Las Vegas Real Estate Market....

[hakrjak]

I did some Trulia searches today on Las Vegas, with a minimum of a 3+ bedroom Single Family Home, and a Max Price of $100,000....

The result was 75 pages of matches, which is 75 more pages than what I received when I did a similar search about 2 yrs ago.

Check out some of these insane deals I found:

7363 Silurian Street, Las Vegas NV 89139 - Trulia
3 br 2 ½ ba 1,211 sqft built in 2006! -- $99k

4101 Lighthouse Avenue, Las Vegas NV 89110 - Trulia
3 br 2 ba 1,286 sqft Single-Family Home built in 96, nice stucco home -- $94.9k

http://www.trulia.com/property/1067074241-5157-Bellaria-Pl-Las-Vegas-NV-89156
3 br 2 ½ ba 1,512 sqft Single-Family Home -- Gorgeous stucco built in 2006 -- $78k

I could go on and on....

These prices even rival the cheap houses I can buy here in Colorado Springs -- and Vegas is way more desireable of a place to live for most retirees that want to live in the Sun Belt, so I know they are screaming deals.

What do you guys think?

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

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[kidgas]

It certainly looks promising on the surface. Other than gambling, what industry is in Las Vegas to support the population? What is the housing supply vs population growth? Will the economy impact the gaming industry?

 

[hakrjak]

It certainly looks promising on the surface. Other than gambling, what industry is in Las Vegas to support the population? What is the housing supply vs population growth? Will the economy impact the gaming industry?

The old people / retirement industry Something like 100,000 people a month move into Las Vegas. *shrug*

- Hakrjak

 

[snowbank]

hakrjak,

any idea what those places are renting for?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Out here it is worse, there are houses in Queen Creek (40 min SE of Phx airport) ... 2400 square feet, 2 years old, on the golf course, granite countertops, 1/2 acre ... 89,000. The prices are getting irresistible.

 

[snowbank]

Out here it is worse, there are houses in Queen Creek (40 min SE of Phx airport) ... 2400 square feet, 2 years old, on the golf course, granite countertops, 1/2 acre ... 89,000. The prices are getting irresistible.

What!?!? Wow. Is that any type of area that's desirable to live in?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

What!?!? Wow. Is that any type of area that's desirable to live in?

Sure, if you like living in bumblef*ck ... work at home, and don't mind traveling 15 miles to get groceries. It's not a bad area, just way the heck out there, relatively speaking.

 

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[biophase]

The old people / retirement industry Something like 100,000 people a month move into Las Vegas. *shrug*

- Hakrjak

Actually the statistic for Phoenix, AZ is 10,000 people/mo for the past few years and it ain't helping the market here. I don't think that Vegas has population growth higher than Phoenix.

 

[biophase]

I've seen a decent deal on a 3/2 1500sf house in Avondale asking $89,000 that rents for $1,000/mo. It will definitely cashflow!

 

[SteveO]

Perhaps I am completely wrong but.... I just convinced Jesse that the right time to buy is now. Houses are sitting and banks are dealing. I hooked him and Lauren up with an agent that is a good friend of mine. They are now in contract on a house in Scottsdale for 134K.

 

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[andviv]

in scottsdale?
$134k?

no way!

I guess it is time to start looking....

 

[hakrjak]

Actually the statistic for Phoenix, AZ is 10,000 people/mo for the past few years and it ain't helping the market here. I don't think that Vegas has population growth higher than Phoenix.

