The Big Collapse

[nickfisher]

I have been introduced to a few blogs regarding the end of the financial system in the west. Sovereign Man: Internationalization, Offshore Business, Global Opportunities, Self-Sufficiency and Freedom and Dollar Collapse, Expatriation, PT Theory, Prior Taxpayer Theory in particular. These guys are ( and with a lot of back up I must say) saying that countries like the US, Aus, Uk etc are, in the next few years, going to have a market crash and dollar collapse that rivals that of Zimbabwe. All the government borrowing and not being able to make its budgets balance, plus all the benefits it cant afford. The numbers are right. It cant go on much longer. It seems inevitable.

The Dollar Vigilante is my favourite site.

â€A dollar vigilante is a free market individual who protests the government monopoly on money and financial policies such as fractional reserve banking and un-backed fiat currencies by selling those same fiat currencies in favor of other assets, often including gold and precious metals.â€

Im keen to get some opinions of some entrepreneurs in this forum - and see if it even bothers / interests / scares them. Im quite interested in this topic, and welcome a good chat with some smart individuals about this.

Cheers guys.

 

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[Runum]

I have been introduced to a few blogs regarding the end of the financial system in the west. Sovereign Man: Internationalization, Offshore Business, Global Opportunities, Self-Sufficiency and Freedom and Dollar Collapse, Expatriation, PT Theory, Prior Taxpayer Theory in particular. These guys are ( and with a lot of back up I must say) saying that countries like the US, Aus, Uk etc are, in the next few years, going to have a market crash and dollar collapse that rivals that of Zimbabwe. All the government borrowing and not being able to make its budgets balance, plus all the benefits it cant afford. The numbers are right. It cant go on much longer. It seems inevitable.

The Dollar Vigilante is my favourite site.

”A dollar vigilante is a free market individual who protests the government monopoly on money and financial policies such as fractional reserve banking and un-backed fiat currencies by selling those same fiat currencies in favor of other assets, often including gold and precious metals.”

Im keen to get some opinions of some entrepreneurs in this forum - and see if it even bothers / interests / scares them. Im quite interested in this topic, and welcome a good chat with some smart individuals about this.

Cheers guys.

IMHO it's going to be tough for this discussion to go very far with out getting into a political discussion. And we all know political discussions are not allowed here. Just a friendly reminder.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

and see if it even bothers / interests / scares them.

Yes, I'm positioning myself for it's possibility. While I think the odds are low, so are the odds of getting in a car accident or getting cancer-- I have insurance for both.

 

[healthstatus]

The same kind of talk has been going on since the mid-70's (that I am aware of), and as MJ points out, that doesn't mean it won't happen, but there have been doom and gloom prognosticators around for a long time. (read Revelations in the Bible for the ultimate doom scenario)

 

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[Vigilante]

I have a friend that is an investment analyst for 50+ millionaires. He's a super intellect... a certified MENSA genius and some times he has difficulty relating to people because he is so analytical, and maybe brilliant.

You can't get him to talk about his future prediction often, in part because his view would freak out his portfolio clients.

Based on his analysis of the United States economy... he believes that it is absolutely inevitable that the United States will enter into hyper inflation. It's not a question of IF, but WHEN... and he believes it is likely within the next decade. There will be a triggering event, such as China calling the notes that they hold as due with no extension.

So he started telling me about hyperinflation, and what that means. A true analysis of that is enough to send chills down anyone's spine.

What would your life be like if the US dollar went to worthless over night? If the ATM machines all were taken off line? If the $3,000,000 you had in the bank was now worth $10 --- but that wouldn't even matter because the banks all vaporized?

I don't think it will happen. I don't think the world powers will allow the United States to hyper inflate. That would affect everyone, from every country. End times of biblical proportions.

Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.

(we'll just keep printing more dollars :eusa_clap

 

[Vigilante]

***The Dollar Vigilante site gave me all sorts of weird code when I hit it this morning. Glad I was on a MAC and not a PC. Proceed with caution. ***

 

[AntiGuru]

I think the least bombastic / sensationalist / tin-foil-hat site in this space is Chris Martenson's PeakProsperity.com which basically always returns to some pretty simple math to demonstrate two things: what we consider "business as usual" is not sustainable; and that the next 20 years will NOT be some linear (or even accelerated) version of the last 20 years.

