Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[WJK]

Yes it's a huge prediction, but it isn't mine. I subscribe to a technical analysis service, and the main analysist has been warning that a MAJOR market top and correction has been coming for years. Not a permabear "it's all going to collapse," but "SPX is going to 5000+ before it goes back down to 1000" back when 5000 seemed wild.

The charting predictions are based on price action only, according to Elliot Wave theory, which uses Fibonacci factors to predict levels. Below is the monthly chart. We don't have confirmation of a major top yet.

View attachment 69798



Primary reason is because the price action is very bullish. Their AI and robotics programs, and Elon's history are conceptually supportive. But price action rules.



Yes, it's a very bearish position. Consistent with the forecast that the general market will drop to levels we haven't seen for 15 years.

There is money to be made in bear markets, even without shorting. Bear market rallies often move faster than bull market rallies. And there will always be individual stocks that perform well.

But the days of "just put it in an index fund and forget about it" are over for me, at least for now.

Yes, there are always people who say that the bottom is going to fall out and we're all going to go barefoot, hungry, and shortly be dead. It sounds like I'm a little bit older than you. I've seen the ups and downs over the years. I've seen people sell everything that they have, to sit on the top of a mountain, waiting for that moment -- and then they've had to come down from that peak and start their lives over again. I have learned to protect what I have to a reasonable point. But I don't want to be with those people on that mountain, sitting on a rock waiting for doomsday -- only to find that the sun comes up for another day.

Here's what I've learned over my years: I've made fortunes and lost fortunes during good times and bad. Each time I've had to rebuild it from scratch, I've done it faster and easier. Now I keep my ear to the ground and I really, really listen to that heartbeat. The experts beating on their chest is only one factor out there. I can analyze the information myself and make a good, educated guess. I study the past for similar patterns and trends. Mostly, I watch things as they unfold and listen to the rumblings in the human herd. People act like an animal herd. Most move and turn directions together. They have cycles and predictable paths. I cannot tell the exact moment they will change directions since they do it quite suddenly. I just know when it is getting close to time for that turn. And that's good enough for me. I don't have to hit the exact peak or valley -- being close to being right usually wins the race for me.

Yes, I'm a contrarian. I moved opposite from the herd.

 

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[Antifragile]

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