The #'s jump around a lot -- I know Vegas was #1 for over a year at one point. Only data I could find online was kinda old though, from 2007:

10 Fastest Growing U.S. Cities | RealEstateRama

The 10 biggest gainers:
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas: 162,250
[COLOR=blue! important][COLOR=blue! important]Atlanta[/COLOR][/COLOR]-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.: 151,063
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.: 132,513
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas: 120,544
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.: 86,660
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C.: 66,724
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.: 66,231
Austin-Round Rock, Texas: 65,880
[COLOR=blue! important][COLOR=blue! important]Las [COLOR=blue! important]Vegas[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]-Paradise, Nev.: 59,165
San Antonio, Texas: 53,925
The 10 fast-growing metro areas
Palm Coast, Fla.: 7.2 percent
St. George, Utah: 5.1 percent
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.: 4.7 percent
[COLOR=blue! important][COLOR=blue! important]Gainesville[/COLOR][/COLOR], Ga.: 4.5 percent
Austin-Round Rock, Texas: 4.3 percent
[COLOR=blue! important][COLOR=blue! important]Myrtle [COLOR=blue! important]Beach[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]-Conway-N.C.-Myrtle Beach, S.C.: 4.2 percent
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C.: 4.2 percent
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.: 4 percent
Grand Junction, Colo.: 3.7 percent
Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.: 3.7 percent

Like you said though -- sometimes a booming population doesn't translate to higher housing prices. My guess would be that if an area is way overbuilt like Vegas or Phoenix, you'd see this trend like you are describing.

- Hakrjak

 

[hakrjak]

Out here it is worse, there are houses in Queen Creek (40 min SE of Phx airport) ... 2400 square feet, 2 years old, on the golf course, granite countertops, 1/2 acre ... 89,000. The prices are getting irresistible.

Wow -- would they rent? I'd like to pick one up to pay itself off by the time I'm ready to retire!

- Hakrjak

 

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[hakrjak]

Does anybody here have a good investor-friendly Realtor in Las Vegas?

 

[biophase]

in scottsdale?
$134k?

no way!

I guess it is time to start looking....

If you want a retirement home in Scottsdale, I'd suggest a small 800-1000sf condo in a nice area for $50,000-90,000 (short sale). Taxes are super cheap ($200-$300 a year), only variable expense is the HOAs.

 

[imirza]

Speaking of the Phoenix RE market, I ran into a bunch of townhouses 1000 sq ft 3/2 selling for $30k that rent for atleast $800 a month. Assoc fees and taxes are $200. So figure $600 net. Thats still a 24% cash on cash return. Funny thing is all these townhouses are investor owned mainly out of state especially CA. They bought them for $100k-$130k back in 2005-2006.

A lot of stuff here in Phoenix is selling for below replacement cost. I was speaking to a friend in the construction business and he tells me that the cheapest homes ( think KB homes) cost $80/sq ft to build. So if you can purchase a 1000 sq ft. property for under $80k , you are mostly likely purchasing it for under replacement cost. You are essentially getting the land for free.

RE: VEGAS - Anyone looked at condos on the strip ? There is one condo project, the Platinum which is right off the Strip and I have seen units selling for $200k that sold for $450k + back in early 2007. Condos around the strip have easily lost 50-70% of their value in the last 2 years.

 

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[unicon]

In 2003 on a motorcycle ride through Vegas/Kingman/Laughlin we visited some people living outside of Kingman, Az (15 minutes) living in a development off route 66 called Mountain Vista Ranches with a golf coarse in the center of it. It was the only development at that time in the middle of nowhere but close to Kingman with moderate temperatures. 40 acre parcel were going for $20,000 which were actually in the development behind the new houses which were selling for around 95k - 110k for new 1400 sq ft houses.

I guess these parcels went up but may have dropped back down, just saw a Craigs list advertisement of a guy in the same area wanting to trade 40 acres for classic car stating the value was approx $100k down from over $400k. This was alot different then the $20k prices I witnessed in 2003 which I thought had possibilities especially in the Mountain Vista Ranche development.

 

[hakrjak]

RE: VEGAS - Anyone looked at condos on the strip ? There is one condo project, the Platinum which is right off the Strip and I have seen units selling for $200k that sold for $450k + back in early 2007. Condos around the strip have easily lost 50-70% of their value in the last 2 years.

