt taking such a larger direct role in business these days.

Like poker, I've learned to lessen trading based on my cards and what is showing but rather play based on tells of the other players.

so, in English... your guess is that the market will continue to go up until CITI reaches $5 OR November, whichever comes first?

 

[Edge]

I think in light of the times, we should start a "euphoria portfolio". It should include stocks such as Pier 1 (PIR), which is up 7690% from the March 09 lows! That's right, people will buy $50 candles and $100 throw pillows to fill a house that they can't pay the mortgage on. It should climb forever!

 

[ITiTanium02I]

Those were some great misery picks. Had I of been on here when you posted this I would of suggested MGM in your picks since LVS and MGM trade at nearly an exact mirror of each other. Do you still have this misery portfolio going?

 

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[TK1]

I wonder what happened to the misery portfolio

 

[MonTexan]

I wonder what happened to the misery portfolio

Pulling the figures from MJ's original post into a spreadsheet and looking up current values here's what I come up with:



Not too bad...so who went all in?? :bgh:

 

[Rickson9]

Speaking from personal experience, investing during times of distress is probably the easiest way to build wealth. IMHO.

 

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[socaldude]

Speaking from personal experience, investing during times of distress is probably the easiest way to build wealth. IMHO.

This has been proven. The fear of pain(losing money) is A LOT more powerful than the hope for pleasure(gaining money).

Would you rather take a coin toss chance of winning 10k or losing 10k. Most people would opt out I bet.

 

[nzerinto]

Pulling the figures from MJ's original post into a spreadsheet and looking up current values here's what I come up with:

View attachment 4379

Not too bad...so who went all in?? :bgh:

Wow that's impressive. A little over 3 years...crazy how much can change...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Wow that's impressive. A little over 3 years...crazy how much can change..

These numbers are not accurate as they are not split adjusted. It's still a great return, but not 1800%.

 

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[oddball]

These numbers are not accurate as they are not split adjusted. It's still a great return, but not 1800%.

I was in the middle of checking to see where the splits where and decided to finished reading posts, you obviously beat me to it.

 

[biophase]

Anybody care to update this to see what this portfolio is worth today?

 

[IAmTheJeff]

Wait a second, was this an actual investment, or just a "practice" one - like I did in high school?

 

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[jrace4fun]

Anybody care to update this to see what this portfolio is worth today?

April 8th 2014

Company Shares Price Value
Citigroup 8264 $46.60 $385102.40
BOA 2695 $16.44 $44305.80
LVS 4587 $76.60 $351364.20
AIG 22635 $50.04 $1132655.40
Ford 5319 $16.10 $85635.90
GM 4673 $34.53 $161358.69

Total $2,169,422.39
Percent Gain 3086%

 

[AroundTheWorld]

Haha.... I forgot about this thread.

@jrace4fun - did you adjust for splits?