In other words, great changes are upon us. I think one of the best shock absorbers for this is owning a good set of assets, including income producing businesses, hard assets with no counter-party risk, and have some offshore/out of country protection (real estate in another country, assets out of the reach of cash strapped governments, etc)

 

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[TopChef]

I think we are headed for a big collapse, of this I am quite certain. When is the last time we had a recession? I mean a real one? It seems to me that when ever we were going to have one we just borrowed our way out of it. Right now our economy is like a Forrest that has not had a fire for many decades. Non city folk here will understand that a good fire every now and then is good for the overall health of the Forrest. If you go too long without one, there is a threat of the whole damn thing burning down.

I think we can delay the end game for quite some time at least here in America, namely because when we print money we still have the oil producing nations and Japan supporting the dollar. I too don't want this discussion to become political, but I would say that geopolitically there is a lot of sabre rattling in N. Korea and the Middle East to insure that Japan and the Middle East keeps buying our dollars. If this stops for whatever reason our economy could turn quickly.

I don't believe we will experience hyperinflation. Remember that our economy is run by bankers, and hyperinflation would wipe out the banks. Imagine paying off your entire mortage with a single gold coin. The trajectory that I believe is the most plausible is that we will experience high inflation (approaching 20%) for an extended period of time (remember the seventies?), then there will be the mother of all defaults.

I too read a lot of these sites that predict very rough times ahead. I think we as entrepreneurs must be aware of this and hedge our bets and lives accordingly. But ultimately people will still need things. There will be winners and losers. There will be people who are better adapted for what is to come and there will be people wont adjust. Now is the time to build skills and assets that will stand the test of time. There will be lots of opportunity to either buy a business that is on the ropes for a steep discount or to start your own.

I think rather than try to predict the future, we should look to our history as our guide. The world did not end after the Great Depression, in fact there were many millionaires created during this time period. But the world also could not escape it either. People back then knew something was not quite right with the economy, but it didn't stop people from thinking the economy could never crash. Ultimately the world will do what it does.

 

[richardlearn]

Maybe you've seen or heard of this theory before, but I found it interesting. This is Didier Sornette and his Dragon King theory and methodology for predicting the next collapse. There are some other articles, Q&A, and blogs on the site that help supplement his presentation. He apparently has some literature out as well, though I haven't had a chance to dive in.

Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis | Video on TED.com

 

[AntiGuru]

This is Didier Sornette and his Dragon King theory and methodology for predicting the next collapse.

I had never heard of him until now, looks pretty interesting.

David Stockman in his (exhaustively long but amazing) "Great Deformation" frequently quips that wall st. INSIDERS and policy makers continually reacted to the financial crisis like it was "a contagion that arrived on a comet out of deep space", but in fact it was completely predictable (in fact many people were doing just that in the run up to it).

 

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[socaldude]

Theres a cold financial war going on right now. China and Russia want to get rid of U.S. reserves. As soon as the U.S. dollar loses its monopoly as the world reserve currency it will result in a death spiral of hyperinflation and tremendous wealth destruction.

You wanna know how our monetary system works? Log onto a computer and press a few buttons and WHAM a bank account has 200 million dollars.

 

[InMotion]

Log onto a computer and press a few buttons and WHAM a bank account has 200 million dollars.

URL and login info please?

 

[nickfisher]

URL and login info please?

hahahah CC me that info

 

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[Chopper]

Seriously!? Not sure where to begin... so I'll keep it brief (for now).

Hyper-inflation (as I understand it: exceeding 10% inflation per *month*) is unlikely to happen in the US. The public's general understanding is that once new money is put into the financial system there is no way to reign it in. That used to be the case, but not any more.

 

[HenkHolland]

Yes, it may happen and as MJ has done, make sure that you have´insurance´ for it. And then ignore it.
As people working on their fastlane plans we should not let these kind of predictions interfere with our confidence in our fastlane projects.
That will create paralysis and as Healthstatus mentioned these kind of doom and gloom predictions have been around since the 70´s.

 

[GlobalWealth]

***The Dollar Vigilante site gave me all sorts of weird code when I hit it this morning. Glad I was on a MAC and not a PC. Proceed with caution. ***

Jeff with Dollar Vigilante is a good friend, friendly competitor of mine, and speaker at my conferences. No worries on his business practices. He is very ethical.