I have not looked at the condo and loft market too closely because it's been my experience that no matter what the rest of the market does, these units still manage to gouge their buyers for a considerably higher than market price. If you could get something with a great strip view for cheap though, I'd suggest locking it up while the getting is good -- Personally I'd prefer to have some SFR's that will rent with good cashflow. I found one right by Nellis Air Force Base which I think would stay rented easily and it's a 3 bed 2.5 bath for $75k

- Hakrjak

 

[hatterasguy]

I keep telling my friends who have the means to buy that now is the time! Everything is cheap, I'm still in amazment of all the good deals out their.

The real good ones are going to evaporate fast too, when the market starts to turn. In my area the nice $200k-$250k houses are still selling very fast. When the market starts to get better those are going to dry up, than you will be stuck paying $300k, or getting something that needs tons of work.

 

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[andviv]

I keep telling my friends who have the means to buy that now is the time! Everything is cheap, I'm still in amazment of all the good deals out their.

Why buy now, if the prices are still expected to come down more?

That is what is driving (or actually killing) this market.

 

[randallg99]

Why buy now, if the prices are still expected to come down more?

That is what is driving (or actually killing) this market.

this is the camp I am in.... the RE market unwinding has to continue until liquidity loosens up. the irony that LIBOR is incredibly low and banks are not lending has people pulling their hair out

it would be very prudent and wise to make sure all offers are based on extremely high cash flow metrics and to take in the consideration of risk...

must factor in RISK.

I know, it's a bad, bad, bad word....

unemployment data correlates highly with the renters market so be prepared in your calculations to carry the notes/costs if need be. How much are you willing to pay for the property relies heavily on how much risk you are willing to assume

 

[hakrjak]

You could be right. I think it depends on area though. I know that whenever there is a smoking deal out here in Colorado Springs, there are always 10 different offers on it almost immediately.

Since my experience in Vegas / Phoenix is just word of mouth, I'd have to rely on a trustworthy Realtor to steer me to the good deals down in those areas... And those 2 words don't usually go in the same sentence haha..

- Hakrjak

 

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[hatterasguy]

Why buy now, if the prices are still expected to come down more?

That is what is driving (or actually killing) this market.

Who cares? If your not planning on selling in the near future it doesn't matter. Its impossible to predict the bottom; prices could go up!

As I always say a good deal is a good deal. So what if it drops another 10%, you will more than make it up when you sell 10-20 years from now.

All I know now is that property is cheap, and money is cheap. So now is the time to get greedy as hell. If it gets cheaper in the future great, get even more greedy. If it doesn't well, than it was good that you bought!

 

[LaurenO]

Perhaps I am completely wrong but.... I just convinced Jesse that the right time to buy is now. Houses are sitting and banks are dealing. I hooked him and Lauren up with an agent that is a good friend of mine. They are now in contract on a house in Scottsdale for 134K.

Actually that house deal and one subsequent deal have fallen through.:smxE: We're back to the drawing board but still looking!

 

[Bilgefisher]

Today rates were climbing again. I locked in for one of my mortgages. Actually because of the yoyo with mortgage rates, one of my rentals has a lower rate then my personal house, another is almost a point higher then my personal. Go figure.

That fannie mae change to 75% LTV refinance is also hurting folks a bit.

 

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[unicon]

This post got me interested in looking outside my area, after looking at over a thousand vegas properties over the internet with a map by my side prices are on a downward trend and for a 3 bed 2 ba home standard.

Saw houses from $40k to homes to 20 million, very unusual for only 1.4 million residences (population). All these homes are relatively new from a boom that fueled relentless building. However the number of vacant houses and empty pools is staggering (from pictures).

Yet you have extreme opulance in specific areas, saw a gutted house on golf coarse with 7000 square feet with counters, fixtures, and plumbing removed as if vandalized and bank attempting to sell for approx 1.5 million down from a sale in 2006 of $2.7 million. This is a glimpse of a bigger picture. The shell is an albatross - the albatross factor. The bank should be liquidating for $80 per foot if lucky.

My deep feeling at looking at this theme is that there is a reason they call it sin city. Something is clearly amiss not just from a jobs standpoint and the overbuilding. Its appeal is warm weather for retires and significantly lower prices than California on their border, no income tax, etc.

