Let's Make a Deal

[Amail]

For those of you who don't know Let's Make a Deal, it was a show in the 70's (mostly, I think) where the host Monty Hall would go to random people in the audience and ask them if they'd like some kind of gift. $50, maybe. Then he'd say "Or, would you like to choose what's behind door #1?", which was on the stage. Sometimes they took the offer and got "A New Caaaaaarrr!" or more often, something worthless.

So, Let's Make a Deal.

Hi, I'm Monty Hall, thanks for being on the show. I'm going to make you an offer. Before you are three doors. Two of the doors each conceal a goat, and one of the doors conceals "A New Caaaaarrrr!". You don't know what's behind door #1, 2, or 3, but I do. Go ahead and pick a door.

Now that you've made your pick, don't open the door just yet. I'm going to open one of the doors you didn't pick to reveal..... a goat. Now that you've seen what's behind one of the doors you did not choose, I'm going to offer you the chance to change your mind and choose the other door.

Would you?

Why or why not?

 

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[theag]

I would stay with the door I chose first. The only thing that happened is that my odds improved, but they're 50/50, no matter which door I choose.

Hope I understood it right

 

[Amail]

Hint: Almost everybody gets this wrong.

 

[Amail]

Another hint: The odds are not 50/50

 

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[1PercentStreet]

Yes I would switch.
Your odds are 1/3 if you don't switch and 2/3 if you do switch.

 

[Amail]

Anyone care to refute that?

 

[thinslicer]

So weird.............I had a dream about this last night and woke up with remembering it and thinking about making game app to teach kids math with similar logic games, but yeah what a coincidence that I see your thread today hah

I already know the answer, it was explained in a movie, forgot which one though, just remember an older guy testing a young guy to hire him or something like that....

Dont know if I should post this, take out the fun, but I figure people can just google anyway, so think about it on your own to have fun, then Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

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[thinslicer]

Oh the movie was 21, 21 (2008 film) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Great movie btw. For those who knows poker, Andy Bloch, was part of the MIT blackjack team..

 

[socaldude]

This classic statistics problem is GREAT example of how sometimes mathematical models sometimes don't match our cognitive model.

As Fastlaners Financial Statistics is a MUST for financial models and risk management.

 

[1PercentStreet]

Anyone care to refute that?

I can do an in-depth explanation regarding what I wrote but too busy at the moment. Might do it later.

 

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[Rawr]

I believe this one is on the employment test for CBOE.


To get the right answer, imagine 100 doors.

 

[thinslicer]

"21" explains the Monty Hall problem - YouTube
Youtube comment:
(i)Determining the probability of winning the car by "always switching" is different to the (ii) probability of winning the car “given the player has picked Door 1 and the host has opened one of the goat doors (say door 3)”
The answer to the 1st question (i) is 2/3 (as explained by the video)
The answer to the 2nd question (ii) is different: the conditional probability that the car is behind Door 1 or Door 2 given the host has opened Door 3 is always 1/2.

This classic statistics problem is GREAT example of how sometimes mathematical models sometimes don't match our cognitive model.

As Fastlaners Financial Statistics is a MUST for financial models and risk management.

Similar to poker, financial markets, trading, business execution, etc. you need to think more about the execution and weigh it more heavy than the result...
For example:
In poker, when AK vs 89, AK will win out around 62% to 38%, the expected value of these hands preflop, but 89 can definitely win in the short term if the board is 89235 for example or if the board is 567AK, so all in preflop in 10 hands the 89 could win all of them but after 1000 hands or 10,000 hands, AK will surely win close to 62% of the time.

So in your fastlane business, you could be doing something right with good positive expected value, and you think that it's right, but you still don't get the result you want because of timing, circumstances, "luck," opportunities missed, etc then you need to figure if what you doing is really right and if you figure that it is then you just need TO KEEP DOING IT, because over the long term you will WIN.......

PS. you can also change to doing something with higher expected value......CENTS....:coolgleamA:
PSS. sorry if this post is semi-weird/convoluted/slightly off-topic, it's kind of like a self-reminder that sometimes I need to ignore the results and focus on doing right things and be patient and keep doing them...

 

[1PercentStreet]

Just found this online

 

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[Amail]

Got some smart cookies here! This so often trips people up. Well done.

 

[thinslicer]

Just found this online

So like business, the answer is more clear when you do simulations and work on your idea. So time should be spend on doing more than planning and thinking, execution is key! but TMF readers know this, just a friendly reminder..

 

[theag]

Now I feel stupid :welldone:

 

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[1PercentStreet]

Hint: Almost everybody gets this wrong.

I thought the point of the forum was to not be like everybody
Should come live on One Percent St.

 

[The-J]

I'd take a goat, play the game again, get a goat of the opposite gender, and mate them so I can charge people to play this game with me: not to mention having lots of goat milk, goat cheese and goat meat.

Or am I overthinking this?

 

[socaldude]

I'd take a goat, play the game again, get a goat of the opposite gender, and mate them so I can charge people to play this game with me: not to mention having lots of goat milk, goat cheese and goat meat.

Or am I overthinking this?

Or you can take it Fastlane and have the goats eat/cut other people's grass or front lawn as a source of passive income . I know lame; I just had to say it.

 

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[The-J]

Or you can take it Fastlane and have the goats eat/cut other people's grass or front lawn as a source of passive income . I know lame; I just had to say it.

Billy Goat Landscaping: 'We're not 'kid'-ding around! Quality so good, you'll come baa-aa-ack for more!'

...why, Fastlane Forum...

 

[JJ]

Am I understanding this correctly?

Because I probably chose the wrong door the first time, I have a better chance of getting the car if I change my decision.

 

[JAJT]

Funny - when I was reading your first post all I could think of was the Monty Hall problem. It quickly became apparent that was the purpose of the post

BoxedinThought - yes.

You have a 2 out of 3 chance to pick a goat on your first guess. This is a 66% or 2/3 chance.

Then the host reveals a door that FOR CERTAIN has a goat.

So if you were MOST LIKELY to hit the first goat on your first guess, and the host just told you absolutely where the second goat is, it makes total sense to swap.

 

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[JJ]

That's an interesting way to think. I like it.