Simon with Sovereign Man is a marketing guy with an interesting story, but there are "cracks in the foundation" so to speak. I don't know him personally, but we have many common connections and there are many interesting stories.

 

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[GlobalWealth]

All the government borrowing and not being able to make its budgets balance, plus all the benefits it cant afford. The numbers are right. It cant go on much longer. It seems inevitable.

I tend to agree with Jeff on this subject. I don't necessarily agree with him about the timing, but the trend is clear and the process is already underway.

I was at an event with Jeff and Doug Casey (Casey Research) and we were discussing the timing of the inevitable. We all agree it will happen, but Jeff and Doug both think it will happen much sooner.

My view is that it will take 5-10 years for full collapse, but I'd still rather be 5 years early than one day late. If you are interested you can watch this video where Jeff and I discuss these very topis.

Jeff Berwick Explains The Collapse Of The Dollar - Global Escape Hatch - Panama 2013

I wrote an article that goes to our newsletter subscribers tomorrow about my plan for this too. Like MJ said, I am buying "insurance". But I am not stocking my bunker with beans and ammo.

I'm buying real estate - buying an apartment in Europe this week and negotiating an office building deal in Europe now too. I'm buying precious metals. I'm buying industry leading companies that pay dividends and increase them every year. I'm speculating in mining companies. I'm investing in new private businesses. And I'm investing in my own businesses, as well as starting a new company this month.

 

[Chopper]

OMG! 10 yr treasury rates have doubled. That means interest payments are doubling to what is still a historically low amount... and only for new issues. OMG! It is time to spaz!... The only salvation is to invest in international real estate, because purchasing out of the money call options on the vix is cheap and some how omitted from the discussion altogether. Also strangely omitted is the fact that credit assets generally lose value when markets stabalize and investors become more confident about the economy. But hey somebody who lost a ton of maket cap researched Austrian economics and is speaking at your seminar in Panama so that makes me feel confident that he's trustworthy.

Please.

If you want to sell me on Latvian real estate, sell me on Latvia. Don't waste my time telling me the dollar may collapse which you never bother to spell out what that would even remotely look like. Is it gold going to $3k? the cost of purchasing a euro being equal to $5? A gallon of gas costing $15? Seriously. Could you make your seminar seem less like a scam?

Also, please make the Eastern Europe real estate pitch on some other forum.

Sent from my SPH-L300 using Tapatalk 2

 

[jon.a]

wtf?

OMG! 10 yr treasury rates have doubled. That means interest payments are doubling to what is still a historically low amount... and only for new issues. OMG! It is time to spaz!... The only salvation is to invest in international real estate, because purchasing out of the money call options on the vix is cheap and some how omitted from the discussion altogether. Also strangely omitted is the fact that credit assets generally lose value when markets stabalize and investors become more confident about the economy. But hey somebody who lost a ton of maket cap researched Austrian economics and is speaking at your seminar in Panama so that makes me feel confident that he's trustworthy.

Please.

If you want to sell me on Latvian real estate, sell me on Latvia. Don't waste my time telling me the dollar may collapse which you never bother to spell out what that would even remotely look like. Is it gold going to $3k? the cost of purchasing a euro being equal to $5? A gallon of gas costing $15? Seriously. Could you make your seminar seem less like a scam?

Also, please make the Eastern Europe real estate pitch on some other forum.

Sent from my SPH-L300 using Tapatalk 2

 

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[Chopper]

My apologies. I probably just should have asked a moderator to take down the link to the video GlobalWealth posted.

Sent from my SPH-L300 using Tapatalk 2

 

[ChickenHawk]

I probably just should have asked a moderator to take down the link to the video GlobalWealth posted.

I thought the link was pertinent, and find Global Wealth's updates to be interesting. If you look at his speed (currently 205 MPH) and his number of posts (currently approaching 1,500), he's obviously not some spammer looking to make a quick buck. Speaking only for myself, just because a link might include information on something for sale, it doesn't mean it doesn't doesn't provide value to people interested in that topic.

As for me, I'm interested in what he has to say.

 

[GlobalWealth]

OMG! 10 yr treasury rates have doubled. That means interest payments are doubling to what is still a historically low amount... and only for new issues. OMG!

Not quite doubled, but close. If you understand interest rates you would truly understand the implications of this.