Without actually visiting the neighborhoods personally, it would seem these prices would be propped up even minimally but the sheer numbers of vacant properties indicate it was the speculative capital of the US because of the sheer volume of building of planned communities with homes where 3 bathrooms are the norm!

I am seriously thinking of buying something with petty cash to look into the area over the next few years although I believe the culture is more than just a recessionary drag!

The valuations are decent for a predictable rental market, the question is - is what type of rental market exists?

 

[biophase]

Who cares? If your not planning on selling in the near future it doesn't matter. Its impossible to predict the bottom; prices could go up!

As I always say a good deal is a good deal. So what if it drops another 10%, you will more than make it up when you sell 10-20 years from now.

All I know now is that property is cheap, and money is cheap. So now is the time to get greedy as hell. If it gets cheaper in the future great, get even more greedy. If it doesn't well, than it was good that you bought!

I think that it's very dangerous to believe that in 10-20 years whatever you buy today will be worth more than what you paid for it. I think that this attitude is what got most people in trouble except that their timeframe was 3-5 years in the future instead of 10-20.

Real estate does not always go up. Purchasing poor real estate just because it's cheap doesn't make it a good deal. You have to look at the big picture.

Examples:

Friend of my dad's bought 40 acres in California in 1975 for $100,000. I took a look at it in 2004 when the market was going crazy. They wanted to give it away. Still not worth it, 40 acres in the desert in 1975 is still 40 acres in the desert in 2009. This is up near Lancaster.

Friend of mine bought a condo in Houston in 1990-92 for $75,000. Sold in 2004 for $65,000. Today still worth about $65,000.

The condo I bought in Scottsdale in 2004. Built in 1980, sold for $60,000. Sold again in 1994 for $30,000. I paid $72,000 in 2004. Sold in 2006 for $165,000. Worth $120,000 in 2009. Person who bought in 1980 had a 14 year timeframe and still lost $30,000.

Real estate doesn't always go up. Even during boom times, some real estate won't move.

 

[hakrjak]

This is true, although I do know a lot of guys who made a lot of money in the short term off of appreciation, most of them fell a$$-backwards into it and didn't even know what they were doing.

The only appreciation I have ever got off a property I have owned (And I've been in this business now for 8 years or whatever) -- has been appreciation I forced by rehabbing the property to make it the best house in the neighborhood. You always have that option if things are stagnant in your area - just be sure to buy at 70% of FMV or less.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

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[andviv]

Actually that house deal and one subsequent deal have fallen through.:smxE: We're back to the drawing board but still looking!

Why did they fall through? financing not available? couldn't agree the price with the bank? somebody else offered more than you? properties did not pass inspection? appraisal?

I'm trying to understand the current market conditions... so it would be great if you can mention what happened in these cases.

 

[hatterasguy]

I think that it's very dangerous to believe that in 10-20 years whatever you buy today will be worth more than what you paid for it. I think that this attitude is what got most people in trouble except that their timeframe was 3-5 years in the future instead of 10-20.

Real estate does not always go up. Purchasing poor real estate just because it's cheap doesn't make it a good deal. You have to look at the big picture.

Examples:

Friend of my dad's bought 40 acres in California in 1975 for $100,000. I took a look at it in 2004 when the market was going crazy. They wanted to give it away. Still not worth it, 40 acres in the desert in 1975 is still 40 acres in the desert in 2009. This is up near Lancaster.

Friend of mine bought a condo in Houston in 1990-92 for $75,000. Sold in 2004 for $65,000. Today still worth about $65,000.

The condo I bought in Scottsdale in 2004. Built in 1980, sold for $60,000. Sold again in 1994 for $30,000. I paid $72,000 in 2004. Sold in 2006 for $165,000. Worth $120,000 in 2009. Person who bought in 1980 had a 14 year timeframe and still lost $30,000.

Real estate doesn't always go up. Even during boom times, some real estate won't move.

Well I was talking about a good deal and not trying to time the market. Like most of us I don't bank on appreciation because you can't predict it. Unless its forced...