The only salvation is to invest in international real estate, because purchasing out of the money call options on the vix is cheap and some how omitted from the discussion altogether

Not really sure what you are trying to say here. Yes, I think purchasing foreign RE is a great option. I'm doing it myself or else I wouldn't recommend it.

As for options, I am not a net buyer of options as that historically is not an effective strategy for producing income (80% of all equity options expire worthless). But if you think buying out of the money calls on the vix is a good idea, go for it. It just wasn't part of our conversation.

But hey somebody who lost a ton of maket cap researched Austrian economics and is speaking at your seminar in Panama so that makes me feel confident that he's trustworthy.

Your disparaging comments here make no sense. Have you ever met a successful entrepreneur who hasn't experienced failure? Just because Jeff's Canadian company lost value in the markets does not reflect on his business acumen. Actually he now owns several highly successful businesses.

I don't really understand your negative comments here, but I suppose everyone is entitled to their opinions.

If you want to sell me on Latvian real estate, sell me on Latvia.

I'm not trying to sell you on Latvian real estate. Or Latvia.

Don't waste my time telling me the dollar may collapse which you never bother to spell out what that would even remotely look like.

Do your own homework if that appeals to you. The point of the video was not to fully educate someone on dollar collapse. The dollar is collapsing though. It has lost 96% of its value in the past 100 years. It's called inflation. But events that have transpired since 2008 will significantly accelerate this process. It's already happening. Just look at food prices over the past 4 years.

Is it gold going to $3k?

Yes, and higher.

the cost of purchasing a euro being equal to $5?

Not likely as the ECB is doing similar things as the Fed, BOJ, and BOE. All fiat currency is falling in value relative to hard assets.

A gallon of gas costing $15?

Yes, no question. Gasoline already costs about $10/g in parts of Europe.

Could you make your seminar seem less like a scam?

You can be critical of my comments all you like, but I draw the line at this comment. I am not promoting my conference here. You clearly are not our target market. I have been on this forum for many years. Check the stats.

My conference speakers are very high quality. Each one of them are well respected business people in their industry. You comments are quite childish. I have to assume you are a very young and naive. Most likely a college student or recent grad. Most likely not running a real business yet.

Also, please make the Eastern Europe real estate pitch on some other forum.

Again, I did not pitch E. Europe real estate. I posted the video because the original post discussed Dollar Vigilante. I thought the video of Jeff and I may be interesting to some people who follow this thread. Clearly it wasn't interesting for you. No problem. But leave your personal attacks at the door.

 

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[Mike Kavanagh]

My commentary on this subject:

• Rapid deflation

• Massive increase in interest rates and taxes

• Social security collapse

• Insert some random fee or tax to take over SS, but no ROI at 72(not sure if that is the current age or not)

How I am preparing/preparing in the future:

• Silver - Supposedly less of this than gold. Can't believe everything you hear though. Junk silver as well (pre-65' quarter,dimes and nickels).

• Asset relocation - Once I can afford a place outside of the U.S. I will buy one or more apartments, leave one as a personal address.

• Gain citizenship in another country - easier to leave

• Teaching myself skills like wilderness survival and auto repair just in case it really gets bad

• Becoming more fit/healthy exercise+diet

• Learning how to cook edible meals without killing myself

• Ambidextrous bow shooting

Not worried about guns and gold. To much of a shortage on either.
Brick of .22 cal ammo(500 rounds) goes for about $100 on the street, 45acp goes closer to $2 a round, as well as .223. No bueno.

 

[GlobalWealth]

Rapid deflation

This is the only point you make that I would adamantly disagree with. Now maybe you are referring to the deflation of asset prices? With that, I could possibly agree. But inflation by definition is when the money supply increases faster than the rate of productivity.

Inflation is exactly what is happening now. The result is price inflation, which is also occurring.

Silver - Supposedly less of this than gold. Can't believe everything you hear though. Junk silver as well (pre-65' quarter,dimes and nickels).


Asset relocation - Once I can afford a place outside of the U.S. I will buy one or more apartments, leave one as a personal address.


Gain citizenship in another country - easier to leave


Teaching myself skills like wilderness survival and auto repair just in case it really gets bad


Becoming more fit/healthy exercise+diet


Learning how to cook edible meals without killing myself


Ambidextrous bow shooting

Silver - yes. I would also consider gold as it is a better store of value for larger amounts. Platinum/palladium also a good option.

Asset relocation - absolutely. We call it geo-political diversification, or geo-arbitrage. We do recommend the multi-flag strategy: real estate in one country, registered company offshore, banking in multiple countries, precious metals stored offshore, etc.

2nd citizenship - no question - yes, esp. if you are American. This is the worst time in US history to be an American for business purposes. Opening a bank account, merchant account, investment account, etc. outside the US gets harder every day. Having a 2nd passport opens up many doors.

 

[Mike Kavanagh]

Rapid deflation - Kind of like what happened in the first (Great) depression. However I think there will be great amount of market manipulation involved in achieving this.

Money becoming more valuable but harder to get. Like if everyone went and pulled every single dollar out of the bank and pensions at the same time, just to survive or hoard it just in case.

Though the hyper-inflation scenario is more likely. It would cause mass-hysteria.

Edit: What do you think about bitcoin? I might convert some money over to that in the near future...

What I would like to see is a (20-30year) bond program with liberal interest rates to take back money and re-introduction of a precious-metal standard to cap inflation. This would likely be a twenty-year process in itself.

The hyper-deflation scenario idea came to me in video I watched a few months back. Like the government stopping 90% of it's social programs and increased taxation to pay back foreign debt. All the weight coming down on the common man.

For some reason, I can't find this video.

 

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[GlobalWealth]

Rapid deflation - Kind of like what happened in the first (Great) depression. However I think there will be great amount of market manipulation involved in achieving this.

Rapid deflation was one of the biggest causes of the great depression leading into '29. The fed was selling their stock of (*edit- I corrected from 'buying' to 'selling' - late night snafu) treasuries effectively reducing the money supply. This was complete market manipulation.

But post-'29, it was inflation, with massive amounts of money printing.

Again, I think you referring to asset price deflation. That is not the same thing.

What do you think about bitcoin? I might convert some money over to that in the near future...

I am not terribly knowledgeable about this. Probably only enough to be dangerous. With that said, I don't really like bitcoin. It is backed by nothing. It is a fiat currency. Of course it is not controlled by govt and cannot be inflated, but regardless its fiat not specie.

 

[LibertyForMe]

It is a fiat currency. Of course it is not controlled by govt and cannot be inflated, but regardless its fiat not specie.

I agree, this is why I don't trust bitcoin. The only thing backing it is anonymity and privacy, which are not tangible things.

 

[Mike Kavanagh]

asset price deflation

Like houses being worthless, stocks being worthless, etc? Could you elaborate more on this?

 

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[LibertyForMe]

I think that to understand the topic, you really need a relatively firm grasp of the monetary system and how the monetary supply works.

An interest rate is simply the price to rent money. It is a price like anything else is, except for some reason it is ok for the Fed to manipulate the price of money even though everyone knows price fixing is a bad practice.

When the Fed spends all this money on QE, they are pumping money into the system which effectively makes money cheaper since there is more of it; aka lowering the interest rate. Ideally, interest rates would adjust naturally based on the preference of consumers. If people are saving more money, aka putting more money in the bank and making it available for investment, interest rates would decline. If people are investing a lot and demanding lots of money for projects, interest rates would rise.

Asset price deflation would occur naturally (and be a good thing) if the system wasn't manipulated and consumers started saving more money. This would lower interest rates and make capital investment cheaper, and prices would come down over time. This would benefit the savers in the economy.

The reason why I don't think asset deflation will occur is because something would have to happen that caused a massive amount of dollars to disappear, and Washington pretty much believes that monetary contraction is a crime.

I could talk more, but my wife is haranguing me to go to bed...interesting stuff though!

 

[Jake]

I agree, this is why I don't trust bitcoin. The only thing backing it is anonymity and privacy, which are not tangible things.

Bitcoin is trustless. It's anonymity tends to be overstated and it's backing is the global user base, businesses that accept it, and the entrepreneurs that are building the bridges into / out of the system and additional layers on top of the protocol.

Coinbase for instance, allows any company to accept bitcoin and immediately converts it to $USD at 0% cost (for the 1st $1million and 1% there after) It's cheaper than accepting credit cards or paypal.

Edit: When I say it is trustless I mean that it requires absolutely no-trust to receive bitcoin. The payments are irrevocable and when you send money you do not need to trust anyone to send it on your behalf. Middlemen who block payments, take fees, and give horrible currency conversion fees, are cut out of the equation. It's open source and therefore requires no trust